Junior Michael Shaw will be part of a heated competition to start at tailback.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).

Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.

[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]

At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.

Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.

Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.

Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen.  I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.

Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.

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Roy Roundtree looks like he will be an integral part of the 2010 offense.

There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

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Jordan Kovacs, and whoever else plays safety, needs to keep the ball in front of them.

I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:

1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
2. Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
3. Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
5. Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.

Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:

1. Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
3. Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
4. Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
5. Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.

It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.

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Darryl Stonum could play a big role in the return game this week.

Last week’s game was such a pasting it isn’t really worth looking at, so let’s dive right into the keys to the Penn State game:

1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Penn State ranks 16th in the country in sacks allowed (just one per game), so this won’t be the easiest of tasks. However, those of you who watched the Nittany Lions take on Iowa know how important it is to rattle Darryl Clark. While the Hawkeyes only sacked Clark twice, they were able to get in his face and force a lot of bad throws, and I believe two of Clark’s three picks came on passes that were tipped at the line. When he has time to pass, Clark can pick apart a defense, but when he feels pressure, he loses some composure and can become turnover-prone. Michigan will need that edge against this stout Penn State defense.
2. Make a big play in the return game — The Nittany Lions have had a terrible year when it comes to special teams — they’re 86th in net punting yards (despite having a punter who leads the conference in average yards per punt) and 87th in average yards allowed per kick return. I don’t expect much out of Michigan’s punt return game, as Greg Mathews hasn’t shown much ability to do anything besides catch the ball (and he failed to do that against Iowa, and was subsequently benched for Junior Hemingway). However, Darryl Stonum has looked good returning kickoffs, and his return TD against Notre Dame changed the course of that game. If Stonum can give Michigan good field position, like he did against Indiana, or simply break one off for a score, it could be the difference.
3. Punch it in — Against a defense as good as Penn State’s, you can’t afford to miss opportunities. The Nittany Lions are tied for first in the nation in red zone defense, allowing scores just 61% of the time. When Michigan gets into the red zone, they have to get points out of it, and the difference in the game could be which team can turn their red zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals. With Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown at least healthy enough to play, there’s really no excuse for Michigan to not be able to convert when they drive deep into Lion territory.
4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State has one of the best front sevens in the country, and should be even stronger with the return of Sean Lee this week. Their linebackers play aggressive, cover the field from sideline to sideline, and get to the quarterback. Michigan will have to find a way to slow down the pass rush, and I don’t think this simply comes down to the offensive line blocking well. With how aggressive their linebackers play, Penn State could be susceptible to the play-action pass or a well-timed screen. I fully expect Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee to utilize both in an effort to make the linebackers hesitant. If Michigan can keep the Lions away from Tate Forcier, they should have an opportunity to attack the weakest part of the Penn State defense — their secondary.
5. Get off the field — Michigan just could not get off the field on defense against Iowa, allowing them to convert several third-and-longs. Penn State ranks third in the country in third down conversions, getting the first at a 57% clip. Their rate can’t be that high if Michigan wants to have a chance in this one, and it will take an effort from the whole defense to slow down Clark and Co. Avoid those back-breaking third-and-long conversions, and the Wolverines have a shot at this one.

After watching Penn State play, I get the feeling that they’re quite vulnerable to an upset. However, the flaws on Michigan’s defense, in conjunction with the strength of Penn State’s, make it very tough for me to think Michigan will take this one. I think it’ll be a close game that comes down to a couple possessions late, but I think the Lions pull away at the end: 31-21 Penn State, in a game even closer than the score would indicate.

