After the last two seasons, the counterpart to my “Five Hopeful Predictions” post should come rather easily — I could probably pick five things that will go horribly wrong with the secondary alone and do pretty well for myself. That would be too easy, however, so I’ll do my best to keep the focus on the team as a whole while making my five pessimistic predictions for the 2010 season (if you’re curious, here is last year’s version — I went 2/5, for the record):
The team finishes 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense — Last season, the Wolverines finished 70th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and that was with Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk manning the secondary. This year’s secondary features no player of Warren’s talent or Woolfolk’s experience, and the results likely won’t be pretty. The good news? It is possible to field a decent team with a horrific secondary: last year, Cal (8-5), Stanford (8-5), and Florida State (7-6 against a very tough schedule) all finished 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense. Those are outliers among some awful squads, but they’re also the schools with overall talent most comparable to Michigan’s at that point on the list. Teams will throw on Michigan, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win. It does help, though, and the pass defense will likely cost the team some games in 2010.
Michigan’s defense records 20 or fewer sacks — Despite the presence of Brandon Graham and his 10.5 sacks, Michigan finished just 68th in the country with 22.0 team sacks in 2009. Graham is off to the NFL, and while the defensive line should still be the strength of the Wolverine defense, I don’t see how the team will fully replace Graham’s tremendous production while also trying to mask the deficiencies in the back seven. I still expect Craig Roh to have a big season, and Ryan Van Bergen is a very solid defensive end, but this team could have a tough time getting to the quarterback if for no other reason than that the secondary may not be able to slow down the passing game enough to give the pass rush a chance.
No player breaks the 1,000-yard rushing mark – With the coaching staff talking about rotating 3-4 players at running back, and the quarterback competition far from resolved, it’s tough to see anyone becoming the first Wolverine in the Rich Rodriguez era to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau. The player with the best chance to prove me wrong may very well be Denard Robinson, who could threaten to put up Pat White-level numbers if he emerges as the clear number one quarterback, but that’s a very big “if” with Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner vying for playing time. While the Wolverines have several talented running backs, it doesn’t appear that anyone has emerged as a workhorse back — sophomore Vincent Smith, who is fresh off reconstructive knee surgery, sits atop the depth chart with oft-injured junior Michael Shaw, who may not even be academically qualified to play. Michigan should have a productive rushing offense, but it will likely be by committee, and not with a star feature back.
Michigan converts less than 65% of their field goals – I predicted this last year, and senior walk-on Jason Olesnavage managed to come through and prove me wrong, hitting 11-of-15 field goals for a 73.3% conversion rate. Once again, questions surround Michigan’s kicking game, however, and with Olesnavage gone redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons or redshirt freshman walk-on Seth Broekhuizen — currently listed as co-starters on the official depth chart — will have to step up. So far, the kickers have reportedly been inconsistent throughout the spring and fall, and I expect similar results as the season kicks off on Saturday. With no upperclassmen kicker — walk-on or otherwise — ready to take over the job, we might witness some major growing pains in the kicking game this year.
The team loses at least two of the three rivalry games – Those games, of course, being Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. This may seem like a lack of progress after Michigan took down Notre Dame last season and came close to pulling an epic comeback in East Lansing, but that may be deceiving — both of those teams should be improved this season, and the Buckeyes appear to be bona-fide national title contenders. Michigan’s best chance at a rivalry victory will be at home against the Spartans, but road contests in South Bend and Columbus will be very daunting for a team so green on defense.
Let’s all hope I go 0/5 on these predictions, as my love for the team far outweighs any pride I have in my prognosticating ability. Starting tomorrow, the season preview content begins to wrap up with Part I of my predictions for each game.
A couple weeks before last season, I threw out five positive predictions for the Wolverines. If you’re wondering how last season measured up to expectations, check out the post — none of the five came true (although Tate Forcier came close to completing the 60% of his passes I expected him to, finishing with a 58.7% completion percentage) and Michigan finished 5-7. This year, I’m throwing caution to the wind and trying my hand at this “optimism” thing one more time; here are five hopeful predictions for the 2010 season:
Denard Robinson averages 250 yards of total offense –There’s no question Denard Robinson is a special athlete, and if his passing has really progressed as advertised, he could put up some big numbers this season. 250 yards of total offense per game isn’t an outlandish number for a dual-threat quarterback — in 2009, that number would be good for 33rd in the country, and many of the players near the top of the list aren’t household names, but quarterbacks who can eat up yards on the ground. As a sophomore, Pat White averaged 261.3 yards per game, and while I don’t expect Robinson to match White’s production, I think he’ll come close, and close enough to make the Michigan offense very dangerous.
