Now that a week has passed since Michigan was completely screwed out of a Frozen Four appearance, I finally feel like talking about hockey again. So, let’s take a look at who returns, who is departing, and the batch of newcomers for Michigan hockey next season:

FORWARDS

Key departures: Brian Lebler (graduation), Robbie Czarnik (CHL)
Key newcomers: Luke Moffatt, Jacob Fallon

Barring some unexpected departures, Michigan should be very strong up front next season after losing just one player (Lebler) who participated in more than 12 games in 2009-10. Leading scorer Carl Hagelin could very well be a Hobey Baker contender after hitting the 50-point mark, and should be reunited with fellow senior Matt Rust to form one of college hockey’s most dangerous two-way duos. Add in sniper Louie Caporusso, and the Wolverines will be blessed with a trio of senior forwards who could all be up for postseason honors.

With just Lebler, Czarnik (who after 12 games this season for the CHL), and seldom-used Anthony Ciraulo gone from the forward ranks, the Wolverines will not only have star power but also great depth. A trio of promising freshmen forwards — Chris Brown, Kevin Lynch, and A.J. Treais — could be poised for breakout sophomore seasons, and 2008-09 CCHA Rookie of the Year David Wohlberg will be expected to produce more as well after a somewhat disappointing second season as a Wolverine. Seniors Scooter Vaughan and Ben Winnett, junior Luke Glendening, and sophomores Jeff Rohrkemper and Lindsay Sparks will provide third- and fourth-line depth, and the team will also welcome freshmen Luke Moffatt, the #35 overall prospect and a four-star in CollegeHockey247′s class of 2010 rankings, and Jacob Fallon (four-star, #37 overall) to the fold.

With Hagelin making recent remarks that both he and linemate Matt Rust will stay in school for their senior seasons, Michigan looks to be in great shape up front in 2010-11. Hagelin really came into his own as a playmaker this season, and if Louis Caporusso can consistently produce like he did in his sophomore season or at the end of this year, the Wolverines should boast one of the best offenses in the country.

DEFENSEMEN

Key departures: Chris Summers (graduation), Steve Kampfer (graduation)
Key newcomers: Jon Merrill, Mac Bennett, Kevin Clare

The Wolverines won’t get off quite so easy with the defensemen, as the team will lose captain, and top blue-liner, Chris Summers and top-four defenseman Steve Kampfer to graduation. Red Berenson has worked his usual recruiting magic, however, and Michigan will reload with a trio of highly-touted freshmen next season: Jon Merrill (five-star, #4 overall), Mac Bennett (five-star, #13 overall), and Kevin Clare (four-star, #31 overall) should all see the ice in 2010-11. Merrill and Bennett both have the potential to be top-four defensemen right off the bat, while Clare should have a good shot at being one of the six regular defensemen as well.

Those freshmen certainly won’t be without competition, however, as Michigan returns seniors Chad Langlais and Tristin Llewellyn, juniors Brandon Burlon and Greg Pateryn, and sophomore Lee Moffie from this year’s squad. Langlais, the team’s top offensive defenseman, should once again find a home on the team’s top defensive pairing, and Pateryn will likely join him after filling in for an injured Summers there during the CCHA tournament. Llewellyn, if he can keep out of the box, and Burlon are both solid second-pair guys, although they could be pushed by Merrill. The interesting battle will be for the last defensive spot — Bennett has great talent, as does Clare, and Moffie struggled at times in the defensive end as a freshman.

Even with the loss of two NHL-caliber defensemen, it appears Michigan will be strong on the blue line once again in 2010-11. That leaves hockey’s most important — and Michigan’s most intriguing — position group.

GOALTENDERS

By now, we all know the story: after a stellar sophomore season Bryan Hogan played nearly every regular-season game this season, and struggled, before going down with a groin injury and being replaced, spectacularly, by walk-on Shawn Hunwick as Michigan tore through the CCHA tournament and secured a miracle NCAA berth. With no departures or newcomers at the position, Michigan is now looking at a battle for the top goaltender spot, and for one, I have no idea how it will (or should) turn out.

Hunwick, after going 8-3-0 with a 1.82 goals against average and .918 save percentage this season, will be the sentimental favorite heading into next season, but there will be serious (and legitimate) doubts about whether a 5-7 walk-on can continue to play that well over the course of a whole season. Hogan, on the other hand, has proven before that he can be a stellar #1 goaltender, after a sophomore season in which he posted a 1.97 GAA and .914 save percentage in 31 games. After his numbers fell across the board in 2009-10, however, there will be a lot of questions about which Bryan Hogan will show up next season.

How this position battle is handled, and who wins it, will go a long way towards determining the success of the Wolverines in 2010-11 — Michigan appears to be loaded at every other spot on the ice, and will simply need a goalie who can consistently play well to make a serious run at the Frozen Four.

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After a pair of exhibition victories this past weekend, Michigan’s hockey team is set to open the regular season on Friday in Anchorage, Alaska. In preparation for the season, I fired a few questions at Michael Spath, who covers Michigan hockey for The Wolverine.

AA: What do you think the greatest strength of this team will be? Weakness?

MS: The greatest strength should be the defense. When you bring back two seniors in Chris Summers and Steve Kampfer who have played a ton, and you bring back juniors in Tristin Llewellyn and Chad Langlais and a pair of sophomores in Brandon Burlon and Greg Pateryn you’ve got six experienced guys who are all very talented. Summers could be the best defenseman in the CCHA. Generally he hasn’t gotten that kind of respect yet — he wasn’t voted first- or second-team all-conference before the year began — but you watch him play and he’s got everything you want. He’s a great skater, he understands the offensive game, has a good shot and ability around the net, and in the defensive zone he’s just a stud. I really like our defense. Even on nights when we’re playing top teams we should be letting up less than 25 shots a game.

The goalie is pretty good too – Bryan Hogan, a junior. He has some experience now that he’s played an entire year and has some postseason experience. The forwards, you know, I think it’s hard to do a weakness for Michigan, but if you’re looking at it I don’t think they have a lot of proven scorers – Louis Caporusso scored 25 goals last year but I think he had 18 in the first half of the year and really faded down the stretch. They have a lot of guys like Matt Rust and Carl Hagelin and David Wohlberg and Robbie Czarnik that they’re counting on to have their best seasons. That’s a Red mantra that you have to have a better season than the year before, and if those guys do, they’ll be just fine offensively. But if they don’t, and they give you what they’ve been giving you the last couple years, the offense, against some of the better teams, just might not be there.

AA: How concerned are you about the backup goaltending situation? Do you think Bryan Hogan can shoulder the load if Berenson needs him to play 40+ games?

MS: Well, the fact of the matter is, until the last couple years a single goalie played 40 games for Michigan every year. Al Montoya did it for four years, Josh Blackburn did it for four years before him, Marty Turco did it for four years before him, and Steve Shields did it for four years before him. It’s funny how quickly things change. For the longest time people gave Red a hard time because he had a single #1 goalie and that’s who he played, and then a couple years ago Noah Ruden and Billy Sauer started when Sauer was a freshman and split time, and then Sauer started his sophomore year, in his junior year he split time a little bit with Bryan Hogan, and his senior year Hogan and him split the entire first half of the season. If they need Hogan to play 40 games, and he has no health concerns, then absolutely that’s fine and he’ll do well in that role.

I am concerned about the backup goalie. I have nothing against Shawn Hunwick, but a walk-on that has appeared in one career game going into his senior year doesn’t give you confidence that if he gets thrown in there for any extended period of time beyond maybe one game or one weekend if it’s an emergency – that could very quickly be Michigan’s undoing. You talk about a weakness, if Hogan gets hurt and he’s going to miss more than a weekend, you’ve got yourself a serious problem.

AA: How will Michigan replace the playmaking ability of Aaron Palushaj? Do you think Louie Caporusso will be as productive without his departed linemate?

MS: You know, it’s interesting, because I asked that question to Louie specifically, and Louie came back and actually looked this up: he said that outside of the first half of the season, he actually didn’t play with Aaron that much, and he didn’t really play with him a ton in the first half. He played with him for about a ten-game stretch, and during that ten games Louie had, I think, about eight goals, but other than that he didn’t play with him very much. Louie actually played quite a bit with Matt Rust and Carl Hagelin on the second line.

In terms of replacing him, you know, every year there’s a guy, or two guys, or three guys that they lose that are a big deal that you look at the roster and you go, where are the points going to come from? Two years ago, they lost Kevin Porter and Max Pacioretty and Chad Kolarik, all off the first line. You lose your whole first line, and you go, who’s going to step up? Well, Palushaj and Caporusso stepped up. This year you lose Palushaj, and you say, who’s going to step up? Well, maybe those guys we talked about. Maybe Matt Rust steps up. Carl Hagelin had four goals over the weekend. That was exhibition games, but maybe he’s the guy scores 20 goals this year. Maybe Robbie Czarnik, I want to say he had three goals a year ago, but maybe he gets 10 or 15 goals. Maybe Brian Lebler steps up. There’s always going to be a guy who steps into that role, so I’m not really that worried about it. It’s just going to be if it’s one guy, or maybe three or four guys that are just doing a little bit more.

AA: It always seems like Michigan has one or two players who just come from out of nowhere and have really productive years. Which guy or guys do you see having a breakout season this year?

MS: I think Czarnik could have a breakout year. Like I said, he only scored three goals last year, but that was way below what he’s capable of. He’s probably a guy who, if he gets off to a hot start like his classmate David Wohlberg does, he probably scores 15 goals and 15 assists. Those are the kind of numbers that he should put up this year at least. He’s a very skilled forward, great skating, great hands, he can do a lot of things offensively. He needs to have a big year.

Brian Lebler is a person they keep on talking about. He’s a senior, a big body, he scored seven goals last year and he came on towards the second half of the year. He could have a good year, and kind of do what David Rohlfs did. David Rohlfs was a good plays and then had a huge senior year, scored close to 20 goals. Lebler, I don’t think he’d get 20, but he could get 15 to 18 and have a really good senior year.

The other player that I really like is Greg Pateryn, the sophomore defenseman. He came in, and he had only played one year in juniors out of high school, and he was clearly overwhelmed early, but by December he was playing really well and he was playing really well in January when Mark Mitera came back and pushed him out of the lineup. He’s very physical, and has got the body type – 6-2, 220 pounds – that can just be punishing as a defenseman. He seems to have realized the speed of the game and has caught up to that. If he can do a better job in terms of his skating and in terms of being in the right spot at the right time, I think he’ll have a really good sophomore year.

AA: What freshmen do you see stepping and playing a big role for the team this year?

MS: Chris Brown, because he’s a power forward, and those guys usually end up on a good line – a few years ago Pacioretty was on Porter and Kolarik’s line. I think he has a good chance of ending up on Caporusso’s line, or maybe with Rust, and being that powerful left or right winger that clears room in front of the net and benefits from playing with a playmaking center. I like Chris Brown a lot.

Then A.J. Treais, I kind of counted him out as a guy who was too small – he’s only about 5-8 – but Michigan has had great players before that were shorter. T.J. Hensick was 5-8, Mike Comrie was 5-8, Mike Cammalleri was only 5-10 or so. I think Treais can come in and be the center on the third line and produce 20 points or more this year too. So, those are the two guys that I look to this year the most.

AA: Michigan was tabbed as the top team in the CCHA by both the media and the coaches. Where do you see this team finishing, and do you see them as a Frozen Four-caliber squad?

MS: Well, they absolutely have Frozen Four potential. Two years ago, they went to the Frozen Four, and they won the CCHA championship and the tournament championship, and I think this team can be better than that team. I think they have all the pieces in place that they need. I think the defense is fantastic, the goalie will very good, and the forwards – even though that’s a little bit of a concern – I think they’ll rise up. I would say this: I would be very disappointed, with the Frozen Four in Detroit this year, if Michigan wasn’t playing in the Frozen Four. There are a couple other really good teams out there, and certainly within the conference Notre Dame and Miami are going to be pretty special, but I really think this team has it all and should be in that position.

