Rich Rodriguez’s recruiting for the 2010 class has caused, to say the least, some consternation among Michigan faithful. Witness the cause and effect:

Cause: Michigan's 2010 recruiting class (image swiped from Rivals)

Effect: Run for your lives!!!!

Do the panic-stricken stick figures have a point, or is this much o noes about nothing? Today I’ll take a look at the three-star and below recruits from previous Michigan recruiting classes, and tomorrow I’ll take a look at the same caliber recruits Rich Rodriguez pulled in during his time at West Virginia. Will this tell us much about what to expect from these 2010 recruits? I have no idea. However, it’s the peak of offseason boredom, so it’s time to leave no story stone unturned. I’m using data from Rivals, which extends back to 2002, with a big assist from Mike DeSimone’s recruiting page. First, a list of the three-star and below recruits at Michigan from 2002-2006 (a point at which we can somewhat reasonably project a player’s career), with players who started at least five career games listed in bold:

2002 (10 three-star and below recruits/20 total recruits): Willis Barringer, Rondell Biggs, Mark Bihl, David Harris, Rueben Riley, Brian Thompson, Tom Berishaj, Kevin Murphy (3*), Greg Cooper, Jacob Stewart (N.R.)

2003 (4/17): Anton Campbell, Garrett Rivas, Patrick Sharrow (3*), Brandent Englemon (2*)

2004 (9/22): Jamar Adams, Mike Hart, Charles Stewart, John Thompson, Roger Allison, Keston Cheathem, Jeremy Ciulla, Grant DeBenedictis (3*), Marques Walton (2*)

2005 (12/23): Brandon Logan, Tim McAvoy, Zoltan Mesko, Mark Ortmann, LaTerryal Savoy, Carson Butler, Jason Forcier, Chris McLaurin, Chris Richards, Johnny Sears, Mister Simpson (3*), Andre Criswell (2*)

2006 (7/19): Greg Banks, Obi Ezeh, John Ferrera, Quintin Patella, Quintin Woods (3*), David Cone, Bryan Wright (2*)

Totals here: 42 three-star or below players, 16 starters. Two of those 16 starters are kickers/punters, and those guys never get above three-stars anyway, so 14/39 (striking Rivas, Zoltan, and Bryan Wright from the list) is probably a more telling figure. It seems a pretty safe bet at this point that none of the 2006 class besides Ezeh will see significant starting time (again, barring Wright), so I can say with a fair amount of confidence that for the 2002-2006 recruiting classes, 36% of three-star or below recruits ended up starting. Let’s look a little closer now.

Position Breakdown of three-star and below recruits:

QB: 2 (Forcier, Cone)
TB: 2 (Hart, Simpson)
FB: 3 (Thompson, Allison, Criswell)
WR: 1 (Savoy)
TE: 2 (Murphy, Butler)
OL: 8 (Bihl, Riley, Berishaj, Sharrow, Ciulla, DeBenedictis, McAvoy, Ortmann)
DL: 5 (Biggs, Walton, McLaurin, Banks, Ferrera)
LB: 6 (Harris, Logan, Thompson, Ezeh, Patella, Woods)
CB: 4 (Cooper, Cheathem, Richards, Sears)
S: 6 (Barringer, J. Stewart, Campbell, Englemon, Adams, C. Stewart)
K/P: 3 (Rivas, Mesko, Wright)

One thing I notice immediately is the amount of offensive linemen, which isn’t a surprise considering how many you need and the fact that they tend to be the toughest recruits to scout. Unless you’re USC, you usually are filling out every class with a couple three-star o-linemen. The other glaring point, to me, is that the safety position is heavily represented here, which seems strange for a position with only two starting spots. Then I began to think about our safety play over the last several years. This begins to make sense.

The third thing to notice is that Michigan has never recruited three-star players heavily at the skill position, something that Rodriguez is doing quite a bit of right now. The 2010 class alone already has three times as many three-star and below wideouts as Lloyd pulled in during a five-year period (four times if you count Tony Drake as a slot). A large part of this, obviously, is Michigan’s need for more receivers under Rodriguez’s system. The fact that we have two four-star wideouts committed really makes this an area of little concern for me: we need receivers, and we need a lot of them — it’s hard to pull in five four-star wideouts per year. Rich Rod is also trying to fill out an area of the roster that needed fewer players under the old system. Hence, all the three-star receivers. We’re clearly doing fine at quarterback, what with Forcier, Robsinson, and Gardner. Running back is not at panic level need yet, with Shaw already looking good, Vincent Smith impressing early, and Fitzgerald Toussaint coming in as a highly-regarded four-star. Hopkins isn’t a bad pickup, either, and could still reach four-star status upon further evaluation. Chill out, stick figures.

Better.

The big concern, however, is defense. Marvin Robinson, despite the coaching staff and Robinson both saying he’s coming in as a safety, seems destined for linebacker (or spinner/deathbacker/whatever the hell Stevie Brown is playing). There is still a glaring need at safety, as well as defensive tackle. Unless Ken Wilkins eats Drew Dileo, I don’t see a DT in that class, and right now Michigan is thin even on offers at the position. In this case, the stick figures may have a point. Commence freaking out.

I pray this is photoshopped, for fear of laughing at something I shouldn't.

It’s tough to draw conclusions out of this right now, especially with the recruiting process still ongoing (and with Pace and Wilkins, among others, still candidates for a fourth star). At the moment, I have no problem with Rodriguez’s recruiting strategy on offense. On defense, however, he needs to fill a lot of holes, especially along the line. At this point, a three-star DT may not do the job for Michigan, who has Mike Martin, Will Campbell, a Canadian guy and a converted fullback as the entirety of their depth at the position. Yes, we’re implementing a three-man front of sorts under Greg Robinson, but that’s still mighty thin.

More on this will come tomorrow, as I look at the success of Rodriguez in developing three-star and below talent at West Virginia.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2006 Recruiting Class
• The Foundation: A Look at the 2008 Recruiting Class
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Wolverines on the Web Watches People Run
• Putting Michigan’s Recruiting Class in Context