A couple weeks before last season, I threw out five positive predictions for the Wolverines. If you’re wondering how last season measured up to expectations, check out the post — none of the five came true (although Tate Forcier came close to completing the 60% of his passes I expected him to, finishing with a 58.7% completion percentage) and Michigan finished 5-7. This year, I’m throwing caution to the wind and trying my hand at this “optimism” thing one more time; here are five hopeful predictions for the 2010 season:

1. Denard Robinson averages 250 yards of total offense – There’s no question Denard Robinson is a special athlete, and if his passing has really progressed as advertised, he could put up some big numbers this season. 250 yards of total offense per game isn’t an outlandish number for a dual-threat quarterback — in 2009, that number would be good for 33rd in the country, and many of the players near the top of the list aren’t household names, but quarterbacks who can eat up yards on the ground. As a sophomore, Pat White averaged 261.3 yards per game, and while I don’t expect Robinson to match White’s production, I think he’ll come close, and close enough to make the Michigan offense very dangerous.
2. Mark Moundros totals 70 tackles – That’s right, redshirt senior fullback-turned-linebacker walk-on Mark Moundros, who is currently in a battle with redshirt senior Obi Ezeh to start at middle linebacker, will have at least 70 tackles, the exact figure Ezeh turned in last year. All indications point to Moundros as the probable starter come Saturday, and he had displayed solid tackling ability and a nose for the football since moving from fullback in the spring. It appears that Greg Robinson’s defense will have the middle linebackers attacking the line downhill, which should play to Moundros’s strengths. I don’t expect him to be a world-beater, or even an all-conference caliber player, but anything better than “decidedly below-average” will be a step in the right direction after 2009.
3. Carvin Johnson earns Freshman All-America honors – This doesn’t sound quite as outlandish as it appears in print, as Jordan Kovacs was a College Football News second-team Freshman All-American last year, but it still means Johnson will be a solid contributor to this year’s defense. The Louisiana native appears tailor-made for the spur position, which is essentially Stevie Brown’s linebacker/safety hybrid spot, as he is a very good tackler who drew rave reviews in his senior season after flying under the radar as a recruit. Johnson won’t be asked to do too much in coverage, but when he does, he shouldn’t be overmatched — he practiced some at cornerback this fall and recorded seven interceptions en route to being named first-team all-state in Louisiana’s largest division last year. Like any true freshman thrust into a starting role, there will be some bumps in the road, but I expect Johnson will be a pleasant surprise for the Wolverines in 2010.
4. A Michigan receiver breaks 50 receptions – In Rich Rodriguez’s first two seasons at Michigan, the production from the wideouts has been disappointing — Roy Roundtree led the team with 32 catches last season after Martavious Odoms paced the team with 49 in 2008. With Roundtree, Odoms, and Darryl Stonum all poised for big seasons, and Michigan’s quarterback situation looking like the best it has been since Chad Henne graduated, I expect at least one receiver to crack 50 receptions in a breakout season. The safe bet is for Roundtree to eclipse that mark while working from the slot, but don’t count out Odoms, a great possession receiver who is now working on the outside — he could see a lot of screens and quick passes that could pad his stats significantly.
5. Rich Rodriguez keeps his job – I’m not even necessarily predicting a bowl appearance, not with the defense in the shape it’s in, but I do think this team will show enough progression to allow Dave Brandon to keep Rich Rodriguez around for 2011. Rodriguez has seemingly caught every tough break imaginable in his two-plus years in Ann Arbor, and while this team still has a ways to go before they win like the Michigan of old, they’re certainly moving in the right direction. The offense should begin to resemble Rodriguez’s outstanding West Virginia units, and there is plenty of young talent across the board. I think this team will look just good enough for Brandon to give Rodriguez a chance to lead what should be an experienced and talented 2011 team, which only seems right, as Rodriguez has finally built the foundation for what should be a Big Ten contender.

Let’s all hope that these predictions hold up much better than last year’s, and I’ll have the flip side to this coin — my five “less hopeful” predictions — coming up soon.

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Michigan released its official depth chart today for the UConn game, and there are a few surprises on the two-deep for Saturday. The entire depth chart can be found at the Football Depth Chart page. Let’s start by breaking down the offense:

No surprise at quarterback, as Rich Rodriguez has said we won’t know who the starter is until kickoff; for the second straight season, we get three players all tied at the top. Devin Gardner, in Rodriguez’s words, will “probably not” redshirt this season — it looks like he has done enough in the coaches’ eyes to see the field this season and help the team. I still expect Denard Robinson to be the starter on Saturday, but we’ll probably see all three quarterbacks at some point.

Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw head up what should be a rotation of at least 3-4 running backs. Note that Teric Jones, who was recruited at running back but played in the secondary for the past year, is back at his natural position.

This is where things get a little interesting. Your starting wideouts are Darryl Stonum/Junior Hemingway and Martavious Odoms on the outside and Roy Roundtree/Kelvin Grady in the slot. This is probably a product of the depth and talent at slot receiver, especially with Grady having a breakout fall camp, and Rich Rodriguez’s subsequent attempt to get the best players on the field. The only true freshman on the depth chart, interestingly, is Jeremy Jackson — I suspect this is because he has by far the best hands out of the group, and he should be a reliable possession receiver if the team needs to use him.

The depth chart at tight ends looks exactly the same as it did last year. It will be very interesting to see how much this position factors into the offense with all the talent at receiver.

It appears that the veterans have held off the talented youngsters at tackle, as redshirt junior Mark Huyge and senior Perry Dorrestein get the nod at tackle over redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield, at least for now. They will be joined by what should be a very good interior line in left guard Stephen Schilling, center David Molk, and right guard Patrick Omameh. The depth across the board is very strong, and this should be by far the best offensive line Rich Rodriguez has had at Michigan.

I’ll have a breakdown of the defense either later today or tomorrow afternoon, and my game previews for the season will begin on Wednesday as we rapidly approach game day in Ann Arbor.

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The Detroit News published a feature on junior receiver Darryl Stonum today, in which it was revealed that Stonum got contact lenses this summer after discovering he had astigmatism, which may have been affecting his ability to see and adjust to the ball:

Stonum had his first extensive eye exam this summer and learned he needed contact lenses, making that second step a bit easier to complete.

“The first day of camp I had my contacts in, and I could see everything like in HD,” Stonum joked.

“My deep ball skills got a lot better because I can see the ball from when it’s in the air until it gets in my hands.”

Stonum’s vision problem wasn’t diagnosed until this summer after he took an eye exam.

Does that story sound a bit familiar to you? Check out this feature from last April on fellow receiver Roy Roundtree:

Here are the tools a wide receiver needs to succeed in Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense: Speed, athleticism, quickness.

Contact lenses.

Michigan wide receiver Roy Roundtree has possessed the first three items on that list since he arrived on the Michigan campus in 2008. It wasn’t until a few weeks ago that he found the fourth.

“In the first half of the spring, he was struggling catching some balls, and then we looked at him, and he’d squint at you,” Rodriguez said Saturday.

“That was the first sign, ‘You’d better get your eyes checked.’ The doctor said he didn’t know how he was walking a straight line.”

Roundtree had a breakout year in 2009 after discovering the wonders of corrected vision. Stonum has impressed so far in fall practices and is in line for a breakthrough season of his own in 2010. Might I suggest a new addition to Schembechler Hall?

Just sayin’.

In all seriousness, it’s good to hear Stonum is seeing the ball better after getting contacts, and hopefully his past vision issues help explain his lack of production in his first two seasons in Ann Arbor. If he can become a reliable target like Roundtree did last season, Michigan’s receiving corps should be very dangerous.

As for any other receivers on the roster who may be having trouble catching the ball, well, consult the above chart — if you have a tough time picking up the object at the top, you might want to consider getting to an optometrist, STAT.

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While I’m sure we’re all still reeling from last night’s injury news, the show must go on. So far this week I’ve previewed the quarterbacks and the running backs, and now it’s time to take a look at Michigan’s outside receivers:

Returning Contributors: Junior Hemingway (RS Jr.), Je’Ron Stokes (So.), Darryl Stonum (Jr.)
Incoming Freshmen: Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson
Key Losses: Greg Mathews (graduation), LaTerryal Savoy (graduation)

Returning Player Stats:

The Projected Starters: Despite losing the dependable Greg Mathews to graduation, Michigan returns two outside receivers with starting experience in Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum. At 6-1, 225 pounds, Hemingway is a big target, and in each of the last two season openers he has shown the ability to be a solid deep threat, especially while tallying five catches for 103 yards and two scores against Western Michigan in 2009. He has struggled with injuries and consistency, however, and will need to step up his level of play this year in the absence of the sure-handed Mathews.

