If today’s Countdown to Kickoff video doesn’t get you excited for tomorrow, you may want to check your pulse:

3:30 pm tomorrow simply can’t come soon enough.

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It’s summer, the time when bloggers rack their brains for something — anything — to write about and college football fans count down the seconds until foot meets pigskin. So, welcome to my latest gimmick: The Michigan Football YouTube Bracket. I’m looking high and low for the best Michigan football moments ever captured on YouTube — divided into two categories: Game Performances/Game Winners and Spectacular Plays — and for you, the readers, to vote on the moment that stands out above the rest.

The first round is officially over, and the results were remarkably predictable — the top seed won out in every first-round matchup. Here’s a rundown of what has happened so far:

[end_columns]

Let’s hope things get a little more interesting as the tournament whittles down to eight. Here’s the first quarterfinal matchup between the 1-seed and 4-seed in the Game Performances/Game Winners category:

(1) Anthony Carter’s catch vs. Indiana, 1979

Regardless of age, and despite this play happening in the middle of an otherwise-unspectacular 8-4 1979 campaign, every Michigan fan knows this play — and Bob Ufer’s immortal call — like the back of their hand. We all know the play, so I’ll skip getting bogged down in details (the video speaks for itself), but I would like to emphasize one thing: Anthony Carter was such a spectacular, game-breaking receiver that — with just six seconds remaining on the clock and simply needing 20 yards to get into reasonable field goal range — Michigan threw a post route in front of three Indiana defenders, knowing Carter could easily split them en route to the end zone. Any coach calling that play today would have their head served on a platter — instead, Wangler-to-Carter went down in history as one of the greatest moments in Michigan history.

(4) Super Mario is born vs. Penn State, 2005

Say what you will about Mario Manningham, but the guy came up with some huge catches in his Michigan career — he made three appearances on this side of the bracket alone. Despite this play coming in just the seventh game of his freshman season, this may be Super Mario’s most memorable (with the 2005 season ending with Michigan at 7-5, I hesitate to call it the most significant) moment of his career. Buzzer-beating touchdown passes are a rarity in football, and in a back-and-forth tilt with an undefeated Penn State team that would go on to finish 11-1, Chad Henne and Mario Manningham caught lightning in a bottle for this magical play.

Click here for all Michigan Football YouTube Bracket posts, and make sure to keep checking back as the tournament moves on.

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• Michigan Football YouTube Bracket: Spectacular Plays 1 vs. 8
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• Michigan Football YouTube Bracket: Game Performances/Winners 1 vs. 8
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• Michigan Football YouTube Bracket: Game Performances/Winners 3 vs. 6

It’s summer, the time when bloggers rack their brains for something — anything — to write about and college football fans count down the seconds until foot meets pigskin. So, welcome to my latest gimmick: The Michigan Football YouTube Bracket. I’m looking high and low for the best Michigan football moments ever captured on YouTube — divided into two categories: Game Performances/Game Winners and Spectacular Plays — and for you, the readers, to vote on the moment that stands out above the rest.

Today, the 4-seed and the 5-seed in the Game Performances/Game Winners category face off in a battle of game-winning plays, both providing dramatic and memorable moments in otherwise forgettable seasons.

(4) Super Mario is born vs. Penn State, 2005

Say what you will about Mario Manningham, but the guy came up with some huge catches in his Michigan career — this is already his second appearance on this side of the bracket. Despite this play coming in just the seventh game of his freshman season, this may be Super Mario’s most memorable (with the 2005 season ending with Michigan at 7-5, I hesitate to call it the most significant) moment of his career. Buzzer-beating touchdown passes are a rarity in football, and in a back-and-forth tilt with an undefeated Penn State team that would go on to finish 11-1, Chad Henne and Mario Manningham caught lightning in a bottle for this magical play.

(5) Remy Hamilton beats Notre Dame, 1994

This play doubles as one of my earliest memories of Michigan football — somehow, even at the age of seven, I somehow understood just how important it was for Michigan to beat Notre Dame. With both teams entering Notre Dame Stadium ranked in the top six, the game was a classic all the way through. After a Ron Powlus touchdown pass put the Irish up one with under a minute left, Todd Collins led Michigan down the field, leaving the game resting on the foot of Remy Hamilton. Hamilton — whom NBC announcer Tom Hammond had mistakenly called “Ryan” earlier in the game — made sure his (real) name would go down in Michigan lore, as he split the uprights from 42 yards out with just two seconds remaining on the clock.

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• Michigan Football YouTube Bracket: Game Performances/Winners 3 vs. 6

It’s summer, the time when bloggers rack their brains for something — anything — to write about and college football fans count down the seconds until foot meets pigskin. So, welcome to my latest gimmick: The Michigan Football YouTube Bracket. I’m looking high and low for the best Michigan football moments ever captured on YouTube — divided into two categories: Game Performances/Game Winners and Spectacular Plays — and for you, the readers, to vote on the moment that stands out above the rest.

Today, we kick off the Michigan Football YouTube Bracket by looking at the 1-seed vs. 8-seed matchup in the Game Performances/Game Winners category, featuring two of the Wolverines’ greatest big-play wideouts:

(1) Anthony Carter’s catch vs. Indiana, 1979

Regardless of age, and despite this play happening in the middle of an otherwise-unspectacular 8-4 1979 campaign, every Michigan fan knows this play — and Bob Ufer’s immortal call — like the back of their hand. We all know the play, so I’ll skip getting bogged down in details (the video speaks for itself), but I would like to emphasize one thing: Anthony Carter was such a spectacular, game-breaking receiver that — with just six seconds remaining on the clock and simply needing 20 yards to get into reasonable field goal range — Michigan threw a post route in front of three Indiana defenders, knowing Carter could easily split them en route to the end zone. Any coach calling that play today would have their head served on a platter — instead, Wangler-to-Carter went down in history as one of the greatest moments in Michigan history.

(8) Mario Manningham beats Michigan State, 2007

Mario Manningham has had his fair share of dramatic moments, but this catch to complete Michigan’s comeback in the “Little Brother” game holds a special place in my heart — I was standing square in the middle of the MSU student section for this game, and between the constant heckling about Appalachian State and MSU’s early lead, well, hearing the silence of Spartan Stadium after this catch was beyond golden. Had this play occurred closer to the end of the game — instead of Michigan being forced to come up with one last stop on defense to seal it — I’d bet it would’ve ended up higher on this list. As it stands, it still is one of my favorite Michigan moments I’ve had the privilege of witnessing in person.

Vote:

Make sure to check back on Monday, as I will continue with the 4 vs. 5 matchup in the Game Performances/Winners category. Have a good weekend, everyone.

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After a nice, longer-than-expected winter vacation, I’m back to regular posting. I would have some wrap-ups on the hoops games against Indiana and Ohio State, but obligations outside my control made it so I couldn’t actually watch the games. As always, UMHoops and MGoBlog should have you covered for basketball stuff.

With Michigan’s 2009 season wrapped up, and the “aughts” now over, I thought I would steal an idea from Dr. Saturday and have my readers vote on a Team of the Decade. Now, your votes have been tallied, so it’s time for me to reveal the Michigan Team of the Decade. First up is the offense; I’ll post up the defense tomorrow.

For position groups with more than one winner, the players are listed in order of total votes received.

Quarterback:

Chad Henne (2004-2007): The first true freshman to start for Michigan since the legendary Rick Leach, Henne made quick work of the lion’s share of Navarre’s school records. He was named to the freshman All-American team after throwing for 2743 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first collegiate season, leading the team to a conference title and Rose Bowl bid. Although he was criticized as a sophomore after a 3-3 start (it’s not really Henne’s fault that he no longer had Braylon Edwards to throw to), he still put up impressive numbers, throwing for 2526 yards and 23 touchdowns. His finest season came as a junior, when Henne completed 61.9% of his passes, threw for 2508 yards and 22 touchdowns (to only eight interceptions), and posted an efficiency rating of 143.4. Henne struggled with injuries as a senior in 2007, but still finished his career as Michigan’s all-time leader in attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and 150-yard passing games.

Running Back:

Mike Hart (2004-2007): Despite lacking the size or speed of a prototype collegiate running back, and being criticized for putting up incredible high school numbers against inferior competition, Mike Hart earned his way into the starting lineup as a true freshman and never relinquished his spot, breaking record after record along the way. Besides an injury-plagued sophomore campaign, Hart had a magnificent year every season he played for the Wolverines: 1455 yards and nine touchdowns as a freshman, 1562 and 14 as a junior, and 1361 and 14 as a senior. His 5040 career rushing yards surpassed Thomas’ mark as the best in school history, as did his 28 (!) career 100-yard games, which also included 12 150-yard games and five 200-yard games (both school records). His three straight 200-yard performances as a freshman may stand as his most impressive achievement, but it was his running style — a 5′8 bowling ball in cleats, never succumbing to first contact — that endeared him to Michigan fans.

