Goalie Bryan Hogan will have to stay healthy for Michigan to live up to lofty preseason expectations.

After a pair of exhibition victories this past weekend, Michigan’s hockey team is set to open the regular season on Friday in Anchorage, Alaska. In preparation for the season, I fired a few questions at Michael Spath, who covers Michigan hockey for The Wolverine.

AA: What do you think the greatest strength of this team will be? Weakness?

MS: The greatest strength should be the defense. When you bring back two seniors in Chris Summers and Steve Kampfer who have played a ton, and you bring back juniors in Tristin Llewellyn and Chad Langlais and a pair of sophomores in Brandon Burlon and Greg Pateryn you’ve got six experienced guys who are all very talented. Summers could be the best defenseman in the CCHA. Generally he hasn’t gotten that kind of respect yet — he wasn’t voted first- or second-team all-conference before the year began — but you watch him play and he’s got everything you want. He’s a great skater, he understands the offensive game, has a good shot and ability around the net, and in the defensive zone he’s just a stud. I really like our defense. Even on nights when we’re playing top teams we should be letting up less than 25 shots a game.

The goalie is pretty good too – Bryan Hogan, a junior. He has some experience now that he’s played an entire year and has some postseason experience. The forwards, you know, I think it’s hard to do a weakness for Michigan, but if you’re looking at it I don’t think they have a lot of proven scorers – Louis Caporusso scored 25 goals last year but I think he had 18 in the first half of the year and really faded down the stretch. They have a lot of guys like Matt Rust and Carl Hagelin and David Wohlberg and Robbie Czarnik that they’re counting on to have their best seasons. That’s a Red mantra that you have to have a better season than the year before, and if those guys do, they’ll be just fine offensively. But if they don’t, and they give you what they’ve been giving you the last couple years, the offense, against some of the better teams, just might not be there.

AA: How concerned are you about the backup goaltending situation? Do you think Bryan Hogan can shoulder the load if Berenson needs him to play 40+ games?

MS: Well, the fact of the matter is, until the last couple years a single goalie played 40 games for Michigan every year. Al Montoya did it for four years, Josh Blackburn did it for four years before him, Marty Turco did it for four years before him, and Steve Shields did it for four years before him. It’s funny how quickly things change. For the longest time people gave Red a hard time because he had a single #1 goalie and that’s who he played, and then a couple years ago Noah Ruden and Billy Sauer started when Sauer was a freshman and split time, and then Sauer started his sophomore year, in his junior year he split time a little bit with Bryan Hogan, and his senior year Hogan and him split the entire first half of the season. If they need Hogan to play 40 games, and he has no health concerns, then absolutely that’s fine and he’ll do well in that role.

I am concerned about the backup goalie. I have nothing against Shawn Hunwick, but a walk-on that has appeared in one career game going into his senior year doesn’t give you confidence that if he gets thrown in there for any extended period of time beyond maybe one game or one weekend if it’s an emergency – that could very quickly be Michigan’s undoing. You talk about a weakness, if Hogan gets hurt and he’s going to miss more than a weekend, you’ve got yourself a serious problem.

AA: How will Michigan replace the playmaking ability of Aaron Palushaj? Do you think Louie Caporusso will be as productive without his departed linemate?

MS: You know, it’s interesting, because I asked that question to Louie specifically, and Louie came back and actually looked this up: he said that outside of the first half of the season, he actually didn’t play with Aaron that much, and he didn’t really play with him a ton in the first half. He played with him for about a ten-game stretch, and during that ten games Louie had, I think, about eight goals, but other than that he didn’t play with him very much. Louie actually played quite a bit with Matt Rust and Carl Hagelin on the second line.