Stonum came into Michigan in 2008 as a blue-chip recruit, but so far the Texas native has fallen short of expectations in amassing just 27 career receptions for 275 yards and two touchdowns in 23 career games (13 starts). Early reports out of fall camp have been very positive, however, and if Stonum can put it all together he could be a breakout star in 2010. He has already shown game-breaking speed as a kick returner, and has reportedly improved his hands, route running, and ball skills since last season. If the practice reports are true, Stonum should be Michigan’s top outside threat and a player who could really stretch the field vertically.

The Competition: The Wolverines are very young at outside receiver — sophomore Je’Ron Stokes, who had two catches against Delaware State last fall, is the only backup to ever see meaningful playing time. Stokes, like Stonum, was a high four-star prospect according to Rivals.com, Though he didn’t get much of a chance to show off any skills beyond run blocking last season, Stokes is said to possess both great hands and outstanding overall athleticism, as well as the versatility to play both outside or in the slot — if he can live up to the recruiting hype, like Stonum, this could be a breakout year for Stokes.

Behind Stokes, Michigan has brought in four freshmen receivers, three of whom — Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, and Jerald Robinson — enrolled early in the spring. Robinson appears the closest to seeing the field immediately; he was a four-star to Scout and a three-star to Rivals, and has drawn praise for his hands, jump-ball skills, and ability to make a catch in traffic, though he may lack ideal top-end speed. At 6-4, 212 pounds, Miller has a college-ready body, and the only thing standing between him and significant playing time may be his inconsistency catching the football — he’s another player who can go up and get the ball, but he has to prove he can reliably catch the short to intermediate passes. Jackson, on the other hand, probably possesses the best pair of hands in the group, but his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue at this level — if he can find a way to get open, he will be a solid possession receiver, but there’s work to be done before he reaches that point. The fourth freshman, D.J. Williamson, is a high school track star (he won the Ohio Division I state title in both the 100- and 200-yard dash as a senior) who will likely redshirt. He has a lot of potential, but will have to refine his skills as a receiver before he sees the field.

It is worth noting that Michigan will likely utilize some of their slot receivers on the outside this year, as MGoBlog’s Tim Sullivan’s notes from offensive coordinator Calvin Magee’s press conference indicates:

Some slot receivers could see action on the outside. [Roy] Roundtree, [Kelvin] Grady, Terrance Robinson, and [Martavious] Odoms, could all play inside and outside. Nobody is separating at outside WR yet because they’re all so close. There will be 5-6 guys who can play both receiver positions.

Roy Roundtree especially has been discussed as a guy who could play either inside or outside, and with the bevy of young talent in the slot for Michigan he could see a lot of action on the outside this fall.

Outlook: Outside receiver is a huge wild card for the Michigan offense this fall. The talent is there to have a productive receiving corps, but the poor production from the last two seasons means the players really need to step it up on the field. For Stonum, especially, it’s now-or-never time if he wants to prove the recruiting hype was well-deserved — he could be the key to an explosive Wolverine offense if he becomes a reliable deep threat. A lot of the talent here is at least a year or two away from contributing, so the veteran receivers will have to consistently produce if Michigan wants their outside receivers to be a strength in 2010.

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Yesterday I posted the five players with the most to gain in Michigan’s fall camp, which kicks off in just three days. Of course, when you have players potentially moving up the depth chart, others are faced with taking on a diminished role, so today the focus will be on the players who will have an eye on the rear-view mirror when fall practices begin Monday:

1. Tate Forcier, Soph. QB: Fellow sophomore quarterback Denard Robinson topped yesterday’s list, so it is only fitting that last year’s starter leads off today’s. Robinson appeared to hold the edge in the QB race after a strong spring performance that ended with him running the first-team offense in the spring game, and the stark contrast in media day comments about the two quarterbacks leads one to believe Forcier has some work to do if he wants to keep his starting job. The task could be very difficult for Forcier as he not only has to show strides on the field, but also regain the trust of his teammates after less-than-stellar attendance at voluntary summer workouts. Forcier has shown the ability to be a very good collegiate quarterback — now he has to show the work ethic necessary to be good on a consistent basis and the leadership expected from the chief signal-caller.
2. Obi Ezeh, RS Sr. LB: The embattled three-year starter topped this list in the spring, and the pressure remains on Ezeh to prove he can be a solid starter at middle linebacker this fall. After falling well short of expectations the past two seasons, and with talented linebackers like Kenny Demens and J.B. Fitzgerald (who is practicing at OLB but has experience in the middle) each entering their third year in the program, Ezeh will have to perform if he wants to finish his career as a starter. The fact that senior Mark Moundros was moved from fullback to middle linebacker in the spring says a lot about the uncertainty at the position, and the coaches showed a willingness to shake things up when they benched Ezeh during the 2009 season because of ineffective play. This is his last shot, and he knows it — now it’s time to deliver or see if one of the other players can provide steady play in the middle.
3. Vlad Emilien, Soph. FS: The former four-star recruit was expected to make a strong push for the starting free safety spot after spending much of 2009 still recovering from a high school knee injury, but instead redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon moved from wideout to safety and was the breakout star of spring practice. After burning his redshirt on special teams last year, Emilien is faced with looking up the depth chart at a guy with more eligibility — he’ll have to prove he’s fully recovered from that torn ACL and comfortable knowing the defense if he wants to pass Gordon and see action on more than just special teams again in 2010.
4. Darryl Stonum, Jr. WR: Fans expected a breakout season from the former four-star prospect in 2009, and while he showed he could be an explosive kick returner, Stonum’s performance at receiver (13 catches, 199 yards, one TD) could only be described as a disappointment. While Michigan is very young at outside receiver, they do have a number of talented slots — if Stonum doesn’t display the game-breaking ability expected of him when he came to Ann Arbor, slot receiver Roy Roundtree could see an increased role on the outside, and underclassmen like sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and freshmen Jerald Robinson and Ricardo Miller could also push for playing time. This is likely a make-or-break year for Stonum as a receiver — if he can’t prove he can produce in his third season, he’ll likely have to move aside as the underclassmen get some experience under their belts.
5. Vincent Smith, Soph. RB: This isn’t as much a reflection on Smith as it is the situation at running back — with Smith still recovering from a torn ACL, Michael Shaw (if eligible), Michael Cox, and Fitzgerald Toussaint will battle in fall camp to prove that they deserve to be the guy at running back. Smith is expected to be 100% healthy for the season opener, but it’s impossible to tell how well a running back will bounce back from a major knee injury until he hits the field. Smith will have to show he’s fully back and ready to perform at a high level if he hopes to fend off the talented backs waiting behind him on the depth chart. It’s never fun to see a player lose his job because of an injury, but it’s a part of football (see: Tom Brady/Drew Bledsoe) — either Smith will prove he’s ready to build on a promising freshman season, or somebody else will get a their shot to prove they can start and excel.

That’s all for this week. Make sure to check back on Monday, when I’ll be taking a look at the true freshmen with the best chance to make an early impact in 2010.

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Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low”,  “Guarded”, and “Elevated” threat categories, and today, we move on to the positions that fall under the “High” category. Ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seatbelts.

Outside Receiver: Simply put, Michigan just hasn’t been getting the production it needs out of its outside receivers so far in the Rodriguez era. Some of that blame can probably be placed on the quarterback play, but it’s time for guys like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway to step up, or else be replaced by younger talent. Stonum and Hemingway, your likely starters at outside receiver, combined for just 29 catches and three touchdowns last season.

Stonum, a former four-star with great athletic ability, needs to show that he can adjust to the ball in the air — he often makes what should be simple catches unnecessarily difficult on himself. If he can do that, he could break out this year and begin to live up to his lofty recruiting hype. Hemingway has burst out of the gate the past two season openers only to have his season derailed by injuries and subsequent ineffectiveness. He showed against Western Michigan that he can be a dangerous deep threat, but he’ll have to stay healthy if he wants to hold on to his starting spot.

If Stonum and Hemingway prove ineffective, there are several young players who could see the field in their place. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes is another top-100 level recruit, and he’ll likely be the third wide receiver after playing sparingly as a freshman. Jerald Robinson, Ricardo Miller, and Jeremy Jackson all enrolled early in preparation for their true freshman seasons — Robinson appears most likely to be an immediate contributor, though Miller probably has the highest ceiling and Jackson the best hands of the trio. There is also the chance that Roy Roundtree moves between the slot and outside — I’d prefer for him to work out of the slot, where he seems most effective, but if the starters aren’t producing he may be needed to shore up the position, especially with the depth at slot.

