In my haste to preview Michigan’s offensive tackles, I skipped over the tight ends — something the Wolverine offense seemed to do a lot as the 2009 season wore on (rimshot!). Will the tight ends be similarly overlooked in 2010? Let’s take a look:
Returning Contributors: Kevin Koger (Jr.), Brandon Moore (RS So.), Martell Webb (Sr.) Incoming Freshmen: None Key Departures: None
Returning Player Stats:
The Projected Starter: Junior Kevin Koger will once again be Michigan’s starting tight end, and he will have to bounce back from a disappointing second half of 2009 if he wants to have the breakout year most people expected out of him as a sophomore. Of Koger’s 16 receptions last season, 12 came in the first six games, and his issues dropping the ball may have had a lot to do with the tight end position getting phased out of the offense late in the year. At his best, Koger is an all-conference talent who can block, catch, and run well for a player of his size (6-4, 255 pounds), and if he plays up to his potential (he was Rivals.com’s No. 4 tight end in the class of 2008) he could be both a big-play threat and a solid safety valve for the Wolverine quarterbacks. To reach that potential, however, Koger must prove he can consistently catch the ball — if he can do that, he should be a valuable weapon for the 2010 offense.
The Competition: Senior Martell Webb — a former standout prep basketball player — will likely be Koger’s primary backup. Webb is a good athlete who has also had some issues holding onto the ball, but he is a solid second option at tight end and could see his role expand in his final season. At 6-4, 257 pounds, Webb is another big target, and the former four-star recruit has all the skills necessary to be a reliable backup and red-zone threat.
Redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore (four-star, No. 8 tight end to Rivals.com) came to Ann Arbor with nearly as much recruiting hype as Koger, but so far in his career he has been buried behind his 2007 classmate and Webb on the depth chart. Moore was mostly used as a split-out receiver in high school, so the adjustment to playing on the line may have played a part in his lack of playing time, but Moore will have to seriously step up his game if he wants to see much playing time this year. At 6-5, 250 pounds, Moore could be a great receiving threat, but so far his potential hasn’t translated to significant reps — he’ll likely reprise his role as the third tight end until 2011, when Webb’s eligibility will be up.
Outlook: The role of the tight end in Michigan’s offense may be determined by the play of Michigan’s outside and slot receivers early in the season — if the team is able to put up points while running four- and five-receiver sets, Koger and his backups might be relegated to spot duty, much like they were in the latter half of 2009. If Koger’s hands have improved, however, he could be too talented to keep off the field, and Rich Rodriguez’s offense has several plays designed to take advantage of Koger’s versatility (see last year’s Notre Dame game for proof). Expect the tight ends’ production to fall somewhere between last year’s numbers and last year’s expectations as Michigan spreads the ball around to a bevy of talented receivers.
Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low” and “Guarded” threat categories, and Today, we move on to the positions that fall under the “Elevated” category:
Quarterback: One should expect the quarterback play to improve for Michigan regardless of who wins the starting job, if for no other reason than that the Wolverines won’t be rotating two true freshmen at the position in 2010. In the best case scenario, Michigan will have two much-improved options at the most important position on the field, two players who can complement each others skill sets and allow the team to show multiple looks and keep the defense guessing. That, or Tate Forcier becomes the next Drew Brees or Denard Robinson becomes Pat White with a better arm. But that’s dreaming. In the worst case, Forcier plays like he did over the latter half of his freshman season, Robinson still proves ineffective at reading defenses and making accurate throws, and Devin Gardner is forced into duty instead of spending a redshirt year learning the offense.
Right now, it’s anybody’s guess as to what end of the spectrum the quarterback play will be at come fall — I personally think Robinson will have a solid season as the starter, and provide a big-play threat on the ground while still posing enough of a threat to throw that teams can’t just stack eight men in the box. That’s just conjecture, however, and the uncertainty surrounding this position puts it squarely in the “Elevated” category.
Running Back: There are two ways to look at the running back position as we exit the spring season. On the one hand, fans should be worried that the running game looked generally unimpressive in the spring, and no back stepped up and took control of the job in the absence of the injured Vincent Smith. On the other hand, Michigan gets Smith back in the fall, and there are four talented runners also competing for major playing time in Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins — out of those five guys, Michigan should be able to find at least one effective running back, right?
At this point, I’d say Smith is your likely opening-day starter, given his performance from last season and the lack of an outstanding spring from the other backs. There will be lots of other options, however. Shaw is the most experienced back in the group, and if he can stay healthy, he could be the type of home-run threat Carlos Brown was on his good (read: healthy) days at Michigan. Cox may be the best all-around athlete of the backs, and if he can get the mental part of the game down, his physical tools will make it hard to keep him off the field. Toussaint came in as a freshman last fall with a lot of hype after putting up ridiculous numbers in high school — at his best, he can be a powerful runner with breakaway speed. Finally, Hopkins will almost certainly see the field as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist, and if he can prove he can grind out four or five yards from anywhere on the field, that role could grow larger.
