This is the fourth and final part of my season predictions, taking a look at the final three games on Michigan’s schedule. After back-to-back losses to Penn State and Illinois, I have Michigan at 6-3 (2-3 Big Ten). Prior posts: Part I, Part II, Part III.

Game Ten — Nov. 7: Purdue

New head coach Danny Hope doesn’t inherit an enviable situation in West Lafayette, as Purdue returns only 11 starters (4 offense, 7 defense) from a squad that went 4-8 in 2008. Optimistic predictions have the Boilermakers finishing tenth in the conference. Quarterback Curtis Painter is gone, as is Justin Siller, the RB-turned-QB who torched Michigan last year. The new quarterback, senior Joey Elliott, has thrown only 49 career passes, and their leading returning rusher, Frank Halliburton, had all of 37 yards rushing last year. The Boilermakers will most likely put their trust in unknown running back Ralph Bolden, who impressed in the spring. Junior DE Ryan Kerrigan is one of the lone bright spots on defense after finishing with seven sacks in 2008. This team, in a word, is bad.

Key Matchup: The passing game vs. Purdue’s secondary. I would put the name of a quarterback in there, but who knows who will be getting the lion’s share of the snaps by the tenth game (probably Forcier, I know, but nothing is guaranteed). Purdue’s one strength may  be the pass defense, as they return three starters in the secondary from a team that led the Big Ten in pass defense (183.2 yards allowed per game) last year. The defense should be able to handle Purdue’s inexperienced offense with relative ease, so cracking Purdue’s one strength could mean a blowout.

Prediction: Purdue has no Hope (ha!). Michigan 41, Purdue 17.

Game Eleven — Nov. 14: @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a tough team to peg. With a solid rushing attack, led by sophomore John Clay, and the Big Ten’s best tight end in Garrett Graham, the Badgers should be able to move the ball on offense. However, they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback, as junior Scott Tolzien beat out 2008 starter Dustin Sherer and redshirt freshman Curt Phillips for the starting job in fall camp. Also, the defense, expected to be a strength under Defensive Coordinator-turned-Head Coach Bret Bielema, was a disappointment last year and returns only five starters, including just one each from the defensive line and linebackers.

Key Matchup: The front seven vs. John Clay. Stopping the Badgers running attack won’t be easy. Clay impressed as an oft-used backup last fall, amassing 884 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Wisconsin also returns a lot of experience on the line, as all five projected starters have starting experience. If Michigan can stop the run game, and force Tolzien (or whoever is starting by November) to beat them with his arm, this will be a close game.

Prediction: The depth of Michigan’s front seven, especially on the line, will be severely tested here. Michigan will put up points, but I think Wisconsin will wear down the defense. Wisconsin 31, Michigan 27.

Game Twelve — Nov. 21: Ohio State

Despite losing a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, the Buckeyes come in to the season as a clear top-two squad in the conference. QB Terrelle Pryor should improve by leaps and bounds from a freshman season in which he was solid, but conservative. The Heisman buzz may be premature, but Pryor will certainly be one of the conference’s best quarterbacks, and a constant threat to break the big play. Michigan fans can breathe a sigh of relief, however, as Chris “Beanie” Wells has moved on to the NFL, replaced by a man with a more threatening nickname but less talent in Daniel “Boom” Herron. OSU will be breaking in a whole new receiving corps, but they certainly won’t be lacking talent. The defense loses stud linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, as well as cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, but should still be strong with the return of safety Kurt Coleman, DE Thaddeus Gibson, and a solid corps of linebackers. Cornerback Chimdi Chekwa will also be one to watch, as the junior may be the next in a long line of shutdown Buckeye corners.

Key Matchup: Jonas Mouton vs. Terrelle Pryor. Yes, I’m getting specific for this one. Mouton, as the weakside linebacker, has the most freedom of anyone on defense to roam around and generally wreak havoc. He’ll have to put in the game of his life to help contain Pryor, but if Mouton can come through with some big plays against the talented sophomore, he could lift Michigan to victory.

Prediction: This is painful, but here goes … it’s six straight for Sweatervest and Co., as Michigan just cannot match up talent-wise against another juggernaut Buckeye squad. Ohio State 27, Michigan 17.

So, I see a 7-5 season and a bowl berth for the Wolverines. Nothing too exciting, and certainly not enough to completely silence the RichRod haters, but a big step in the right direction. By 2010 Michigan should by vying for the Big Ten crown, and not just a bowl berth.

This is Part III (duh) of my four-part prediction of Michigan’s season. Part I can be found here, and Part the Second right heeyah. For context: So far, I have Michigan going 5-1, with victories over Notre Dame and Iowa (now officially without RB Jewel Hampton) and a close loss at Michigan State. On to the second half!

