Quarterback Joey Elliott and the Boilermakers are prone to turning the ball over.

This week, The Numbers Game looks at how Michigan stacks up statistically against Purdue. Let’s look at the numbers:

CATEGORY	MICHIGAN (Nat'l Rank)	PURDUE (Nat'l Rank)	ADVANTAGE
Rush Offense (YPG)	207.56 (14)	136.78 (73)
Pass Offense (YPG)	193.89 (91)	235.33 (42)
Pass Efficiency	125.41 (75)	118.80 (87)
Total Offense (YPG)	401.44 (39)	372.11 (65)
Scoring Offense (PPG)	31.56 (27)	24.56 (80)
Rush Defense (YPG)	161.78 (85)	168.44 (88)	Push
Pass Defense (YPG)	220.33 (63)	194.67 (34)
Pass Efficiency Defense	125.00 (59)	108.05 (25)
Total Defense (YPG)	382.11 (81)	363.11 (65)
Scoring Defense (PPG)	25.11 (70)	28.00 (84)
Net Punting Yards	41.12 (3)	33.05 (104)
Punt Return Yards	9.24 (59)	9.15 (60)	Push
Kick Return Yards	23.51 (40)	20.09 (91)
Kick Return Defense	22.61 (84)	22.54 (81)	Push
Turnover Margin	-1.11 (109)	-0.89 (108)	Push
Penalty Yards/Game	46.00 (27)	39.00 (7)
Sacks	1.78 (70)	2.67 (25)
Sacks Allowed	2.22 (T-74)	1.56 (45)
Red Zone Offense	69% (111)	83% (54)
Red Zone Defense	85% (80)	82% (63)
3rd Down Conv. %	39.06 (64)	38.66 (70)	Push
3rd Down Conv. % Defense	35.92 (41)	39.57 (77)
Strength of Schedule*	66	29

*Strength of Schedule taken from CBSSports.com's rankings

Legend:

Difference between 0-10 in national rank: Push
Difference between 11-25 in national rank:
Difference between 26-50 in national rank:
Difference between 50-100 in national rank:
Difference greater than 100 in national rank: 

The Upshot:

I’m a little scared to say anything emphatic after what I wrote last week:

Simply put, if Michigan loses this game, than all of a sudden the howls of discontent that sounded after the Penn State game gain credence. I still maintain that they were not legitimate last week, but if we lose, somebody needs to be held accountable. The 2009 Illini are even worse statistically than the 2008 Wolverines and the 2007 Fighting Irish. I fully expect a bounce-back victory, and a resounding one at that. Anything less will be very, very disconcerting.

Yeah, that happened. Anyways, this game looks to be much more even statistically, although Michigan again has an advantage in both scoring offense (decided) and scoring defense (slight). However, Wolverine fans looking for Tate Forcier to have a bounce-back game may be out of luck — Purdue is pretty solid in both pass yards allowed and opponent passer efficiency. Michigan should look, for the second straight week, to exploit a sub-par rush defense. Last week that failed miserably, to the tune of 113 yards on 2.6 yards per carry, but Rich Rodriguez has to try to establish the run if he wants to get this offense back on track.

There is some good news for Michigan fans sick of seeing the team lose the turnover battle: Purdue is actually more turnover-prone than the Wolverines, coughing up the ball 26 times (119th — second to last — in the country) to 21 for the good guys (T-107). They do also force more turnovers, which explains the slightly better turnover margin, but Michigan should have some opportunities to capitalize on Boilermaker mistakes.

Just like last week, Michigan is playing against a statistically inferior squad — now it’s time to play it out that way on the field.