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Unlike most of this season, Michigan did a very good job in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Well, yeah, we lost this game, but there was actually a lot of good that came out of the 30-28 loss to Iowa. Here a some obsvervations from the game:

• Everybody else seems to have weighed in, so here’s my two cents on Rodriguez’s call to put Denard Robinson back in the game on the final drive: At the time, I couldn’t believe it, and on a final drive I don’t think a team should trot a player out there who causes heart attacks every time he throws downfield. It’s not just that Robinson isn’t very accurate yet; he’s never played in that situation, and he doesn’t have the arm to make up for poor decisions the way Forcier does. Yes, it turns out Forcier was concussed, and the point is moot now, but I just had a bad feeling from the moment Denard took the field. Again, just my opinion.
• The defense put in one hell of an effort, given the five (five!) Michigan turnovers on the day. The Wolverines held Iowa to just 5.1 yards per play, allowed just 34 rushing yards, scored a touchdown (albeit a gift from Ricky Stanzi, but still), AND managed a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter. If you told me they would play that well before the game, I’d have a hard time not picking Michigan to win.
• The offense, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Seven of the team’s 13 drives stalled after picking up ten yards or less, and the turnovers were so killer because almost all of them were completely unforced.
• Donovan Warren and Brandon Graham simply had monster games. I’ll never understand why Stanzi threw at Warren’s side of the field so much — he was just blanketing the Iowa receivers — but at least Stanzi had a choice to stay away from Warren. BG was blowing plays up, whether they were runs or passes, and basically lived in the Hawkeye backfield all night. These two guys are what is holding this defense together.
• Troy Woolfolk was a pleasant surprise at cornerback. He appeared to play quite well, and possesses the feel for the game that Boubacar Cissoko is lacking right now and the athleticism that J.T. Floyd just doesn’t have. Unfortunately, Mike Williams totally blew his assignment on a couple of Iowa’s touchdowns, and now we’ll have to see if the secondary gets realigned again or if the coaches will simply try to bang it into Williams’ head that he has to be the last man back at all times.
• The linebackers finally put together a complete game (at least until Brian puts out his UFR and anything I have to say here is completely mitigated). Stevie Brown clearly should have been a linebacker since day one — he made a huge play on the goal-line stand, has been a really solid tackler, and gets to plays very quickly. Ezeh and Mouton both raised their play from earlier this season — you simply don’t hold a team to 34 yards rushing if your linebackers aren’t having good games. Hopefully they can keep it up for the rest of the season.
• Huge day for the offensive line. They were opening up huge holes for the run game (which netted 195 yards on 4.3 yards per carry) and protected Forcier and Robinson very well when they dropped back (no sacks given up). Even though I think Iowa’s defense is a little overrated, that was still a big performance against a very tough defensive front. Also, nice to see Moosman snapping the ball much better — I don’t recall a single bad snap.
• It’s tough to really comment too much on the offense. Tate had a rough, rough game. He’s still a freshman, and we have to expect those kind of performances to happen every once in a while. He’s still one of the best true freshmen quarterbacks in recent memory. Denard got thrown into a really tough spot, had one great drive, and then threw a killer pick. He’ll learn from that as well. Minor’s fumble was the one turnover that shocked me — as a senior, you have to protect the ball in that situation, especially when the run was going nowhere to begin with.
• OK, I lied. Mathews’ turnover was also a stunner — he’s back there for one reason, and that’s to catch the ball. If you have to go to your knees to field a punt inside the ten, just let it go.
• Is any outside receiver going to step up on this team? Martavious Odoms and Kevin Koger continue to deliver week-in and week-out, and the outside guys continue to pull disappearing acts. This week, Stonum, Mathews, Hemingway (and Savoy, if you want to count him, since he saw a few snaps) combined for two catches and 16 yards. I realize Forcier often looks to his underneath guys first, but that’s still paltry production from a group of guys with too much talent and experience to be invisible like that.

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Odds are, Ricky Stanzi will throw a pick. Michigan has to capitalize.

It’s Thursday, so again it’s time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week (unfortunately):

