Senior Troy Woolfolk could start at either cornerback or safety.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Yesterday, I took a look at the offense. Today, it’s the defense’s turn.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Defensive Line: Despite the loss of Brandon Graham, the defensive line should be the best unit for the Michigan defense in 2010. The key will be the development of sophomore Will Campbell, who has the size and talent to be a very good nose tackle. With Campbell eating space in the middle, junior Mike Martin can slide over the DT position played by Ryan Van Bergen last season, which is more suitable for a player of his size and skill set. Van Bergen, a natural end, should have no problem moving to Graham’s vacated DE spot. Throw in a full offseason of weight training for sophomore Craig Roh, who started at the Quick position last season despite not enrolling early, and a unit that was noticeably undersized in 2009 should be athletic and big in 2010. As for the backups, redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota will be a player to watch at defensive end, while senior Renaldo Sagesse will likely be the primary backup at both tackle positions. There is a lot of talent among the incoming freshmen, but the rotation could be tough to crack for players who are a little undersized (Wilkins, Black, Talbott) or out of shape (Ash, who is rumored to currently weigh over 300 pounds). Seniors Adam Patterson and Greg Banks will provide depth, but given their careers to date, I wouldn’t expect much more than that from them.

Linebacker: Michigan has a lot of experience at linebacker, but you could say the same about last year’s disappointing unit. Seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are your prohibitive favorites to start in the middle and on the weak side, respectively, but their underwhelming performances last season have opened up an opportunity for younger players to earn a starting role. Junior J.B. Fitzgerald saw playing time last season when Ezeh was benched, and with another season of experience he probably has the best shot at unseating one of the senior linebackers, although athletic redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens and former walk-on Kevin Leach will also compete for snaps. The position battle to watch may be over at spinner, where the graduation of Stevie Brown has opened a starting spot. Second-year players Isaiah Bell, Brandin Hawthorne, and Mike Jones all practiced at spinner last year, and all three should get an opportunity to see a lot of playing time in 2010 (although Bell might have grown into the WLB spot — he’s got 15-20 pounds on Hawthorne and Jones). I haven’t seen any of the three since last spring, but I like Hawthorne — the only one of the three to play linebacker in high school, and a great athlete — as the favorite for the spinner position. Of the true freshmen, Josh Furman probably has the best shot of earning playing time, also at the spinner position, while we can expect Antonio Kinard and Jake Ryan to redshirt in 2010.

Secondary: This is where things get crazy. The only guarantee for Michigan’s 2010 secondary is that Troy Woolfolk will start — only we don’t know whether he’ll be starting at cornerback or safety. I think Woolfolk will end up at safety for a couple reasons: (1) the safeties have to make pre-snap checks, something that I trust a senior to do much more than a freshman and (2) cornerback is a much easier position to come in and play immediately as a freshman. I expect Woolfolk to start at strong safety (the deep safety in Michigan’s defense) alongside redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien — a player some thought should have seen the field in 2009 — at free safety. True freshmen Marvin Robinson and Carvin Johnson, redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, redshirt sophomore Jordan Kovacs and junior Mike Williams will also compete for a spot at safety, but I think Emilien will ultimately win the job (in this case, it might be an advantage to have not played last year).

At corner, I expect redshirt freshman J.T. Turner — one of the highest-rated prospects Michigan brought in last year and a standout on the scout team — to start, and true freshman Demar Dorsey is too talented to keep off the field next season. True freshmen Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott, as well as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, will also compete for playing time, but I think the pure talent of Turner and Dorsey will be a lot to overcome. If you’re keeping score, that means I think Michigan will start a senior, two redshirt freshmen, and a true freshman in their secondary next year. The talent level and the experience are both scary, but in very different senses of the word.

Punter: True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will have the first shot at the vacated punter position, and I expect he’ll be the guy to take over from the immortal Zoltan Mesko. Kickoff specialist Bryan Wright has a big leg and could be called upon to handle punting duties if, for some reason, Hagerup doesn’t win the job.

Similar Posts:

• Knight to Rutgers & Your Signing Day Primer
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Recruiting Update: Part II (Rounding Out the Class)
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Please don't change your mind. Please.

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Similar Posts:

• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defensive Ends
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Cornerbacks
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Recruiting Update: Part II (Rounding Out the Class)
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defense

Jailbreak!

