Please don't change your mind. Please.

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Similar Posts:

• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defensive Ends
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Cornerbacks
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Recruiting Update: Part II (Rounding Out the Class)
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defense

Will Troy Woolfolk have to be Michigan's #1 corner next season?

As any Michigan fan who has watched during the 2009 season can attest, the secondary has been somewhat awful. The statistics agree: Michigan is 96th in the country in pass defense (246.5 yards allowed per game), and although some of that can be attributed to poor linebacker play, the onus falls squarely on the shoulders of defensive backs not named Donovan Warren. Greg Robinson has tried three different players at the second corner spot, and of those players, one has a tenuous hold on a spot on the team (Boubacar Cissoko), one doesn’t appear to be athletic enough to guard MAC wide receivers (J.T. Floyd), and the third was a safety until last week (Troy Woolfolk, who actually had a decent game against Iowa).

The secondary is a huge concern for this season, for obvious reasons: they’re not very good, still making major personnel changes, starting a walk-on at safety, etc. However, take a look at this (the depth chart by year for this season, with a big assist from MGoBlog), keeping next season in mind:

Now take Donovan Warren out of that picture, as in all likelihood he’ll be playing on Sundays next season.

Best case scenario for 2010: Warren stays, allowing Woolfolk to develop into a solid #2 cornerback. Justin Turner turns out to be the stud defensive back we expected him to be when he committed. Boubacar Cissoko gets his act together academically and on the field. Mike Williams learns how to properly cover the deep middle in a Cover 3. Vlad Emilien or Marvin Robinson supplants Jordan Kovacs and spends much of the season terrorizing opposing backfields. Michigan gains commitments from Cullen Christian (very likely) and another 3/4 star corner to add depth to the secondary.

More realistic scenario: Warren leaves, and Michigan spends the season without a real #1 corner. Troy Woolfolk is passable, but the #2 corner is again a fiasco barring Justin Turner being the next Law/Woodson/Jackson/Hall. The safeties remain shaky, with one first-year starter taking Kovacs’ spot and Mike Williams remaining as the other safety (and hopefully learning how to cover the deep middle, please). Cullen Christian and another 3/4 star corner commit, but probably don’t contribute immediately.

Very little of this situation is the fault of the current coaching staff: Lloyd Carr’s staff had one cornerback commit in the class of 2008 before handing over the reigns to Rich Rodriguez. That commit was Boubacar Cissoko, who has had equal problems staying eligible and staying with opposing wide receivers. The other defensive back in that class, Brandon Smith, struggled as a safety and was moved to linebacker. You could argue that the Rodriguez staff needed to get another cornerback in the class of 2009, but I doubt anyone expected Justin Turner’s eligibility to be in question so deep into fall camp, and Adrian Witty failed to qualify entirely. It certainly isn’t anybody’s fault that Warren is so good that he’s a likely first-round NFL Draft pick after his junior season.

What am I saying here? There isn’t much to do except brace yourselves, because the struggles of 2009 could be what keeps the 2010 team from being a bona-fide Big Ten title contender.

Similar Posts:

• Farewell, Donovan Warren
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Cornerbacks
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Michigan Promotes Adam Braithwaite to Safeties/Outside Linebackers Coach

Freshman Denard Robinson shows off Michigan's new practice jerseys while battling for the quarterback job.

Football:

• U-M opens practice with new look — Detroit News — Michigan’s practice jerseys have been adidas-ized, which three stripes running down the side of both the white jerseys (blue stripes) and blue jerseys (maize stripes). They’re practice jerseys: as long as ads don’t show up on these, I really don’t care.
• Inside Al Glick Field House ($) — The Wolverine — Matt Pargoff with a photo spread of the new practice facility, which looks awesome. Facilities like this will help Michigan stay a major power for years to come, as I’m sure recruits will be blown away by how nice the new practice facility and locker rooms are.
• U-M unveils its own ‘Taj Mahal’ — Detroit Free Press — Like I said, the practice facility: nice.
• Justin Turner, Adrian Witty aren’t with team as University of Michigan opens practice — AnnArbor.com — They still have lockers, which means the team is still optimistic that both will qualify. Let’s hope this doesn’t drag out for too long, especially in the case of Turner, who has a chance to make a big impact in the secondary this season.
• Quick notes from Wolverines first football practice — The Diag — Ryan Kartje posts some quick observations from practice, including the fact that Jason Forcier has his own locker as well. Also, Denard Robinson is very, very fast, but still needs work at QB.
• Can Tennessee, Eric Berry Finally Give Stiff Arm to Ghost of Charles Woodson — The Fanhouse — Get over it, guys. At least our coach didn’t screw your team out of a consensus national title. Plus, Woodson was the best player in the country that year. They counted the votes and everything.

