It's pretty safe to project Tate Forcier as a future starter.

Now that the entire class of 2009 is reportedly qualified (Justin Turner is supposedly on campus and enrolled, which would imply that he is academically eligible), I want to take a post I did on my old website and update it. Back in 2008, I went through 11 years’ worth of Michigan recruiting classes (1993-2003) to see, in the average class, what percentage of players stayed all four years, started at least 12 games, made an All-Big Ten team, etc. Then I took those numbers and used them to predict player outcomes for the Class of 2008. So, in step one of this post, I’m going to update the original numbers to include the Class of 2004, now that all of those players have played out their eligibility. To do this, I’m using Rivals.com’s recruiting data and Mike DeSimone’s recruiting outcomes page. The results:

Overall, Michigan handed out 242 scholarships from 1993-2004. Of those players:
•    117 (48%) started at least twelve games for Michigan
•    52 (21%) were taken in the NFL Draft
•    10 (4.1%) were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft
•    53 (22%) were selected All-Big Ten first-team at least once
•    19 (7.8%) made an All-American team
•    Charles Woodson (.41%) won a Heisman Trophy

As for how many players stuck it out through their four (or five) years:
•    149 (62%) played out their eligibility, meaning 93 (38%) left the team early
•    8 players (3.3%) left early for the NFL
•    3 of those players (David Terrell, Charles Woodson, and Tim Biakabutuka) were taken in the Top 8 of the Draft
•    Alan Branch went with the first pick in round 2, Adrian Arrington with the 30th pick of the 7th round
•    The other 3 (Alex Ofili, Ernest Shazor, and Shantee Orr) went undrafted
•    2 players (Clayton Richard and Drew Henson) left school early to play pro baseball (.8%)
•    9 players (3.7%) were kicked off the team for grade or disciplinary issues (I realize this is way low, but many of Michigan’s disciplinary casualties simply transferred for undisclosed reasons. Take that number with a huge grain of salt)
•    27 players (11%) transferred (not including disciplinary casualties)
•    16 players (6.6%) were not picked up for their fifth year of eligibility (Ryan “Yards After” Mundy falls in this category, since we weren’t going to bring him back before he transferred to West Virginia)
•    16 players (6.6%) had their careers cut short due to injury

Now, I’ll adjust the above numbers for a 22-man recruiting class, which is the size of Michigan’s Class of 2009 (numbers rounded up or down where appropriate, since we’re hopefully dealing with whole football players):

14 will play out their full eligibility
10.5 (that .5 will be determined later) will start at least 12 games
5 will become All-Big Ten first-team players
2 will become All-Americans
5 will be taken in the NFL Draft

After the jump, I’ll take a look at the 2009 recruiting class and make some projections using the above data:

A quick note about the projections: I’m not going to project academic casualties or injuries, for what should be very obvious reasons. I know this skews the numbers very slightly, but I am not going to predict stuff like torn ACLs or ineligibility. Also, I’ll be sticking hard to the numbers, even though I think more than five players in this years’ class will be All-Big Ten caliber.

Does not play out eligibility, All-American (1):

• DT Will Campbell (Rivals 5*, No. 26 overall) — Campbell is the highest-rated player in this class and is slated to see immediate playing time at a thin defensive tackle position. I think he’ll become a real impact player by his sophomore season, and playing alongside a talented workhorse in Mike Martin will only help his production (when both see the field … we’ll see how much they play together under the new defensive scheme). I see him being an All-American as a junior and leaving early for the NFL Draft, much like Alan Branch did before him.

Is Big Will Campbell a future All-American? I think so.

Plays out eligibility, All-American (1):

• DB Justin Turner (Rivals 4*, No. 35 overall) — I really like Turner’s versatility, which should help him get on the field early and often this season. I’m guessing he’ll end up at corner, where he has tremendous size (6-2, 186) for the position and a lot of athleticism to boot. With the possibility of Donovan Warren leaving after this season, it is likely Turner will be thrust into a starting role alongside Boubacar Cissoko as soon as 2010, and I think he’s got all the talent necessary to be a special player.