1. Continue the success of the return game — Stonum returned three kicks for 60 yards, a far cry from the 218 return yards (albeit on seven returns) he had against Indiana. He didn’t really come close to breaking one, and Michigan could really have used the field position they enjoyed against the Hoosiers. Oh well.
2. Limit the freshmen mistakes — Up until his last pass of the game, Forcier managed to pull this one off despite teetering on the edge of disaster several times in the late stages of the game. However, you can’t really pin this on on Tate: the guy was doing everything he possibly could to will the offense down the field. Even with the pick in overtime, Tate did a tremendous job of not making a disastrous play until it reached a point where he finally tried to do too much.
3. Get to the quarterback — The defense, outside of the mammoth 17-play drive in the first quarter, played a very solid game. The D recorded two sacks and had several other hurries (Brandon Graham, especially, had a MONSTER game). This is one area that was tough to criticize last weekend.
4. Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — Michigan did have two 40+ yard completions, one to Koger and the late catch-and-run by Stonum. However, there really still isn’t a guy that Michigan can just send on a fly route and put the ball up there. Where art thou, Junior Hemingway?
5. Stay tough in the red zone — The Wolverines alternating between bending and breaking: the first State TD was a break, to say the least, and not in a good way, and the 15-yard touchdown run by Winston met little to no resistance. However, Michigan also held State to two short field goals, including one on the drive that ensued directly after the rollout punt FAIL. And Brandon Graham did this:

Which was awesome. Half-credit, maybe?

All in all, this could go anywhere from a 1/5 to a 4/5, depending on how you look at it. Let’s just say 2.5/5 and move on to the keys for Iowa before the vein in my forehead explodes.

1. Capitalize on scoring chances — When looked at from a pure points allowed perspective, Iowa’s defense is daunting, to say the least. They’ve given up a mere 13.4 points per game, good for 10th in the country (and only third in the conference, which is ridiculous). However, Iowa drops down to 32nd in the country in total yards allowed (302.6 per game) and 50th in the country in rush defense (122.2 yards per game). Now, I’m no Smart Football (seriously, check out that site), but that looks to me like a defense that has gotten a little bit lucky in the turnover department (anyone who watched the Penn State game probably has the same impression) and is due to give up some points. Michigan has to take points when they are available.
2. Force Ricky Stanzi to beat you with his arm — I must say, I have no clue why people are so high on Stanzi. He is currently 70th in the country in passing efficiency, and coincidentally just one spot ahead of Western’s Tim Hiller and three ahead of Indiana’s Ben Chappell. In five games this season, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. I realize that pass defense is the weakness of this Michigan team, but the defense actually did a solid job against State’s previously-productive passing game, and Stanzi is prone to mistakes. Semi-bold prediction: Donovan Warren comes up with a pick. Mark it down.
3. Get Brandon Minor at least 25 touches — It sounds more and more like Carlos Brown will not be available on Saturday (rumor is he suffered a concussion in practice, FWIW), which means lots of Brandon Minor and some Michael Shaw sprinkled in. As noted earlier, Iowa is actually somewhat susceptible to the run. Against a defense as strong as the Hawkeyes’, having some success on the ground would be huge. Minor only had four touches against MSU (for 2 yards), and that cannot happen again if Michigan wants to be in this game.
4. Jonas Mouton, please stop being an idiot — I don’t know what else to say on this one. Mouton, more than any other Wolverine (besides, maybe, whoever is playing corner opposite Warren) has been responsible for big plays by the opponent. He is insanely athletic, but gets himself out of position and gives up the edge far too often. If Mouton can regain his form from the end of last year, and stay in the game mentally, he could be a real force on defense. Michigan needs somebody besides Warren and Graham to step up and make plays; Mouton could (and should) be that guy.
5. Make a statement — A lot of people will be tuning in to this game to see if Michigan is for real. So far, we have beaten three crappy teams and a Notre Dame squad that looks to be borderline top-25 and lost to a crappy Michigan State team. Heading into the meat of the Big Ten schedule, this team still doesn’t really have an identity. Some how, some way, forge an identity against Iowa, and the momentum from a night win against a top-15 team could carry this team through the season.

I’m really torn on this game. On one hand, I think Michigan is a far better team than we showed last week, and Iowa has really played down to their competition in every game and looks ripe for an upset. On the other hand, this is a night game (and homecoming, and a “blackout” game) in Iowa, and we have a very young team that has yet to really prove themselves. I think this will be close, but home field gives the edge to the Hawkeyes … Iowa 27, Michigan 18.

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Michigan's defense gave Kirk Cousins far too much running room.

Boy, am I excited for this one. Here are a few thoughts on the game, based on my initial (and so far, only) viewing of the game from Spartan Stadium:

• I don’t know if anybody expected the loss of David Molk to have as much of an impact as it has thus far. His absence reaches far beyond the occasional bad snap — it’s pretty clear that Molk-Moosman-Huyge is a much more preferable combination in both run- and pass-blocking than Moosman-Huyge/Ferrara-Dorrestein. It was tough to tell from being at the game (and in the nosebleeds), but if I had to guess, the biggest factor in the running game disappearing was poor line play. Forcier was also sacked four times, and spent several other plays scrambling for his life. Just a bad performance from the line overall.
• The offense deserves much of the blame for this loss, but I don’t think you can let the defense entirely off the hook. MSU did everything they could to give this game back to Michigan, turning the ball over four times and committing some boneheaded penalties (State finished with eight penalties for 94 yards), but they moved the ball at will. The 17 play, 70 yard drive that led to the Spartans’ first score was pure torture to watch. I mean, look at this:
  

  1-10-MIST20	(12:22) MIST was penalized 5 yards.
  1-15-MIST15	(11:30) Running back rushed for no gain.
  2-15-MIST15	(11:15) Kirk Cousins passed to Charlie Gantt for 18 yards.
  1-10-MIST33	(10:49) Larry Caper rushed for 5 yards.
  2-5-MIST38	(10:12) Larry Caper rushed for 6 yards.
  1-10-MIST44	(9:37) Keshawn Martin rushed for 18 yards. MIST was penalized 15 yards.
  1-25-MIST47	(9:13) Kirk Cousins passed to Blair White for 9 yards. MIST was penalized 15 yards.
  2-16-MIST41	(8:59) Kirk Cousins passed to Blair White for 17 yards.
  1-10-MI42	(7:46) Kirk Cousins passed to Blair White for 3 yards.
  2-7-MI39	(7:31) Running back rushed for 1 yard.
  3-6-MI38	(6:50) Kirk Cousins passed to Mark Dell for 9 yards.
  1-10-MI29	(6:30) Kirk Cousins passed incomplete to Charlie Gantt.
  2-10-MI29	(6:25) MIST was penalized 15 yards.
  2-25-MI44	(5:49) Kirk Cousins rushed for 19 yards.
  3-6-MI25	(5:19) Kirk Cousins passed to B.J. Cunningham for 15 yards.
  1-10-MI10	(4:51) Running back rushed for no gain.
  2-10-MI10	(4:02) Larry Caper rushed for 2 yards.
  3-0-MI8	(3:17) Kirk Cousins rushed for 7 yards.
  4-0-MI1	(2:25) Touchdown. Larry Caper rushed for 1 yard.
  (2:25) Brett Swenson made the extra point.
  MI 3   MIST 7,   Plays: 17   Yards: 70   Possession: 10:02.

  The Spartans were penalized 50 yards on that drive, and yet were still able to convert two third-downs and a fourth-and-goal to put seven on the board. Excuse me while I kick the nearest puppy.

• How on earth do we let Kirk Freakin’ Cousins rush for 75 yards, including a critical 41-yard scramble in the fourth quarter? I really don’t know who to pin that one on: it could be the scheme, the d-line not keeping contain, or the linebackers not doing their job, but one way or another, that cannot happen in the future. If Ricky Stanzi starts gashing the defense for 30 yards at a time this weekend, I might just set my TV on fire.
• Darryl Stonum continues to be both electrifying and frustrating. He was the only Wolverine other than Tate Forcier to put up a productive game on offense, hauling in five catches for 95 yards and the critical 60-yard TD to put Michigan within seven. However, he couldn’t find a seam on kickoff returns, and, more importantly, put the ball on the ground early in the fourth to kill a promising drive deep in Spartan territory. Overall, Stonum had a great performance, and he really seems to be improving with each game, but he can’t make those kind of mistakes.
• Has the team’s tackling completely regressed since the first couple weeks, or is it just me? Maybe it’s just the image of Larry Caper shedding tackles en route to the end zone in overtime, but this team needs to wrap up and haul guys down on the first try.
• There were a few bright spots, so I’ll try to end on a happy note: Besides the terrible decision on the rollout punt, Zoltan Mesko had a great game, averaging 43 yards a punt and booming a long of 56 yards. Jason Olesnavage hit both his field goal attempts, including a 42-yarder. Jordan Kovacs actually looked quite solid in run support when Michigan brought him off the edge; I couldn’t tell how he did against the pass, but he did bring something to the table. Donovan Warren continues to merit “don’t throw at me” status. Brandon Graham continues to toss aside double teams to make plays. Tate Forcier continues to not get nervous. I’ll end there, before I start making asinine comments.