Basketball:

• Former University of Michigan basketball captain David Merritt kicks off clothing line — AnnArbor.com — Merritt put out this video, which is very well-produced and even features Coach Beilein rocking some of Merritt’s gear. I Miss You, Inc. will launch Sept. 4 in the Michigan League ballroom.
• The Interesting Choice … Freshman Blake McClimans — MGoBlue — McClimans is unusual for a basketball prospect in that he did not play AAU ball, instead playing volleyball and baseball on top of hoops. Interesting choice, indeed.

Hockey:

• CCHA rejects Alabama-Huntsville’s bid — MiCHO — With the departure of Nebraska-Omaha from the CCHA, many — myself included — thought Huntsville was a lock to join the conference. Instead, it looks like the CCHA will be an 11-team conference for the foreseeable future.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wolverines on the Web Turns It Up To 11
• Michigan Basketball: Bump in the Road, or Nosedive?
• A Closer Look: Michigan Basketball, 2010-11

Freshman defensive back Justin Turner has not yet qualified, according to Rich Rodriguez.

Football:

• Michigan still waiting on Justin Turner, Adrian Witty to be eligible — AnnArbor.com — Rich Rodriguez went on WTKA this morning and said that both Turner and Witty have not yet qualified. Rodriguez sounds optimistic that Turner will be qualified and ready to go for practice Monday, but it doesn’t sound so good for Witty, who “is kind of in limbo now” according to Rodriguez.
• Opponent preview: Delaware State offense — The Wolverine — Michael Spath goes in-depth on the Hornets, the one team that I will guarantee Michigan will beat this year (ducks). There’s some interesting quotes from their play-by-play guy about the fans’ reaction to DSU forfeiting a conference game to play in the Big House.
• Time helps ease pain for W.Va., Rodriguez — Toledo Blade — It sounds like a lot of the ill will West Virginia held towards Rodriguez in the wake of him leaving for Michigan (plus the whole buyout fiasco) has subsided. Finally.
• Michigan punter Mesko a classroom kind of guy — USA Today — Zoltan never missed a day of school or even a single class from kindergarten until last year, when he finally skipped a lecture in a class he received an A+ in. I have a hard time not skipping lectures at least twice a week. Ridiculous.
• Can Any of Michigan’s Freshman Walk On’s Contribute Right Away? — The Big House Blog — Bob over at the BHB takes a look at Michigan’s walk-on situation. Kelvin Grady seems like the most likely player to contribute, although for the team’s sake I hope we’re not relying on any walk-ons.
• The Big Uglies of Rich Rodriguez: Offensive Line Talent and On-Field Results — When Carcajous Attack! — Another great research piece from When Carcajous Attack!, this time looking at the offensive lines of Rodrigez’s West Virginia teams.
• Cass Tech star Dior Mathis deciding between MSU, Oregon — Detroit News — This headline is a bit misleading, as Mathis says Oregon and Michigan State lead, but Michigan and Miami are still in the hunt. Still, it doesn’t look particularly good for Michigan.
• Lions sign ex-Michigan tight end Casey Butler, cut kicker Swayze Waters — MLive — Um, that’s Carson Butler, fellas. It doesn’t look like Butler will make the roster regardless of his first name, as he was signed because Casey FitzSimmons has been held out of practice with an ankle injury. I’m more disappointed that the Lions cut a kicker named Swayze. Hopefully he ghost-rided his whip out of the parking lot when he got cut (nobody will get that joke, but I had to put it in there).

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Wolverines on the Web Talks About Practice
• Putting Michigan’s Recruiting Class in Context
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wolverines on the Web Goes Old School

Jeremy Gallon will wear #29 for the Maize and Blue.