The tailback position is much like quarterback right now for Rich Rodriguez: he has options, and talented ones, but the team needs one guy (or two) to step up and prove he can be a game-changer. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until the fall to see if we have one.
Tight End: Early on last season, it looked like this position would be a very productive one. Then, Kevin Koger developed a case of the dropsies, as did backup Martell Webb, and the tight ends were marginalized in the offense. Both players return, as does former four-star recruit Brandon Moore, but the Wolverines have no other scholarship tight ends on the roster — not exactly a sign that the position will be deployed heavily in Rich Rodriguez’s offense, especially with the mass quantities of slot receivers fighting for playing time.
There is a lot of talent here, however, and if Koger gets a fair shot at ample playing time he could be a big factor in the passing game. Yes, he had a few bad drops last year, but he is also capable of doing things like this:
Early last season, Michigan utilized Koger on a lot of drag routes on zone read fakes, and those proved very effective when teams keyed on the run. I was a bit surprised to see Rodriguez and Co. move away from that strategy as the season went on, and would like to see the tight ends used more — I think Koger has the talent to be a real impact player and a reliable safety valve for whoever starts at quarterback. Two things must happen for that to come to fruition, however: Koger has to catch the easy passes, and the team has to commit to utilizing the tight ends. If those two things happen, this position could be a real strength for the Wolverines.
Punter: If you watched the special teams portion of the spring game, you witnessed one of the most horrific punting exhibitions in collegiate football history (OK, that may be slight hyperbole, but it was bad). Michigan will certainly miss the departed Zoltan Mesko, Space Emperor of Space, and clearly nobody on the spring roster is ready to hit the field in the fall — in fact, if Michigan had to choose a punter from the guys on campus now, Tate Forcier would likely be playing double-duty.
The good news is this: Rich Rodriguez secured a commitment from Will Hagerup (left), Rivals.com’s #3 kicker in the country, who punted in the Army All-American Bowl. There is little doubt that Hagerup will be the starting punter from the moment he arrives in Ann Arbor — the special teams performance at the spring game dictates that much. The question will be if Hagerup is ready to perform at the collegiate level. Fortunately, there isn’t any difference between punting a football in a high school game and punting in the Super Bowl — the changes are in the personnel around you, and how dangerous the guy is fielding the punt. Unless Hagerup forgot how to punt a football, he should be fine stepping in and becoming a serviceable freshman punter with good potential. If he gets hurt, however, all bets are off. Take care of that leg, Will — no Michigan fan wants to see Forcier left exposed as the opposition brings heavy heat to block a punt, but from what we have seen of the guys on the roster, he is the only viable option if Hagerup were to go down.
With spring practice kicking off this week, I went over the players with the most to gain from a good spring performance yesterday. Today, I take a look at the flip side of that coin: the players who, for one reason or another, will be fighting to hold on their role with this team. Here are the players who are at risk of seeing a diminished role if they don’t come through with a big spring performance:
Obi Ezeh, RS Sr. LB: Ezeh is listed first for a reason — no other established starter has come under as much fire as Ezeh because of a lack of performance, and the criticism that has followed Ezeh for the past couple years hasn’t been entirely undeserved. Simply put, this team expected a lot more from Ezeh in 2009, when he was entering his third year starting in the middle, and his disappointing season has opened the door for somebody like J.B. Fitzgerald to ascend to a starting role. By all accounts, Ezeh is a great person and tremendous leader on and off the field, but he will have to bring his on-field performance up to a higher standard if he doesn’t want to be unseated by the fall.
Kelvin Grady, RS Jr. Slot: Ironically enough, it was a big-time spring performance that earned Grady a big role to start out the 2009 season, but issues with route-running, knowledge of the offense, and the emergence of Roy Roundtree combined to decrease Grady’s playing time by the end of the season. Now Grady is fighting for playing time with a host of talented youngsters — including Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, and incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and D.J. Williamson — while Roundtree and Martavious Odoms eat up the lion’s share of the playing time in the slot. If Grady doesn’t make big strides with his football IQ (which is very possible — we forget he was playing basketball a little over a year ago), he could be caught in a logjam and surpassed by younger players.
