[Programming note: I'm headed to Rock the Bells, a ridiculously awesome one-day hip hop music festival, in New York City this weekend. I will be in a car all day on Friday and Sunday and spending all of Saturday at the show. If anything breaks, I'll do my best to put something up when I have some downtime, but this will likely be the only post of the weekend -- if I find some spare time, I might try to squeeze in a special teams preview, but I make no promises. I'll be back with much more season preview material on Monday.]

Returning Contributors: Jordan Kovacs (RS So.), Kevin Leach (RS Jr.), Mike Williams (RS Jr.), Brandin Hawthorne (So.), Vlad Emilien (So.), Floyd Simmons (RS So.), Jared Van Slyke (RS Jr.), Zac Johnson (RS Jr.)
Ready to Contribute: Cameron Gordon (RS Fr.), Thomas Gordon (RS Fr.)
Incoming Freshmen: Josh Furman, Carvin Johnson, Marvin Robinson, Ray Vinopal
Key Departures: Stevie Brown

Returning Player Stats:

The Projected Starters: Redshirt sophomore and former walk-on Jordan Kovacs will line up at bandit — essentially what Michigan called the strong safety last year — after starting eight games and finishing second on the team in tackles in 2009. Kovacs surprisingly emerged when safety Michael Williams was benched for poor play last year and surpassed all expectations for a guy who made the team in open tryouts, showing a great nose for the football, solid hitting ability, and good discipline. Kovacs is somewhat limited physically, however, and his lack of top-end speed was exploited on a couple big plays last season. He probably won’t make any all-conference teams, but Kovacs is a steady player who won’t find himself out of position often, which is all the team can really ask from their safeties right now.

At spur — think Stevie Brown’s linebacker/safety hybrid position from last year — the competition is still ongoing for the starting spot, although it appeared heading into fall camp that redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon had grabbed the top spot on the depth chart. Gordon was a high school quarterback at Cass Tech (where he played alongside classmates Will Campbell and Teric Jones) who only started playing on defense as a senior, so he’s relatively inexperienced at the position. Nicknamed “Prison Abs” by Rich Rodriguez as a recruit, Gordon has the physical tools required to be a solid safety, but understandably needed to work on technique coming out of high school — we’ll see how much progress he has made in that regard this fall.

Redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon (no relation) appears to have locked down the free safety position after an outstanding spring followed a position change from wide receiver, where he practiced in 2009. At 6-3, 207 pounds, Gordon is a physical presence in the middle and has earned a reputation as a hard hitter in practice, although he struggled with his tackling during last weekend’s scrimmage. As a former receiver, Gordon should make some plays with the ball in the air, but there are legitimate questions about whether he has the fluid athleticism needed to be a solid cover guy in center field. Since neither Gordon has ever played a down of college football, we will have to wait until the fall to see how they’ll hold up in game conditions.

The Competition: While Kovacs and Cameron Gordon look to have put a stranglehold on their respective positions, there is still a lot of competition at Thomas Gordon’s spur position. Redshirt junior Kevin Leach is a former walk-on linebacker who moved to spur in the spring, and he has game experience after recording 46 tackles in 2009. Like Kovacs, Leach is pretty limited physically in comparison to his scholarship counterparts, but he makes solid decisions on the field, which could give him the chance to play a big role again this fall.

Also competing to start at spur are two highly-touted freshmen, Josh Furman and Marvin Robinson, who each possess tremendous athletic ability. Furman is a speedster who played running back and linebacker in high school, and at 6-2, 207 pounds he has the size to be a physical presence at safety. He was regarded as a raw prospect in need of a lot of coaching, however, which could limit his playing time, especially early in the season. Robinson lacks Furman’s top-end speed, but otherwise is a very good athlete and a strong physical presence. He could see time at any of the three safety spots, and I expect he’ll see the field a fair amount this fall. Redshirt junior walk-on Floyd Simmons brief time at linebacker while mostly contributing on special teams in 2009, and he is also in the mix at spur, although I’d be surprised if Rodriguez decided to go with two walk-ons for the box safety positions.

Another true freshman, Carvin Johnson, could also see the field at safety or potentially cornerback, where he has seen some practice time recently. Johnson was an unknown recruit when he committed to Michigan, but the recruiting buzz around him picked up significantly afterward — it appears Rich Rodriguez and his staff did very well in unearthing Johnson from Louisiana. He was known as a ball-hawking safety who was very strong in run support in high school, but like so may other safeties on the roster he may not have the elite speed necessary to be strong in deep coverage — like MGoBrian, I thought he was ticketed for a spot at spur or bandit until practice reports indicated otherwise. Again, we’ll have to see where he ends up.