Game Seven — Oct. 17: Delaware State

Much of what needs to be said about Delaware State can be captured by my surprise that The Helmet Project (an invaluable resource for the cool little helmets representing each opponent) actually had an image of their helmet. They are a I-AA squad that went 5-6 last season, returns only four defensive starters, and has a returning rushing leader who amassed exactly 31 yards in 2008. The Hornets lost their starting quarterback, top four rushers, and four of their top five receivers from a below-.500 MEAC team. They forfeited a conference game to play at Michigan. Do I need to say anything more? No? Good.

Key Matchup: Michigan vs. Themselves. I mean, honestly, if Michigan doesn’t win this game by 30+ points it better be because of weather so epic that passes are impossible to complete because they are being sucked away by tornadoes.

Prediction: A loss here will cause thousands of Wolverine fans to renounce religion, give up on life, and become destitute street-people begging for spare change from Spartan grads. Thankfully, this will not come to pass. Michigan 54, Delaware State 10.

Game Eight — Oct. 24: Penn State

Man, this is a tough team to read. I could see Penn State, who returns two stars on offense in QB Darryl Clark and RB Evan Royster and have the best linebacking corps in the country, cruising through the Big Ten and making a strong push for the BCS title game. I can also see the Nittany Lions struggling while trying to replace three first-team All-Big Ten offensive linemen, their top three receivers, and first-team All-American defensive end Aaron Maybin. However, it’s hard to argue against Penn State being one of the two best teams in the Big Ten this year, and their O-line should be set and gelled by the time they travel to Ann Arbor in late October. If the Ohio State game didn’t also bring the added pressure of being The Ohio State Game, I would call this far-and-away the toughest game on Michigan’s schedule.

Key Matchup: The front seven vs. Evan Royster. Penn State’s defense began the comeback (and subsequent slaughtering) against Michigan last season with a few big plays, but Evan Royster was the man Michigan could not stop. He finished with 174 yards and a touchdown on only 18 carries, and Penn State put up 46 points even though Darryl Clark had a relatively average day as a passer (18-31, 171 yards, 1 TD). If Michigan wants any change of upsetting the Nittany Lions, stopping Royster should be Priority 1-A.

Prediction: If Michigan played Penn State earlier in the season, while they’re still working on finding the right linemen and receivers, I’d like the Wolverines’ chances a lot more. However, Penn State has too much talent on both sides of the ball to not be the best in the Big Ten by late October. Penn State 37, Michigan 19.

Game Nine — Oct. 31: @ Illinois

Illinois’ ability to bounce back from a disappointing 5-7 season begins and ends with QB Juice Williams. Michigan fans all know just how good he can be, one season after watching Juice set a Michigan Stadium record with 431 yards of offense and four touchdowns. However, there’s the flip side to juggernaut Juice, which is erratic Juice, as Williams tossed 16 picks last season and struggled to play up to his great potential on a weekly basis. Along with more experience, one thing going very much in Juice’s favor is the return of receiver Arrelious Benn, who surpassed the 1,000-yard mark last season and has the potential to be a top-five NFL Draft pick. On the defense, the Illini lose their top four sacks leaders as well as their best cover corner in first-round pick Vontae Davis, but do return former Parade All-American LB Martez Wilson.

Key Matchup: Michigan’s linebackers vs. Juice Williams. Yes, Juice can throw the ball well, but the key to limiting the Illini offense is to make sure he doesn’t kill you with his feet. If the linebackers (and defensive line) can contain Williams and force him to become a drop-back passer, Michigan has a real chance of pulling the road upset.

Prediction: This game scares me way more than the road contest at Iowa. A Halloween matchup at Illinois means Michigan will be playing in a rabidly hostile atmosphere against the guy who destroyed the 2008 defense more than any other player, which is really saying something. It won’t be as bad this year, but I have to go with the Illini in this one. Illinois 34, Michigan 24.

Well, that wasn’t a very fun stretch, was it? This leaves Michigan at 6-3 (2-3 Big Ten) heading into what should be an easy home game against Purdue. Check back this week as I finish out my predictions.

Hey, how about some talk about actual football? We’re just five days away from the Western game, which means I need to hurry up and finish my predictions. Today I look at the Indiana, Michigan State, and Iowa games. Part I can be found here.

Game Four — Sept. 26: Indiana

Indiana returns 17 starters from a team that finished 3-9 in 2008, but, well, they were 3-9 and lose their best offensive weapon (WR/QB Kellen Lewis, who was booted from the team in April). Also, returning nine starters on defense doesn’t sound nearly as good when that defense gave up 35.3 points per game the prior season (good for 108th in the country). If my prior picks are correct, then Michigan will be riding high going into their fourth consecutive home game, and the attention should be back on the football team’s play on the field, not their practice habits off it.

Key Matchup: The offensive line vs. Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton — Kirlew and Middleton give Indiana perhaps the Big Ten’s best defensive end tandem, with Kirlew coming off a First-Team All-Big Ten season in 2008 (10.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss among 74 total tackles). With a freshman quarterback (presumably) starting, Michigan will have to be at their best when protecting the passer. Pressure can lead to drive-killing sacks, fumbles, and interceptions, so the offensive line, especially tackles Mark Ortmann and Mark Huyge, will have to step up.

Prediction: Hoosier head coach Bill Lynch will really be feeling the heat after a beatdown in the Big House. Michigan 41, Indiana 24.

Game Five — Oct. 3: @ Michigan State

Ah, the Spartans. A team expected to finish in the Top 25 despite losing both their quarterback and running back (/entire team offense) from last season. Everything I stand for as a Michigan fan makes me want to pick us to beat little brother and start the season a shocking 5-0. However, Kirk Cousins/Keith Nichol (whichever Spartan QB wins the starting job) will be surrounded by a lot of returning talent, with WR Mark Dell leading the way alongside a stable of talented running backs vying to replace Javon Ringer. The defense, led by preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Greg Jones at linebacker, should be solid. The difference in this game could come down to kicking, as Michigan has yet to name a starter while MSU returns All-Big Ten kicker Brett Swenson.

Key Matchup: Donovan Warren and Boubacar Cissoko vs. Blair White and Mark Dell — Big plays by Spartan receivers killed Michigan in last year’s loss to MSU (White and Dell combined for over 200 yards receiving, and White opened the scoring with a 61-yard TD reception). Warren and Cissoko will be relied on to shut down the Spartans’ dynamic duo this year, and they have to cut down on the big play if UM hopes to win.

Prediction: This should be close, and my heart tells me to pick the good guys, but my brain just won’t let me do it. Michigan State 27, Michigan 20

Game Six — Oct. 10: @ Iowa

Some fans look at this game and see it as the toughest on Michigan’s schedule. Iowa has a lot of experts thinking Big Ten dark horse, and they do return eight players from a defense that only allowed 13.0 points per game in 2008 (5th in the country). However, losing Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene is a huge blow to the Hawkeye offense, and his expected replacement, sophomore Jewel Hampton, has been plagued by knee injuries in the offseason and is no guarantee to stay healthy in the fall. Also, Iowa loses both starting defensive tackles from last year, and could be vulnerable to the run as a result.

Key Matchup: Michigan’s rushing attack vs. Iowa’s defensive interior — The loss of DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul (both four-year starters) leaves Iowa with a big hole to fill in the middle of their defense. If Michigan can get an interior running game going, they can control the pace of the game and move the ball against an otherwise stingy defense.

Prediction: Michigan is going to upset somebody this season, and if I had to pick a team that looks the most vulnerable, it’s Iowa. I think Michigan moves the ball enough on the ground to pull the upset in a defensive battle. Michigan 20, Iowa 16.

So, I see Michigan starting the season 5-1, getting a signature victory against the Hawkeyes, and being just seven points away from shocking the world and starting 6-0. Unfortunately, the schedule gets a little more serious from this point forward. Keep checking back as I continue my preseason predictions tomorrow.

With the season only eight days (!) away, it’s time to start breaking down the schedule game by game. Today, I’ll be looking at Michigan’s first three games, all at home, against Western Michigan, Notre Dame, and Eastern Michigan.

Game One — Sept. 5: Western Michigan

Western Michigan is the type of game that is almost a no-win for Michigan. Beat them, and fans say, “Well, of course you won, you played Western.” Lose, and it’s a complete disaster, despite the fact that WMU was bowl team last season, going 9-4, and they return seven starters from an offense that ranked 11th in the nation in passing offense. Quarterback Tim Hiller passed for 3,725 yards and 36 touchdowns (against 10 interceptions) as a junior, but loses three of his top four receivers from last season. The Broncos also return a 1,000 yard rusher in senior Brandon West, who rushed for 1,026 yards and eight touchdowns on only 204 attempts last year. The good news for Michigan: the defense, which allowed 24.9 points per game in 2008, returns only four starters.

Key Matchup: The Michigan secondary vs. Tim Hiller and Co. — The Wolverines will be breaking in three new starters in the secondary, and face one of the most prolific passers in the country. Michigan should be able to score some points against an inexperienced Bronco defense, and it will be critical for the defense to not give up big plays, especially through the air.

Prediction: The offense starts clicking in the second half, and the Wolverines come up with just enough stops to get off to a 1-0 start. Michigan 27, Western Michigan 21.