Fullback:

B.J. Askew (1999-2002): Askew started his career as a tailback, splitting carries with Chris Perry in his junior season before Perry proved himself capable of being a feature back in 2002. With Perry getting the lion’s share of the carries, Askew moved to fullback, where he became a dangerous option as both a runner and receiver. Askew’s best season statistically was 2001, when he rushed for over 900 yards as a tailback, but as a fullback in 2002 still managed to rush for 568 yards and six touchdowns while adding 36 catches for 280 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Wide Receiver:

Braylon Edwards (2001-2004): There’s very little left to say about this man’s collegiate career that hasn’t already been said: the man now reserves the right to choose which Wolverine receiver (if any) is deserving of the #1 jersey. That should say it all. If not, here are a few moving pictures to jog your memory:

Edwards is first all-time at Michigan in every career receiving category worth mentioning.

Mario Manningham (2005-2007): Manningham earned a place in Wolverine lore early, as his game-winning touchdown reception with no time remaining in the 2005 Penn State game made him a household name (at least in Michigan) as a freshman. He finished with 27 catches for 433 yards and six touchdowns as a freshman; 38, 703, and nine as a sophomore, and capped off his career with 1174 yards and 12 touchdowns on 72 receptions as a junior. He also had one of the finest games in school history against Notre Dame in 2006, tally three scores and 137 yards on only four catches. And, since there appears to be no YouTube video of just his touchdowns in that game (a crime, if you ask me), I’ll have to settle for posting his 2007 game-winning TD against Michigan State, a play that is one of my personal favorites, since I was standing in the Spartan student section (dressed in maize, of course) when it happened:

Manningham is ninth in school history in career receptions, fifth in yards, and fourth in touchdowns.

David Terrell (1998-2000): After a quiet freshman season, Terrell earned the “1″ on his jersey in his sophomore and junior seasons before becoming one of the aforementioned top ten picks in the NFL draft. As a sophomore, Terrell hauled in 71 passes for 1038 yards and seven touchdowns, including a 10-catch, 150-yard, three-touchdown performance in the 2000 Orange Bowl against Alabama. Impressively, there was only one game in 1999 in which Terrell didn’t have a catch of at least 21 yards. The 6-3 big-play machine followed up with 67 catches for 1130 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior before deciding to go pro early. Terrell is sixth all-time at Michigan in career receptions, fourth in receiving yards, fifth in touchdowns, and fourth in 100-yard games.

Tight End:

Bennie Joppru (1999-2002): Joppru broke out as a senior after three years of backup duty at tight end, setting the single-season school record for catches by a tight end in 2002 with 53, going for 579 yards and five touchdowns. The sure-handed option was a first down machine, and earned AP All-America third-team honors for his record-setting performance. Joppru is fourth in career receptions for a tight end at Michigan, and ninth in career receiving yards.

Tackles:

Jake Long (2004-2007): We’ll go chronologically here, since there’s so much to say about Jake Long:

• After redshirting in 2003, Long was living in a house shared by several U-M players in the summer of 2004 when the house caught fire at 4 am. He escaped the fire by jumping from a second-story window onto the hood of a car, covered in soot. He initially declined medical attention, but was convinced to check into the hospital, where he was treated for smoke inhalation and released two days later. Thus begins the legend of Jake Long, Badass.
• After sitting behind Mike Kolodziej for the first two games of 2004, Long took over as the starting right tackle, starting eight games on the season and earning second-team All-Big Ten honors from the coaches.
• Long suffered an ankle injury in August 2005 that forced him to undergo surgery and have two pins inserted into his left ankle. He returned a week earlier than expected, in the eighth game of the season against Iowa. He relieved Rueben Riley at right tackle in the third possession of the first quarter, and was the lead blocker for Jerome Jackson’s game-winning touchdown run in overtime. Long suffered another leg injury two weeks later, against Indiana, and was thought to be lost for the season when he reappeared wearing a protective boot in the second half. Instead, he started the next week against Ohio State, and also the bowl game against Nebraska.
• In 2006, Long moved to left tackle, starting all 13 games at the position. He was also named co-captain of the team. Long was a consensus All-American, Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, and the Rader Award winner. Instead of leaving for the NFL, where he was a projected first-round draft pick, Long decided to return to Michigan. His decision was the reason Mike Hart decided to stay for his senior year.
• As a senior, Long was even more dominant, again being named the Rader Award winner, Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year and first-team all-conference, as well as earning the distinction of being the only unanimous 2007 All-American, and was a finalist for the Lombardi and Outland trophies.
• In 2008, Long was taken with the first overall pick of the NFL Draft by the Miami Dolphins.