Kevin Koger, Jr. TE: Koger was another player who saw his role diminish as the 2009 season progressed, and now he may be fighting for not only his survival in the starting lineup, but the survival of the tight end position under Rich Rodriguez. Unlike the other players listed here, Koger isn’t facing a ton of competition from his own position group — Martell Webb and Brandon Moore are the only other tight ends on the roster, and neither has shown enough to make me think they’ll unseat Koger — but instead he has to convince the coaches that it’s worth keeping a tight end on the field instead of moving to more four- and five-receiver sets. For Koger, the issue is simple: catch the ball, and it will be hard to keep such a big (6-4, 251 lbs.), skilled talent off the field. If he can’t cure his issues with dropping the ball, however, we could see Roundtree and Odoms both lining up as starters in the fall.
Michael Shaw, Jr. RB: It doesn’t seem like that long ago that Shaw was the “next big thing” at running back, but now he finds himself entering his junior season surrounded by questions about his durability and without much of a track record to show that he’s a better option than the plethora of younger backs on the roster. Shaw has to show that he can stay healthy this spring, or the coaching staff may never be willing to trust him as a back who can handle more than 10-15 touches a game. With Vincent Smith slated to return healthy in the fall, Michael Cox and Fitzgerald Toussaint both looking to grab starter’s touches, and two true freshmen already enrolled (Austin White and Stephen Hopkins), Shaw will have to prove that he can be the explosive, home-run threat that everyone expected him to be when he came to Ann Arbor as a freshman. Otherwise, he could find himself fighting an uphill battle against a host of younger players.
Darryl Stonum, Jr. WR: Michigan has received very disappointing production from its outside receivers under Rich Rodriguez, and part of the blame could certainly fall on Stonum, who hasn’t lived up to his blue-chip billing in his first two seasons despite getting ample opportunity to show off his talent. Even though Stonum will get the first crack to retain his starting spot, he will have to fend off competition from sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and early enrollees Ricardo Miller, Jeremy Jackson, and Jerald Robinson in the spring and fall. It’s time for Stonum to start producing like a top-100 high school prospect, and if he can’t do that, Michigan has several players waiting in the wings to prove that they can.
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the (already incredible) opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.
With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.
I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:
Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).
Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.
[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]
At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.
Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.
Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.
Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen. I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.
Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.
There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).
Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.
Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.
Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.
Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.
Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.
Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.
2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.
I’m a numbers guy, plain and simple. I devour stuff like Smart Football, Football Outsiders, 82games.com, and FanGraphs. The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract is my go-to bathroom reading material. I’m waiting for a fantasy baseball league where VORP and WARP take precedence over RBI and ERA.
However, numbers can be deceiving. Take a look at just how much the Delaware State game affected Michigan’s national statistical rankings:
I mean, wow. Michigan gained at least seven spots in each major national statistical category. The Wolverines’ average yards of total offense jumped by over 50, while their average total yards allowed dropped by nearly 25. They even managed (by proxy?) to move up one spot in the net punting ranks despite not punting once against the Hornets. Space Emperor, indeed.
The statistical boon of facing a 1-3 FCS did not stop with the team totals. Individuals, as well, felt the joy of insane statistical outliers:
Denard Robinson’s season (and, therefore, career) passer efficiency rating skyrocketed from a paltry 55.39 (for context, the 100th best qualifying passer in the country, Clemson’s Kyle Parker, has a rating of 106.55) to a very acceptable 131.83 (which would qualify for 54th in the country, just above Northwestern’s Mike Kafka). David Cone’s season rating went from 0.00 to 150.72.
Vincent Smith more than quintupled his career rushing yards, going from 35 to 201. Mike Cox merely multiplied his total around 3.6 times, from 31 to 113. Both players’ career touchdown totals, of course, increased by an infinite amount.
Ricky Reyes, JeRon Stokes, Brandon Moore, Terrence Robinson, and Cox all recorded their first career reception on Saturday. The 29-yard pass from Cone to Reyes comprises 26.9% of the duo’s combined career yardage at Michigan.
A guy named Scott Schrimscher kicked an extra point for Michigan, the first point of his career, and also the first ever point in the NCAA by a man with the last name ‘Schrimscher’.
I could go on, but by now I think you get the point. Saturday’s game was fun for the sole reason that a lot of players saw the field who had never played significant time at Michigan before, and a few of the young guys got to put up crazy numbers. Somehow, those numbers count towards NCAA totals despite coming against a team that forfeited a conference game to play here, and Michigan is now a much better team, statistically speaking, than they were just one week ago.
The thing that bugs me about this whole thing is that many of the teams above Michigan in these categories have probably played similar creampuffs, making it really hard to figure out just who is the best, say, rushing team in the country. I do know this: Michigan is probably much closer to the 23rd best running team in the nation than the eighth.
What’s my point here? I’m not sure, exactly. However, I do know that I never want to see Michigan play a team like that again (and yes, I’m well aware that UMass is on the 2010 schedule). Hopefully Bill Martin and Co. can find a way to line the pockets of the athletic department without bringing in more sacrificial FCS lambs.
Alex on 
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