Game Two — Sept. 12: Notre Dame

Charlie Weis will be looking to save his job this season after losing 15 games the past two seasons (the most in Irish history), and he has the talent to make a run at a BCS bowl game with 18 returning starters. The much-hyped Jimmy Clausen enters his junior season after becoming the second ND quarterback to throw for 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in a season in 2008. He’s got plenty of weapons to throw to, with Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, and Duval Kamara all returning at receiver and three tailbacks (Armando Allen, Robert Hughes, and Jonas Gray) fighting for the starting spot. If there was ever a season for Notre Dame to return to glory, it’s 2009.

Key Matchup: Michigan’s pass rush vs. Notre Dame’s O-Line — Notre Dame returns every single starter from a much-improved 2008 offensive line, while Michigan will rely on Brandon Graham to anchor the defensive line while breaking in Mike Martin (although Martin should be very good) and Ryan Van Bergen as new starters. Last season Michigan was gashed by huge plays to Golden Tate, who finished with four receptions for 127 yards and a 40-yard touchdown reception. If Graham and Co. can get to Clausen it will take a lot of the pressure off of the defensive backs to stop the big play.

Prediction: Michigan should have a quarterback step up and take the starting job by this point (I hope), and Notre Dame has only one returning linebacker, so the Wolverines should be able to move the ball with the run and the pass. This one will be close, but I have no confidence in Charlie Weis’ ability to coach a team up to their full potential. Michigan 34, Notre Dame 28.

Game Three — Sept. 19: Eastern Michigan

Michigan fans will recognize the guy manning the headset for EMU, as former UM defensive coordinator Ron English enters his first season as the Eagles’ head coach. Unfortunately for English, he takes over a perennial doormat who finished 3-9 last season. In 2008, Eastern was able to move the ball though the air, finishing 20th nationally in passing offense, and they return eight starters on offense, including senior QB Andy Schmitt and top receiver Jacory Stone. However, their defense, which also returns eight starters, was downright abysmal, finishing 109th in scoring defense (35.6 points allowed per game), 103rd in rushing defense (196.3 yards per game), and 116th in passing efficiency defense (156.0 rating against). English is a young coach on the rise, but he’s going to have a very tough time pulling this team out of the MAC cellar this season.

Key Matchup: Michigan vs. Disappointment — This one is very simple. There is simply no reason for Michigan not to win this game. If the team is coming off a victory over Notre Dame, the team will have to make sure not to overlook the Eagles and put forward 100% effort. A loss against the Eagles would fall squarely on the shoulders of Rich Rodriguez for not having his team prepared and focused.

Prediction: As strange as this sounds, this game could be a jumping-off point for Michigan if they go on to have a successful season. There’s nothing like having a team click on all cylinders and tee off on a hapless opponent to help raise a team’s confidence. Michigan 42, Eastern Michigan 16.

There you have it. I see Michigan going 3-0 to start the year, and confidence should by flying high going into the Big Ten schedule. I’ll be continuing by predictions over the weekend, so make sure to check back here, and also make sure to head over to The Wolverine for more on the upcoming season.

Last week, I gave you five hopeful predictions for the 2009 season. Unfortunately, as we all know, Michigan is a rather flawed team with a whole lot of question marks surrounding them. Therefore, it’s time for some critical self-reflection as I give my five “less hopeful” predictions for 2009.

1. We see Nick Sheridan in at least three of the first four games — One outstanding characteristic of football coaches is that, almost to a man, they’re loyal to a fault towards veteran players. With Rich Rodriguez reiterating that he will play all three quarterbacks in the Western Michigan game, it is clear that this is the case with him and Nick Sheridan. I would love to see Rodriguez start Tate Forcier and stick with him as he battles through some freshman mistakes (which are inevitable) instead of throwing in Sheridan when his ceiling is hovering somewhere around “at least he only throws one pick a game”. However, all the preseason buzz and my gut instinct tells me that Sheridan will be on the field in the early going instead of holding a clipboard.
2. Michigan loses to a team that wins five or fewer games — Last week I predicted Michigan would beat one of the four toughest Big Ten teams on their schedule (Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois). However, I also think they’ll drop a game to a team they shouldn’t. Whether it’s the quarterbacks making untimely errors, or returners putting the ball on the ground, or the secondary giving up a few huge plays, this seems like a team with too many flaws to be able to consistently perform every week. I’m certainly not predicting a Delaware State victory, but a team like Indiana, Purdue, or even Wisconsin (if they collapse, which isn’t entirely unfeasible) could pose a dangerous threat to Michigan’s bowl hopes.
3. Michigan converts less than 65% of their field goals this season — The battle nobody seems to be focused on (or worried about) is the one for starting placekicker. Word out of camp is Brendan Gibbons, the scholarship freshman everyone expected to step up and take the job, has not shown the consistency necessary to earn a place on the field. That leaves Jason Olesnavage, a 5th year senior walk-on who has never attempted a field goal, with the inside track to earning kicking duties this fall. Does that scare the crap out of anybody else, or is it just me?
4. Greg Mathews ends his career as a backup — The senior has not impressed in fall camp, and his uninspired play leaves a lot to be desired out of a guy who came into this year as the clear number one outside receiver. With Junior Hemingway coming back from a medical redshirt, LaTerryal Savoy pushing for a starting role, the talented Darryl Stonum entering his sophomore season, and freshmen Je’Ron Stokes and Cameron Gordon on campus, Mathews could see his role severely diminish if he doesn’t step it up in September.
5. Michigan finishes (again) with a negative turnover margin — I realize that turnover margin, as a general rule, fluctuates from year to year and at some level seems completely random (I’d provide a link, but I just spent 20 minutes trying to find the article I was thinking of and finally gave up). However, with punt returners dropping punts in practice, Michigan playing two freshmen and Nick Sheridan at quarterback, and the defense fielding an inexperienced secondary, I have a hard time seeing Michigan come out positive when it comes to turnovers. I really hope I’m wrong here, as this could be the difference between an 8-4 bowl team and a 5-7 disaster.