This game was rough, but we have to remember preseason expectations. I expect Michigan to have a solid bounce-back effort against Iowa, and we’ll learn a lot about this team as they try to rebound from a bad loss. It should be a very interesting week of football.

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The Wolverines could use a resurgence from Junior Hemingway.

It’s that time of the week again, the time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week’s keys:

1. Contain Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton — Kirlew forced the Denard Robinson fumble, and Middleton came away with two sacks (for seven yards lost), but I actually thought Michigan did a fairly good job keeping these two quiet for most of the day. However, results are results, and the line did allow Indiana’s two big-play defenders to come through with big plays.
2. Gel on the offensive line — To quote myself: “Losing the center is tough, however, since he is the man tasked with making the calls up front, as well as shouldering the responsibility of making sure the ball gets safely to the quarterback. Moosman and Forcier will hopefully have built a solid rapport in practice this week, as Michigan has already dealt with a few fumbled snaps this season.” Oops. The coaching staff is working on Moosman’s snap technique, and hopefully he’ll be much more comfortable getting the ball safely to each quarterback against MSU.
3. Re-establish a deep threat — Michigan’s outside receivers combined for a grand total of two catches and nine yards (one catch each by LaTerryal Savoy and Junior Hemingway). Against a solid opponent, that’s just not going to get the job done.
4. Shore up the run defense — On 32 of Indiana’s carries, Michigan gave up only 112 yards for a solid 3.5 yards per carry allowed. However, Indiana had 33 carries, and Darius Willis tacked on 85 yards and a touchdown in a critical fourth-quarter situation. Ryan Van Bergen has admitted fault for making the wrong check on that play, but a lot of things have to go wrong to allow a run of that length (namely, an Indiana tailback out-running the entire secondary). Hopefully, that play was a one-time-only mistake, and Michigan will do a better job of containing what has been a sub-par Spartan rushing attack.
5. Keep Brandon Minor healthy — Minor was limited to 12 carries and looked generally healthy, especially when tasked with converting a late 3rd and one on Michigan’s last drive (when he trucked a safety to convert the first down). Carlos Brown was the MVP of the first half, scoring two long touchdowns and tallying over 140 all-purpose yards on the game. Minor is a go for Michigan State and practiced yesterday. Check.

Well, that looks like 1/5 to me, which isn’t exactly surprising considering we barely eked out a victory over Indiana. Let’s move on to the key’s for Saturday’s game:

1. Continue the success of the return game — This game shapes up to be a shootout, so field position will be incredibly valuable. Darryl Stonum had a huge game on kick returns against Indiana — his 218 kick return yards were the highest total by any Big Ten player this season — and came very close on several returns to taking one all the way. If Stonum allows Michigan to start at the 35 or better after every MSU score, I like Michigan’s chances of out-gunning the Spartans.
2. Limit the freshmen mistakes — One of Tate Forcier’s desperate sack-avoiding tosses finally found its way into the arms of a defender, and Denard Robinson practically handed the ball off to Indiana on a seemingly innocent run. It’s tough to stress just how important ball security is in this game: it’s completely cliche, but one turnover can completely change the outlook of this game.
3. Get to the quarterback — Again, duh, this is part of winning football. However, Michigan could only muster one sack against Indiana, and has just four sacks in four games (good for 100th in the country). Anybody who watched the MSU/Notre Dame game knows that getting a little pressure on Kirk Cousins can lead to some spectacular errors on his part — get to Cousins (and Nichol) and Michigan could receive a few gifts from Sparty on Saturday.
4. Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — I’m just going to keep making this one of the keys until it finally happens: Michigan needs a consistent, viable deep threat. Rich Rodriguez’s offense is predicated on spreading the field horizontally and vertically, but since Junior Hemingway’s week one “breakout” against Western Michigan, Michigan’s only pass play over 40 yards was the 61-yard screen-turned-touchdown to Carlos Brown last week. That’s going to have to change at some point if Michigan wants to keep winning, and that point may very well be Saturday.
5. Stay tough in the red zone — If you want to point to one reason that Michigan managed to beat Indiana despite allowing 467 yards of total offense, it is this: The Hoosiers made it into the red zone five times, and five times they were forced to settle for field goals. Michigan State tops the conference in total offense and is fourth in scoring offense — they’re going to get their yards against Michigan. However, if the Wolverines can hold the Spartans to field goals while punching the ball into the end zone when given the chance on offense, well, my basic math skills tell me we’re going to win.

