Alex on 
JL on 
Ace Anbender on 
Steve on 
Loading ...The Numbers Game: Wisconsin
Michigan must find a way to slow down John Clay and the Wisconsin rushing attack.
It’s time once again for The Numbers Game, this week breaking down the stats of Michigan and Wisconsin. Table for two? Yes, please.
| CATEGORY | MICHIGAN (Nat'l Rank) | WISCONSIN (Nat'l Rank) | ADVANTAGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Offense (YPG) | 208.30 (16) | 205.67 (17) | Push |
| Pass Offense (YPG) | 195.70 (89) | 198.00 (83) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 127.77 (64) | 130.32 (56) | Push |
| Total Offense (YPG) | 404.00 (44) | 403.67 (45) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (PPG) | 32.00 (24) | 29.56 (42) |  |
| Rush Defense (YPG) | 158.30 (80) | 102.78 (19) |  |
| Pass Defense (YPG) | 235.00 (83) | 209.33 (46) | |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 128.92 (68) | 127.07 (65) | Push |
| Total Defense (YPG) | 393.30 (89) | 312.11 (22) | |
| Scoring Defense (PPG) | 26.40 (76) | 22.44 (43) | |
| Net Punting Yards | 41.47 (2) | 35.51 (66) | |
| Punt Return Yards | 9.91 (50) | 5.69 (101) | |
| Kick Return Yards | 24.16 (25) | 18.39 (112) | |
| Kick Return Defense | 22.39 (81) | 25.29 (116) | |
| Turnover Margin | -0.90 (T-106) | .56 (28) | |
| Penalty Yards/Game | 45.40 (18) | 45.67 (19) | Push |
| Sacks | 1.70 (79) | 2.56 (27) | |
| Sacks Allowed | 2.40 (82) | 1.67 (49) | |
| Red Zone Offense (%) | 71% (T-107) | 94% (T-10) | |
| Red Zone Defense (%) | 86% (T-87) | 81% (T-52) | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 40.60% (T-54) | 47.66% (16) | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % Defense | 36.94% (45) | 36.07% (38) | Push |
| Strength of Schedule* | 84 | 11 | |
*Strength of Schedule taken from CBSSports.com's rankings
Legend:
Difference between 0-10 in national rank: Push
Difference between 11-25 in national rank: 
Difference between 26-50 in national rank:
Difference between 50-100 in national rank:
Difference greater than 100 in national rank:
The Upshot: The offenses in this game are very similar (in fact, almost shockingly so), with strong running attacks carrying the load for mediocre passing games. Both these teams are defined by their ability to move the ball on the ground.
We begin to see the difference between 5-5 (1-5 Big Ten) Michigan and 7-2 (4-2) Wisconsin as we move to the defensive side of the ball. This won’t come as a shock to anyone who has watched the Wolverines play, but the Badgers have a decided advantage in almost every defensive category. Add in the fact that they have a huge edge in turnover margin, and, well, you know why everybody thinks Wisconsin will take this one.
The area of the game Michigan can exploit is special teams: Wisconsin is not much of a threat in the return game, and is poor at covering kicks themselves. Darryl Stonum should be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the 116th-ranked kick return defense in the country. He’ll probably have to produce big-time on kick returns for Michigan to have a chance to overcome Wisconsin’s huge defensive edge.
Another number that really jumps out: Wisconsin converts 94% of the time when they get in the red zone. Their power running offense is tailor-made for punching the ball into the end zone (and not turning the ball over), so Michigan is going to have a tough time playing bend-but-don’t-break defense on Saturday — they simply can’t afford to give John Clay and the Badgers easy chances to score. Am I at all confident that the defense can keep Wisconsin from marching into the red zone and converting? Absolutely not.
The only real good news about this statistical matchup is that Wisconsin does not have a spectacular passing game, which would almost certainly spell doom for Michigan’s chances in this game. However, I’m not very confident that the Wolverines can hold up against the kind of smashmouth football the Badgers are known for. It’s been said before, but it bears repeating: Michigan is simply going to have to outgun their opponents to win unless the defense shows us something they haven’t all year.
Similar Posts:
Email This Post