At free safety, sophomore and former four-star recruit Vlad Emilien is Cameron Gordon’s closest competition. Emilien burned his redshirt to make one special teams tackle last season after missing his entire senior year of high school with a torn ACL — one day, someone will have to explain why college coaches routinely burn redshirts on players who make a few appearances on special teams. Anyways, Emilien is now a sophomore, but there are still concerns about that senior year injury and its lingering effects after Emilien has been victimized on big plays in each of the last two spring games — he may not have the speed needed to cover deep center field in this defense. With no film on him at safety from the past two years, Emilien is yet another unknown quantity at the safety position.

Others: Redshirt junior Michael Williams is a former Army All-American recruit who saw a lot of playing time at free safety last season, but despite recording 56 tackles he was benched for routinely being out of position and allowing big plays. Williams was supposed to be in the mix to start at spur this year, but reports from spring and fall camps have indicated that he has fallen behind the competition. He has all the physical tools needed to be the answer at any of the safety positions, but it appears he still hasn’t put it together enough mentally to earn the coaching staff’s trust.

Sophomore Brandin Hawthorne somehow managed to use up his redshirt with even less of an impact than Emilien, appearing on special teams in four games last season without recording a tackle. Hawthorne was a wiry linebacker in high school who was initially expected to compete for time at one of the strong safety positions, but when Emilien went down with an injury in the spring he backed up Cameron Gordon at free safety. Wherever he ends up, he’ll have to pass several players on the depth chart before he sees the field in any role beyond special teams in 2010.

A pair of walk-ons, Jared Van Slyke and Zac Johnson, have contributed on special teams, but neither is expected to see the field much on defense this season. True freshman Ray Vinopal was the lowest-rated recruit in the 2010 class — he might have a promising future, but I’d be very surprised if he saw anything more than mop-up and special teams duty this fall.

Outlook: Much like at cornerback, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the safety position for Michigan heading into the fall. Kovacs should be a solid, but unspectacular, presence at bandit, while the two Gordons appear physically ready to make an impact at the collegiate level but lack real game experience. There is so much unknown here that it seems fruitless to even try forecasting how this unit will perform, but it’s safe to assume that there will be some growing pains with so much inexperience on the field, especially as the coaches look for the right combination of players in the secondary. How the players and the staff adjust to those bumps in the road will play a huge role in Michigan’s success in 2010.

Previous Position Previews: Quarterback, Running Back, Outside Receiver, Slot Receiver, Tight End, Offensive Tackle, Interior Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Linebacker, Cornerback

For every position preview, click here or hit the “2010 Position Previews” tag at the bottom of the post.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• Position Preview: Linebacker
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring
• Position Threat Levels: Severe

Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low”,  “Guarded”, “Elevated” , and “High” threat categories, and today, we we end with the “Severe” position groups. Duck and cover, everyone.

Cornerback: No surprise here — with the early departure of Donovan Warren from an already-disappointing secondary, cornerback is a major area of concern heading into the fall. The team will rely heavily on senior Troy Woolfolk, who is back at corner after bouncing between the position and safety last season. He is perhaps the only player in Michigan’s secondary who we can definitely expect to start every game when he’s healthy (Cam Gordon may also fall under this category, but he’s still a redshirt freshman who just switched from wideout to safety), and he’ll be relied upon to shut down the opposition’s top receiver. Woolfolk doesn’t quite measure up to Michigan’s usual standard of a #1 corner (think Law, Woodson, Jackson, Hall, and even Warren), but he should be a reliable starter.

The other starting spot should be hotly contested perhaps even during the season, as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will have to hold off competition from redshirt freshman Justin Turner, senior James Rogers, and a host of talented true freshmen. Floyd has appeared much-improved this spring after looking overmatched at times in 2009, but his ceiling is relatively low compared to the players competing for his spot. Turner could be ticketed for safety, as he has looked big and a little slow for a corner this spring, but he was a highly-touted recruit who has the potential to be a special player. As for the true freshmen, Michigan secured a pair of blue-chippers in Cullen Christian and Demar Dorsey — both should see the field early and often when they get to Ann Arbor, although it appears that Dorsey has a large uphill climb with regards to qualifying academically. Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott were both three-star recruits — if either is immediately thrust into a major role, things have probably gone very wrong.

The good news at corner is that Michigan is filling in the depth chart with talented young players after being burned by depth issues the past couple seasons. The bad news is that, besides Woolfolk, there isn’t a proven corner on the team right now. That’s a major concern for anyone who has witnessed the Wolverines’ secondary play of recent years.