I have a really hard time seeing this game play out in any way other than a tightly-contested shootout, and when it comes down to it, I trust Forcier to make the plays to win the game that Kirk Cousins just hasn’t made yet. Now, let’s all say a prayer that he’s close to 100% come Saturday… Michigan 38, Michigan State 34

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Does Michigan have two All-Big Ten backs? Carlos Brown is making a strong case.

I still haven’t had a chance to re-watch the game (torrent is still downloading) but I have a few thoughts after a closer-than-expected victory over Indiana:

• If Tate Forcier is the agreed-upon MVP of this team, Donovan Warren is a damn close second. The overlooked fact about the controversial game-sealing pick was that Warren was playing unbelievable man coverage and Chappell should never have thrown that pass in the first place. Michigan fans should be pulling out every voodoo trick in the book to ensure Warren stays healthy; I don’t even want to entertain the thought of a Cissoko-Floyd starting cornerback tandem.
• Let’s hope Forcier got his egregiously horrendous pick out of his system early, and we won’t see anything like that again. I’m not that optimistic about this — freshmen will be freshmen, after all — but man, was that ugly.
• As Brian already noted over at MGoBlog, special teams played a huge factor in the victory. Darryl Stonum was constantly one block or juke or broken tackle away from taking a kickoff the distance, and Zoltan Mesko averaged 48.1 yards per punt, downed Indiana inside their 20 twice, and crushed a 59-yard punt in the fourth quarter that completely swung field position in Michigan’s favor. I doubt this could be seen on TV, but that 59-yarder had movement that I wouldn’t believe unless I saw it with my own eyes: from my vantage point (in line with the sideline in the north end zone, about 35 rows up), the punt started a few yards outside the right hashmark before hooking all the way to the left hash … the returner had no choice but to let it go. Great effort out of the special teams Saturday.
• Can we please get Kevin Koger more involved in the offense? He made a great catch up the seam for 36 yards on a pass from Denard Robinson, but that was his only reception of the game. The guy snags anything thrown near him, is great at finding open space, and I would much rather see him on the field than a backup receiver when we go four-wide.
• Carlos Brown is making a very strong case to split carries with Brandon Minor, even when Minor becomes fully-healthy. With Junior Hemingway going almost completely silent since the opener, Michigan is in need of a home run threat, and Carlos Brown is that threat. He was really effective on the ground, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and took his only catch (a very well set-up screen) 61 yards to the house. However, he only got one touch in the second and third quarters combined while Michigan’s offense mostly stalled. I’m not saying he’s better than Minor (only Minor gets that tough 3rd and 1 to ice the game by bowling over some poor safety), but he certainly brings something to the table that only he can provide right now.

I’ll have more on this game once I have a chance to watch it again. For now, enjoy WolverineHistorian’s highlights:

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Don't let this happen, please.