So, yeah, not a bad career.

Jeff Backus (1997-2000): Backus, who started all 12 games as a redshirt freshman in 1997, was named All-Big Ten in all four years he played at Michigan, including consensus first-team honors in 2000. He finished his career with 49 consecutive starts, second all-time at Michigan, and was named a second-team All-American by the College Football News and ABC Sports as a senior. Backus earned the Hugh J. Rader Award as the team’s top offensive lineman in both his junior (sole winner) and senior (sharing with Steve Hutchinson and Maurice Williams) seasons. Backus was selected with the 18th pick of the first round by the Detroit Lions in the 2001 NFL Draft.

Interior Linemen:

Steve Hutchinson (1997-2000): I’ll let the Bentley Historical Library take care of this one:

Steve Hutchinson capped an outstanding career with his selection as a consensus All-American in 2000 after earning first team accolades from CNN/Sports Illustrated during the 1999. Hutchinson, a two-time captain for the Wolverines, was a four-year starter and letterman at left guard. He made 45 career starts and did not allow a sack during his final two seasons. Hutchinson became the fourth player in Big Ten Conference history to be named to the All-Conference first-team all four years, joining Mark Messner as the only other Wolverine to achieve the honor. A native of Coral Springs, FL, Hutchinson was named the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year and was a finalist for the Outland Trophy Award. He was the 17th player selected in the first round of the 2001 NFL draft by the Seattle Seahawks.

Yeah, he’s probably deserving of a spot on this team.

David Baas (2001-2004): Baas was a standout wherever he played on the line, starting 38 straight games to end his career at left guard and center. He earned first-team All-Big Ten in 2002 and 2003 at guard, then shifted over to center five games into the 2004 season. That move went well, as Baas once again was named first-team all-conference, as well as consensus All-American honors and the co-recipient of the Rimington Award, given to the nation’s top center. He is a two-time winner of the Rader Award, sharing it in 2003 and winning it outright as a senior. Baas was chosen by the San Francisco 49ers with the first pick of the second round in the 2005 NFL Draft.

Adam Kraus (2004-2007): Entering Michigan in 2003 as a tight end, Kraus took a redshirt year and bulked up to become a solid interior lineman. He started eight games at center as a redshirt sophomore, 13 games at left guard as a junior, and started all 13 games in 2007 (eight at LG, five at center). Kraus was a two-time first-team All-Big Ten selection, earning the honor in 2006 and 2007.

The Offense, Condensed Version (including special teams, which weren’t voted upon):

QB: Chad Henne
RB: Mike Hart
FB: B.J. Askew
WR: Braylon Edwards
WR: Mario Manningham
WR: David Terrell
TE: Bennie Joppru
T: Jake Long
T: Jeff Backus
G: Steve Hutchinson
G: Adam Kraus
C: David Baas
PK: Garrett Rivas
KR: Steve Breaston

The defense will be posted tomorrow. Thanks to everyone that voted.

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With Michigan’s 2009 season wrapped up, and the decade coming to a close, I thought I would steal an idea from Dr. Saturday and have my readers vote on a Team of the Decade. So, I’ve come up with a list of nominees for every position, and I’ll be posting two position groups every day for the next week, leaving it up to you to vote for who should make the team. At the end of the month, I’ll tally up the votes and reveal the team of the decade. First up is the quarterbacks:

Michigan’s quarterbacks of the last decade have rewritten the school’s record books, although the fan reception of the team’s signal-callers have varied wildly. Drew Henson was the local high school hero with Heisman aspirations before signing with the Yankees and leaving Ann Arbor prior to his senior season. John Navarre was thrown into the fire with Henson’s departure, and, despite being the most prolific passer in Michigan history to date, was the object of much criticism during his three years as the full-time starter. Chad Henne was the freshman sensation, a five-star prototype who took the reigns from Navarre and wiped his name from atop the record books in a sensational four-year term as the man under center for the Wolverines. Who deserves to be the quarterback of the decade? Let’s take a closer look:

Drew Henson (1998-2000): Henson had by far the shortest career of any of the nominees, but may have also reached the highest heights. After mostly waiting in the wings as a freshman, and splitting time with Tom Brady as a sophomore, Henson took over as the full-time starter in 2000. After missing the first three games with a foot injury, Henson came out and had one of the most lethally efficient season in school history. He completed 146 of 237 passes (61.6%) for 2146 and 18 touchdowns to only four interceptions, posting a passer efficiency rating of 159.4, fifth-best in team history. He led Michigan to a 7-2 record in the games he started, and the two losses (to Northwestern and Purdue, of all teams) came by a combined four points.

John Navarre (2000-2003): The much-maligned Navarre took over as a sophomore when Henson chose baseball, and proceeded to post numbers never before seen from a Michigan quarterback. He ended his career first on the school’s career leader list in attempts, completions, yards, touchdown passes, and both 150- and 200-yard passing games (the latter a mark he still holds). In his senior season, he led Michigan to a 10-3 record and became the only Wolverine to ever break the 3000-yard passing mark, throwing for 3331 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Chad Henne (2004-2007): The first true freshman to start for Michigan since the legendary Rick Leach, Henne made quick work of the lion’s share of Navarre’s school records. He was named to the freshman All-American team after throwing for 2743 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first collegiate season, leading the team to a conference title and Rose Bowl bid. Although he was criticized as a sophomore after a 3-3 start (it’s not really Henne’s fault that he no longer had Braylon Edwards to throw to), he still put up impressive numbers, throwing for 2526 yards and 23 touchdowns. His finest season came as a junior, when Henne completed 61.9% of his passes, threw for 2508 yards and 22 touchdowns (to only eight interceptions), and posted an efficiency rating of 143.4. Henne struggled with injuries as a senior in 2007, but still finished his career as Michigan’s all-time leader in attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and 150-yard passing games.

Career Stats:

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On Wednesday, I compared Tate Forcier’s final freshman numbers with those of several notable true freshmen starters from the recent past. However, 2009 is done and over with, and I think every Michigan fan is more interested in how 2010 will shape up than looking back on this past season. So, I decided to see how the same freshmen I compared Forcier to fared in their sophomore seasons, and used that data to project how Forcier’s numbers might look in 2010. First, here are the stats from the freshmen seasons of the players I compared Forcier to (with the exception of Robert Griffin III, who was taken out because he missed most of the 2009 season due to injury):

*Win-loss record reflects only games in which the quarterback participated.
^Average passer efficiency is calculated using the players' average stats,
instead of averaging the players' passer efficiencies, if that makes any sense whatsoever.

And now, those same players’ statistics from their sophomore seasons:

Now, I took the average stat lines from the freshmen and sophomores and adjusted them each to a 300-attempt season, for the sake of making them easier to compare, and also because it will come in useful when projecting Forcier’s 2010 stats (he had 281 attempts in 2009, so 300 is as good a figure as any to project for next year).

And now, using the figures from the above chart, I took Forcier’s freshman year, adjusted it to a 300-attempt season, and then used those numbers to project how he will do in 2010. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results:

For context, Tate’s projected passer efficiency would place him 12th in the country this year, just behind Pitt’s Bill Stull and ahead of players like Tyrod Taylor (who I was shocked to see rated so high), Riley Skinner, Christian Ponder, Colt McCoy, Darryl Clark, Kirk Cousins, and, well, pretty much the entire rest of the country. Will this actually happen? I’ll go ahead and preempt the laundry-list of errors with this experiment with a few bullet points:

• First, and most importantly, this is an extremely small sample size consisting of mostly elite players. I have no idea how to calculate margin of error, but I’m sure it’s astronomical for something like this. So, please keep in mind this is based on the performance of just seven players, and seven extremely talented players at that (potshots at Juice Williams aside, it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a very talented player).
• The largest jumps in improvement for the above players were from the quarterbacks who had very poor freshman campaigns (Clausen, Williams, Stafford, and Quinn), while the quarterbacks who performed very well in their first season (Henne, Pryor, and Leak) exhibited far less statistical gains (or even regression) in their sophomore seasons. Since Forcier’s true freshman numbers fall much closer to the latter category than the former, and no sophomore on the list put up the numbers that I’ve projected for Tate’s 2010 campaign, it looks pretty unlikely that he’ll improve quite as much as the numbers show.
• I have no idea how to factor in that Forcier enrolled early for his freshman year — the extra experience almost certainly helped his freshman numbers, but how will that affect his sophomore improvement? Will he improve less than average, because some of the learning curve was taken out in Year One? Will he improve more than average, because he is already ahead of where most sophomores are at his age? That’s a whole other study, and I enjoy going outside every once in a while.

Now that you’ve taken this entire study with a grain of salt the size of Jake Long, here are the things that jumped out at me from the above numbers:

• Even if you scale back your expectations drastically from what I’ve projected, Forcier’s numbers still look very good. If nothing else, this has really convinced me that Forcier needs to be the starter next season — the improvement from freshman to sophomore seasons is too much to risk starting over with another true freshman, and I think most everyone can agree that Denard Robinson is not a viable option as a full-time quarterback from what he showed in 2009.
• It was very interesting to see that, while completion percentage and yards per attempt both improved around 15%, touchdown passes went up an astonishing 42.6%. Despite all the statistical flaws this study has, that number has to be significant. It’s also very encouraging. Think about the freshman mistakes Forcier made — many of them came in the red zone, when the field is shortened and poor decisions cost the team, and the quarterback, what should be easy touchdowns. I think that one of the biggest differences between a true freshman and sophomore quarterback is the ability to make the right read in tight spaces, and not to force a pass into the end zone. There will still be mistakes — just take a look at the interception rate, which barely moved — but they will likely be of the less back-breaking variety. I’d be willing to bet that Michigan’s red zone efficiency — 116th in the country at 67% — improves drastically next season, and much of that improvement will be the direct result of Forcier’s maturation as a quarterback.
• I know this post is about Michigan and Tate Forcier, but take a look at Pryor’s strange numbers — his passer efficiency went from a tremendous 146.50 as a freshman to a respectable, but worse, 128.04 as a sophomore. Much of this has to do with how he was deployed as a freshman — mostly as a runner, with few passing plays and easy reads that were set up by the threat of him running. As a full-time quarterback, he couldn’t be sheltered like that, and it showed. Unfortunately (for us Michigan fans), I don’t think you can point to those numbers and say he regressed. He simply wasn’t a normal true freshman starter, and was more adversely affected by the transition to full-time starter, with a full playbook and the full attention of opposing defenses, than the other players listed above.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. I had no idea how this would turn out when I started crunching the numbers, but I found it very informative. I personally don’t think Forcier will hit the above projected stats (and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to sound like a raving lunatic homer by predicting such), but even if he falls well short of those numbers, we should see a good deal of improvement out of the quarterback position next season.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Quarterback
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• Freshman QBs Through Eight Games: How Does Tate Stack Up Now?
• Freshmen QBs Through Five Games: How Does Tate Stack Up?

Earlier in the season, I compared Tate Forcier to a number of prominent true freshman starting QBs (after five games, and after eight games). Well, it wouldn’t make any sense to have done that and not take a look at how he compares after a full season. Without further ado, here are Tate’s full season stats, as well as those of the players I have compared him to and the average of the listed players’ stats.

*Record only reflects games in which the quarterback participated

This may come as a surprise to anyone who watched the latter half of Michigan’s season, but Forcier’s numbers compare favorably with his true freshmen contemporaries. The only stat listed in which he finishes below the average is interceptions, and even then he is just below the cut. No, he didn’t match the outstanding numbers of Chad Henne, Robert Griffin III, Chris Leak, or (sigh) Terrelle Pryor, but, with the exception of Griffin, Forcier didn’t have the talented weapons (or offensive lines) that those players did.

What should we take from this? For one, Michigan fans expecting Devin Gardner to come in and take over the starting job are forgetting that the Wolverines already have one of the country’s most talented quarterbacks at their disposal, with a year of starting experience to boot. Look at the above list of names again — with the exception of Williams (and Pryor and Griffin, who are only sophomores themselves), every one of those quarterbacks matured into a very good collegiate quarterback. Chris Leak is arguably the worst of the “very good” players, and he won a national title at Florida.