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With football season a mere two weeks away, it’s about time to start making some predictions. Today, I will make five optimistic predictions for Michigan’s season. Next week (I’m taking a brief vacation this weekend) I’ll hit you with the other side of the coin, making five more pessimistic predictions. On with the show!

1. Michigan upsets a top 15 team — By my count, there are four squads that Michigan could face that would be ranked in the top 15: Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Iowa. Of those, Michigan gets the two toughest (PSU and OSU) at home. By the time they play any of those teams, Michigan should have an established starting quarterback and a decent comfort level with both the offense and defense. Personally, I think our best chance is against Iowa (as stated earlier on this blog, I think they’re overrated), but, last season aside, we own Penn State, and boy are we ever due for an upset against the Buckeyes. I like Michigan’s chances of taking at least one of those games.
2. Tate Forcier completes 60% of his passes — Boy, could this one make me look stupid, but between his performance in the Spring Game and fall practices, I’m pushing for the driver’s seat on the Tate Forcier bandwagon. Accuracy is probably his best attribute, and Rich Rodriguez’s bubble screens and quick passes should help bolster Forcier’s completion percentage while he gets comfortable at the college level. No, Forcier doesn’t have an elite NFL talent like Braylon Edwards at receiver, like Chad Henne did as a freshman, but he is surrounded by a lot of serviceable weapons (Minor, Brown, Mathews, Hemingway, Odoms, Gallon, Grady, Smith, etc.), which should help ease his transition.
3. Craig Roh records at least five sacks — Not a whole lot is known about Roh’s role at this point, as he wasn’t one of the early enrollees from this year’s freshman class. However, he is a pass-rushing demon who seems like the perfect fit at the ‘quick’ position, especially as a situational pass rusher. His size (listed at 6-4, 238 on the official roster) is far too small to play DE in Greg Robinson’s system, but he should have no problem rushing from a two-point stance off the edge.
4. Kelvin Grady catches at least 20 passes — This sounds a bit bold, to say the least, since only Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews had more than 20 receptions last year, and Grady spent the last two years on the hardwood, not the gridiron. However, Grady has impressed in fall camp, and from what I’ve seen of him he has a very impressive set of hands to go along with the speed and quickness we all witnessed while he played point guard for John Beilein. He could be very dangerous in the open field, and should be one of several players (including Odoms, obviously, as well as Jeremy Gallon, Roy Roundtree, and maybe Terrence Robinson) to see significant time in the slot. I’d love to see what he can do with a well-executed bubble screen; he could be a home-run threat for the Michigan offense.
5. As a team, Michigan averages over 5 yards per carry — The Wolverines’ offensive line will be much-improved from last season (they have to be, right?), and with Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, and Michael Shaw all returning (plus the arrival of freshman Vincent Smith, a spring standout), Michigan should improve markedly on their 3.9 yards per carry average from last season. Don’t forget that Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running the quarterback keepers instead of Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Plus, with a full year under Rich Rodriguez’s offense, Michigan should be ready to bust out some trickery this season, and we should see more big runs from a team whose longest run in 2008 came from the plodding Threet (58 yards against Wisconsin). All this adds up to at least a one-yard improvement per run this season.