It’s Thursday, which means another edition of “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week’s game:

1. Establish Denard Robinson as a passing threat — 0-4, 2 interceptions. Bad. Two rushing touchdowns? Good. Still, Denard needs to show he can throw downfield with some accuracy if he is going to have consistent success running the ball.
2. Establish dominance up front — I should have clarified that this was pointed towards the defense. Well, the defense didn’t exactly dominate, and EMU had a fair amount of success running the ball in the first half. However, the defensive line (especially, of course, Brandon Graham) played fairly well against both the run and the pass. The linebackers, unfortunately, remain a point of major concern.
3. Obi Ezeh bounces back — Ezeh showed flashes against Eastern, making a few nice plays when he recognized a play early and attacked with confidence. However, there are still too many plays where he gets caught hesitating and gets taken out of the play. He took a step forward against EMU, but will have to take a few more to be the player we expect three-year starters to become.
4. One of the young tailbacks shows starting potential — Michael Shaw is a young Carlos Brown, if Carlos Brown managed to stay healthy. So yes, starting potential.
5. A cornerback besides Donovan Warren actually plays well — Eastern did not pass a whole lot, but Boubacar Cissoko looked much improved in the limited opportunities he was given to play the pass. That pass interference was just about the worst call I’ve ever seen made on a football field, and Cissoko had tremendous coverage on that play, so I was actually encouraged by a penalty. Yes, it has come to this.

At best, I can give Michigan a 2.5/5 for last week’s effort. Hopefully they’ll come out this week and show more improvement. Here are my keys to the Indiana game:

1. Contain Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton — The Hoosiers are by no means a good team, but they do boast two NFL-quality defensive ends in Kirlew and Middleton. Wolverine fans got a huge scare last week when Tate Forcier was slammed onto his back and stayed down on the field after the play; I’d rather not have to go through that again. The last thing Michigan needs is for Forcier to be uncomfortable in his own pocket. If Mark Ortmann and Mark Huyge (and Kevin Koger, to a lesser extent) can keep Forcier’s jersey (and bill of health) clean, Michigan should be able to pick apart the Hoosier defense.
2. Gel on the offensive line — With David Molk out and David Moosman returning (and moving over to center), Michigan will have to deal with a realigned offensive line for the second straight week. They responded well last week when dealing with Moosman’s absence, and hopefully will adapt just as well this week. Losing the center is tough, however, since he is the man tasked with making the calls up front, as well as shouldering the responsibility of making sure the ball gets safely to the quarterback. Moosman and Forcier will hopefully have built a solid rapport in practice this week, as Michigan has already dealt with a few fumbled snaps this season.
3. Re-establish a deep threat — Michigan eased Junior Hemingway back into the lineup last week, and he is now 100% according to Rich Rodriguez. It’d be nice to see Hemingway or Darryl Stonum stretch the field vertically a few times this game and keep Indiana from selling out against the run. If opponents are forced to respect Michigan’s ability to go deep, they’ll have a tough time stopping the run and not allowing a big play.
4. Shore up the run defense — Getting Jonas Mouton back into the lineup will help, but Michigan still has to prove that they can hold at the point of attack and stop the run consistently. The Hoosiers’ rushing attack is currently in the middle of the pack in the country (65th overall with 146.7 yards per game) despite playing a very easy schedule (Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, @Akron). The Wolverines should be able to limit Indiana on the ground, but will have to play better than what they’ve done so far this year.
5. Keep Brandon Minor healthy — Minor is again a game-time decision because of a high-ankle sprain. These are the kind of injuries that can linger throughout a whole season (or, in Minor’s case, seemingly an eternity). I don’t think the dropoff between Minor and Carlos Brown is enough to warrant risking Minor’s health if he is not close to 100%, while a fully-healthy Minor will provide a big-time weapon when the meat of the Big Ten season comes around. Minor was held out of practice yesterday, so I really doubt he’s close to 100% healthy. If Michigan can get away with sitting Minor and letting Brown carry the load Saturday, I think that would be the best course of action, especially with a trip to East Lansing just one week away.

It’s amazing how many question marks still surround this team (especially the defense) three weeks into the season. The D showed signs of improvement against EMU, and get a key cog back in Jonas Mouton. On offense, Michigan has established themselves as potentially one of the premier rushing teams in the country. I think that trend continues Saturday: Michigan 38, Indiana 20.

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