I just finished watching a large chunk of the Penn State-Minnesota game from last week (the torrent started coverage with around four minutes left in the first quarter, with PSU up 6-0, thanks to the Texas-Oklahoma game running long, and I stopped watching once PSU put the game out of reach), and have some observations from the tape:

• This should come as a bit of a surprise, considering Penn State racked up 177 yards on 43 carries against Minnesota, but I actually came away relatively unimpressed with their run game. There were generally two outcomes when they handed the ball off: There was the good, when Royster would find a seam, break the first tackle (Minnesota tackled horribly in the game) and get to the next level before getting taken down 8-20 yards downfield. Then there was the bad, when the offensive line allowed far too much penetration and Royster (or whoever was getting the carry) go nowhere. 21 of Penn State’s 43 carries went for three yards for less, and many of those looked like the play pictured above. This would make sense against a defense like, say, Penn State’s, but Minnesota is 87th in the country in rush defense. Michigan certainly isn’t great at rush D, but they do have several quick guys who can get into the backfield, and that could give Penn State a lot of trouble on Saturday. Further breakdown of the run play pictured above after the jump.
• Darryl Clark is very tough to figure out. On some plays, his mechanics are perfect, and he looks like an NFL quarterback that can fit a pass pretty much anywhere he wants to. On other plays, it appears that his mechanics completely fall apart, and he throws some very ugly balls. He had one pass, in particular, where he stepped up in the pocket, failed to set his feet, and completely overthrew a wide open receiver that had three steps on the defense and would have scored an easy touchdown. One thing I will say about Clark: he is a big, big dude, and when he runs it takes a solid tackle (and often, a solid tackle by several players) to take him down.
• Look out for Andrew Quarless, Penn State’s tight end. He caught a couple crossing routes when Minnesota brought heat, and Clark tended to look his way when facing pressure. Michigan’s linebackers better be aware of where he is on the field, especially when a blitz is called. He already has 21 catches for 224 yards this season and showed some nice hands against the Gophers.
• I’m not sure how much this was a function of Minnesota’s defense, but Penn State’s line performed far better in the passing game than the run game. They consistently gave Clark a nice pocket to throw from and a long time to pick apart the defense, and the Lions’ wide receivers were able to take advantage by finding holes in the Gopher defense. Michigan has had a very tough time getting to the quarterback this year, and that may continue this weekend.
• I don’t have a whole lot on the Penn State defense, since Minnesota runs a completely different offense from Michigan and generally appeared inept last week. One thing I did notice, however, was the aggressiveness of their linebackers — they fly to the ball and hit hard, especially Navorro Bowman. The Gophers did use this to their advantage on one play, setting up a screen that would have gone for big yardage, but Adam Weber threw a terrible pass that the running back couldn’t haul in. Look for Michigan to try to do something similar — we could see a lot of Carlos Brown leaking out of the backfield, a la the Indiana game.

Take all of this with a big grain of salt — it’s a pretty small amount of data from a game against Minnesota. However, keep an eye out for this stuff come Saturday — I expected to watch this game and see Penn State completely dominate, and while their defense delivered, I didn’t get the same impression from their offense. I think this team is beatable, although Michigan will have to play a great game to overcome that D.

Now for that run breakdown: Continue reading Watching Tape: Penn State-Minnesota

Similar Posts:

• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defensive Ends
• Weekend Recap: Graham & Hoops Dominate, Hockey Splits
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Wolverines on the Web Lays Bricks
• Michigan’s Team of the Decade: Defense

Greg Mathews will need to step up against Notre Dame.

It’s time for another round of “Five Things I Hope to See…”. How did Michigan do last week? Believe it or not, quite freakin’ well:

1. Minimal turnovers from the quarterbacks — I believe zero qualifies as ‘minimal’.
2. Solid play from the starting corners — Besides a couple overzealous plays resulting in pass interference calls, Donovan Warren had a great game, and Boubacar Cissoko was very solid before leaving the game early with an injury. So, check.
3. An outside receiver steps up — Hello, Junior Hemingway.
4. Michigan gets pressure on Tim Hiller — The Wolverines only recorded two sacks, but were constantly hounding Hiller, forcing several rushed throws and a couple interceptions. Check.
5. The offense opens up — Compared to last year, this absolutely happened. The added screen element to the zone read is a huge addition to the offense, and the team’s knowledge of the offense is miles ahead of where it was last year.

So, yeah, five out of five isn’t too shabby. However, Notre Dame poses a much more formidable challenge. What does Michigan need to do to take down the Fighting Irish?