Mark Moundros totals 70 tackles – That’s right, redshirt senior fullback-turned-linebacker walk-on Mark Moundros, who is currently in a battle with redshirt senior Obi Ezeh to start at middle linebacker, will have at least 70 tackles, the exact figure Ezeh turned in last year. All indications point to Moundros as the probable starter come Saturday, and he had displayed solid tackling ability and a nose for the football since moving from fullback in the spring. It appears that Greg Robinson’s defense will have the middle linebackers attacking the line downhill, which should play to Moundros’s strengths. I don’t expect him to be a world-beater, or even an all-conference caliber player, but anything better than “decidedly below-average” will be a step in the right direction after 2009.
Carvin Johnson earns Freshman All-America honors – This doesn’t sound quite as outlandish as it appears in print, as Jordan Kovacs was a College Football News second-team Freshman All-American last year, but it still means Johnson will be a solid contributor to this year’s defense. The Louisiana native appears tailor-made for the spur position, which is essentially Stevie Brown’s linebacker/safety hybrid spot, as he is a very good tackler who drew rave reviews in his senior season after flying under the radar as a recruit. Johnson won’t be asked to do too much in coverage, but when he does, he shouldn’t be overmatched — he practiced some at cornerback this fall and recorded seven interceptions en route to being named first-team all-state in Louisiana’s largest division last year. Like any true freshman thrust into a starting role, there will be some bumps in the road, but I expect Johnson will be a pleasant surprise for the Wolverines in 2010.
A Michigan receiver breaks 50 receptions – In Rich Rodriguez’s first two seasons at Michigan, the production from the wideouts has been disappointing — Roy Roundtree led the team with 32 catches last season after Martavious Odoms paced the team with 49 in 2008. With Roundtree, Odoms, and Darryl Stonum all poised for big seasons, and Michigan’s quarterback situation looking like the best it has been since Chad Henne graduated, I expect at least one receiver to crack 50 receptions in a breakout season. The safe bet is for Roundtree to eclipse that mark while working from the slot, but don’t count out Odoms, a great possession receiver who is now working on the outside — he could see a lot of screens and quick passes that could pad his stats significantly.
Rich Rodriguez keeps his job – I’m not even necessarily predicting a bowl appearance, not with the defense in the shape it’s in, but I do think this team will show enough progression to allow Dave Brandon to keep Rich Rodriguez around for 2011. Rodriguez has seemingly caught every tough break imaginable in his two-plus years in Ann Arbor, and while this team still has a ways to go before they win like the Michigan of old, they’re certainly moving in the right direction. The offense should begin to resemble Rodriguez’s outstanding West Virginia units, and there is plenty of young talent across the board. I think this team will look just good enough for Brandon to give Rodriguez a chance to lead what should be an experienced and talented 2011 team, which only seems right, as Rodriguez has finally built the foundation for what should be a Big Ten contender.
Let’s all hope that these predictions hold up much better than last year’s, and I’ll have the flip side to this coin — my five “less hopeful” predictions — coming up soon.
Michigan released its official depth chart today for the UConn game, and there are a few surprises on the two-deep for Saturday. The entire depth chart can be found at the Football Depth Chart page. Let’s start by breaking down the offense:
No surprise at quarterback, as Rich Rodriguez has said we won’t know who the starter is until kickoff; for the second straight season, we get three players all tied at the top. Devin Gardner, in Rodriguez’s words, will “probably not” redshirt this season — it looks like he has done enough in the coaches’ eyes to see the field this season and help the team. I still expect Denard Robinson to be the starter on Saturday, but we’ll probably see all three quarterbacks at some point.
Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw head up what should be a rotation of at least 3-4 running backs. Note that Teric Jones, who was recruited at running back but played in the secondary for the past year, is back at his natural position.
This is where things get a little interesting. Your starting wideouts are Darryl Stonum/Junior Hemingway and Martavious Odoms on the outside and Roy Roundtree/Kelvin Grady in the slot. This is probably a product of the depth and talent at slot receiver, especially with Grady having a breakout fall camp, and Rich Rodriguez’s subsequent attempt to get the best players on the field. The only true freshman on the depth chart, interestingly, is Jeremy Jackson — I suspect this is because he has by far the best hands out of the group, and he should be a reliable possession receiver if the team needs to use him.
The depth chart at tight ends looks exactly the same as it did last year. It will be very interesting to see how much this position factors into the offense with all the talent at receiver.
It appears that the veterans have held off the talented youngsters at tackle, as redshirt junior Mark Huyge and senior Perry Dorrestein get the nod at tackle over redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield, at least for now. They will be joined by what should be a very good interior line in left guard Stephen Schilling, center David Molk, and right guard Patrick Omameh. The depth across the board is very strong, and this should be by far the best offensive line Rich Rodriguez has had at Michigan.
I’ll have a breakdown of the defense either later today or tomorrow afternoon, and my game previews for the season will begin on Wednesday as we rapidly approach game day in Ann Arbor.