Yes, there are factors that the numbers don’t show — Forcier’s penchant for fumbling, for instance, as well as rushing totals — but they still paint a pretty clear picture, and that picture is of a true freshman quarterback who had the type of year that usually leads to college stardom. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at what we can expect from Forcier next season, based on the development of the above players as true sophomores. Do we really want another true freshman starter next season? I don’t think so, and I expect the numbers to back me up on that.

Similar Posts:

• A Look at Past Quarterback Competitions
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• Freshmen QBs Through Five Games: How Does Tate Stack Up?

A few weeks ago, I took a look at how Tate Forcier compared to other notable true freshman quarterbacks through five games. His stats compared favorably to pretty much everyone, including Chad Henne. Now that Michigan has hit the toughest part of their schedule, Forcier has seemingly taken a step back, at least in terms of numbers (I think the notion that he has “regressed” to be laughable — he went from playing against MAC teams and Indiana to Penn State and Iowa. The fact that he is not putting up the same numbers is not a surprise). First, let’s take a look at the numbers through five games, and then we’ll see how Tate — and the rest of the notable freshmen — stack up through eight games (NOTE: added Robert Griffin III, who should’ve been included in the first place):

And now, these same players’ stats through eight games:

*Record reflects only games in which the quarterback participated.

The first thing that jumps out at me: the quarterbacks seemed to regress towards the mean (now, what the mean exactly is for a true frosh QB, I have no idea). Forcier and Henne both dropped significantly, with Pryor and Griffin having very minor regressions, while Stafford and Quinn saw their stats improve after terrible starts. Through five games, the above quarterbacks had an average passer efficiency rating of 121.55. After eight games? 117.77. Now, this is a tiny sample size, so it’s very tough to take much away from this, but a slight regression makes sense: most of these QBs (Clausen and Quinn being the exceptions) play in major conferences, and the extra three games come in the heart of in-conference play, while the first five games are mostly comprised of non-conference games, which tend to be easier.

The other things to take away? Despite two pretty terrible games sandwiched around a one-drive cameo against Delaware State, Forcier still is in the clear upper echelon on freshmen quarterbacks. With the exception of Juice Williams, all of these quarterbacks became all-conference level performers by their final seasons (with the jury still out on Griffin and Pryor, of course). Stop freaking out, people. We still have a very talented freshman quarterback — but he’s just that, a freshman quarterback.

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• How Much Can We Expect Tate Forcier To Improve?
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Quarterback
• Tate Forcier vs. Other Freshman QBs: Final Stats
• Freshmen QBs Through Five Games: How Does Tate Stack Up?

We’re five games into the 2009 season, and already, Tate Forcier has led three fourth-quarter comebacks, quarterbacked Michigan to more victories than they had in all of 2008, and even had his named mentioned in some (incredibly premature) Heisman talk. Impressive indeed for a player who was taking snaps for his high school team at this time last year, but just how impressive is his performance? Let’s take a look at Tate and some other notable true freshmen starters through five games in their first campaigns:

*Quinn did not play in the Irish's opener, a 29-26 victory over Washington State

There are certainly some flaws in this comparison: not all the players were full-time starters at this point in their freshman seasons, and, due to the NCAA’s inane insistence on including sacks in a quarterback’s rushing total, I could not fairly compare each player’s contribution to the ground game. However, on some level, the numbers speak for themselves, and what they say is this: Tate Forcier is having one of the best, if not the best, season by a true freshman quarterback in recent memory. His completion percentage is up there with Henne, Pryor, and Clausen, and he far surpasses the latter two in both touchdowns and yards per attempt. The best comparison to Forcier is Chad Henne, and Henne had Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant and wasn’t running zone reads and breaking the ankles of Notre Dame linebackers.

There’s really not much I have to add to this. Forcier has been the most consistent performer on offense for the Wolverines, and has shown an ability to create plays and perform in crunch time that far surpasses most young signal-callers. This kid is special, and let’s not allow the letdown against the Spartans cloud that fact.

Similar Posts:

• How Much Can We Expect Tate Forcier To Improve?
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Quarterback
• Tate Forcier vs. Other Freshman QBs: Final Stats
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• Freshman QBs Through Eight Games: How Does Tate Stack Up Now?