1. Force the Irish to become one-dimensional — Despite having a ton of success through the air against Nevada (the worst team in the country against the pass last year), Notre Dame only managed 4.3 yards per carry on 41 attempts in their opening game. Granted, some of that came while killing clock, but the greater point remains: Michigan has the ability to shut down the Irish run game, and if they do so, the Wolverines can focus on avoiding the big play and getting pressure on Jimmy Clausen. Speaking of which…
2. Get pressure on Jimmy Clausen — Duh, I know, but this will be huge for Michigan. Anyone who watched the highlights from the Nevada game saw what Clausen can do when he has the time to set his feet and step into a throw; the guy has deadly accuracy and receivers that will get open. However, Clausen has not done well when facing pressure in his career; he has a tendency to get happy feet in the pocket and make poor decisions when the defense is bearing down on him. Notre Dame will almost certainly be doubling Brandon Graham at every opportunity, so Craig Roh, Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and the linebackers will be charged with getting to Clausen and forcing him to keep one eye on his protection.
3. Another outside receiver steps up — Unfortunately, it looks as if Michigan will be without the services of Junior Hemingway, who emerged against Western as Tate Forcier’s favorite target on the outside but is questionable/doubtful (depending on which Rich Rodriguez quote you look at) due to an ankle injury. Greg Mathews had a quiet game, catching two passes for 18 yards, and Darryl Stonum was all but invisible while not recording a single catch. One of those guys is going to have to produce against Notre Dame if Michigan hopes to consistently move the ball through the air. It’d be nice to see Stonum have a big game, as he is more of a deep threat than Mathews, but he’d need to show us something we haven’t seen from him before in his thus-far disappointing Michigan career.
4. Michigan gets an 100-yard day out of a running back — It looks like Michigan will be unleashing Brandon Minor after he sat out the WMU game with a bum ankle. That could be huge, as Notre Dame looks susceptible up the middle, and Minor is the Michigan back most suitable for crashing between the tackles 20 times in a game. Carlos Brown looked good last week, and should get the starting nod while splitting carries with Minor. If one of those guys ends up cracking the century mark, I like Michigan’s chances.
5. Utilize the bubble screen — Notre Dame DC Jon Tenuta is known for bringing a lot of heat via the blitz, which could either completely disrupt Michigan’s zone read or open up the field for big plays. The screen option on the zone read was wide open several times last week, and if Notre Dame is bringing extra guys off the edge, Michigan should have a lot of space available on the outside. If Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson can make the correct read and get Kelvin Grady or Martavious Odoms the ball in space, we could see some game-changing plays off the zone read screen.

The more I look at this game, the more I think Michigan has a really good chance of pulling the upset. Obviously, Warren and Cissoko need to have strong games against Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, but if that happens, Michigan suddenly has a decided advantage against Notre Dame. This one is going to be close, potentially decided by a field goal, a broken play, or a single turnover. I picked Michigan to beat Notre Dame before the season, and I see no reason to change that opinion after a first game that far surpassed my expectations. Michigan 34, Notre Dame 28.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum
• Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Craig Roh could make an immediate impact at the 'quick' position.

With football season a mere two weeks away, it’s about time to start making some predictions. Today, I will make five optimistic predictions for Michigan’s season. Next week (I’m taking a brief vacation this weekend) I’ll hit you with the other side of the coin, making five more pessimistic predictions. On with the show!

1. Michigan upsets a top 15 team — By my count, there are four squads that Michigan could face that would be ranked in the top 15: Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Iowa. Of those, Michigan gets the two toughest (PSU and OSU) at home. By the time they play any of those teams, Michigan should have an established starting quarterback and a decent comfort level with both the offense and defense. Personally, I think our best chance is against Iowa (as stated earlier on this blog, I think they’re overrated), but, last season aside, we own Penn State, and boy are we ever due for an upset against the Buckeyes. I like Michigan’s chances of taking at least one of those games.
2. Tate Forcier completes 60% of his passes — Boy, could this one make me look stupid, but between his performance in the Spring Game and fall practices, I’m pushing for the driver’s seat on the Tate Forcier bandwagon. Accuracy is probably his best attribute, and Rich Rodriguez’s bubble screens and quick passes should help bolster Forcier’s completion percentage while he gets comfortable at the college level. No, Forcier doesn’t have an elite NFL talent like Braylon Edwards at receiver, like Chad Henne did as a freshman, but he is surrounded by a lot of serviceable weapons (Minor, Brown, Mathews, Hemingway, Odoms, Gallon, Grady, Smith, etc.), which should help ease his transition.
3. Craig Roh records at least five sacks — Not a whole lot is known about Roh’s role at this point, as he wasn’t one of the early enrollees from this year’s freshman class. However, he is a pass-rushing demon who seems like the perfect fit at the ‘quick’ position, especially as a situational pass rusher. His size (listed at 6-4, 238 on the official roster) is far too small to play DE in Greg Robinson’s system, but he should have no problem rushing from a two-point stance off the edge.
4. Kelvin Grady catches at least 20 passes — This sounds a bit bold, to say the least, since only Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews had more than 20 receptions last year, and Grady spent the last two years on the hardwood, not the gridiron. However, Grady has impressed in fall camp, and from what I’ve seen of him he has a very impressive set of hands to go along with the speed and quickness we all witnessed while he played point guard for John Beilein. He could be very dangerous in the open field, and should be one of several players (including Odoms, obviously, as well as Jeremy Gallon, Roy Roundtree, and maybe Terrence Robinson) to see significant time in the slot. I’d love to see what he can do with a well-executed bubble screen; he could be a home-run threat for the Michigan offense.
5. As a team, Michigan averages over 5 yards per carry — The Wolverines’ offensive line will be much-improved from last season (they have to be, right?), and with Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, and Michael Shaw all returning (plus the arrival of freshman Vincent Smith, a spring standout), Michigan should improve markedly on their 3.9 yards per carry average from last season. Don’t forget that Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running the quarterback keepers instead of Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Plus, with a full year under Rich Rodriguez’s offense, Michigan should be ready to bust out some trickery this season, and we should see more big runs from a team whose longest run in 2008 came from the plodding Threet (58 yards against Wisconsin). All this adds up to at least a one-yard improvement per run this season.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum
• Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Can Darryl Stonum realize his potential in 2009?

Fall practice begins today (actually, it began about an hour-and-a-half ago), and there are a ton of unanswered questions when it comes to the Michigan football team. Here are five things I’m keeping a close eye on as fall practice progresses:

1. The quarterback situation — Well, duh. All eyes will be on Tate Forcier as practice begins, and they should be: he holds the key to Michigan’s success this season. However, I’m just as interested in the backup quarterback situation. If Denard Robinson comes in and establishes himself as the backup, I’ll be pleased. If Nick Sheridan still holds the backup spot when fall practice ends, I’ll be very concerned. It’s as simple as that. Also, we’ll see how many specific packages (if any) are designed specifically for Robinson.
2. Which receivers emerge? — Besides Greg Mathews and Martavious Odoms, there really isn’t a receiver on the roster who is guaranteed anything in terms of playing time, and even those two will have to battle for their starting spots. Will Junior Hemingway bounce back from a season lost to injury and illness? Who, out of Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, LaTerryal Savoy, and Je’Ron Stokes, will step up and take the second starting spot on the outside? Can Terrence Robinson or Jeremy Gallon make an immediate impact in the slot? Hopefully, all these questions will be answered by the time Michigan takes the field on Sept. 5.
3. The safeties — The scariest position group on the team right now (for Michigan fans) is at safety, where currently a true freshman (Vlad Emilien) and a converted corner (Troy Woolfolk) are slated to start. No matter what, the Wolverines will have two first-time starters in the last line of defense. If the news out of fall is anything but great regarding the safety play, there is much reason for consternation about the defense.
4. Impact freshmen — I’ve already mentioned Stokes, Gallon, and Emilien as freshmen who could contribute immediately. Will Campbell will almost certainly see significant playing time at the thin defensive tackle spot. Tailback Vincent Smith had a very strong spring and is vying for playing time in a crowded backfield. Will players like Craig Roh (quick), Fitzgerald Toussaint (tailback), or Justin Turner (DB, assuming he qualifies) push for playing time as well?
5. Stevie Brown — The much-maligned safety is now at the spinner (LB/S hybrid) position, and could be the key to a successful defense. Fans could not be pleased with his performance in the spring game, as he was undressed by David Cone, of all people, giving up a 40-yard run to a quarterback whose 40 time is on the wrong side of five seconds. Will this be the season he finally stops giving up big plays and performs at the high level he was expected to play at two years ago?

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum
• Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Jeremy Gallon will wear #29 for the Maize and Blue.