In terms of replacing him, you know, every year there’s a guy, or two guys, or three guys that they lose that are a big deal that you look at the roster and you go, where are the points going to come from? Two years ago, they lost Kevin Porter and Max Pacioretty and Chad Kolarik, all off the first line. You lose your whole first line, and you go, who’s going to step up? Well, Palushaj and Caporusso stepped up. This year you lose Palushaj, and you say, who’s going to step up? Well, maybe those guys we talked about. Maybe Matt Rust steps up. Carl Hagelin had four goals over the weekend. That was exhibition games, but maybe he’s the guy scores 20 goals this year. Maybe Robbie Czarnik, I want to say he had three goals a year ago, but maybe he gets 10 or 15 goals. Maybe Brian Lebler steps up. There’s always going to be a guy who steps into that role, so I’m not really that worried about it. It’s just going to be if it’s one guy, or maybe three or four guys that are just doing a little bit more.

AA: It always seems like Michigan has one or two players who just come from out of nowhere and have really productive years. Which guy or guys do you see having a breakout season this year?

MS: I think Czarnik could have a breakout year. Like I said, he only scored three goals last year, but that was way below what he’s capable of. He’s probably a guy who, if he gets off to a hot start like his classmate David Wohlberg does, he probably scores 15 goals and 15 assists. Those are the kind of numbers that he should put up this year at least. He’s a very skilled forward, great skating, great hands, he can do a lot of things offensively. He needs to have a big year.

Brian Lebler is a person they keep on talking about. He’s a senior, a big body, he scored seven goals last year and he came on towards the second half of the year. He could have a good year, and kind of do what David Rohlfs did. David Rohlfs was a good plays and then had a huge senior year, scored close to 20 goals. Lebler, I don’t think he’d get 20, but he could get 15 to 18 and have a really good senior year.

The other player that I really like is Greg Pateryn, the sophomore defenseman. He came in, and he had only played one year in juniors out of high school, and he was clearly overwhelmed early, but by December he was playing really well and he was playing really well in January when Mark Mitera came back and pushed him out of the lineup. He’s very physical, and has got the body type – 6-2, 220 pounds – that can just be punishing as a defenseman. He seems to have realized the speed of the game and has caught up to that. If he can do a better job in terms of his skating and in terms of being in the right spot at the right time, I think he’ll have a really good sophomore year.

AA: What freshmen do you see stepping and playing a big role for the team this year?

MS: Chris Brown, because he’s a power forward, and those guys usually end up on a good line – a few years ago Pacioretty was on Porter and Kolarik’s line. I think he has a good chance of ending up on Caporusso’s line, or maybe with Rust, and being that powerful left or right winger that clears room in front of the net and benefits from playing with a playmaking center. I like Chris Brown a lot.

Then A.J. Treais, I kind of counted him out as a guy who was too small – he’s only about 5-8 – but Michigan has had great players before that were shorter. T.J. Hensick was 5-8, Mike Comrie was 5-8, Mike Cammalleri was only 5-10 or so. I think Treais can come in and be the center on the third line and produce 20 points or more this year too. So, those are the two guys that I look to this year the most.

AA: Michigan was tabbed as the top team in the CCHA by both the media and the coaches. Where do you see this team finishing, and do you see them as a Frozen Four-caliber squad?

MS: Well, they absolutely have Frozen Four potential. Two years ago, they went to the Frozen Four, and they won the CCHA championship and the tournament championship, and I think this team can be better than that team. I think they have all the pieces in place that they need. I think the defense is fantastic, the goalie will very good, and the forwards – even though that’s a little bit of a concern – I think they’ll rise up. I would say this: I would be very disappointed, with the Frozen Four in Detroit this year, if Michigan wasn’t playing in the Frozen Four. There are a couple other really good teams out there, and certainly within the conference Notre Dame and Miami are going to be pretty special, but I really think this team has it all and should be in that position.

The same goes for the conference as well. Notre Dame and Miami are going to be Michigan’s biggest competition, and somebody usually comes out of the blue and challenges a little bit. Those are going to be good teams, Michigan is a very good team. I think they play Miami four times, so they’ll have an opportunity to beat those guys. But yeah, I really like this team a lot. I think they’ll be playing for the national title, that’s actually my prediction. I don’t know if they’ll win it, because a lot of things depend, but I think they’ll be playing for the national title at the end of the year.

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