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Rank	Team
1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Southern Cal
4	Alabama
5	Oklahoma
6	Oklahoma State
7	Penn State
8	Ohio State
9	California
10	Mississippi
11	Boise State
12	Virginia Tech
13	LSU
14	Georgia Tech
15	Georgia
16	Florida State
17	Illinois
18	TCU
19	North Carolina
20	Iowa
21	Notre Dame
22	Miami (Florida)
23	Clemson
24	Brigham Young
25	Oregon

It’s been over a week since I took my first shot at making a preseason Top 25, and a few things have changed since then, so here’s my second (and hopefully final) draft of my preseason poll. My changes, and the reasoning behind them, are as follows:

• Penn State moves down a spot — Linebacker Mike Mauti tore his ACL in practice and will likely miss the season. PSU still has a very solid linebacker corps, with Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee leading the way, but losing a starter on defense still hurts, especially when it comes to depth.
• Virginia Tech drops from 9 to 12 — Starting running back Darren Evans is gone with an ACL tear, and with him goes any chance of VT competing for a national title. I probably could have dropped VT even further, but the Hokies still bring back enough talent to be a borderline Top 10 team. We’ll know a lot more after they play Alabama on Sept. 5.
• Flipped LSU and Georgia — Not a lot of concrete evidence on this one, just a gut feeling. I’m worried that Georgia will stumble at Oklahoma State on Sept. 5 and never fully recover as they break in a new QB and RB, while LSU has time to gel behind QB Jordan Jefferson with four relatively easy games (@Washington, Vanderbilt, UL Lafayette, @Mississippi State) before facing off against … Georgia. I like LSU in that game, even though it’s played in Athens.
• Dropped Oregon State, added Oregon at 25 — This is why I post drafts … got a strong argument from reader Mikey about this, and I like his points: Oregon keeps their coaching staff, only losing the head coach, and Jeremiah Masoli looks like a breakout star in the making at quarterback. Oregon State, on the other hand, only brings back three starters on defense, got blasted by Oregon in the regular season finale last year, and didn’t exactly inspire in a 3-0 victory over Pitt in the Sun Bowl.

There you have it. I’m probably done with changes unless somebody really works me over in the comments.

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Fall practice begins today (actually, it began about an hour-and-a-half ago), and there are a ton of unanswered questions when it comes to the Michigan football team. Here are five things I’m keeping a close eye on as fall practice progresses:

1. The quarterback situation — Well, duh. All eyes will be on Tate Forcier as practice begins, and they should be: he holds the key to Michigan’s success this season. However, I’m just as interested in the backup quarterback situation. If Denard Robinson comes in and establishes himself as the backup, I’ll be pleased. If Nick Sheridan still holds the backup spot when fall practice ends, I’ll be very concerned. It’s as simple as that. Also, we’ll see how many specific packages (if any) are designed specifically for Robinson.
2. Which receivers emerge? — Besides Greg Mathews and Martavious Odoms, there really isn’t a receiver on the roster who is guaranteed anything in terms of playing time, and even those two will have to battle for their starting spots. Will Junior Hemingway bounce back from a season lost to injury and illness? Who, out of Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, LaTerryal Savoy, and Je’Ron Stokes, will step up and take the second starting spot on the outside? Can Terrence Robinson or Jeremy Gallon make an immediate impact in the slot? Hopefully, all these questions will be answered by the time Michigan takes the field on Sept. 5.
3. The safeties — The scariest position group on the team right now (for Michigan fans) is at safety, where currently a true freshman (Vlad Emilien) and a converted corner (Troy Woolfolk) are slated to start. No matter what, the Wolverines will have two first-time starters in the last line of defense. If the news out of fall is anything but great regarding the safety play, there is much reason for consternation about the defense.
4. Impact freshmen — I’ve already mentioned Stokes, Gallon, and Emilien as freshmen who could contribute immediately. Will Campbell will almost certainly see significant playing time at the thin defensive tackle spot. Tailback Vincent Smith had a very strong spring and is vying for playing time in a crowded backfield. Will players like Craig Roh (quick), Fitzgerald Toussaint (tailback), or Justin Turner (DB, assuming he qualifies) push for playing time as well?
5. Stevie Brown — The much-maligned safety is now at the spinner (LB/S hybrid) position, and could be the key to a successful defense. Fans could not be pleased with his performance in the spring game, as he was undressed by David Cone, of all people, giving up a 40-yard run to a quarterback whose 40 time is on the wrong side of five seconds. Will this be the season he finally stops giving up big plays and performs at the high level he was expected to play at two years ago?

