Earlier: Five Hopeful Predictions for 2010

After the last two seasons, the counterpart to my “Five Hopeful Predictions” post should come rather easily — I could probably pick five things that will go horribly wrong with the secondary alone and do pretty well for myself. That would be too easy, however, so I’ll do my best to keep the focus on the team as a whole while making my five pessimistic predictions for the 2010 season (if you’re curious, here is last year’s version — I went 2/5, for the record):

1. The team finishes 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense — Last season, the Wolverines finished 70th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and that was with Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk manning the secondary. This year’s secondary features no player of Warren’s talent or Woolfolk’s experience, and the results likely won’t be pretty. The good news? It is possible to field a decent team with a horrific secondary: last year, Cal (8-5), Stanford (8-5), and Florida State (7-6 against a very tough schedule) all finished 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense. Those are outliers among some awful squads, but they’re also the schools with overall talent most comparable to Michigan’s at that point on the list. Teams will throw on Michigan, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win. It does help, though, and the pass defense will likely cost the team some games in 2010.
2. Michigan’s defense records 20 or fewer sacks — Despite the presence of Brandon Graham and his 10.5 sacks, Michigan finished just 68th in the country with 22.0 team sacks in 2009. Graham is off to the NFL, and while the defensive line should still be the strength of the Wolverine defense, I don’t see how the team will fully replace Graham’s tremendous production while also trying to mask the deficiencies in the back seven. I still expect Craig Roh to have a big season, and Ryan Van Bergen is a very solid defensive end, but this team could have a tough time getting to the quarterback if for no other reason than that the secondary may not be able to slow down the passing game enough to give the pass rush a chance.
3. No player breaks the 1,000-yard rushing mark – With the coaching staff talking about rotating 3-4 players at running back, and the quarterback competition far from resolved, it’s tough to see anyone becoming the first Wolverine in the Rich Rodriguez era to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau. The player with the best chance to prove me wrong may very well be Denard Robinson, who could threaten to put up Pat White-level numbers if he emerges as the clear number one quarterback, but that’s a very big “if” with Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner vying for playing time. While the Wolverines have several talented running backs, it doesn’t appear that anyone has emerged as a workhorse back — sophomore Vincent Smith, who is fresh off reconstructive knee surgery, sits atop the depth chart with oft-injured junior Michael Shaw, who may not even be academically qualified to play. Michigan should have a productive rushing offense, but it will likely be by committee, and not with a star feature back.
4. Michigan converts less than 65% of their field goals – I predicted this last year, and senior walk-on Jason Olesnavage managed to come through and prove me wrong, hitting 11-of-15 field goals for a 73.3% conversion rate. Once again, questions surround Michigan’s kicking game, however, and with Olesnavage gone redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons or redshirt freshman walk-on Seth Broekhuizen — currently listed as co-starters on the official depth chart — will have to step up. So far, the kickers have reportedly been inconsistent throughout the spring and fall, and I expect similar results as the season kicks off on Saturday. With no upperclassmen kicker — walk-on or otherwise — ready to take over the job, we might witness some major growing pains in the kicking game this year.
5. The team loses at least two of the three rivalry games – Those games, of course, being Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. This may seem like a lack of progress after Michigan took down Notre Dame last season and came close to pulling an epic comeback in East Lansing, but that may be deceiving — both of those teams should be improved this season, and the Buckeyes appear to be bona-fide national title contenders. Michigan’s best chance at a rivalry victory will be at home against the Spartans, but road contests in South Bend and Columbus will be very daunting for a team so green on defense.

Let’s all hope I go 0/5 on these predictions, as my love for the team far outweighs any pride I have in my prognosticating ability. Starting tomorrow, the season preview content begins to wrap up with Part I of my predictions for each game.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Defensive End
• Five Hopeful Predictions for 2010
• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Defense
• Five Things I Hope to See: Penn State
• Game by Game: Part II (Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State)

Earlier: 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: The Offense

While the offensive side of the official depth chart lacked many unexpected moves, its defensive counterpart has some very intriguing — and unforeseen — twists:

The first thing that jumps out to me on the defensive line is the placement of sophomore Will Campbell — third string, a disappointing spot to be in for the former five-star recruit, who showed up to camp overweight at 333 pounds. He is stick behind senior Adam Patterson, who has all of eight career tackles in 25 appearances.

True freshman Jibreel Black earned a spot on the two-deep behind Ryan Van Bergen at defensive end, a very good sign from a player many thought would contribute immediately. The absence of redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota — especially in lieu of redshirt junior Steve Watson, who is on his third position in four years as a Wolverine — might not be a good sign for the former four-star prospect.

Your starting defensive line is redshirt junior Ryan Van Bergen at defensive end, junior Mike Martin at nose tackle, and redshirt senior Greg Banks defensive tackle. That’s a lot of experience along the line — this should be a strong unit up front.

They weren’t kidding about redshirt senior Mark Moundros making a serious run at Obi Ezeh for the middle linebacker spot — the former fullback is listed as a co-starter with Ezeh, who was benched late last season despite making 31 career starts in three seasons. This is a position battle that could very easily continue into the season, especially as Moundros becomes more accustomed to the defensive side of the ball. Sophomore Craig Roh and redshirt senior Jonas Mouton are your other starters. Roh is finally at the proper weight for a player who will spend the majority of his time blitzing, while Mouton has been impressive in fall practices after a disappointing 2009 season.

At cornerback, senior James Rogers gets the nod for now to start across from redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd. As expected, the backups at corner are all true freshmen — Terrence Talbott and Cullen Christian back up Rogers, and Courtney Avery sits behind Floyd.

The biggest surprise on the depth chart is true freshman Carvin Johnson’s rise to the top of the depth chart at spur. Johnson was an unranked recruit when he first committed to Michigan, but finished as a high-ranked three-star who was creating a lot of buzz on blogs and message boards. He moves ahead of redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, who most projected as the starter, and walk-on Floyd Simmons. Another true freshman safety, Marvin Robinson, has also landed on the two-deep — he sits behind Jordan Kovacs at bandit.

Redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon stays atop the two-deep at free safety, where is he backed up by another walk-on, redshirt junior Jared Van Slyke. Redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien, who many presumed would at the very least challenge for the starting job, is stuck at third string.

Special Teams:

The battle at placekicker is still ongoing between Brendan Gibbons, Rivals.com’s No. 8 kicker in the class of 2009, and walk-on Seth Broekhuizen, a fellow redshirt freshman. True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will start at punter, with Broekhuizen at backup. It could be an up-and-down year in the kicking department with two freshman handling the specialist duties — keep in mind the team will also have to find a replacement for kickoff specialist Bryan Wright, who transferred to Bowling Green for his fifth year.

Darryl Stonum will once again be Michigan’s top kickoff returner after he averaged 25.7 yards per return in 2009 and set the school record for single-season kickoff return yards with 1,001. He will be backed up by Martavious Odoms, who is one of three receivers vying for the punt return job, along with redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon and redshirt sophomore Terrence Robinson. Stonum should once again be an excellent return man, and Michigan should at least have a sure-handed player handling punts among the three candidates.

Similar Posts:

• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring
• Position Threat Levels: Severe
• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Defense

Today the position previews continue with a look at Michigan’s defensive ends, as well as the rush linebacker-ish position (honestly, we’ve changed defensive formations/schemes enough where I’m not overly concerned with getting all the terminology right) spearheaded by Craig Roh:

Returning Contributors: Ryan Van Bergen (RS Jr.), Adam Patterson (RS Sr.), Steve Watson (RS Jr.), Craig Roh (So.), Brandon Herron (RS Jr.)
Ready to Contribute: Anthony LaLota (RS Fr.)
Incoming Freshmen: Jibreel Black, Jordan Paskorz, Davion Rogers, Kenny Wilkins
Key Departures: Brandon Graham

Returning Player Stats:

The Projected Starters: After playing at defensive tackle in 2009, redshirt junior Ryan Van Bergen will slide back over to his natural defensive end position after Brandon Graham’s graduation. Van Bergen recorded five sacks in his first season as a starter, and he will be relied upon to pick up some of the pass rushing slack left by Graham’s departure. At 6-6, 283 pounds, Van Bergen has the size and strength to hold up against the run, and he is a solid all-around player at defensive end. He won’t put up Graham-like numbers, but Graham was a one-of-a-kind player.

At rush linebacker, sophomore Craig Roh will once again be the starter, and he should have a breakout year after adding 30 much-needed pounds since the 2009 season. Roh managed to put up decent numbers as a freshman despite being undersized and inexperienced, and his stats should see a big jump now that he can shed blocks and hold up better against the run game. Roh is a former four-star and Under Armour All-American, and his strong play early in his career indicated he will live up to that potential — he should be a dangerous threat as a pass-rusher and all-around playmaker in 2010.

The Competition: The Wolverines will be without one of their primary backups for the foreseeable future as defensive end Will Heininger recovers from a torn ACL suffered in spring practice. In his stead, true freshman Jibreel Black has made a very strong push to be Van Bergen’s primary backup, displaying a great ability to make plays in the backfield so far in fall camp. Former four-star Anthony LaLota should also push for playing time after adding 35 pounds since arriving on campus last year — he is still a very raw prospect, but he has all the physical tools to be an impact player. Redshirt senior Adam Patterson is listed at defensive end on the official roster, but recently has seen more time at nose tackle. He could back up a number of positions along the defensive line for the team this fall.

At rush linebacker, redshirt junior Brandon Herron will likely reprise his role as Roh’s backup — he is also a good pass-rusher, although at just 220 pounds he has had difficulties holding up against the run. Herron managed to record 20 tackles last season, but with Roh’s added weight he might not see the field as much in relief in 2010.

Others: Redshirt junior Steve Watson switched over to defense from tight end in 2009, playing mostly special teams while practicing at Roh’s hybrid position. Watson has moved down to defensive end this season, and should once again see most of his time on special teams while playing behind Black and Patterson on the depth chart. True freshman Kenny Wilkins arrived on campus with great size at 6-3, 262 pounds, but with Black’s emergence as a freshman who can play immediately he will likely take a redshirt year in 2010.

Michigan brought in two other true freshmen who project to play Roh’s hybrid spot down the road in Jordan Paskorz and Davion Rogers. Both will likely redshirt, as Paskorz is still a bit of a project at linebacker and Rogers — who at 6-6, 200 pounds closely resembles a broomstick in pads — will spend at least the next year packing on pounds before he can get in the mix for playing time.

Outlook: Although it’s impossible to replace a player with the talent and leadership of Brandon Graham, Michigan has a very capable and promising player in Ryan Van Bergen taking over at defensive end. He should see a spike in production this season after spending 2009 at defensive tackle, as should Craig Roh, who is much more prepared to handle the pounding of Big Ten football after adding 30 pounds of muscle to his frame. Jibreel Black has the chance to be an impact player right away as a situational pass-rusher, and the depth at both DE and rush linebacker is solid. While there will inevitably be a drop-off from the outstanding play of Graham, the team is still in good shape at the positions tasked with getting to the quarterback.

Previous Position Previews: Quarterback, Running Back, Outside Receiver, Slot Receiver, Tight End, Offensive Tackle, Interior Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle

For every position preview, click here or hit the “2010 Position Previews” tag at the bottom of the post.

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• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
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Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. Yesterday, I started with the spots that Michigan fans have the least to worry about — the “Low” threat category. Today, we move on to the positions I’m “Guarded” about:

Offensive Tackle: This may be somewhat surprising, considering Michigan has to replace a senior left tackle in Mark Ortmann, but I feel really good about the combination of talent and experience at the position. Redshirt junior Mark Huyge should hold down the right tackle position, and while he isn’t Michigan’s most talented offensive lineman, he’s a big (6-6, 305 lbs.) guy who can be a solid road-grater on the right side.

At left tackle, redshirt freshman Taylor Lewan has emerged in a big way this spring, and he will likely be the man defending the blind side of Denard Robinson or Tate Forcier (or both) this fall. Lewan is young and inexperienced, having not played on the offensive side of the ball until his senior year of high school, but coaches, scouts, and practice observers have raved about his talent. If he can add a few more pounds to his massive 6-8 frame by the fall, he could be a real force — Lewan hasn’t shied away from the Jake Long comparisons, choosing #77 at Michigan, and the similarities between the two are too striking to dismiss. I’m not saying Lewan will be the #1 pick in the NFL draft, but he has All-American level talent, and should be a four-year starter for the Wolverines.

Backing up Huyge and Lewan will be redshirt senior Perry Dorrestein, who provides starting experience and more great size (6-7, 305), and redshirt freshman Michael Schofield, a former four-star recruit who has also impressed this spring. I don’t expect the tackle play to be spectacular this season, but I think Michigan fans can expect solid play from the bookends of the O-line — combined with the strong interior line, the Wolverines should have their best unit up front since Rich Rodriguez took over.

DE/Quick: I realize Michigan doesn’t have a “quick” anymore with the move to the 3-3-5, but I thought it made sense to lump Craig Roh’s outside linebacker spot (which will blitz far more often than not) with the defensive ends (just Ryan Van Bergen’s position, not the DT/DE spot that Mike Martin will likely play).

Speaking of Roh, he could be poised for a breakout sophomore season now that he has had a full fall and spring under his belt in Ann Arbor, especially with the freedom to blitz he should enjoy in the new defense. After getting overpowered at times against the run as a freshman, Roh is now up to a solid 249 pounds, and should be a much better all-around defender who can hold at the point of attack.

At DE, Ryan Van Bergen will be charged with the unenviable task of replacing Brandon Graham. While nobody will expect him to replace Graham’s outrageous production, Van Bergen should benefit from a move back to DE after logging time at tackle last year, and he looked impressive rushing the passer in the spring game. The redshirt junior could also be poised for a breakout year, and should at the very least be a solid defender against the run after spending a season on the interior of the line.