I’m pretty sure Michigan Sports Center spotted this first: MGoBlue updated the roster from just a spring roster to a full roster for the fall, and all the freshmen are now included. Here’s the full list of freshmen, courtesy of MSC:

2 – J.T. Turner
2 – Vincent Smith
4 – Je’Ron Stokes (I imagine this will be changed, as it would prevent Stokes and Brandon Minor from being on the field at the same time.  Also, Brandon Smith is listed as being #4 as well, and I doubt 3 people would have the same number.) [ed. The roster is now fixed, with Stokes listed as wearing #6]
5 – Tate Forcier
5 – Vladimir Emilien
7 – Brandin Hawthorne
13 – Adrian Witty
14 – Teric Jones
15 – Thomas Gordon
16 – Denard Robinson
26 – Isaiah Bell
27 – Mike Jones
28 – Fitzgerald Toussaint
29 – Jeremy Gallon
34 – Brendan Gibbons
73 – William Campbell
75 – Michael Schofield
76 – Quinton Washington
77 – Taylor Lewan
84 – Cameron Gordon
88 – Craig Roh
90 – Anthony LaLota

Other noteworthy numbers:

4 – Brandon Smith (as alluded to above, he switched from #28)
19 – Kelvin Grady

Now your NCAA 10 gaming experience can be even more realistic, if you ignore the fact half these guys aren’t even in the game (someday, somebody will explain to me why EA Sports insists on a 70-man roster limit with a reason beyond laziness). Interesting to see Taylor Lewan go with Jake Long’s old number and J.T. Turner take Charles Woodson’s. These guys certainly aren’t shying away from the comparisons. As for Denard Robinson taking John Navarre’s 16, well, I’ve got nothing.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum

It's pretty safe to project Tate Forcier as a future starter.

Now that the entire class of 2009 is reportedly qualified (Justin Turner is supposedly on campus and enrolled, which would imply that he is academically eligible), I want to take a post I did on my old website and update it. Back in 2008, I went through 11 years’ worth of Michigan recruiting classes (1993-2003) to see, in the average class, what percentage of players stayed all four years, started at least 12 games, made an All-Big Ten team, etc. Then I took those numbers and used them to predict player outcomes for the Class of 2008. So, in step one of this post, I’m going to update the original numbers to include the Class of 2004, now that all of those players have played out their eligibility. To do this, I’m using Rivals.com’s recruiting data and Mike DeSimone’s recruiting outcomes page. The results:

Overall, Michigan handed out 242 scholarships from 1993-2004. Of those players:
•    117 (48%) started at least twelve games for Michigan
•    52 (21%) were taken in the NFL Draft
•    10 (4.1%) were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft
•    53 (22%) were selected All-Big Ten first-team at least once
•    19 (7.8%) made an All-American team
•    Charles Woodson (.41%) won a Heisman Trophy

As for how many players stuck it out through their four (or five) years:
•    149 (62%) played out their eligibility, meaning 93 (38%) left the team early
•    8 players (3.3%) left early for the NFL
•    3 of those players (David Terrell, Charles Woodson, and Tim Biakabutuka) were taken in the Top 8 of the Draft
•    Alan Branch went with the first pick in round 2, Adrian Arrington with the 30th pick of the 7th round
•    The other 3 (Alex Ofili, Ernest Shazor, and Shantee Orr) went undrafted
•    2 players (Clayton Richard and Drew Henson) left school early to play pro baseball (.8%)
•    9 players (3.7%) were kicked off the team for grade or disciplinary issues (I realize this is way low, but many of Michigan’s disciplinary casualties simply transferred for undisclosed reasons. Take that number with a huge grain of salt)
•    27 players (11%) transferred (not including disciplinary casualties)
•    16 players (6.6%) were not picked up for their fifth year of eligibility (Ryan “Yards After” Mundy falls in this category, since we weren’t going to bring him back before he transferred to West Virginia)
•    16 players (6.6%) had their careers cut short due to injury

Now, I’ll adjust the above numbers for a 22-man recruiting class, which is the size of Michigan’s Class of 2009 (numbers rounded up or down where appropriate, since we’re hopefully dealing with whole football players):

14 will play out their full eligibility
10.5 (that .5 will be determined later) will start at least 12 games
5 will become All-Big Ten first-team players
2 will become All-Americans
5 will be taken in the NFL Draft

After the jump, I’ll take a look at the 2009 recruiting class and make some projections using the above data: Continue reading Projecting Michigan’s 2009 Recruiting Class

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Michigan Promotes Adam Braithwaite to Safeties/Outside Linebackers Coach
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum