Roy Roundtree looks like he will be an integral part of the 2010 offense.

There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

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Win one for this guy, please. (No, not Tim Hiller, the other guy.)

It’s Ohio State week, when the records are thrown out the window and two storied rivals battle for pride and a year’s worth of supremacy. In that vein, I’m not going to look back at last week’s keys. Let’s get right to the good stuff:

1. Get on the board early — Michigan can’t afford to start this game in a hole. Playing from behind changes the way this offense runs (or doesn’t run) and could give Ohio State the momentum they need to blow the game wide open. I think Rich Rodriguez had the right idea last week when he elected to receive the opening kickoff. If Michigan can score first and establish that they’re in the game, it takes some of the pressure off of the defense and allows the offense to play how they want to. Also, an early score should get both the team and the fans into the game, which certainly can’t hurt.
2. Contain Terrelle Pryor — Duh, but it bears mentioning. Pryor is Ohio State’s biggest weapon on offense, and I’m most worried about him when he is able to start making plays with his feet. The defensive ends have got to maintain lane discipline, and the linebackers (and boy, does this part worry me) have to make sure to keep Pryor inside of them. If Michigan can force Pryor to become a pocket passer, much like USC did earlier this season, than I like the Wolverines’ odds of getting a few key stops.
3. Get Carlos Brown and Vincent Smith the ball in space — Brown showed an ability to take a screen pass all the way against Indiana, and Smith really impressed me last week against Wisconsin. With Brandon Minor doubtful for the game, those two will play a huge role in the offense. We know Brown isn’t much of a runner inside the tackles, and I don’t think Michigan is ready to rely on Smith as an every-down back, but both are capable of making big plays when they can get outside. I’d like to see a few screen or misdirections that take advantage of their skills.
4. Knock Justin Boren around — Self-explanatory.
5. Leave it all out there — A victory, obviously, would be incredible, but I’d love to see this game competitive for 60 minutes. The seniors — especially Brandon Graham — deserve it. Nothing is more depressing than a Senior Day blowout to your biggest rival. I’m sure the team will come out fired up, but they need to maintain that level of intensity for the whole game. Don’t leave any doubt that the team is 100% behind this coaching staff.

This is a unique opportunity for Michigan — nobody expects them to win, a loss only serves to end a disappointing season, but a victory means far, far more than just a 6-6 record and a bowl bid. I think the coaches and players all understand this, and we’ll see a team that’s motivated and hungry on Saturday. Will it be enough? Probably not against a team as good as the Buckeyes. Will it be closer than people believe? I think so. Ohio State 34, Michigan 27.

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Jonas Mouton is capable of making plays -- that is, when he's in position to make them.

It’s time for this week’s edition of Five Things… first, a look back at last week’s keys:

1. No more Turnover Tate — Two more fumbles for Tate Forcier, with one going over to Purdue. His ball-security issues are clearly something that will have to be addressed in the offseason — for all his ability to create plays scrambling, his fumbling problems negate a lot of the positives he brings to the team.
2. Feed Brandon Minor — Minor was a force, carrying the ball 19 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, now he’s banged up again, so we’ll see if he can match that workload against Wisconsin. Cross your fingers, Wolverines.
3. Don’t break — 38 points 494 yards of offense allowed on 7.3 yards per play. Um, that’s broken, defense.
4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — In a way, we did — like much of this season, Elliott produced big numbers but mitigated some of his production with two interceptions. However, when you give up 367 yards and two touchdowns passing and can’t get a stop when holding on to a lead, you don’t get a pass. Sorry.
5. Play with an edge — I will give the team this one. They played damn hard. The effort was there, but the execution fell short.

Well, we tried, and Brandon Minor had the kind of game that makes you wonder how we would’ve done if he was healthy all year. Before I pull out the remaining hair on my head, let’s move on to Wisconsin:

1. Convert in the red zone — Michigan is pathetic 107th in the country in red zone offense, scoring just 71% of the time they’re inside the 20. Wisconsin, on the other hand, scores on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The Wolverine defense is going to allow Wisconsin some red zone chances, and in all likelihood, they will convert. Michigan has shown they can move the ball on anybody on offense, but they will have to match the Badgers’ red zone scores if they want to keep up. That means no back-breaking turnovers, Tate. Yes, I’m basically recycling the same game keys here, but the same issues keep coming up.
2. Feed Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown — See? I told you the same issues keep coming up. In this case, I think Michigan will have to establish, and keep establishing, the run game if they want to win this one. Wisconsin will be doing their best to wear down the defense by pounding them with John Clay on the interior — I’m fully expecting to see some painfully long marches down the field by the Badgers. If healthy, Minor is Michigan’s best counter to this — he’s the one running back who has shown an ability to consistently produce between the tackles. If Minor is out or limited, Carlos Brown will have to do his best Minor impression, and hopefully will be fed enough to break a big run or two. Either way, the offense will be relying on their senior backs to match Wisconsin’s smashmouth style.
3. Take advantage of Wisconsin’s special teams — The Badgers are 66th in the country in net punting (35.51 yards/punt) and 116th in kick return defense (25.59 yards/return). Junior Hemingway, when he’s not putting the ball on the ground, showed the ability to break a big punt return against Purdue. Darryl Stonum has established himself to the point where he seems liable to break a kick return on every touch. Field position will be at a premium against Wisconsin, and between the returns and Zoltan Mesko’s ability to pin the opponent deep, I think Michigan has a golden opportunity to take hold of the field position battle.
4. Linebackers, stay disciplined — Michigan has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup, each change triggered by a back-breaking mistake (just look at MGoBlog’s defensive UFR if you doubt me on this). I can somewhat understand the limitations of Obi Ezeh (three-star running back coming out of high school) and Kevin Leach (walk-on), but the fact that Jonas Mouton continually makes horrendous mental errors is a lot less acceptable. I don’t want to attempt to count the number of times he’s allowed a quarterback or running back to get outside of him — when that’s his only responsibility — but that has to end. Keep John Clay inside, and feed him into the line and middle backer (whoever it is). Please.
5. Play desperate — Let’s be honest: If Michigan wants to make a bowl game, this is the time to step up and get a victory. Wisconsin is a hell of a lot more beatable than Ohio State, regardless of what you think of Terrelle Pryor’s development (or lack of). The coaching staff, and players, can’t hold anything back on this one. Even though this shouldn’t be (and isn’t) the case, I want to see Rich Rodriguez coaching this game like his job depends on it. Bust out trick plays, throw in a new wrinkle on offense we haven’t seen, play Brandon Graham at fullback — whatever it takes, do it.

No prediction this week: Michigan keeps letting me down every time I expect a bounce-back performance, and I’m sick of predicting losses. Right now, it’s about watching for progress, especially on defense. I wonder if “Let’s Go Progress” will catch on as a chant… No? OK, I’ll shut up now. Go Blue.

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Another game, another terrible defensive effort.

Maybe I’ve just got “big picture” things on the mind after spending the weekend at a cousin’s wedding, but I spent a lot of Sunday thinking about what this loss actually meant to the Michigan football program.

You know what? Not a lot, in my opinion.

Ultimately, the game game down to a missed extra point and field goal by a kicker who won’t even be around next season. The offense played as well as you could hope for with a true freshman at the helm, posting 36 points and 427 yards, converting 8 of 14 third downs, turning the ball over only once, and converting every red zone opportunity. The defense played really poorly, just like they’ve played in every Big Ten contest, giving up 494 yards and 28 second-half points to Purdue.

Did we really learn anything new about this team? No.

Of course, I would have loved to see us pull this game out, guarantee a bowl bid, and take a little bit of heat off of Rich Rodriguez. However, do you truly think that the team would come under any less fire if they had beaten Purdue in a close game, then dropped the Wisconsin and Ohio State games and ended up in Detroit for the Motor City Bowl? I highly doubt it.

Unlike the Illinois game, this loss didn’t bring the team’s effort into question. Anybody who thought they were quitting on Rodriguez hopefully thought otherwise after seeing Carlos Brown’s desperation pitch to David Moosman [EDIT: Sorry, it was Huyge. Thanks to commenter Tapin for the correction] on fourth down. Not only was Brown going to do anything to get that first down, but Huyge hustled just to be in position to field the pitch, and then rumbled towards the goal line like a man possessed before getting hauled down. Yes, it was a forward lateral (barely), but you can’t watch that play and then tell me Michigan didn’t want this one just as bad as Purdue did.

The season will come down to this: two chances at a season-altering upset, including one opportunity to put a streak (and many demons) to rest against the school’s biggest rival. Taking down Purdue wasn’t going to make me think any differently about our outlook for 2010. Beat Wisconsin or (especially) Ohio State, and things change. Lose both, and, in the words of Denny Green, we are who we thought we were: a team with a debilitating weakness on one side of the ball and inexperience on both that simply wasn’t ready for a bowl season. I’ve come to terms with both possibilities. I think it’s time for Michigan fans to do the same.

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Jordan Kovacs, and whoever else plays safety, needs to keep the ball in front of them.

I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:

1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
2. Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
3. Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
5. Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.

Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:

1. Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
3. Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
4. Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
5. Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.

It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.

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Darryl Stonum could play a big role in the return game this week.

Last week’s game was such a pasting it isn’t really worth looking at, so let’s dive right into the keys to the Penn State game:

1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Penn State ranks 16th in the country in sacks allowed (just one per game), so this won’t be the easiest of tasks. However, those of you who watched the Nittany Lions take on Iowa know how important it is to rattle Darryl Clark. While the Hawkeyes only sacked Clark twice, they were able to get in his face and force a lot of bad throws, and I believe two of Clark’s three picks came on passes that were tipped at the line. When he has time to pass, Clark can pick apart a defense, but when he feels pressure, he loses some composure and can become turnover-prone. Michigan will need that edge against this stout Penn State defense.
2. Make a big play in the return game — The Nittany Lions have had a terrible year when it comes to special teams — they’re 86th in net punting yards (despite having a punter who leads the conference in average yards per punt) and 87th in average yards allowed per kick return. I don’t expect much out of Michigan’s punt return game, as Greg Mathews hasn’t shown much ability to do anything besides catch the ball (and he failed to do that against Iowa, and was subsequently benched for Junior Hemingway). However, Darryl Stonum has looked good returning kickoffs, and his return TD against Notre Dame changed the course of that game. If Stonum can give Michigan good field position, like he did against Indiana, or simply break one off for a score, it could be the difference.
3. Punch it in — Against a defense as good as Penn State’s, you can’t afford to miss opportunities. The Nittany Lions are tied for first in the nation in red zone defense, allowing scores just 61% of the time. When Michigan gets into the red zone, they have to get points out of it, and the difference in the game could be which team can turn their red zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals. With Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown at least healthy enough to play, there’s really no excuse for Michigan to not be able to convert when they drive deep into Lion territory.
4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State has one of the best front sevens in the country, and should be even stronger with the return of Sean Lee this week. Their linebackers play aggressive, cover the field from sideline to sideline, and get to the quarterback. Michigan will have to find a way to slow down the pass rush, and I don’t think this simply comes down to the offensive line blocking well. With how aggressive their linebackers play, Penn State could be susceptible to the play-action pass or a well-timed screen. I fully expect Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee to utilize both in an effort to make the linebackers hesitant. If Michigan can keep the Lions away from Tate Forcier, they should have an opportunity to attack the weakest part of the Penn State defense — their secondary.
5. Get off the field — Michigan just could not get off the field on defense against Iowa, allowing them to convert several third-and-longs. Penn State ranks third in the country in third down conversions, getting the first at a 57% clip. Their rate can’t be that high if Michigan wants to have a chance in this one, and it will take an effort from the whole defense to slow down Clark and Co. Avoid those back-breaking third-and-long conversions, and the Wolverines have a shot at this one.

After watching Penn State play, I get the feeling that they’re quite vulnerable to an upset. However, the flaws on Michigan’s defense, in conjunction with the strength of Penn State’s, make it very tough for me to think Michigan will take this one. I think it’ll be a close game that comes down to a couple possessions late, but I think the Lions pull away at the end: 31-21 Penn State, in a game even closer than the score would indicate.

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Jailbreak!

I just finished watching a large chunk of the Penn State-Minnesota game from last week (the torrent started coverage with around four minutes left in the first quarter, with PSU up 6-0, thanks to the Texas-Oklahoma game running long, and I stopped watching once PSU put the game out of reach), and have some observations from the tape:

• This should come as a bit of a surprise, considering Penn State racked up 177 yards on 43 carries against Minnesota, but I actually came away relatively unimpressed with their run game. There were generally two outcomes when they handed the ball off: There was the good, when Royster would find a seam, break the first tackle (Minnesota tackled horribly in the game) and get to the next level before getting taken down 8-20 yards downfield. Then there was the bad, when the offensive line allowed far too much penetration and Royster (or whoever was getting the carry) go nowhere. 21 of Penn State’s 43 carries went for three yards for less, and many of those looked like the play pictured above. This would make sense against a defense like, say, Penn State’s, but Minnesota is 87th in the country in rush defense. Michigan certainly isn’t great at rush D, but they do have several quick guys who can get into the backfield, and that could give Penn State a lot of trouble on Saturday. Further breakdown of the run play pictured above after the jump.
• Darryl Clark is very tough to figure out. On some plays, his mechanics are perfect, and he looks like an NFL quarterback that can fit a pass pretty much anywhere he wants to. On other plays, it appears that his mechanics completely fall apart, and he throws some very ugly balls. He had one pass, in particular, where he stepped up in the pocket, failed to set his feet, and completely overthrew a wide open receiver that had three steps on the defense and would have scored an easy touchdown. One thing I will say about Clark: he is a big, big dude, and when he runs it takes a solid tackle (and often, a solid tackle by several players) to take him down.
• Look out for Andrew Quarless, Penn State’s tight end. He caught a couple crossing routes when Minnesota brought heat, and Clark tended to look his way when facing pressure. Michigan’s linebackers better be aware of where he is on the field, especially when a blitz is called. He already has 21 catches for 224 yards this season and showed some nice hands against the Gophers.
• I’m not sure how much this was a function of Minnesota’s defense, but Penn State’s line performed far better in the passing game than the run game. They consistently gave Clark a nice pocket to throw from and a long time to pick apart the defense, and the Lions’ wide receivers were able to take advantage by finding holes in the Gopher defense. Michigan has had a very tough time getting to the quarterback this year, and that may continue this weekend.
• I don’t have a whole lot on the Penn State defense, since Minnesota runs a completely different offense from Michigan and generally appeared inept last week. One thing I did notice, however, was the aggressiveness of their linebackers — they fly to the ball and hit hard, especially Navorro Bowman. The Gophers did use this to their advantage on one play, setting up a screen that would have gone for big yardage, but Adam Weber threw a terrible pass that the running back couldn’t haul in. Look for Michigan to try to do something similar — we could see a lot of Carlos Brown leaking out of the backfield, a la the Indiana game.

Take all of this with a big grain of salt — it’s a pretty small amount of data from a game against Minnesota. However, keep an eye out for this stuff come Saturday — I expected to watch this game and see Penn State completely dominate, and while their defense delivered, I didn’t get the same impression from their offense. I think this team is beatable, although Michigan will have to play a great game to overcome that D.

Now for that run breakdown: Continue reading Watching Tape: Penn State-Minnesota

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Penn State's issues on special teams may have cost them the game against Iowa.

This week I’m debuting a new feature here at The Wolverine Blog: The Numbers Game, a weekly comparison between Michigan’s national statistical ratings and their upcoming opponents’. This idea has been lifted directly from Black Shoe Diaries’ “By The Numbers” feature, so I will not pretend that this is an original thought whatsoever. However, I wanted to add some depth to my game previews, and imitation being the best form of flattery, etc., here we are. Usually I’ll post this up on the Wednesday before the game, but since there is not a lot to analyze about Michigan’s victory over Delaware State, I’m putting this up a day early. Without further ado, here are the numbers:

CATEGORY	MICHIGAN (Nat'l Rank)	PENN STATE (Nat'l Rank)	ADVANTAGE
Rush Offense (YPG)	235.00 (8)	187.00 (25)
Pass Offense (YPG)	191.57 (86)	245.71 (37)
Pass Efficiency	133.67 (54)	141.27 (32)
Total Offense (YPG)	426.57 (25)	432.71 (19)	Push
Scoring Offense (PPG)	37.29 (9)	29.57 (42)
Rush Defense (YPG)	130.43 (58)	75.43 (6)
Pass Defense (YPG)	232.86 (80)	163.43 (14)
Pass Efficiency Defense	115.72 (38)	96.52 (12)
Total Defense (YPG)	363.29 (64)	238.86 (5)
Scoring Defense (PPG)	21.86 (46)	8.71 (2)
Net Punting Yards	41.88 (2)	34.18 (86)
Punt Return Yards	8.00 (71)	5.27 (95)
Kick Return Yards	23.84 (37)	15.43 (119)
Kick Return Defense	22.94 (87)	22.66 (84)	Push
Turnover Margin	-0.43 (T-88)	-0.14 (T-67)
Penalty Yards/Game	48.86 (36)	36.00 (5)
Sacks	1.43 (86)	3.00 (T-11)
Sacks Allowed	1.57 (49)	1.00 (16)
Red Zone Offense %	79% (T-78)	82% (T-67)
Red Zone Defense %	79% (T-47)	62% (T-1)
3rd Down Conv. %	42.22% (44)	56.70% (3)
3rd Down Conv. % Defense	34.51% (34)	32.00% (21)

Legend:

Difference between 0-10 in national rank: Push
Difference between 11-25 in national rank:
Difference between 26-50 in national rank:
Difference between 50-100 in national rank:
Difference greater than 100 in national rank: 

The Upshot:

Rarely do you see numbers that provide such a clear-cut picture of a game. On offense, Michigan has a slight edge in the run game (remember, Michigan’s rush yards were much closer to Penn State’s before the DSU track meet) while Penn State is a slightly better passing team. Penn State’s defense is much, much better than the Wolverines’, and Michigan’s special teams have a big advantage.

The key to the game is going to be if Michigan can find a way to run against the stout Nittany Lions’ defense. Iowa had some success running in their 21-10 victory over PSU, amassing 163 yards on 4.4 yards per carry. That same Iowa team managed only 83 yards on 34 carries against the much-less-stout Michigan defense, so it certainly is within the realm of possibility for a healthy Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown to find some yards on Saturday.

The other factor that could lead to a Wolverine upset is the special teams. The Penn State/Iowa game turned when Iowa returned a blocked punt 53 yards for a touchdown, and their terrible net punting average (34.18) means Michigan would gain almost eight yards of field position just by trading punts with the Lions. Couple that with a poor PSU kickoff coverage unit, and the Wolverines may see a short field several times to begin drives. Against a defense as strong a Penn State’s, that could be huge.

Overall, however, it’s pretty tough to look at those numbers and expect Michigan to win. It will take a big effort from the defense and an even bigger one from the offense (and maybe a break or two from special teams and turnovers) for the Wolverines to prevail. The team is certainly capable, but the numbers are stacked against them.

I’ll have much more in the upcoming days on Penn State, including breakdowns of their games against Minnesota and Iowa and a chat with PSU blog Nittany White Out, so make sure to check back soon.

Expect to see a lot of Vincent Smith against DSU.

My internet has decided to only work half the time, and at a snail’s pace when it does, so this is going to be a very quick “Five Things…”

1. Don’t get injured — If Tate plays more than a quarter, I’ll be a little concerned. Hopefully he’s smart enough to not scramble too much or take any big hits. I’m really hoping we can get the starters out by the second half and just put it in cruise control from there.
2. Lots of carries for Shaw and Smith — Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown may be the present, but they are also seniors. Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith have both shown flashes of tremendous talent at times (Shaw in actual games, Smith in spring practice, mostly). I’d love to see both of them get some work in with the starters and let Minor and Brown fully heal for Penn State.
3. Denard Robinson complete some downfield passes — Shoelace’s confidence can’t be riding very high after that pick against Iowa. If the coaches let him loose and allow him to sling the ball downfield, hopefully he’ll respond with a solid game. If he can’t show passing ability against Delaware State, you can pretty much write him off as a passing threat for the rest of this season.
4. No blown assignments by the defense — We shouldn’t have to worry about DSU moving the ball against the defense that much. However, much of the issues with the defense have not been schematic, but simply players missing assignments or getting out of position. This should be a game where the team can focus fully on fixing those kind of mistakes.
5. Don’t get injured — Seriously.

Prediction: 48-10 Michigan. If this game is much closer, I may start breaking things.

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Odds are, Ricky Stanzi will throw a pick. Michigan has to capitalize.

It’s Thursday, so again it’s time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week (unfortunately):

1. Continue the success of the return game — Stonum returned three kicks for 60 yards, a far cry from the 218 return yards (albeit on seven returns) he had against Indiana. He didn’t really come close to breaking one, and Michigan could really have used the field position they enjoyed against the Hoosiers. Oh well.
2. Limit the freshmen mistakes — Up until his last pass of the game, Forcier managed to pull this one off despite teetering on the edge of disaster several times in the late stages of the game. However, you can’t really pin this on on Tate: the guy was doing everything he possibly could to will the offense down the field. Even with the pick in overtime, Tate did a tremendous job of not making a disastrous play until it reached a point where he finally tried to do too much.
3. Get to the quarterback — The defense, outside of the mammoth 17-play drive in the first quarter, played a very solid game. The D recorded two sacks and had several other hurries (Brandon Graham, especially, had a MONSTER game). This is one area that was tough to criticize last weekend.
4. Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — Michigan did have two 40+ yard completions, one to Koger and the late catch-and-run by Stonum. However, there really still isn’t a guy that Michigan can just send on a fly route and put the ball up there. Where art thou, Junior Hemingway?
5. Stay tough in the red zone — The Wolverines alternating between bending and breaking: the first State TD was a break, to say the least, and not in a good way, and the 15-yard touchdown run by Winston met little to no resistance. However, Michigan also held State to two short field goals, including one on the drive that ensued directly after the rollout punt FAIL. And Brandon Graham did this:

Which was awesome. Half-credit, maybe?

All in all, this could go anywhere from a 1/5 to a 4/5, depending on how you look at it. Let’s just say 2.5/5 and move on to the keys for Iowa before the vein in my forehead explodes.

1. Capitalize on scoring chances — When looked at from a pure points allowed perspective, Iowa’s defense is daunting, to say the least. They’ve given up a mere 13.4 points per game, good for 10th in the country (and only third in the conference, which is ridiculous). However, Iowa drops down to 32nd in the country in total yards allowed (302.6 per game) and 50th in the country in rush defense (122.2 yards per game). Now, I’m no Smart Football (seriously, check out that site), but that looks to me like a defense that has gotten a little bit lucky in the turnover department (anyone who watched the Penn State game probably has the same impression) and is due to give up some points. Michigan has to take points when they are available.
2. Force Ricky Stanzi to beat you with his arm — I must say, I have no clue why people are so high on Stanzi. He is currently 70th in the country in passing efficiency, and coincidentally just one spot ahead of Western’s Tim Hiller and three ahead of Indiana’s Ben Chappell. In five games this season, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. I realize that pass defense is the weakness of this Michigan team, but the defense actually did a solid job against State’s previously-productive passing game, and Stanzi is prone to mistakes. Semi-bold prediction: Donovan Warren comes up with a pick. Mark it down.
3. Get Brandon Minor at least 25 touches — It sounds more and more like Carlos Brown will not be available on Saturday (rumor is he suffered a concussion in practice, FWIW), which means lots of Brandon Minor and some Michael Shaw sprinkled in. As noted earlier, Iowa is actually somewhat susceptible to the run. Against a defense as strong as the Hawkeyes’, having some success on the ground would be huge. Minor only had four touches against MSU (for 2 yards), and that cannot happen again if Michigan wants to be in this game.
4. Jonas Mouton, please stop being an idiot — I don’t know what else to say on this one. Mouton, more than any other Wolverine (besides, maybe, whoever is playing corner opposite Warren) has been responsible for big plays by the opponent. He is insanely athletic, but gets himself out of position and gives up the edge far too often. If Mouton can regain his form from the end of last year, and stay in the game mentally, he could be a real force on defense. Michigan needs somebody besides Warren and Graham to step up and make plays; Mouton could (and should) be that guy.
5. Make a statement — A lot of people will be tuning in to this game to see if Michigan is for real. So far, we have beaten three crappy teams and a Notre Dame squad that looks to be borderline top-25 and lost to a crappy Michigan State team. Heading into the meat of the Big Ten schedule, this team still doesn’t really have an identity. Some how, some way, forge an identity against Iowa, and the momentum from a night win against a top-15 team could carry this team through the season.

I’m really torn on this game. On one hand, I think Michigan is a far better team than we showed last week, and Iowa has really played down to their competition in every game and looks ripe for an upset. On the other hand, this is a night game (and homecoming, and a “blackout” game) in Iowa, and we have a very young team that has yet to really prove themselves. I think this will be close, but home field gives the edge to the Hawkeyes … Iowa 27, Michigan 18.

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