Depth could be an issue among the pass-rushers, as most of Michigan’s backups fall squarely in the “unproven” category. Redshirt junior Brandon Herron should once again back up Roh — he is a solid option off the bench if Roh needs a breather or goes down with an injury, but he doesn’t have the sky-high potential that Roh has at the position. At defensive end, redshirt senior Adam Patterson and redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota should battle for playing time behind Van Bergen. Patterson has had little impact on the field in his four years at Michigan, while LaLota was a four-star prospect in the class of 2009 and an early enrollee — if he is physically ready for Big Ten football, he could be the guy who steps up and finds a spot in the rotation.

If Roh and Van Bergen can stay healthy, Michigan should get some very good production out of their pass-rushers, and Roh really has superstar potential as a pass-rushing terror. If Michigan is forced to play their backups extensively, however, they could be in some trouble.

Defensive Tackle: Michigan should be much-improved along the interior of the defensive line, with the emergence of former five-star recruit Will Campbell and Mike Martin no longer having to battle double-teams as an undersized nose tackle. Those two should be your starters inside, with the mountainous Campbell (6-5, 324 lbs.) over the ball at nose tackle and Martin playing the DT/DE spot across from Van Bergen. If Campbell can keep his motor going for every snap he’s on the field, he could be a brick wall that will be difficult to run against up the middle. Martin, who was out of position at nose tackle all of last season, should be better than ever at the DT/DE spot, where he can do what he does best: use his strength and quickness to penetrate into the backfield. Those two both have all-conference (maybe even All-American) potential, and should provide the Wolverines with a strong starting unit on the defensive line.

The primary backup at nose tackle will be senior Renaldo Sagesse, who has challenged Campbell for the starting job and really progressed as a player in the past couple years. He is a very solid option, and should see ample playing time as Michigan tries to keep Big Will fresh. At DT, Greg Banks has seen the majority of the first-team snaps while Martin recovered from a shoulder injury this spring, and he has stepped up and staked his claim to playing time with a very good spring performance. With Sagesse and Banks, Michigan will likely redshirt both Terry Talbott and Richard Ash — it would be very disconcerting if the Wolverines had to play their true freshmen extensively in the fall. This unit should be one of the best on the team, and the defensive line as a whole should lead the charge for the Wolverine defense.

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• Position Preview: Defensive Tackle
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Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be examining the foundation for the 2010 Michigan Wolverines: the five recruiting classes, from 2006 to 2010, that comprise the team. So far, I’ve examined the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. Today, I move on to this year’s sophomores and redshirt freshmen from the class of 2009:

Class of 2009 (Sorted by Rivals.com Rating):

The Upshot:

I’ve been doing “Who’s Left” and “Who’s Gone” for the last few classes, but in this case that seems unnecessary. So far the 2009 class has had just one loss: Adrian Witty, who couldn’t get academically qualified. So, let’s go straight to the analysis.

It goes without saying that it is far too early to evaluate a class that has all of one collegiate season under their belts, but the class of 2009 has already had a large impact on the field. That impact, of course, starts with the two quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson — both saw the field last year as true freshmen, and both showed flashes of brilliance while experiencing the expected freshman growing pains. Craig Roh stepped onto campus in the fall and immediately took over the starting quick end position, and is making the transition to outside linebacker this year. He looks like an all-conference candidate, and should be a leader on the defense for the next few years. Vincent Smith, surprisingly, was the other true freshman to have a major impact, filling in admirably when Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were injured and putting himself in position to start at tailback in 2010. Will Campbell, Je’Ron Stokes, Vlad Emilien, Brandin Hawthorne, Teric Jones, and Mike Jones all saw the field in some capacity last season as well — Campbell should start at nose tackle this season, and the other five will all battle for starting spots as well.

Several other players from this class will compete for snaps this fall after taking a redshirt year in 2009. Jeremy Gallon looked solid in the spring game and should have an impact in the slot and as a returner. Taylor Lewan has emerged as the leading candidate to take over the left tackle position, despite not playing on the offensive line until his senior year of high school — he could be a very special player with his huge frame and potential. Fitzgerald Toussaint is in the mix in a crowded offensive backfield, and Thomas Gordon has been a spring surprise at one of the strong safety positions in the new 3-3-5 defense — both could conceivably start, though Gordon has a better chance of doing so than Toussaint. Isaiah Bell has bulked up to 237 pounds and is fighting for playing time at linebacker, while Anthony LaLota is now a solid 263 pounds and could be in the rotation along the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Michael Schofield are both battling for playing time on the offensive line, but they’re each probably a year or two away from taking over a starting job. Brendan Gibbons will likely be the starting kicker in the fall, as he is the only scholarship kicker on the roster. Finally, Cameron Gordon has been the breakout player of the spring after moving over to the defense from wide receiver — he appears to have solidified himself as the starter at free safety, and could be the type of ball-hawking, hard-hitting player Michigan has sorely lacked at the position.

The jury is still out on one player in particular: Justin Turner, who has just as much recruiting hype as Will Campbell, didn’t see the field last year after arriving late and out of shape in the fall after struggling to qualify, and this spring has not been able to seize the open cornerback job over J.T. Floyd and James Rogers. Turner looks like he has outgrown the cornerback position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up at safety when this year’s crop of freshmen, which includes several cornerback prospects, hits campus.

Overall, this class has been a very solid one — Forcier, Robinson, and Roh provided early impact, several players will see the field in major roles this fall, and there is great potential for the future in players like Campbell, Lewan, Cameron Gordon, Vincent Smith, and more. After a three-year run of disappointing recruiting classes, the class of 2009 should be the one to lead the turnaround this program desperately needs.

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As you have probably read by now, Michigan’s players have revealed that the defense is moving to a 3-3-5 alignment for this season. Rich Rodriguez employed that defense at West Virginia, and now Greg Robinson will be in charge of using it to take advantage of the speed Michigan has on defense.

For those of you with a Rivals account, there is a great message board post about the 3-3-5 and how it is deployed. In short, the three down linemen can choose to attack the gap on either side of them, and the three linebackers either blitz or fill the gaps left by the defensive linemen. This allows a lot of flexibility for blitzes and adds a lot of unpredictability to the defense — the offense never knows for sure which way the line will attack and where the blitzers will be coming from. This switch makes a lot of sense for a team with a solid X’s-and-O’s guy at defensive coordinator in Greg Robinson and a lot of team speed (and not a ton of size) on defense. Here are four guys who I think will greatly benefit from the move to the 3-3-5:

1. LB Craig Roh –  Yes, that’s linebacker Craig Roh. The switch to the 3-3-5 means Roh will be occupying one of the outside linebacker spots, and he will likely be the fourth player attacking the line of scrimmage on every play. Unlike last year, with Roh at quick end usually coming off the edge on every play, where the offense could easily account for him, the flexibility of the 3-3-5 allows Roh to attack several different gaps and makes it harder for the offense to help keep him out of the backfield. Roh was already poised for a breakout sophomore season after playing his entire freshman year probably 15 pounds underweight and without any college experience, even in spring practice, and now it seems even more likely that Roh could put up some very impressive numbers this season.
2. DT Mike Martin – While reading about the 3-3-5, I couldn’t help but think of Martin and how perfect this defense sounds for a player like him. Martin is at his best when he gets to pick a gap and penetrate into the backfield, something he couldn’t do a lot of while stuck at nose tackle last season. Now, with five players likely heading for the backfield on any given play, and with Martin shifting over to DT, offenses probably won’t be able to send two offensive linemen at Martin on every play. We should see the Mike Martin everybody expected to see last year after his stellar freshman season — a freakishly strong and quick defensive tackle who is liable to blow up any play in the backfield.
3. S Jordan Kovacs – The benefit of having five defensive backs is that you can tailor the safeties’ responsibilities to their strengths — with one deep safety and two strong safeties (one who plays up and one who has to be able to drop back deep), Michigan has a lot of options for their defensive backs. Kovacs seems to benefit the most from the change — his strongsuit is playing aggressive run support and attacking the backfield, something Michigan will need from at least one of their strong safeties. With four other defensive backs on the field, Kovacs won’t have as much responsibility for pass coverage, the weakest part of his game. Michigan can mask Kovacs’ athletic deficiencies somewhat with this change, and allow him to play to his strengths.
4. LB Obi Ezeh – Ezeh now has linebacker help on both sides of him, and what I believe is a much simpler read on most plays (reading the defensive lineman in front of him and assuming responsibility for the other gap). With Ezeh, the problem has never been his physical skills, but being aggressive and making quick reads before the offense accounts for him. This should free Ezeh up to be a more aggressive player, and also allow him to blitz and take advantage of his physical skills. This move may save Ezeh his starting job, and could turn him into the type of player we expect to see from a four-year starter.

The scheme as a whole should benefit the team, which has a lot of speed on defense but also a lot of inexperience. The 3-3-5 plays to the strengths of Michigan’s personnel, something last year’s defense didn’t seem to do all the time (asking Kovacs to play deep safety, forcing Ezeh and Mouton to cover the field sideline-to-sideline, etc.). Also, as Hiesman84 stated in his message board post, this allows Greg Robinson to play “mad scientist” with his blitz schemes, something that should both benefit the defense and be fun to watch as a fan. This move makes sense to me, and should help the process of rebuilding Michigan’s most disappointing unit.

Similar Posts:

• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
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• Watching Tape: Penn State-Minnesota

Back in February, I took an early stab at projecting the offensive and defensive depth charts for the fall. Now that spring practice is underway and the new roster has been released, there’s a lot more information available about how Michigan will line up and who will be lining up where. So, I’ve taken another opportunity to make myself look really foolish in the fall, and updated my projected depth chart to reflect these changes. Here are a few notes on the changes:

OFFENSE

One player who has a lot of buzz surrounding him so far in spring is running back Mike Cox, whose running skills seem to be catching up to his outstanding athleticism and frame. For now, I’ve moved Cox up to second on the depth chart with Michael Shaw, behind the injured Vincent Smith. With all the talented players the Wolverines have at running back, I expect to see a fair amount of running back by committee come fall, and Cox should be one of the backs in the mix for carries.

At receiver, Roy Roundtree has been practicing at outside receiver, but I expect him to move back into the slot when Junior Hemingway returns healthy in the fall. Word from practice is that Roundtree and Martavious Odoms have become a dangerous combination when both see the field at the same time, so it would not be a surprise to see Michigan start two slot receivers next season. We’ll have to wait and see if that has any effect on the tight end position, but for now I’m keeping Roundtree as the top slot in my depth chart along with Odoms — down the road, I may split the slots into two positions.

On the line, it sounds like Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield are the players battling for the two tackle positions, so I’ve changed the depth chart to reflect that competition. Patrick Omameh, who some (including myself) originally thought would move out to tackle this season, has been playing (and impressing) at guard. I have him projected as the starter at right guard, with the experienced Huyge and Dorrestein at tackle — I wouldn’t be surprised if Lewan grabs one of the tackle spots, but he’s a redshirt freshman who is still filling out his massive frame, so for now I have him backing up Huyge.

DEFENSE

The big change here is the alignment — I recommend checking out this helpful post from Touch the Banner to get more familiar with the slight move to more of a 4-2-5 look:

From left to right along the line should be Ryan Van Bergen, Will Campbell, Mike Martin (injured for spring practice, so Greg Banks is playing there right now), and Craig Roh. The two interior linebackers are Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton, if they hold on to their positions. The weak side safety in the above graph is what Michigan is calling the “spur” position — right now, Mike Williams and Brandin Hawthorne appear to be the most likely players to start there, with Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon and probably Josh Furman (when he arrives in the fall) also competing at the position. The strong safety — Touch the Banner calls it the “boundary” safety, but I’ll use the more common term to save confusion — appears to be Jordan Kovacs’ position to lose, although Marvin Robinson could compete for time there when he enrolls in the fall. Vlad Emilien has received the first-team reps so far at free — deep — safety, although Cameron Gordon impressed when Emilien sat out with a minor injury this week. If Troy Woolfolk were to move back to safety, this would likely be his spot.

At cornerback, Woolfolk is obviously holding down one spot, and I’ll place him there in the depth chart until he moves (if he moves) to safety. J.T. Floyd has been getting the first-team reps at the other corner spot, and has impressed so far, although J.T. Turner will make a strong push for that starting role. Of course, the competition at corner will not be fully settled until the fall, when Demar Dorsey, Cullen Christian, Terrence Talbott, and Courtney Avery arrive on campus.

For the full, updated depth chart, hit the “Football Depth Chart” tab at the top of the screen, or simply click here.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Safety
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Five Players With the Most to Gain in Spring Practice

I had the privilege of attending Michigan’s first spring practice yesterday, along with Rich Rodriguez’s press conference. Before I get into my quick analysis of the presser and practice, I should make note of one thing: the media access to practice was limited to a 12-minute period when the team was split into position groups and doing drills. Between trying to get some decent photos and trying to decipher which drill I should be paying attention to (not to mention trying to figure out, with my complete lack of football-playing background, if players were actually doing the drills correctly), it was hard to glean much information of note from the actual practice. In fact, I really only took one thing away from the practice session itself, a point I’ll bring up later. I think I can speak for pretty much all the media in attendance when I say not to put a whole lot of stock into what you read about this spring practice — again, we saw 12 minutes of drills with the team split into position groups and spread across two football fields. Just making a note of that before I go into what I saw, and heard, yesterday.

With that out of the way, I’ll break down the one thing of note I saw and post some pictures, as well as give some highlights from the presser and new numbers/weights from the spankin’ new official spring roster.

THE THING OF NOTE

When I realized that I had no hope of seeing or understanding even 10% of what was happening in practice, I turned my focus to the quarterbacks and watched them go through a few drills. It didn’t take a Lombardian knowledge of football to see who will be the clear-cut starter for Michigan next season: Tate Forcier simply threw the best ball of any of the quarterbacks, and it wasn’t close. We all knew he would be the most accurate quarterback, but the zip he put on his throws also was very impressive — it’s safe to say his shoulder has healed up just fine.