Safety: Have I mentioned that last year’s secondary was disappointing? Well, a cursory look at this year’s projected depth chart does little to dissuade any fears that Michigan’s back five (remember, 3-3-5 defense this year) won’t be the weak point of the team again in 2010. Yes, Cameron Gordon has emerged as a potential impact player at free safety — he’s still a redshirt freshman who was playing wide receiver last season. That’s your last line of defense. Although it appears Gordon has the free safety position locked down, he will get some competition from sophomore Vlad Emilien and potentially freshman Carvin Johnson and redshirt freshman Brandin Hawthorne in the fall. Regardless, a first-time starter will be the man tasked with protecting Michigan from big plays over the top — I can’t be the only person who is somewhat petrified by this.

As for the box (strong) safeties, it looks like redshirt sophomore, and former walk-on, Jordan Kovacs will start on one side, while redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon is your current leader across from Kovacs. Competition will be heavy for these spots, however — redshirt junior Mike Williams, freshmen Marvin Robinson and Josh Furman, redshirt sophomore Floyd Simmons, and sophomores Mike Jones and Teric Jones will all get a shot at playing time. Of those guys, I’d expect Robinson and Furman to have the best shot at unseating one of the starters, although the coaching staff could be (legitimately) wary of plugging in a true freshman into an already-green secondary. Regardless of who starts, the team will be heavy on youth and light on experience at safety.

Kicker: Michigan signed kicker Brendan Gibbons to a scholarship in the class of 2009, with the expectation that he would start from day one. Instead, walk-on Jason Olesnavage handled the kicking duties last season, and performed well, but Gibbons has once again failed to grab the starting job against a pair of walk-ons in Kris Pauloski and Scott Schrimscher. There’s not a whole lot to analyze here: Rich Rodriguez has said the kicking game has been inconsistent, and that’s never a good sign when you’re looking at a first-time starter at kicker no matter who wins the job. With so much pressure to win games, and a defense that will likely give up its fair share of points, Michigan can’t afford to miss out on points in the kicking game. Let’s all hope that Gibbons, or one of the walk-ons, can step up and at least be somewhat reliable, or else Rodriguez’s very job could hang on a kick or two this season.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Safety
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
• Brandon Smith Transferring, and Another Look at the 2010 Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be examining the foundation for the 2010 Michigan Wolverines: the five recruiting classes, from 2006 to 2010, that comprise the team. So far, I’ve examined the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. Today, I move on to this year’s sophomores and redshirt freshmen from the class of 2009:

Class of 2009 (Sorted by Rivals.com Rating):

The Upshot:

I’ve been doing “Who’s Left” and “Who’s Gone” for the last few classes, but in this case that seems unnecessary. So far the 2009 class has had just one loss: Adrian Witty, who couldn’t get academically qualified. So, let’s go straight to the analysis.

It goes without saying that it is far too early to evaluate a class that has all of one collegiate season under their belts, but the class of 2009 has already had a large impact on the field. That impact, of course, starts with the two quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson — both saw the field last year as true freshmen, and both showed flashes of brilliance while experiencing the expected freshman growing pains. Craig Roh stepped onto campus in the fall and immediately took over the starting quick end position, and is making the transition to outside linebacker this year. He looks like an all-conference candidate, and should be a leader on the defense for the next few years. Vincent Smith, surprisingly, was the other true freshman to have a major impact, filling in admirably when Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were injured and putting himself in position to start at tailback in 2010. Will Campbell, Je’Ron Stokes, Vlad Emilien, Brandin Hawthorne, Teric Jones, and Mike Jones all saw the field in some capacity last season as well — Campbell should start at nose tackle this season, and the other five will all battle for starting spots as well.

Several other players from this class will compete for snaps this fall after taking a redshirt year in 2009. Jeremy Gallon looked solid in the spring game and should have an impact in the slot and as a returner. Taylor Lewan has emerged as the leading candidate to take over the left tackle position, despite not playing on the offensive line until his senior year of high school — he could be a very special player with his huge frame and potential. Fitzgerald Toussaint is in the mix in a crowded offensive backfield, and Thomas Gordon has been a spring surprise at one of the strong safety positions in the new 3-3-5 defense — both could conceivably start, though Gordon has a better chance of doing so than Toussaint. Isaiah Bell has bulked up to 237 pounds and is fighting for playing time at linebacker, while Anthony LaLota is now a solid 263 pounds and could be in the rotation along the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Michael Schofield are both battling for playing time on the offensive line, but they’re each probably a year or two away from taking over a starting job. Brendan Gibbons will likely be the starting kicker in the fall, as he is the only scholarship kicker on the roster. Finally, Cameron Gordon has been the breakout player of the spring after moving over to the defense from wide receiver — he appears to have solidified himself as the starter at free safety, and could be the type of ball-hawking, hard-hitting player Michigan has sorely lacked at the position.

The jury is still out on one player in particular: Justin Turner, who has just as much recruiting hype as Will Campbell, didn’t see the field last year after arriving late and out of shape in the fall after struggling to qualify, and this spring has not been able to seize the open cornerback job over J.T. Floyd and James Rogers. Turner looks like he has outgrown the cornerback position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up at safety when this year’s crop of freshmen, which includes several cornerback prospects, hits campus.

Overall, this class has been a very solid one — Forcier, Robinson, and Roh provided early impact, several players will see the field in major roles this fall, and there is great potential for the future in players like Campbell, Lewan, Cameron Gordon, Vincent Smith, and more. After a three-year run of disappointing recruiting classes, the class of 2009 should be the one to lead the turnaround this program desperately needs.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2006 Recruiting Class
• Position Preview: Defensive Tackle
• Position Preview: Safety
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

Back in February, I took an early stab at projecting the offensive and defensive depth charts for the fall. Now that spring practice is underway and the new roster has been released, there’s a lot more information available about how Michigan will line up and who will be lining up where. So, I’ve taken another opportunity to make myself look really foolish in the fall, and updated my projected depth chart to reflect these changes. Here are a few notes on the changes:

OFFENSE

One player who has a lot of buzz surrounding him so far in spring is running back Mike Cox, whose running skills seem to be catching up to his outstanding athleticism and frame. For now, I’ve moved Cox up to second on the depth chart with Michael Shaw, behind the injured Vincent Smith. With all the talented players the Wolverines have at running back, I expect to see a fair amount of running back by committee come fall, and Cox should be one of the backs in the mix for carries.

At receiver, Roy Roundtree has been practicing at outside receiver, but I expect him to move back into the slot when Junior Hemingway returns healthy in the fall. Word from practice is that Roundtree and Martavious Odoms have become a dangerous combination when both see the field at the same time, so it would not be a surprise to see Michigan start two slot receivers next season. We’ll have to wait and see if that has any effect on the tight end position, but for now I’m keeping Roundtree as the top slot in my depth chart along with Odoms — down the road, I may split the slots into two positions.

On the line, it sounds like Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield are the players battling for the two tackle positions, so I’ve changed the depth chart to reflect that competition. Patrick Omameh, who some (including myself) originally thought would move out to tackle this season, has been playing (and impressing) at guard. I have him projected as the starter at right guard, with the experienced Huyge and Dorrestein at tackle — I wouldn’t be surprised if Lewan grabs one of the tackle spots, but he’s a redshirt freshman who is still filling out his massive frame, so for now I have him backing up Huyge.

DEFENSE

The big change here is the alignment — I recommend checking out this helpful post from Touch the Banner to get more familiar with the slight move to more of a 4-2-5 look:

From left to right along the line should be Ryan Van Bergen, Will Campbell, Mike Martin (injured for spring practice, so Greg Banks is playing there right now), and Craig Roh. The two interior linebackers are Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton, if they hold on to their positions. The weak side safety in the above graph is what Michigan is calling the “spur” position — right now, Mike Williams and Brandin Hawthorne appear to be the most likely players to start there, with Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon and probably Josh Furman (when he arrives in the fall) also competing at the position. The strong safety — Touch the Banner calls it the “boundary” safety, but I’ll use the more common term to save confusion — appears to be Jordan Kovacs’ position to lose, although Marvin Robinson could compete for time there when he enrolls in the fall. Vlad Emilien has received the first-team reps so far at free — deep — safety, although Cameron Gordon impressed when Emilien sat out with a minor injury this week. If Troy Woolfolk were to move back to safety, this would likely be his spot.

At cornerback, Woolfolk is obviously holding down one spot, and I’ll place him there in the depth chart until he moves (if he moves) to safety. J.T. Floyd has been getting the first-team reps at the other corner spot, and has impressed so far, although J.T. Turner will make a strong push for that starting role. Of course, the competition at corner will not be fully settled until the fall, when Demar Dorsey, Cullen Christian, Terrence Talbott, and Courtney Avery arrive on campus.

For the full, updated depth chart, hit the “Football Depth Chart” tab at the top of the screen, or simply click here.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Safety
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Five Players With the Most to Gain in Spring Practice

Despite returning 18 players who saw time as a starter last season, Michigan heads into the spring with a lot of uncertainty throughout their depth chart. Here are five players who I think stand to gain the most if they can perform well in spring ball:

1. Je’Ron Stokes, Soph. WR: Michigan may have a logjam at slot receiver, but on the outside the competitions is wide open. With the departure of Greg Mathews and the disappointing production last year from returners Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum, there will be ample opportunity for the younger wideouts on the Wolverines to earn playing time, and possibly even a starting role, this season. Stokes may be the most likely of Michigan’s underclassmen receivers to take advantage of that opportunity — he saw sporadic playing time as a true freshman last season and was Rivals.com’s 104th-ranked player overall in the class of 2009. Stokes has the speed to be the deep threat Michigan has been missing since the departure of Mario Manningham, and if he can live up to his blue-chip recruit status, he could be a three-year starter for the Wolverines.
2. Brandin Hawthorne, Soph. LB/S: With Michigan moving to more of a 4-2-5 look on defense this season, Hawthorne could be the guy to replace Stevie Brown at a linebacker/safety hybrid position. Hawthorne played linebacker in high school, but came into Michigan last season undersized even by safety standards. Now, at 6-0, 202 pounds, Hawthorne can play the boundary safety role, and will most likely compete with Mike Williams and Jordan Kovacs at the position. Williams was perhaps the biggest disappointment on a very disappointing defense last year, and Kovacs is still limited athletically, so there is definitely an opportunity for Hawthorne to step in and take a starting spot with a strong spring performance.
3. Michael Cox, RS Soph. RB: With Vincent Smith sitting out spring practice while he recovers from a torn ACL, the running back position is wide open. Junior Michael Shaw, redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint, and early enrollees Austin White and Stephen Hopkins will all compete for playing time, but don’t overlook the potential for Cox to see ample snaps with the first team this spring. At 6-0, 210 pounds and with ideal athleticism for a running back (and without the injury history of Shaw or Toussaint), the former three-star prospect could vault himself from seldom-used backup to starting tailback if he can translate that athleticism and size to the football field.
4. J.B. Fitzgerald, Jr. LB: Even though Michigan returns two fifth-year seniors at inside linebacker, the position is far from stable — Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton both struggled mightily last season, opening up the possibility for one of Michigan’s younger linebackers to prove themselves worthy of a starting spot. Fitzgerald showed flashes of potential last season when filling in for Ezeh, displaying an aggression that the Wolverines have lacked with Ezeh at middle linebacker. If he can harness that aggression and cut down on his mistakes, Fitzgerald could leave Michigan with little choice but to unseat Ezeh and give the junior a shot to solidify Michigan’s linebacker group.
5. Greg Banks, RS Sr. DT/DE: With the departure of Brandon Graham, playing time has opened up along the defensive line as well. Banks has yet to capitalize on his chances to see extended snaps in his Michigan career, but at 6-4, 274 pounds, he could add a lot of versatility to the line this year. Rich Rodriguez mentioned Banks as a candidate to see time at Graham’s vacated end spot, and Banks is already listed on the roster as a defensive tackle, where he could see time at Ryan Van Bergen’s old position (assuming that Van Bergen slides over to DE) as well. I still expect Michigan to roll out a starting line of Mike Martin, Will Campbell, and Van Bergen, but Banks could earn himself a role as a valuable contributor if he proves himself in his final season.

I should mention a few guys who could just as easily have made this list: Toussaint, Mike Jones, Isaiah Bell, Vlad Emilien, Justin Turner, J.T. Floyd, Cameron Gordon, Quinton Washington, Ricky Barnum, Patrick Omameh, and Taylor Lewan are all fighting for their first shot to become full-time starters, and players like White, Hopkins, Jeremy Gallon, and Anthony LaLota are looking to contribute in the fall as well.

Tomorrow, I’ll look at the five players who have the most to lose this spring. With so many position battles and fresh faces, it should be a very interesting spring.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Spring Football: Five Players I’ll Be Watching
• Five Players With the Most to Lose in Spring Practice
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

I had the privilege of attending Michigan’s first spring practice yesterday, along with Rich Rodriguez’s press conference. Before I get into my quick analysis of the presser and practice, I should make note of one thing: the media access to practice was limited to a 12-minute period when the team was split into position groups and doing drills. Between trying to get some decent photos and trying to decipher which drill I should be paying attention to (not to mention trying to figure out, with my complete lack of football-playing background, if players were actually doing the drills correctly), it was hard to glean much information of note from the actual practice. In fact, I really only took one thing away from the practice session itself, a point I’ll bring up later. I think I can speak for pretty much all the media in attendance when I say not to put a whole lot of stock into what you read about this spring practice — again, we saw 12 minutes of drills with the team split into position groups and spread across two football fields. Just making a note of that before I go into what I saw, and heard, yesterday.

With that out of the way, I’ll break down the one thing of note I saw and post some pictures, as well as give some highlights from the presser and new numbers/weights from the spankin’ new official spring roster.

THE THING OF NOTE

When I realized that I had no hope of seeing or understanding even 10% of what was happening in practice, I turned my focus to the quarterbacks and watched them go through a few drills. It didn’t take a Lombardian knowledge of football to see who will be the clear-cut starter for Michigan next season: Tate Forcier simply threw the best ball of any of the quarterbacks, and it wasn’t close. We all knew he would be the most accurate quarterback, but the zip he put on his throws also was very impressive — it’s safe to say his shoulder has healed up just fine.

Tell me something I don’t already know, you say. Well, for one, Devin Gardner’s mechanics have definitely improved since the end of his senior season at Inkster — he is releasing the ball at a much higher point than in any of his highlight videos from high school. Watching him throw, however, you can tell that he’s still really thinking about the mechanics of throwing, and his accuracy just isn’t at the level he’d need it to be to seriously challenge for playing time. Now, all of the drills we were able to see involved the quarterback throwing from the pocket, so we didn’t get to see Gardner show off his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but after watching Gardner today I’d be very surprised if he got extended playing time unless Forcier goes down with an injury. It looks like he could really use a redshirt year to get his mechanics to the point where his throwing motion comes naturally to him, as well as to learn the offense.

As for Denard Robinson, he also had some struggles with accuracy, especially on deep passes. Rich Rodriguez was with the quarterbacks during the drills that we watched, and kept harping on the quarterbacks to “drop the ball in the bucket” — in other words, to put a lot of air under the ball so it “drops” into the receiver’s hands. Gardner and Robinson had their struggles with that concept, and both quarterbacks also missed a few intermediate throws that you’d hope they will hit once the spring game, and obviously the fall, comes around. The good news is that both quarterbacks, as well as Forcier, did well hitting tailbacks in stride when they practiced swing passes out of the backfield. That may seem trivial, but those passes are an important part of this offense, and hitting a running back in stride can be the difference between a big gain and a backwards lateral (think Notre Dame, 2008).

RICH ROD’S PRESSER

I’ll keep this rather brief, as Tim has already posted a very thorough rundown over at MGoBlog, but here are some of the highlights from Rodriguez’s pre-practice press conference:

• Vincent Smith and David Molk are both out for the spring with knee injuries, but Rodriguez said they were progressing well in rehab and expected them to do “limited activities” by the end of spring ball.
• Rodriguez said he expected to “do some different things with Denard,” since he thought a player with Robinson’s athletic and football abilities shouldn’t be spending too much time on the bench. He also clarified that Denard would likely be seeing those extra snaps at receiver, since the Wolverines already have a lot of bodies at running back.
• Nick Sheridan will not be playing this season — he is finishing up school and preparing for a career in coaching. It sounds like he’ll be a graduate assistant at some point, but Sheridan can’t be a GA right now since he’s finishing up his undergraduate degree. He was hanging around practice in street clothes, however. Bryan Wright will also not be using his final season of eligibility, citing back problems as the reason to end his playing career.
• There will be an emphasis on playing more people on defense this season, now that there is a healthy amount of competition at pretty much every position. Rodriguez said Greg Robinson will be working on keeping his schemes relatively simple so the plethora of freshmen competing for spots can contribute immediately.
• Both Troy Woolfolk and Justin Turner are practicing at cornerback, but Rodriguez did say there was a possibility of either player also seeing time at safety.

NEW SPRING ROSTER

MGoBlog also has a breakdown of the weight changes in the new spring roster, so I won’t go into too much detail here either, but I thought I’d mention these interesting points:

• When asked if any players stood out for their offseason condition, Rodriguez cited a trio of redshirt freshmen linemen: Quinton Washington, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. Washington dropped an impressive amount of weight, going from 325 down to 307, while Lewan (283, up from 268) and Schofield (281, also up from 268) each added some needed pounds. Washington slimming down should immediately put him in the running for a starting role, while Lewan and Schofield probably still need to add a couple pounds (certainly possible before the fall) before they’re in that same discussion.
• There were gains pretty much across the board on both sides of the ball. Junior Hemingway is now a very robust 227 pounds — I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or not until we see him running full speed. Forcier gained six pounds, up to 194, which hopefully will protect him a little bit more from injury. On defense, Will Campbell is now up to 324 pounds, and he certainly passed the eye test — the guy is a physical specimen now and is worlds away from how he looked when he enrolled as a freshman. Craig Roh also added weight, and at 249 pounds he is now in the discussion at defensive end, a spot he was far too light for last season (Rodriguez specifically stated that Roh could see snaps at DE in the presser).
• Forcier still is wearing 5, even though I saw some rumors floating around that he would be switching to 4, his high school number. Instead, Cameron Gordon has taken that number, as he has switched officially over to safety. Teric Jones has also moved to safety, and Brandin Hawthorne is listed at the position as well — with Michigan slightly tweaking their defense, I’m pretty sure Stevie Brown’s position was reclassified from linebacker to safety, although I could be wrong there. If that is in fact true, it looks like that position battle will come down to Hawthorne, Mike Williams, and possibly Jordan Kovacs. Isaiah Bell is now up to 237 pounds and is listed at linebacker, as is Mike Jones, despite being only 207 right now.

