Senior Troy Woolfolk could start at either cornerback or safety.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Yesterday, I took a look at the offense. Today, it’s the defense’s turn.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Defensive Line: Despite the loss of Brandon Graham, the defensive line should be the best unit for the Michigan defense in 2010. The key will be the development of sophomore Will Campbell, who has the size and talent to be a very good nose tackle. With Campbell eating space in the middle, junior Mike Martin can slide over the DT position played by Ryan Van Bergen last season, which is more suitable for a player of his size and skill set. Van Bergen, a natural end, should have no problem moving to Graham’s vacated DE spot. Throw in a full offseason of weight training for sophomore Craig Roh, who started at the Quick position last season despite not enrolling early, and a unit that was noticeably undersized in 2009 should be athletic and big in 2010. As for the backups, redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota will be a player to watch at defensive end, while senior Renaldo Sagesse will likely be the primary backup at both tackle positions. There is a lot of talent among the incoming freshmen, but the rotation could be tough to crack for players who are a little undersized (Wilkins, Black, Talbott) or out of shape (Ash, who is rumored to currently weigh over 300 pounds). Seniors Adam Patterson and Greg Banks will provide depth, but given their careers to date, I wouldn’t expect much more than that from them.

Linebacker: Michigan has a lot of experience at linebacker, but you could say the same about last year’s disappointing unit. Seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are your prohibitive favorites to start in the middle and on the weak side, respectively, but their underwhelming performances last season have opened up an opportunity for younger players to earn a starting role. Junior J.B. Fitzgerald saw playing time last season when Ezeh was benched, and with another season of experience he probably has the best shot at unseating one of the senior linebackers, although athletic redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens and former walk-on Kevin Leach will also compete for snaps. The position battle to watch may be over at spinner, where the graduation of Stevie Brown has opened a starting spot. Second-year players Isaiah Bell, Brandin Hawthorne, and Mike Jones all practiced at spinner last year, and all three should get an opportunity to see a lot of playing time in 2010 (although Bell might have grown into the WLB spot — he’s got 15-20 pounds on Hawthorne and Jones). I haven’t seen any of the three since last spring, but I like Hawthorne — the only one of the three to play linebacker in high school, and a great athlete — as the favorite for the spinner position. Of the true freshmen, Josh Furman probably has the best shot of earning playing time, also at the spinner position, while we can expect Antonio Kinard and Jake Ryan to redshirt in 2010.

Secondary: This is where things get crazy. The only guarantee for Michigan’s 2010 secondary is that Troy Woolfolk will start — only we don’t know whether he’ll be starting at cornerback or safety. I think Woolfolk will end up at safety for a couple reasons: (1) the safeties have to make pre-snap checks, something that I trust a senior to do much more than a freshman and (2) cornerback is a much easier position to come in and play immediately as a freshman. I expect Woolfolk to start at strong safety (the deep safety in Michigan’s defense) alongside redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien — a player some thought should have seen the field in 2009 — at free safety. True freshmen Marvin Robinson and Carvin Johnson, redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, redshirt sophomore Jordan Kovacs and junior Mike Williams will also compete for a spot at safety, but I think Emilien will ultimately win the job (in this case, it might be an advantage to have not played last year).

At corner, I expect redshirt freshman J.T. Turner — one of the highest-rated prospects Michigan brought in last year and a standout on the scout team — to start, and true freshman Demar Dorsey is too talented to keep off the field next season. True freshmen Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott, as well as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, will also compete for playing time, but I think the pure talent of Turner and Dorsey will be a lot to overcome. If you’re keeping score, that means I think Michigan will start a senior, two redshirt freshmen, and a true freshman in their secondary next year. The talent level and the experience are both scary, but in very different senses of the word.

Punter: True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will have the first shot at the vacated punter position, and I expect he’ll be the guy to take over from the immortal Zoltan Mesko. Kickoff specialist Bryan Wright has a big leg and could be called upon to handle punting duties if, for some reason, Hagerup doesn’t win the job.

Similar Posts:

• Knight to Rutgers & Your Signing Day Primer
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Recruiting Update: Part II (Rounding Out the Class)
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Please don't change your mind. Please.

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Similar Posts:

• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defensive Ends
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Cornerbacks
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Recruiting Update: Part II (Rounding Out the Class)
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defense

Jeremy Gallon will wear #29 for the Maize and Blue.