Tell me something I don’t already know, you say. Well, for one, Devin Gardner’s mechanics have definitely improved since the end of his senior season at Inkster — he is releasing the ball at a much higher point than in any of his highlight videos from high school. Watching him throw, however, you can tell that he’s still really thinking about the mechanics of throwing, and his accuracy just isn’t at the level he’d need it to be to seriously challenge for playing time. Now, all of the drills we were able to see involved the quarterback throwing from the pocket, so we didn’t get to see Gardner show off his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but after watching Gardner today I’d be very surprised if he got extended playing time unless Forcier goes down with an injury. It looks like he could really use a redshirt year to get his mechanics to the point where his throwing motion comes naturally to him, as well as to learn the offense.

As for Denard Robinson, he also had some struggles with accuracy, especially on deep passes. Rich Rodriguez was with the quarterbacks during the drills that we watched, and kept harping on the quarterbacks to “drop the ball in the bucket” — in other words, to put a lot of air under the ball so it “drops” into the receiver’s hands. Gardner and Robinson had their struggles with that concept, and both quarterbacks also missed a few intermediate throws that you’d hope they will hit once the spring game, and obviously the fall, comes around. The good news is that both quarterbacks, as well as Forcier, did well hitting tailbacks in stride when they practiced swing passes out of the backfield. That may seem trivial, but those passes are an important part of this offense, and hitting a running back in stride can be the difference between a big gain and a backwards lateral (think Notre Dame, 2008).

RICH ROD’S PRESSER

I’ll keep this rather brief, as Tim has already posted a very thorough rundown over at MGoBlog, but here are some of the highlights from Rodriguez’s pre-practice press conference:

• Vincent Smith and David Molk are both out for the spring with knee injuries, but Rodriguez said they were progressing well in rehab and expected them to do “limited activities” by the end of spring ball.
• Rodriguez said he expected to “do some different things with Denard,” since he thought a player with Robinson’s athletic and football abilities shouldn’t be spending too much time on the bench. He also clarified that Denard would likely be seeing those extra snaps at receiver, since the Wolverines already have a lot of bodies at running back.
• Nick Sheridan will not be playing this season — he is finishing up school and preparing for a career in coaching. It sounds like he’ll be a graduate assistant at some point, but Sheridan can’t be a GA right now since he’s finishing up his undergraduate degree. He was hanging around practice in street clothes, however. Bryan Wright will also not be using his final season of eligibility, citing back problems as the reason to end his playing career.
• There will be an emphasis on playing more people on defense this season, now that there is a healthy amount of competition at pretty much every position. Rodriguez said Greg Robinson will be working on keeping his schemes relatively simple so the plethora of freshmen competing for spots can contribute immediately.
• Both Troy Woolfolk and Justin Turner are practicing at cornerback, but Rodriguez did say there was a possibility of either player also seeing time at safety.

NEW SPRING ROSTER

MGoBlog also has a breakdown of the weight changes in the new spring roster, so I won’t go into too much detail here either, but I thought I’d mention these interesting points:

• When asked if any players stood out for their offseason condition, Rodriguez cited a trio of redshirt freshmen linemen: Quinton Washington, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. Washington dropped an impressive amount of weight, going from 325 down to 307, while Lewan (283, up from 268) and Schofield (281, also up from 268) each added some needed pounds. Washington slimming down should immediately put him in the running for a starting role, while Lewan and Schofield probably still need to add a couple pounds (certainly possible before the fall) before they’re in that same discussion.
• There were gains pretty much across the board on both sides of the ball. Junior Hemingway is now a very robust 227 pounds — I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or not until we see him running full speed. Forcier gained six pounds, up to 194, which hopefully will protect him a little bit more from injury. On defense, Will Campbell is now up to 324 pounds, and he certainly passed the eye test — the guy is a physical specimen now and is worlds away from how he looked when he enrolled as a freshman. Craig Roh also added weight, and at 249 pounds he is now in the discussion at defensive end, a spot he was far too light for last season (Rodriguez specifically stated that Roh could see snaps at DE in the presser).
• Forcier still is wearing 5, even though I saw some rumors floating around that he would be switching to 4, his high school number. Instead, Cameron Gordon has taken that number, as he has switched officially over to safety. Teric Jones has also moved to safety, and Brandin Hawthorne is listed at the position as well — with Michigan slightly tweaking their defense, I’m pretty sure Stevie Brown’s position was reclassified from linebacker to safety, although I could be wrong there. If that is in fact true, it looks like that position battle will come down to Hawthorne, Mike Williams, and possibly Jordan Kovacs. Isaiah Bell is now up to 237 pounds and is listed at linebacker, as is Mike Jones, despite being only 207 right now.