FRESHMAN NUMBERS [end_columns]

PHOTOS

If you want to see more photos from today’s practice, I put up an album over on photobucket. They’re mostly of the quarterbacks, since that’s who I was watching for most of the time. If you want to see why Devin Gardner is such an intriguing prospect, check out the last photo: he just towers over everybody else.

That’s all I have for now. I’ll be updating the projected depth chart by the end of this weekend to reflect any changes in position or number. Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day (in a safe but enjoyable fashion, I hope).

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• Spring Football: Five Players I’ll Be Watching
• Five Players With the Most to Gain in Spring Practice
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Yesterday, I took a look at the offense. Today, it’s the defense’s turn.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Defensive Line: Despite the loss of Brandon Graham, the defensive line should be the best unit for the Michigan defense in 2010. The key will be the development of sophomore Will Campbell, who has the size and talent to be a very good nose tackle. With Campbell eating space in the middle, junior Mike Martin can slide over the DT position played by Ryan Van Bergen last season, which is more suitable for a player of his size and skill set. Van Bergen, a natural end, should have no problem moving to Graham’s vacated DE spot. Throw in a full offseason of weight training for sophomore Craig Roh, who started at the Quick position last season despite not enrolling early, and a unit that was noticeably undersized in 2009 should be athletic and big in 2010. As for the backups, redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota will be a player to watch at defensive end, while senior Renaldo Sagesse will likely be the primary backup at both tackle positions. There is a lot of talent among the incoming freshmen, but the rotation could be tough to crack for players who are a little undersized (Wilkins, Black, Talbott) or out of shape (Ash, who is rumored to currently weigh over 300 pounds). Seniors Adam Patterson and Greg Banks will provide depth, but given their careers to date, I wouldn’t expect much more than that from them.

Linebacker: Michigan has a lot of experience at linebacker, but you could say the same about last year’s disappointing unit. Seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are your prohibitive favorites to start in the middle and on the weak side, respectively, but their underwhelming performances last season have opened up an opportunity for younger players to earn a starting role. Junior J.B. Fitzgerald saw playing time last season when Ezeh was benched, and with another season of experience he probably has the best shot at unseating one of the senior linebackers, although athletic redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens and former walk-on Kevin Leach will also compete for snaps. The position battle to watch may be over at spinner, where the graduation of Stevie Brown has opened a starting spot. Second-year players Isaiah Bell, Brandin Hawthorne, and Mike Jones all practiced at spinner last year, and all three should get an opportunity to see a lot of playing time in 2010 (although Bell might have grown into the WLB spot — he’s got 15-20 pounds on Hawthorne and Jones). I haven’t seen any of the three since last spring, but I like Hawthorne — the only one of the three to play linebacker in high school, and a great athlete — as the favorite for the spinner position. Of the true freshmen, Josh Furman probably has the best shot of earning playing time, also at the spinner position, while we can expect Antonio Kinard and Jake Ryan to redshirt in 2010.

Secondary: This is where things get crazy. The only guarantee for Michigan’s 2010 secondary is that Troy Woolfolk will start — only we don’t know whether he’ll be starting at cornerback or safety. I think Woolfolk will end up at safety for a couple reasons: (1) the safeties have to make pre-snap checks, something that I trust a senior to do much more than a freshman and (2) cornerback is a much easier position to come in and play immediately as a freshman. I expect Woolfolk to start at strong safety (the deep safety in Michigan’s defense) alongside redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien — a player some thought should have seen the field in 2009 — at free safety. True freshmen Marvin Robinson and Carvin Johnson, redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, redshirt sophomore Jordan Kovacs and junior Mike Williams will also compete for a spot at safety, but I think Emilien will ultimately win the job (in this case, it might be an advantage to have not played last year).

At corner, I expect redshirt freshman J.T. Turner — one of the highest-rated prospects Michigan brought in last year and a standout on the scout team — to start, and true freshman Demar Dorsey is too talented to keep off the field next season. True freshmen Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott, as well as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, will also compete for playing time, but I think the pure talent of Turner and Dorsey will be a lot to overcome. If you’re keeping score, that means I think Michigan will start a senior, two redshirt freshmen, and a true freshman in their secondary next year. The talent level and the experience are both scary, but in very different senses of the word.

Punter: True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will have the first shot at the vacated punter position, and I expect he’ll be the guy to take over from the immortal Zoltan Mesko. Kickoff specialist Bryan Wright has a big leg and could be called upon to handle punting duties if, for some reason, Hagerup doesn’t win the job.