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With only a month (just one month!) until the 2009 college football season, it’s about time to continue my preseason outlook by ranking the top players in the Big Ten on offense and defense. I’ll try to keep my homerism to a minimum for this list:

OFFENSE:

1. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois — Benn was a weapon as a sophomore last season, catching 67 passes for 1,055 yards and three touchdowns, and he should be even better with an improving Juice Williams throwing him the ball. He may be the best pro prospect in the conference, and he packs a ton of speed and athleticism into a 6-2, 220 pound frame. Benn is the type of player who can catch anything thrown in his direction. All he needs is a quarterback who will consistently find him.
2. Daryll Clark, QB, Penn State — Clark will be a player to keep a close eye on in the early going — he bulked up to 240 pounds in the offseason, leaving many wondering if his bulk will hurt his mobility. I still believe he’ll be the conference’s best signal-caller. Clark may be the best pure passer in the Big Ten (192-321, 59.8%, 2,592 yards, 19 TDs, 6 INTs in 2008), and he can run as well (72 attempts, 282 yards, 10 TDs). He is the biggest reason why I think Penn State will take home the conference crown this season.
3. Evan Royster, RB, Penn State — Royster would be the second-biggest reason I like the Nittany Lions this year. He’s by far the best returning back in the Big Ten, having averaged 6.5 yards per carry en route to a 1,236 yard, 12 touchdown season in 2008. At 6-1, 209 pounds, Royster isn’t the most impressive back physically, but he finds a way to get yardage. Barring injury, another 1,200 yard season is a safe bet for the senior.
4. Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State — Pryor may not be the most polished passer, but he did a tremendous job of playing within himself as a true freshman, completing over 60% of his passes and throwing only four interceptions in 165 pass attempts. I expect him to only get better as a passer as he gets more comfortable at the college level, and he is already a huge threat as a runner (631 yards and 6 TDs last season). With the reigns of the Buckeye offense completely handed over to him in 2009, Pryor should improve greatly from a solid freshman year. Ugh.
5. Juice Williams, QB, Illinois — Michigan fans all know what Juice can do when he’s at his best after he set the Michigan Stadium record with 431 yards of total offense, as well as adding four touchdowns, during the Illini’s 45-20 shellacking of the Wolverines. However, he has to cut down on the mistakes after throwing 16 interceptions in 2008, an ugly figure that greatly offset his 3,173 passing yards, 719 rushing yards, and 27 total touchdowns (22 passing, 5 rushing). If he can eliminate the bad interceptions, Williams may just be the most dangerous player in the Big Ten.

DEFENSE:

1. Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan — OK, maybe this is a homer pick, but it’s not a stretch by any means. Graham was the lone bright spot on what was otherwise a terrible Wolverine defense in 2008, tallying 46 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. The Team MVP should be even better as a senior, and he could benefit greatly from a new defensive scheme that should call for more blitzes. I’d be shocked if BG didn’t break double-digit sacks for the second straight year.
2. Jammie Kirlew, DE, Indiana — Kirlew put up monster numbers for the Hoosiers last season, recording 74 tackles, 10.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Unfortunately, he plays on an awful defense and a bad team in general, and therefore misses out on a lot of the hype surrounding players on better squads. Still, he is a monster off the edge, and his sack totals are even more impressive when you consider that offenses can key on Kirlew, knowing that the rest of the defense isn’t much of a threat.
3. Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State — Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, led the Spartans with 127 tackles and 14 TFL as a sophomore, and should anchor the State defense again this season. Despite being a little on the small side (6-1, 222), Jones has been very productive in his career. The guy just makes tackles, and you can’t ask for much more out of a linebacker.
4. Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State — Bowman also had a very productive 2008, tallying 106 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, two forced fumbles, and an interception. 2009 could be even better for Bowman with the return of linebacker Sean Lee, who missed all of 2008 with a torn ACL after making 138 tackles in 2007. Bowman and Lee will give PSU the best linebacking corps in the Big Ten, which comes as no surprise for a school known as “Linebacker U”.
5. Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan – This may seem like a strange pick, but keep in mind that Warren’s 2008 season was marred by an ankle injury that never fully healed. The former Freshman All-American and Rivals.com five-star prospect is healthy and ready to go for 2009, and should be a lockdown corner for the Wolverines. He’ll have to live up to the hype, because Michigan will have three new starters in the secondary. Look for quarterbacks to stay away from Warren this season as they test the rest of the Wolverine secondary.

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With media day in the books, it’s about time to take a stab at ranking the Big Ten teams. Here is my best guess at how the standings will look at the end of the season:

1. PENN STATE — It seems like every contender has some big holes to fill, and the Nittany Lions are no exception. They lost their top three wideouts and defensive ends from last season, three starting offensive linemen, and their entire starting secondary. However, I still think they’ll come out on top for a few reasons: First, quarterback Darryl Clark and tailback Evan Royster return, giving Penn State the best offensive backfield in the conference. Second, they have the best linebacking corps in the Big Ten, anchored by Navarro Bowman and Sean Lee, which should help cover for the rest of the defense’s inexperience in the early going. Third, they get Iowa and Ohio State in Happy Valley, arguably the toughest road environment in the Big Ten. I think a PSU victory over the Buckeyes on Nov. 7 ultimately decides the conference title.
2. OHIO STATE — The Buckeyes have a lot to replace as well, losing Beanie Wells, best known for running through my nightmares, as well as stud linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, unanimous All-Big Ten first teamer Malcolm Jenkins, and mammoth tackle Alex Boone. They also have Terrelle Pryor, which should work out well for them. However, I think Pryor will still experience some growing pains as he is forced to pass more, and having an entirely new receiving corps doesn’t help matters with the departures of Brian Robiske and Brian Hartline. Like Penn State, OSU has a favorable conference schedule, getting Illinois and Iowa at home and missing Michigan State and Northwestern completely, but that game at Beaver Stadium looms large.
3. ILLINOIS — At this point, all the choices start getting very flawed, and when teams are flawed, I start looking for players who can win games on their own. Wideout Arrelious Benn is the best player in the conference, and Michigan fans are certainly aware of what quarterback Juice Williams can accomplish with both his feet and his arm. If Williams cuts down on the interceptions (16 in 2008, though he did throw for 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns) the Illini could be a very dangerous team in 2009.
4. IOWA — The Hawkeyes seem to be the trendy pick for Big Ten sleeper by just about everybody, but I just don’t see it. Ricky Stanzi will have to be a lot better for me to start fearing their passing game, and they lose tailback Shonn Greene, who was basically Iowa’s 2008 offense. Yes, they have  a tough defense, and that upset of Penn State on the road was a tremendous victory, but I don’t see this team putting together the 6 or 7 conference victories it will take to crack the top of the standings.
5. MICHIGAN — There. I said it. It’s out there. Call me a homer, but I think with a much-improved offensive line, a viable option at quarterback, and a year of experience in Rich Rodriguez’s system, Michigan pushes into back into the top half of the Big Ten standings. Remember, the Wolverines return every starter on offense except Steven Threet, who probably would’ve ceded the quarterback job to Tate Forcier at some point in 2009 anyway. The defense is a huge question mark, but Greg Robinson has a very strong track record as a defensive coordinator, and they can’t be worse than they were last year, can they?
6. MICHIGAN STATE — The Spartans are another team where the hype doesn’t seem to fit when you take a closer look. Javon Ringer put the offense on his back at times last year, and he’s gone. The lack of a proven running back hurts twofold when you’re also replacing a quarterback, which Michigan State will this season with the graduation of Brian Hoyer, who wasn’t tremendous but could manage a game. Add in the fact that we’re talking about Michigan State, and they always seem to disappoint when they raise expectations, and I’m not willing to put them in the top five.
7. MINNESOTA — Don’t laugh … the Gophers look poised to be a true sleeper in the Big Ten this year. They return 10 starters on offense and eight on defense from a team that went 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten). This is a squad that one year earlier went 1-11 (0-8), including losses to Florida Atlantic and I-AA North Dakota State. Tim Brewster is doing an incredible job of turning this program around, and he has a solid quarterback-receiver tandem in Adam Weber and Eric Decker. The main reason I don’t have them above Michigan State is their schedule: road games against Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa will be uphill battles, to say the least. However, if any of those teams take the Gophers lightly, we could see a season-changing upset on par with Iowa-Penn State 2008.
8. WISCONSIN — The Badgers might be able to sneak up on some teams a year after falling from the top ten to a 7-6, unranked finish. Missing Penn State and Illinois on the schedule will certainly help their chances of rebounding from a disastrous 2008, but they’ll need a huge season from highly-touted running back John Clay to do much better in the standings. I’m waiting for Bret Bielema to prove that he deserved to replace Barry Alvarez as Wisconsin’s head coach; so far, it’s been all downhill since a 12-1 debut season in 2006.
9. NORTHWESTERN — No Michigan or Ohio State on the schedule is a huge break for Northwestern, but they still have to replace quarterback C.J. Bacher, do-everything tailback Tyrell Sutton, and their entire receiving corps. Mike Kafka should be a decent dual-threat quarterback, and he did get some experience last season, but who is going to contribute around him? Better hope that defense, led by a secondary that returns all four starters, holds strong while the offense finds its footing.
10. INDIANA — Indiana’s hopes of being a Big Ten sleeper left with quarterback/receiver Kellen Lewis, who was booted from the team this spring for violating team rules. They do return nine starters on defense, but that defense gave up points in droves last season (34 or more in 8 of 12 games, including 62 against Purdue). They would be the clear, choice to finish last, except for…
11. PURDUE — Michigan fans complaining about Lloyd Carr leaving the cupboard bare may want to look at the scraps Joe Tiller left new head coach Danny Hope in West Lafayette. Four offensive players, all linemen, return for a team that went 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten) in 2008. I don’t even have to look at the defense to know that this is a hopeless cause for this season. Feel bad for Danny Hope.