I’m pretty sure Michigan Sports Center spotted this first: MGoBlue updated the roster from just a spring roster to a full roster for the fall, and all the freshmen are now included. Here’s the full list of freshmen, courtesy of MSC:

2 – J.T. Turner
2 – Vincent Smith
4 – Je’Ron Stokes (I imagine this will be changed, as it would prevent Stokes and Brandon Minor from being on the field at the same time.  Also, Brandon Smith is listed as being #4 as well, and I doubt 3 people would have the same number.) [ed. The roster is now fixed, with Stokes listed as wearing #6]
5 – Tate Forcier
5 – Vladimir Emilien
7 – Brandin Hawthorne
13 – Adrian Witty
14 – Teric Jones
15 – Thomas Gordon
16 – Denard Robinson
26 – Isaiah Bell
27 – Mike Jones
28 – Fitzgerald Toussaint
29 – Jeremy Gallon
34 – Brendan Gibbons
73 – William Campbell
75 – Michael Schofield
76 – Quinton Washington
77 – Taylor Lewan
84 – Cameron Gordon
88 – Craig Roh
90 – Anthony LaLota

Other noteworthy numbers:

4 – Brandon Smith (as alluded to above, he switched from #28)
19 – Kelvin Grady

Now your NCAA 10 gaming experience can be even more realistic, if you ignore the fact half these guys aren’t even in the game (someday, somebody will explain to me why EA Sports insists on a 70-man roster limit with a reason beyond laziness). Interesting to see Taylor Lewan go with Jake Long’s old number and J.T. Turner take Charles Woodson’s. These guys certainly aren’t shying away from the comparisons. As for Denard Robinson taking John Navarre’s 16, well, I’ve got nothing.

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum

It's pretty safe to project Tate Forcier as a future starter.

Now that the entire class of 2009 is reportedly qualified (Justin Turner is supposedly on campus and enrolled, which would imply that he is academically eligible), I want to take a post I did on my old website and update it. Back in 2008, I went through 11 years’ worth of Michigan recruiting classes (1993-2003) to see, in the average class, what percentage of players stayed all four years, started at least 12 games, made an All-Big Ten team, etc. Then I took those numbers and used them to predict player outcomes for the Class of 2008. So, in step one of this post, I’m going to update the original numbers to include the Class of 2004, now that all of those players have played out their eligibility. To do this, I’m using Rivals.com’s recruiting data and Mike DeSimone’s recruiting outcomes page. The results:

Overall, Michigan handed out 242 scholarships from 1993-2004. Of those players:
•    117 (48%) started at least twelve games for Michigan
•    52 (21%) were taken in the NFL Draft
•    10 (4.1%) were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft
•    53 (22%) were selected All-Big Ten first-team at least once
•    19 (7.8%) made an All-American team
•    Charles Woodson (.41%) won a Heisman Trophy

As for how many players stuck it out through their four (or five) years:
•    149 (62%) played out their eligibility, meaning 93 (38%) left the team early
•    8 players (3.3%) left early for the NFL
•    3 of those players (David Terrell, Charles Woodson, and Tim Biakabutuka) were taken in the Top 8 of the Draft
•    Alan Branch went with the first pick in round 2, Adrian Arrington with the 30th pick of the 7th round
•    The other 3 (Alex Ofili, Ernest Shazor, and Shantee Orr) went undrafted
•    2 players (Clayton Richard and Drew Henson) left school early to play pro baseball (.8%)
•    9 players (3.7%) were kicked off the team for grade or disciplinary issues (I realize this is way low, but many of Michigan’s disciplinary casualties simply transferred for undisclosed reasons. Take that number with a huge grain of salt)
•    27 players (11%) transferred (not including disciplinary casualties)
•    16 players (6.6%) were not picked up for their fifth year of eligibility (Ryan “Yards After” Mundy falls in this category, since we weren’t going to bring him back before he transferred to West Virginia)
•    16 players (6.6%) had their careers cut short due to injury

Now, I’ll adjust the above numbers for a 22-man recruiting class, which is the size of Michigan’s Class of 2009 (numbers rounded up or down where appropriate, since we’re hopefully dealing with whole football players):

14 will play out their full eligibility
10.5 (that .5 will be determined later) will start at least 12 games
5 will become All-Big Ten first-team players
2 will become All-Americans
5 will be taken in the NFL Draft

After the jump, I’ll take a look at the 2009 recruiting class and make some projections using the above data: Continue reading Projecting Michigan’s 2009 Recruiting Class

Similar Posts:

• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Michigan Promotes Adam Braithwaite to Safeties/Outside Linebackers Coach
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum

Jonas Mouton thinks The Wolverine forgot somebody.