Thanks to a generous friend with an extra ticket, I was able to attend Michigan’s scrimmage today. No pictures or video were allowed in the stadium, and I won’t comment on specific schemes or formations, but here are a few player-specific notes from my view in the box seats — please keep in mind that these are one person’s observations of one scrimmage from high up in the stadium:
Unless something crazy happens between now and September 4, Denard Robinson is your clear starter at quarterback. The quarterbacks weren’t live today, but Robinson still managed to carve up the second-team defense (running the first-team offense, of course) with his legs and his arm. His made good decisions with the ball and his passes were on the money, and he took a QB draw 40+ yards to the house — only Denard makes that play, and he made it look easy.
Devin Gardner, running mostly with the twos, looked at times like a seasoned veteran, but he had a couple throws — including an ugly interception to Marvin Robinson — that reminded everyone he is just a freshman. His natural ability could lead to him seeing the field this year, but I think it’s safe to say he’s probably a year away from really pushing for the starting job. Really like his poise in the pocked and running ability, however, and it would have been interesting to see what he could have done if the quarterbacks were live. Tate Forcier started with the threes but saw snaps with the ones and twos as well — he looked solid throwing the ball, but made a couple poor reads on zone running plays.
It was great to see Vincent Smith out there running with the first-team offense, and he looks 100% healthy — the coaching staff even put him back to return a kickoff, which has to be a good sign about both Smith’s and the coaching staff’s confidence in his knee being back to normal. He did fumble after getting cracked on a reception (didn’t see who made the hit, but it was a good one). The most impressive back, however, may have been Stephen Hopkins, who has dropped some weight since the spring and looked much quicker while still running through tackles. I didn’t think he’d be more than a situational back this fall, but after seeing him today I think he has a real shot at not only being in the rotation, but starting.
Kelvin Grady had a very impressive day, making some great catches on seam routes from the slot, getting a lot of yards after the catch on screen plays, and scoring a touchdown on an end-around. He should have an impact this fall from a number of positions on the field. On the flip side of that coin, Terrence Robinson struggled with drops all day — I’d be surprised if he sees much time at receiver or punt returner if those issues continue. Jerald Robinson showed the most promise of the freshmen wideouts, and Je’Ron Stokes had a couple nice catches as well.
On defense, I was most impressed with the play of Mark Moundros, who showed good instincts in the run game and had a couple really nice hits — he was playing alongside Obi Ezeh with the ones, with Jonas Mouton sitting out in a green jersey. Interestingly, it was Moundros playing in the middle with Ezeh at WLB. Still not sure how I feel about a converted fullback sliding into the starting lineup, but if Moundros beats out Ezeh at MLB, it’s because he earned it. Jibreel Black also made some nice plays — he could be a guy who contributes right away as a pass rusher. Also, his physical resemblance to Brandon Graham when he’s in a uniform and pads is eerie.
J.T. Floyd and James Rogers were the cornerbacks on the first-team defense. Floyd looked solid, but Rogers got picked on a couple times and got hit with a pass interference flag after getting beat deep by Jerald Robinson. The secondary in general looked very suspect — they were playing a lot of soft zones and gave up too much underneath and up the middle. The good news is they didn’t give up any bombs if you exclude the flag on Rogers, but the offense moved the ball pretty easily through the air.
From the few kicks we were able to see, Brendan Gibbons looked like the best kicker, but he still has to get more consistent from inside 40 yards — just can’t afford to miss those kicks. Will Hagerup had an up-and-down day punting the ball — had a couple that traveled around 50 yards in the air, but also had some 30-yard kicks. The kicking game could be an adventure this season.
One last note: Take this for what it’s worth, but I didn’t see Austin White out there in uniform today, and he definitely didn’t see any playing time. Not sure what his status is with the team, and I’ll have updates when there’s some news to report there.
For more, make sure to follow me on Twitter, where I posted my initial thoughts on the scrimmage, and make sure to check back to the blog for more season preview content as we get closer to kickoff. Your thoughts and questions, as always, are welcome in the comments.
As I write this, I can hear the Michigan Drumline practicing just a block away in front of Revelli Hall, another sign that football is just around the corner. Despite being less than three weeks away from kicking off against UConn, Michigan still has an unresolved quarterback situation, a phenomenon Wolverine fans have become accustomed to in the Rich Rodriguez era. Today, the focus is on the quarterbacks in the first of my position previews for the 2010 season:
Returning Player Stats:
The Projected Starter: There is still a long way to go before quarterback competition is resolved, but since his outstanding performance in the spring it has become clear that this job is now sophomore Denard Robinson’s to lose. Robinson’s rapid improvement as a passer after completing just 14 of 31 pass attempts in 2009 has allowed him to leapfrog incumbent starter Tate Forcier, but it’s his running ability that has really allowed him to separate himself from the pack. Robinson has the potential to be a Pat White-type weapon if he can prove he is a threat as a passer, and his game-breaking speed makes him the ideal player to run Rich Rodriguez’s zone read offense. He has the potential to be a truly special player, but Michigan fans won’t be completely at ease with “Shoelace” taking first-team snaps until he can show his practice improvements will translate to the big stage. With a full year at Michigan under his belt, I expect Robinson will be a completely different player — and a major contributor — in 2010.