Plays out eligibility, All-Big Ten (3, making the assumption that All-Americans will be All-Big Ten, which seems sound):

• QB Tate Forcier (Rivals 4*, No. 5 dual-threat QB) — Well, for one thing, he’s already slated to start this season. Forcier was really impressive in the Spring Game, and unless Denard Robinson or Devin Gardner (in 2010) come in and amaze, the quarterback job is Forcier’s until 2012. It’s tough to imagine a four-year starter with Forcier’s talent in this offense not making at least one All-Big Ten team, and I’d probably project him as an All-American except there’s only one quarterback slot on each team, making it just that much harder.
• DE Craig Roh (Rivals 4*, No. 7 weakside DE) — I think Roh projects really well to two positions — either at defensive end or the DE/LB hybrid — depending on how much weight he puts on. Either way, he has a ton of talent, produced a lot at the high school level, and is going to play in an aggressive defense under Greg Robinson that should rack up a lot of sacks. Rivals named him the fourth-best pass rusher at DE in the Class of 2009, and I expect Roh to terrorize Big Ten quarterbacks when he adds some weight.
• G Quinton Washington (Rivals 4*, No. 8 offensive guard) — Michigan has a long tradition of All-Big Ten linemen, and Q should continue that tradition while anchoring the interior of the Wolverine line. With David Moosman graduating after this season, there will be at least one open spot at guard, and I think the 6-3, 315 pound Washington will be the one to fill it.

Plays out eligibility, starts at least 12 games (7 — OK, I cheated, but you’ll see why):

• RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (Rivals 4*, No. 8 all-purpose back) — Toussaint put up video game numbers in high school, surpassing 2,000 yards in his senior season. He’s a track star with a solid running back build (5-10, 185). Definitely sounds like a starting spread back to me. The only reason I didn’t stick him in the All-Big Ten category was that I think Rodriguez will continue to employ the running back by committee strategy with all the talented backs on the roster. Toussaint could easily prove me wrong on this one, especially since he’ll be in the running to start in 2010 after the departure of Minor, Brown and Grady.
• OT Taylor Lewan (Rivals 4*, No. 16 offensive tackle) — Lewan came on very strong on the recruiting scene in his final season, and he looks like the perfect fit for what Rich Rodriguez wants in an offensive lineman. He’s strong but lean (6-7, 272), and Rivals named him the third best athlete among offensive linemen in his class. With Mark Ortmann graduating after this season and the offensive line thinning out with transfers, Lewan will have a chance to start as soon as 2010.
• WR Je’Ron Stokes (Rivals 4*, No. 14 wide receiver) — Stokes can play either outside or in the slot, has speed to burn (4.44 40-yard dash), and comes in at a position that has a lot of depth, but also a lot of youth (Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy are the only seniors at wideout who project to get playing time, and James Rogers is the only junior). I think Stokes will nab one of the outside receiving spots after this year, especially if Darryl Stonum continues to struggle.
• Slot Jeremy Gallon (Rivals 4*, No. 11 athlete) — Gallon may be the freshman I’m most excited to see play this year. He should get immediate playing time at the slot receiver position and at kick returner, and he’s electric every time he touches the ball. He may never put up great numbers at wideout, given his size (5-8, 162), the position’s depth, and the number of weapons the offense projects to have, but he should be a Harvin-esque player in terms of actual impact.
• DE Anthony LaLota (Rivals 4*, No. 11 strongside DE) — LaLota looks to be the perfect complement to Roh, although he could see time at the hybrid LB/DE spot as well. One Brandon Graham graduates, Michigan will be left with only one player (Ryan Van Bergen) with starting experience, and LaLota has the size (6-6, 260) to play with his hand down in Robinson’s system and the talent to leap over older players like Greg Banks and Adam Patterson. My guess is he starts on the line in 2010 after seeing some action this season.
• S Vladimir Emilien (Rivals 4*, No. 14 safety) — Emilien is an early enrollee who has impressed enough to already be in the conversation for a starting spot this year. He may have been underrated by the recruiting services because of an ACL tear that kept him out of his senior season. That same ACL tear scares me a little, but it seems as if Emilien is completely healthy and playing well. We’ll see him on the field this fall.
• K Brendan Gibbons (Rivals 2*, No. 8 kicker) — This is why I fudged the numbers slightly — every once in a while you have to replace your current kicker, and Gibbons is on scholarship to do just that. I don’t trust Bryan Wright or either of the two walk-ons, so the job should be Gibbons’ to lose this season.