If Michigan hopes to take its offense to the next level, they will have to get more production from their outside receivers. Unfortunately, the depth behind the prospective starters is very young, and the starters have yet to prove they can consistently make plays at the collegiate level. This position is probably the biggest question mark the offense has, and could be the difference between Michigan boasting a juggernaut offense and struggling to consistently move the ball.

Linebacker: The picture to your right pretty much sums up Michigan’s linebacker play from last season — Obi Ezeh is on the ground, having been taken out of the play, and Jonas Mouton appears to have lost contain as the back breaks into the open field. Usually, a team would be very comfortable with returning two senior starters (and multi-year starters at that) at linebacker, but the lack of progression from Ezeh and the apparent regression from Mouton has left Wolverine fans very concerned with the heart of their defense.

The good news is that, despite a slight scheme change, Michigan will finally have the same man at defensive coordinator for two years in a row, and with Greg Robinson personally handling the inside linebackers, there should be improvement from the position. How much the linebackers improve will depend. Can Ezeh hold off redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens in the middle? If he does, can he show greater aggressiveness on the field? Can Mouton return to the form he showed in the latter half of 2008? There are a lot of questions here, and few answers will be given until the team hits the field in the fall.

The aforementioned Demens appears to be the most likely candidate to supplant the incumbent starters if one proved ineffective, although J.B. Fitzgerald actually saw more playing time last year when Ezeh was benched, and he could very well start if given the opportunity. Former walk-on Kevin Leach also saw action last year, but wasn’t particularly effective when he played. Redshirt freshman Isaiah Bell provides depth, but he’ll likely need a year or two of learning the position after coming to Ann Arbor as a safety.

With a strong front four and a shaky secondary, Michigan’s defense will need the linebackers to elevate their level of play in 2010. As fifth-year seniors, Ezeh and Mouton should be up to the task, but you could have said the same thing about them last year. Their experience keeps me from placing the linebackers in the “Severe” category, but they will need to step up their play on the field in a big way, or the defense could be spinning its wheels instead of moving forward from last season’s debacle.

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Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be examining the foundation for the 2010 Michigan Wolverines: the five recruiting classes, from 2006 to 2010, that comprise the team. So far, I’ve examined the class of 2006 and the class of 2007. Today, I move on to this year’s juniors and redshirt sophomores from the class of 2008:

Class of 2008 (Sorted by Rivals.com Ranking):

Who’s Left?

16 of the 25 prospects from the 2008 class still remain in Ann Arbor, and while many of the blue-chip players from the class are gone, there are several solid contributors remaining: Darryl Stonum, Michael Shaw, Kevin Koger, Mike Martin, Roy Roundtree, Martavious Odoms, J.T. Floyd, and Patrick Omameh have all seen starts for the Wolverines, and players like J.B. Fitzgerald, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, Kenny Demens, and Mike Cox are either pushing for playing time or in line to compete for a starting spot down the road.

Martin, Odoms, and Roundtree have all shown all-conference potential so far in their careers, and Omameh could soon join them on that list after locking down a starting guard spot as a redshirt freshman last season. Given the sheer depth of talent in this class, however, it’s hard not to be somewhat disappointed in the production they have given so far. A lot of the reason for that has to do with…

Who’s Gone?

While the class of 2008, at least percentage-wise, hasn’t seen the sheer attrition of the previous class (2007 has just 11 of the 20 recruits remaining), the losses here have been both high-profile and critical to the performance of the team. Marcus Witherspoon and Taylor Hill, two four-star linebacker recruits, never qualified and moved on to other schools before their freshman year, leaving Michigan very thin at a critical position, something from which they’re still feeling the effects. Sam McGuffie and Boubacar Cissoko were both extremely talented players who, for different reasons, were not able to play out their careers at Michigan despite earning starting roles early in their careers. Dann O’Neill, Kurt Wermers, and Justin Feagin were all potential contributors who transferred (O’Neill and Wermers) or were booted for major legal issues (Feagin). And does anybody else think that Brandon Smith would have been perfect for one of the box safety positions in the 3-3-5? Unfortunately, we won’t find out, as he transferred as well.

The Upshot:

This is the third consecutive class that didn’t come close to living up to its lofty ranking, at least so far. Obviously, with 2-3 years of eligibility remaining, there is still a lot of time for this class to change that perception, especially with talents like Martin, Roundtree, Odoms, and Omameh (just to name a few) still on the roster. Regardless of future potential, however, this class has still played a large role in the disappointment of the last couple seasons — it’s tough to blame a group of true freshmen for 2008′s 3-9 season, but a class this deep should have had more guys ready to make major contributions as sophomores last season, when the team was very short on upperclassmen. The next couple seasons will be what truly cements the legacy of this class, but they will have to make great strides as a team to be thought of as anything but a disappointment, especially if they get lumped in with the previous two classes.