Similar Posts:

• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
• Brandon Smith Transferring, and Another Look at the 2010 Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring
• Position Threat Levels: Severe
• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Defense

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Cornerback
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
• Brandon Smith Transferring, and Another Look at the 2010 Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

I’m pretty sure Michigan Sports Center spotted this first: MGoBlue updated the roster from just a spring roster to a full roster for the fall, and all the freshmen are now included. Here’s the full list of freshmen, courtesy of MSC:

2 – J.T. Turner
2 – Vincent Smith
4 – Je’Ron Stokes (I imagine this will be changed, as it would prevent Stokes and Brandon Minor from being on the field at the same time.  Also, Brandon Smith is listed as being #4 as well, and I doubt 3 people would have the same number.) [ed. The roster is now fixed, with Stokes listed as wearing #6]
5 – Tate Forcier
5 – Vladimir Emilien
7 – Brandin Hawthorne
13 – Adrian Witty
14 – Teric Jones
15 – Thomas Gordon
16 – Denard Robinson
26 – Isaiah Bell
27 – Mike Jones
28 – Fitzgerald Toussaint
29 – Jeremy Gallon
34 – Brendan Gibbons
73 – William Campbell
75 – Michael Schofield
76 – Quinton Washington
77 – Taylor Lewan
84 – Cameron Gordon
88 – Craig Roh
90 – Anthony LaLota

Other noteworthy numbers:

4 – Brandon Smith (as alluded to above, he switched from #28)
19 – Kelvin Grady

Now your NCAA 10 gaming experience can be even more realistic, if you ignore the fact half these guys aren’t even in the game (someday, somebody will explain to me why EA Sports insists on a 70-man roster limit with a reason beyond laziness). Interesting to see Taylor Lewan go with Jake Long’s old number and J.T. Turner take Charles Woodson’s. These guys certainly aren’t shying away from the comparisons. As for Denard Robinson taking John Navarre’s 16, well, I’ve got nothing.

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• Impressions from the First Spring Practice
• Five Players With the Most to Gain in Spring Practice
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

Now that the entire class of 2009 is reportedly qualified (Justin Turner is supposedly on campus and enrolled, which would imply that he is academically eligible), I want to take a post I did on my old website and update it. Back in 2008, I went through 11 years’ worth of Michigan recruiting classes (1993-2003) to see, in the average class, what percentage of players stayed all four years, started at least 12 games, made an All-Big Ten team, etc. Then I took those numbers and used them to predict player outcomes for the Class of 2008. So, in step one of this post, I’m going to update the original numbers to include the Class of 2004, now that all of those players have played out their eligibility. To do this, I’m using Rivals.com’s recruiting data and Mike DeSimone’s recruiting outcomes page. The results:

Overall, Michigan handed out 242 scholarships from 1993-2004. Of those players:
•    117 (48%) started at least twelve games for Michigan
•    52 (21%) were taken in the NFL Draft
•    10 (4.1%) were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft
•    53 (22%) were selected All-Big Ten first-team at least once
•    19 (7.8%) made an All-American team
•    Charles Woodson (.41%) won a Heisman Trophy

As for how many players stuck it out through their four (or five) years:
•    149 (62%) played out their eligibility, meaning 93 (38%) left the team early
•    8 players (3.3%) left early for the NFL
•    3 of those players (David Terrell, Charles Woodson, and Tim Biakabutuka) were taken in the Top 8 of the Draft
•    Alan Branch went with the first pick in round 2, Adrian Arrington with the 30th pick of the 7th round
•    The other 3 (Alex Ofili, Ernest Shazor, and Shantee Orr) went undrafted
•    2 players (Clayton Richard and Drew Henson) left school early to play pro baseball (.8%)
•    9 players (3.7%) were kicked off the team for grade or disciplinary issues (I realize this is way low, but many of Michigan’s disciplinary casualties simply transferred for undisclosed reasons. Take that number with a huge grain of salt)
•    27 players (11%) transferred (not including disciplinary casualties)
•    16 players (6.6%) were not picked up for their fifth year of eligibility (Ryan “Yards After” Mundy falls in this category, since we weren’t going to bring him back before he transferred to West Virginia)
•    16 players (6.6%) had their careers cut short due to injury

Now, I’ll adjust the above numbers for a 22-man recruiting class, which is the size of Michigan’s Class of 2009 (numbers rounded up or down where appropriate, since we’re hopefully dealing with whole football players):

14 will play out their full eligibility
10.5 (that .5 will be determined later) will start at least 12 games
5 will become All-Big Ten first-team players
2 will become All-Americans
5 will be taken in the NFL Draft

After the jump, I’ll take a look at the 2009 recruiting class and make some projections using the above data:

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2007 Recruiting Class
• The Foundation: A Look at the 2008 Recruiting Class
• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• The 2008 Recruiting Class, Now 17 Strong