I’m pretty sure Michigan Sports Center spotted this first: MGoBlue updated the roster from just a spring roster to a full roster for the fall, and all the freshmen are now included. Here’s the full list of freshmen, courtesy of MSC:

2 – J.T. Turner
2 – Vincent Smith
4 – Je’Ron Stokes (I imagine this will be changed, as it would prevent Stokes and Brandon Minor from being on the field at the same time.  Also, Brandon Smith is listed as being #4 as well, and I doubt 3 people would have the same number.) [ed. The roster is now fixed, with Stokes listed as wearing #6]
5 – Tate Forcier
5 – Vladimir Emilien
7 – Brandin Hawthorne
13 – Adrian Witty
14 – Teric Jones
15 – Thomas Gordon
16 – Denard Robinson
26 – Isaiah Bell
27 – Mike Jones
28 – Fitzgerald Toussaint
29 – Jeremy Gallon
34 – Brendan Gibbons
73 – William Campbell
75 – Michael Schofield
76 – Quinton Washington
77 – Taylor Lewan
84 – Cameron Gordon
88 – Craig Roh
90 – Anthony LaLota

Other noteworthy numbers:

4 – Brandon Smith (as alluded to above, he switched from #28)
19 – Kelvin Grady

Now your NCAA 10 gaming experience can be even more realistic, if you ignore the fact half these guys aren’t even in the game (someday, somebody will explain to me why EA Sports insists on a 70-man roster limit with a reason beyond laziness). Interesting to see Taylor Lewan go with Jake Long’s old number and J.T. Turner take Charles Woodson’s. These guys certainly aren’t shying away from the comparisons. As for Denard Robinson taking John Navarre’s 16, well, I’ve got nothing.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
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It's pretty safe to project Tate Forcier as a future starter.

Now that the entire class of 2009 is reportedly qualified (Justin Turner is supposedly on campus and enrolled, which would imply that he is academically eligible), I want to take a post I did on my old website and update it. Back in 2008, I went through 11 years’ worth of Michigan recruiting classes (1993-2003) to see, in the average class, what percentage of players stayed all four years, started at least 12 games, made an All-Big Ten team, etc. Then I took those numbers and used them to predict player outcomes for the Class of 2008. So, in step one of this post, I’m going to update the original numbers to include the Class of 2004, now that all of those players have played out their eligibility. To do this, I’m using Rivals.com’s recruiting data and Mike DeSimone’s recruiting outcomes page. The results:

Overall, Michigan handed out 242 scholarships from 1993-2004. Of those players:
•    117 (48%) started at least twelve games for Michigan
•    52 (21%) were taken in the NFL Draft
•    10 (4.1%) were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft
•    53 (22%) were selected All-Big Ten first-team at least once
•    19 (7.8%) made an All-American team
•    Charles Woodson (.41%) won a Heisman Trophy

As for how many players stuck it out through their four (or five) years:
•    149 (62%) played out their eligibility, meaning 93 (38%) left the team early
•    8 players (3.3%) left early for the NFL
•    3 of those players (David Terrell, Charles Woodson, and Tim Biakabutuka) were taken in the Top 8 of the Draft
•    Alan Branch went with the first pick in round 2, Adrian Arrington with the 30th pick of the 7th round
•    The other 3 (Alex Ofili, Ernest Shazor, and Shantee Orr) went undrafted
•    2 players (Clayton Richard and Drew Henson) left school early to play pro baseball (.8%)
•    9 players (3.7%) were kicked off the team for grade or disciplinary issues (I realize this is way low, but many of Michigan’s disciplinary casualties simply transferred for undisclosed reasons. Take that number with a huge grain of salt)
•    27 players (11%) transferred (not including disciplinary casualties)
•    16 players (6.6%) were not picked up for their fifth year of eligibility (Ryan “Yards After” Mundy falls in this category, since we weren’t going to bring him back before he transferred to West Virginia)
•    16 players (6.6%) had their careers cut short due to injury

Now, I’ll adjust the above numbers for a 22-man recruiting class, which is the size of Michigan’s Class of 2009 (numbers rounded up or down where appropriate, since we’re hopefully dealing with whole football players):

14 will play out their full eligibility
10.5 (that .5 will be determined later) will start at least 12 games
5 will become All-Big Ten first-team players
2 will become All-Americans
5 will be taken in the NFL Draft

After the jump, I’ll take a look at the 2009 recruiting class and make some projections using the above data: Continue reading Projecting Michigan’s 2009 Recruiting Class

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Michigan Promotes Adam Braithwaite to Safeties/Outside Linebackers Coach
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