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With spring practice kicking off this week, I went over the players with the most to gain from a good spring performance yesterday. Today, I take a look at the flip side of that coin: the players who, for one reason or another, will be fighting to hold on their role with this team. Here are the players who are at risk of seeing a diminished role if they don’t come through with a big spring performance:

1. Obi Ezeh, RS Sr. LB: Ezeh is listed first for a reason — no other established starter has come under as much fire as Ezeh because of a lack of performance, and the criticism that has followed Ezeh for the past couple years hasn’t been entirely undeserved. Simply put, this team expected a lot more from Ezeh in 2009, when he was entering his third year starting in the middle, and his disappointing season has opened the door for somebody like J.B. Fitzgerald to ascend to a starting role. By all accounts, Ezeh is a great person and tremendous leader on and off the field, but he will have to bring his on-field performance up to a higher standard if he doesn’t want to be unseated by the fall.
2. Kelvin Grady, RS Jr. Slot: Ironically enough, it was a big-time spring performance that earned Grady a big role to start out the 2009 season, but issues with route-running, knowledge of the offense, and the emergence of Roy Roundtree combined to decrease Grady’s playing time by the end of the season. Now Grady is fighting for playing time with a host of talented youngsters — including Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, and incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and D.J. Williamson — while Roundtree and Martavious Odoms eat up the lion’s share of the playing time in the slot. If Grady doesn’t make big strides with his football IQ (which is very possible — we forget he was playing basketball a little over a year ago), he could be caught in a logjam and surpassed by younger players.
3. Kevin Koger, Jr. TE: Koger was another player who saw his role diminish as the 2009 season progressed, and now he may be fighting for not only his survival in the starting lineup, but the survival of the tight end position under Rich Rodriguez. Unlike the other players listed here, Koger isn’t facing a ton of competition from his own position group — Martell Webb and Brandon Moore are the only other tight ends on the roster, and neither has shown enough to make me think they’ll unseat Koger — but instead he has to convince the coaches that it’s worth keeping a tight end on the field instead of moving to more four- and five-receiver sets. For Koger, the issue is simple: catch the ball, and it will be hard to keep such a big (6-4, 251 lbs.), skilled talent off the field. If he can’t cure his issues with dropping the ball, however, we could see Roundtree and Odoms both lining up as starters in the fall.
4. Michael Shaw, Jr. RB: It doesn’t seem like that long ago that Shaw was the “next big thing” at running back, but now he finds himself entering his junior season surrounded by questions about his durability and without much of a track record to show that he’s a better option than the plethora of younger backs on the roster. Shaw has to show that he can stay healthy this spring, or the coaching staff may never be willing to trust him as a back who can handle more than 10-15 touches a game. With Vincent Smith slated to return healthy in the fall, Michael Cox and Fitzgerald Toussaint both looking to grab starter’s touches, and two true freshmen already enrolled (Austin White and Stephen Hopkins), Shaw will have to prove that he can be the explosive, home-run threat that everyone expected him to be when he came to Ann Arbor as a freshman. Otherwise, he could find himself fighting an uphill battle against a host of younger players.
5. Darryl Stonum, Jr. WR: Michigan has received very disappointing production from its outside receivers under Rich Rodriguez, and part of the blame could certainly fall on Stonum, who hasn’t lived up to his blue-chip billing in his first two seasons despite getting ample opportunity to show off his talent. Even though Stonum will get the first crack to retain his starting spot, he will have to fend off competition from sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and early enrollees Ricardo Miller, Jeremy Jackson, and Jerald Robinson in the spring and fall. It’s time for Stonum to start producing like a top-100 high school prospect, and if he can’t do that, Michigan has several players waiting in the wings to prove that they can.

That’s all for this week. Enjoy the (already incredible) opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.

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• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Offense

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).

Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.

[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]

At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.

Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.

Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.

Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen.  I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.

Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.

Similar Posts:

• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring
• Position Threat Levels: Low
• A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Offense

There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

Similar Posts:

• Position Preview: Tight End
• 2010 Official Depth Chart Breakdown: Offense
• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense
• Five Players With the Most to Lose in Spring Practice
• Position Threat Levels: Low