My employers at TheWolverine.com have been releasing weekly roundtables previewing the 2009 season. I’m working on getting in on those, but for right now, I’m going to post my picks for their most recent topic here on the blog. Their most recent roundtable ($) focused on breakout players. I’ll list my choice, then the choices (but not the commentary … you gotta pay for the good stuff) of The Wolverine’s writers. I have two cents, and they’re about to get thrown.

Breakout offensive player: Darryl Stonum, WR. I realize that Stonum has had issues living up to his sky-high potential, but he certainly isn’t the first Wolverine receiver to have his struggles as a freshman. He’s the most athletically gifted receiver on the team, and with more solid quarterbacking this season, I think Stonum will be able to show off his talent. Does anybody really think LaTerryal Savoy is going to lock down a starting outside receiver spot all season? My guess is Stonum, though sheer talent, will break into the starting lineup and have a very good season.

Chris Balas: Greg Mathews, WR.
John Borton: Brandon Minor, RB.
Michael Spath: Steve Schilling, OG.
Matt Pargoff: Steve Schilling, OG.

Breakout Defensive Player: Jonas Mouton, LB. People seem to have forgotten about Mouton, who really came on strong at the end of last year. All the buzz now is about Mike Martin, and I think Martin will have a good season, but Mouton should emerge as the biggest playmaker among the linebacking corps. He was well on his way last year, and I don’t think his spring injury will keep him off the field in the fall or away from the football.

Chris Balas: Mike Martin, DT.
John Borton: Mike Martin, DT.
Michael Spath: Troy Woolfolk, S.
Matt Pargoff: Mike Martin, DT.

Top Offensive Player: Brandon Minor, RB. This has to be Minor (or Tate Forcier, but that’s putting a hell of a lot of pressure on the kid) for the Wolverines to succeed in 2009. Michigan will employ the running back by committee, with Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw pushing for carries, but somebody needs to emerge as the number one back, and it appears that somebody will be Brandon Minor. If he can stay healthy, I expect Minor to be an All-Big Ten running back.

Chris Balas: Brandon Minor, RB.
John Borton: Tate Forcier, QB.
Michael Spath: Martavious Odoms, WR.
Matt Pargoff: Brandon Minor, RB.

Top Defensive Player: Brandon Graham, DE. Simply put, Graham is a force, and by far the most proven defensive player Michigan has to offer. I’m expecting him to challenge for the single-season sack record, despite being pushed farther inside by Greg Robinson’s defensive scheme. He’s auditioning for first-round NFL Draft status, so there’s no reason to expect anything less than beast-mode out of Graham this year.

Balas, Borton, Spath & Pargoff: Brandon Graham, DE.

Beast Mode, engaged.

Freshman Impact Player — Offense: Tate Forcier, QB. It better freakin’ be Tate Forcier. He had a great spring, and a great spring game, and currently carries the collective hopes of Wolverine Nation on his relatively slight shoulders. I think he’ll be way better than anything Michigan threw out there at quarterback last year (which isn’t really that hard), and his ability to make plays with his arm and his legs opens up a whole new dimension to Rich Rodriguez’s offense.

Chris Balas: Tate Forcier, QB.
John Borton: Tate Forcier, QB.
Michael Spath: Denard Robinson, QB.
Matt Pargoff: Brendan Gibbons, PK.

Freshman Impact Player — Defense: Vladimir Emilien, S. I must admit, the deciding factor in this pick may have been that I desperately want someone nicknamed “Vlad the Impaler” to play safety for us. Also, he has a big jump on the man I consider his closest competition in this honor, Justin Turner, by virtue of Emilien enrolling early. Both starting safety spots are there for the taking, and by the end of the year, I think Vlad will have conquered one of the spots, and impaled some opposing players in the process.

Chris Balas: Justin Turner, DB.
John Borton: Vladimir Emilien, S.
Michael Spath: Vladimir Emilien, S.
Matt Pargoff: Craig Roh, DE.

Similar Posts:

• Weekend Recap: Graham & Hoops Dominate, Hockey Splits
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Wild Recruiting Weekend Recap
• The Denard Conundrum