The same goes for the conference as well. Notre Dame and Miami are going to be Michigan’s biggest competition, and somebody usually comes out of the blue and challenges a little bit. Those are going to be good teams, Michigan is a very good team. I think they play Miami four times, so they’ll have an opportunity to beat those guys. But yeah, I really like this team a lot. I think they’ll be playing for the national title, that’s actually my prediction. I don’t know if they’ll win it, because a lot of things depend, but I think they’ll be playing for the national title at the end of the year.

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The Wolverine’s resident hockey expert, Michael Spath, was kind enough to answer some questions about the Wolverine dekers. With the news dropping today that sophomore forward Aaron Palushaj has signed with the St. Louis Blues, there are many pertinent questions about next season. Spath provides his thoughts on the past season, as well as his outlook for 2009-10, in today’s Q&A:

AA: How do you assess Michigan’s season as a whole, after such a great regular season followed by two ugly postseason losses?

MS: After Kevin Porter and Chad Kolarik graduated, and knowing that Michigan might enter the season with an unproven goalie – I had assumed that Billy Sauer would not be the starter after struggling so badly in his second consecutive NCAA Tournament – I voted the Wolverines third in the CCHA pre-season poll and expected them to make NCAAs again.

But to look at their second-place conference finish and NCAA Tournament berth and think they accomplished about what we expected is ignoring the tremendous obstacles they faced this year. Senior captain Mark Mitera was lost for most of the year after suffering a knee injury in the first game of the season. Junior defenseman Steve Kampfer misses 16 games after being involved in a late-night fight following the second game of the year.

You add in the battle in net that resulted in sophomore Bryan Hogan assuming the No. 1 role and inconsistencies at forward with so many sophomores forced to carry the offensive burden and this could have been the year that everything imploded for Michigan like it did down the road at Michigan State.

Not surprisingly, U-M struggled in the first few months, acclimating to life without Porter, Kolarik, Mitera and Sauer – the four stalwarts from last year – going 9-7-0 in its first 16 games. But then, the Maize and Blue put it together, winning 17 of their next 20 in the regular season to place second in the league. That run has to be acknowledged when reviewing this season.

In the end, the final result might have been disappointing – Michigan, which fell 2-0 to Air Force in the first round, was poised, by the way it had been playing, to make another Frozen Four run – but this was a season in which the Wolverines took plenty of shots and found a way to overcome them.

Still, I cannot fault anyone if they feel unsatisfied with the way the year finished.

AA: Which player surprised you the most with his performance this year? By the same token, did any player not live up to your expectations?

MS: I would say I was positively surprised by three players – sophomore forward Louie Caporusso, sophomore defenseman Tristin Llewellyn and freshman forward David Wohlberg. Caporusso led the team with 24 goals after scoring 12 in his freshman season. He, like many of his classmates, was expected to add more offense but Caporusso was always known more for his playmaking and not his goal scoring. He really blossomed this year.

Llewellyn looked slow and overwhelmed for much of the 2007-08 season. He worked hard throughout his rookie campaign to improve and was a much better skater by the end of his first season. This year, he was a top-four defenseman most nights. He’s still not the quickest but he understood positioning far better and was rarely beaten to a puck. Most important, he added a physical element that the Wolverines’ blue line would have lacked without him.

Wohlberg, as has been discussed this season, came out of nowhere. He was a third- and fourth-line center for the U.S. Under-18 team, disregarded as a defensive-only forward. With some early success and confidence, he turned into one of Michigan’s most capable offensive threats night in and night out, earning a promotion to the No. 1 line. He just gets it on both ends of the rink and could be the top forward on the team next year.

In terms of disappointments, it’s always difficult to criticize, but I can tell you that Michigan was definitely expecting to get more out of senior forward Brandon Naurato, sophomore forward Ben Winnett and freshman forward Robbie Czarnik.

Naurato could have been a 15-goal scorer throughout his career but he was never willing to round out his game, failing to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. Winnett battled injuries but just seemed lost on the ice. I think U-M was counting on both him and Czarnik offensively to provide a consistent third-line scoring threat. Instead, they combined for nine goals and 18 assists.

[After the jump you'll find the rest of the interview, including Spath's thoughts on Bryan Hogan, next year's breakout players, and the strengths and weaknesses of the 2009-10 squad.]

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