FRESHMAN NUMBERS [end_columns]

PHOTOS

If you want to see more photos from today’s practice, I put up an album over on photobucket. They’re mostly of the quarterbacks, since that’s who I was watching for most of the time. If you want to see why Devin Gardner is such an intriguing prospect, check out the last photo: he just towers over everybody else.

That’s all I have for now. I’ll be updating the projected depth chart by the end of this weekend to reflect any changes in position or number. Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day (in a safe but enjoyable fashion, I hope).

Similar Posts:

• The Foundation: A Look at the 2009 Recruiting Class
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• Spring Football: Five Players I’ll Be Watching
• Five Players With the Most to Gain in Spring Practice
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Yesterday, I took a look at the offense. Today, it’s the defense’s turn.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Defensive Line: Despite the loss of Brandon Graham, the defensive line should be the best unit for the Michigan defense in 2010. The key will be the development of sophomore Will Campbell, who has the size and talent to be a very good nose tackle. With Campbell eating space in the middle, junior Mike Martin can slide over the DT position played by Ryan Van Bergen last season, which is more suitable for a player of his size and skill set. Van Bergen, a natural end, should have no problem moving to Graham’s vacated DE spot. Throw in a full offseason of weight training for sophomore Craig Roh, who started at the Quick position last season despite not enrolling early, and a unit that was noticeably undersized in 2009 should be athletic and big in 2010. As for the backups, redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota will be a player to watch at defensive end, while senior Renaldo Sagesse will likely be the primary backup at both tackle positions. There is a lot of talent among the incoming freshmen, but the rotation could be tough to crack for players who are a little undersized (Wilkins, Black, Talbott) or out of shape (Ash, who is rumored to currently weigh over 300 pounds). Seniors Adam Patterson and Greg Banks will provide depth, but given their careers to date, I wouldn’t expect much more than that from them.

Linebacker: Michigan has a lot of experience at linebacker, but you could say the same about last year’s disappointing unit. Seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are your prohibitive favorites to start in the middle and on the weak side, respectively, but their underwhelming performances last season have opened up an opportunity for younger players to earn a starting role. Junior J.B. Fitzgerald saw playing time last season when Ezeh was benched, and with another season of experience he probably has the best shot at unseating one of the senior linebackers, although athletic redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens and former walk-on Kevin Leach will also compete for snaps. The position battle to watch may be over at spinner, where the graduation of Stevie Brown has opened a starting spot. Second-year players Isaiah Bell, Brandin Hawthorne, and Mike Jones all practiced at spinner last year, and all three should get an opportunity to see a lot of playing time in 2010 (although Bell might have grown into the WLB spot — he’s got 15-20 pounds on Hawthorne and Jones). I haven’t seen any of the three since last spring, but I like Hawthorne — the only one of the three to play linebacker in high school, and a great athlete — as the favorite for the spinner position. Of the true freshmen, Josh Furman probably has the best shot of earning playing time, also at the spinner position, while we can expect Antonio Kinard and Jake Ryan to redshirt in 2010.

Secondary: This is where things get crazy. The only guarantee for Michigan’s 2010 secondary is that Troy Woolfolk will start — only we don’t know whether he’ll be starting at cornerback or safety. I think Woolfolk will end up at safety for a couple reasons: (1) the safeties have to make pre-snap checks, something that I trust a senior to do much more than a freshman and (2) cornerback is a much easier position to come in and play immediately as a freshman. I expect Woolfolk to start at strong safety (the deep safety in Michigan’s defense) alongside redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien — a player some thought should have seen the field in 2009 — at free safety. True freshmen Marvin Robinson and Carvin Johnson, redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, redshirt sophomore Jordan Kovacs and junior Mike Williams will also compete for a spot at safety, but I think Emilien will ultimately win the job (in this case, it might be an advantage to have not played last year).

At corner, I expect redshirt freshman J.T. Turner — one of the highest-rated prospects Michigan brought in last year and a standout on the scout team — to start, and true freshman Demar Dorsey is too talented to keep off the field next season. True freshmen Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott, as well as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, will also compete for playing time, but I think the pure talent of Turner and Dorsey will be a lot to overcome. If you’re keeping score, that means I think Michigan will start a senior, two redshirt freshmen, and a true freshman in their secondary next year. The talent level and the experience are both scary, but in very different senses of the word.

Punter: True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will have the first shot at the vacated punter position, and I expect he’ll be the guy to take over from the immortal Zoltan Mesko. Kickoff specialist Bryan Wright has a big leg and could be called upon to handle punting duties if, for some reason, Hagerup doesn’t win the job.

Similar Posts:

• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
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• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Defense

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Cornerback
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Defense/Special Teams
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• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
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