Plays out eligibility, starts <10 games (3, since I’m still not including Gibbons):

• OT Michael Schofield (Rivals 4*, No. 18 offensive tackle) — Schofield might get stuck behind Lewan, Patrick Omameh, and Mark Huyge and then get pushed by whomever Michigan signs at tackle in 2010. However, he loves Michigan, so I don’t think he’ll seek out a transfer, and I think he’s talented enough to start at some point in his career. It’s just a numbers game, and they’re against Schofield if Lewan and Omameh lock down starting roles in 2010.
• S Thomas Gordon (Rivals 3*, No. 24 player in Michigan) — Michigan is really thin at safety, and Gordon is the only player besides Emilien in the Class of 2009 who looks like he’ll stay small enough to stay in the secondary. I think he’ll be a solid, heady backup (he played quarterback at Cass Tech).
• RB Vincent Smith (Rivals 3*, No. 36 running back) — Smith had a really good spring practice, which convinced me that despite his size (5-6, 159) he can be a productive running back in the Big Ten. I don’t think he’ll beat out Toussaint for a starting job, but he could be a very good situational back or slot receiver because of his speed and elusiveness.

That leaves seven guys:

• ATH Denard Robinson (Rivals 4*, No. 14 athlete) — This is a pick I really, REALLY hope I’m wrong about, since I’d love to see a guy who can run a 10.4 100-meter dash taking snaps for Michigan. However, Forcier appears to have a grip on the starting job, and Devin Gardner is the heir apparent after Forcier and has a very good chance of beating out Robinson for the backup spot in 2010. Michigan has a ton of receivers, so Robinson probably won’t see a lot of PT even if he changes positions to wideout. Maybe he can catch on at defensive back, but Michigan should be bringing in several good players in 2010 there as well.
• WR Cameron Gordon (Rivals 4*, No. 36 wide receiver) — Call me crazy, but is anyone else a little wary about a guy whose positions are wideout and linebacker? He doesn’t seem to fit the Rodriguez mold at outside receiver (and I don’t think he’s better than Stokes anyway), but he’s coming in at that position. Can he really make the move to linebacker successfully if things don’t work out at wideout?
• LB Brandin Hawthorne (Rivals 3*, No. 35 outside linebacker) — The LB/S hybrid spot may actually bump Hawthorne up to a starter, but I think 2010 four-star Marvin Robinson will take control of that position. If Hawthorne fills out, he could become a very good situational pass rusher, but right now he’s too small for linebacker (6-1, 181) and not experienced enough to play safety.
• RB Teric Jones (Rivals 3*, No. 37 running back) — I think Smith has the jump on Jones at running back, and there’s now a logjam at slot receiver, especially if Michigan keeps all its commits in the Class of 2010. It looks like Jones might get crunched out of playing time, and then he might want to seek out opportunities elsewhere.
• S Isaiah Bell (Rivals 3*, No. 26 outside linebacker) and LB Mike Jones (Rivals 3*, No. 25 safety) — These guys just scream ‘tweener’ to me, and even with Robinson’s system I still don’t think that’s a very good thing.
• CB Adrian Witty (Rivals 2*) — Two-stars just don’t work out too often, and Witty has injury history to boot. He may be underrated because of that injury history, but it’s hard to pick him above any of the other guys.

These are wild guesses, probably hilariously wrong (just check out my 2008 version, which has Sam McGuffie and Dann O’Neill as the two All-Americans), and not really that creative (I really didn’t deviate a whole lot from the recruiting rankings). However, it’s a fun thing, and I’d love to hear your input on this. Who do you think will stand out from this class? Any Hart-like sleepers out there? Hit up the comments and let me know what you think. In a year I’ll probably be deleting this post from the archives out of embarrassment.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2007 Recruiting Class
• The Foundation: A Look at the 2008 Recruiting Class
• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• The 2008 Recruiting Class, Now 17 Strong