The Competition: Tate Forcier started all 12 games as a true freshman last fall, and despite battling a shoulder injury for much of the season his final numbers compared favorably with other high-profile true freshmen starters. After an inconsistent spring and several missed summer workouts, however, Forcier will have to prove he is dedicated enough to earn the trust of his teammates and improve upon a rocky finish to 2009. Forcier is by far the most polished passer on the roster, but he must take care of the ball better or he will cede his starting job to a player with a higher athletic ceiling — Forcier may be nimble, but his athleticism isn’t in the same league as Robinson’s or freshman Devin Gardner’s. His leadership and mental makeup will be tested heavily this fall, especially if he can’t win the starting job in fall camp, and how he responds will play a big part in how his career plays out in Ann Arbor.
The Dark Horse: Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the class of 2010, enters his freshman season at Michigan with a boatload of hype after a stellar high school career at nearby Inkster. Although many hoped that Gardner would redshirt this fall to learn the offense and put an extra year of eligibility between himself and the two sophomores, it appears the early enrollee is very much in the mix to earn playing time this year. Gardner has earned praise for his hard work and dedication in the spring and summer, and while his mechanics may still need work, he is a very gifted athlete who also put up great passing numbers at the prep level — if Gardner sees the field this fall, it will be because he is a true dual-threat quarterback. The only thing holding Gardner back may be his age, as the coaching staff may be hesitant to start another freshman in a make-or-break year for the team. The focus has been on Forcier and Robinson, but Gardner may very well have the most talent of any Wolverine quarterback, and he could give the staff no choice but to play him if he can pick up the playbook quickly.
Outlook: With three very viable candidates to start this fall, the competition to see snaps at QB will be fierce, and that should only raise the level of play Michigan gets out of the position in 2010. With a talented and experienced offensive line and a bevy of weapons at the skill positions, whoever starts at quarterback should have no problem putting points on the board. If the team can limit the mental errors that led to an ugly -12 turnover margin in 2009, Michigan should be in very good shape at the position this year and in the future — the only question is who will be the man to lead the team come September. My guess is Robinson, but anything can happen over the next few weeks.
Heading into spring practice, I took a look at the five players with the most to gain — as well as the five with the most to lose — based on their performance in spring ball. With fall practices kicking off on Monday, I thought I’d update each list to see which players have the most on the line as we approach the beginning of the 2010 season. Today, the focus is on the returning players who stand to gain the most from a strong fall camp performance:
Denard Robinson, Soph. QB: Robinson appears to have the inside track to the starting quarterback job after showing exponential improvement in the spring, but the race with Tate Forcier is far from over. It appears Robinson is the choice among his teammates, however, and if he continues to show the work ethic that helped him pass Forcier in the spring he should be the man taking the first Michigan snap in the newly-renovated Big House. Robinson must prove that he can be a consistent and reliable passer — something we can’t completely judge until the season starts — but if he makes enough progress in that regard, his prodigious athletic talents should make him the number one option at quarterback.
Will Campbell, Soph. DT: After spending his freshman year working his way into shape and learning how to play with proper technique, the former five-star recruit will see the field more this fall — the only question is, how much more? Senior Renaldo Sagesse has been impressive in practices and could very well start next to Mike Martin, but no one on the defensive line has more talent than Big Will. If he can learn how to best take advantage of his massive size and quickness, Campbell could quickly become a force in the middle of the defensive line and force defenses to carefully consider whether to double-team him or Martin. It’s too early to say that Campbell has to deliver on his sky-high recruiting expectations, but I think it would be a great sign for the team if he carves out a big role on this year’s defense.
Kenny Demens, RS Soph. LB: Demens could just as easily have landed on tomorrow’s list, but with Obi Ezeh’s starting middle linebacker spot still very much up for grabs, a good fall camp could quickly turn Demens from special teamer to starter. The former four-star prospect possesses more than enough athletic ability to be an impact player (just check out the football team’s performance from Mock Rock 2009, featuring Demens and Brandon Graham doing effortless standing back-flips), and as a redshirt sophomore Demens should be comfortable with the defensive playbook — now, it’s time to see if he can really play. Unseating a three-year starter is no easy task, but Demens has the talent to do so.
Taylor Lewan, RS Fr. OT: Michigan returns two veteran players (RS Jr. Mark Huyge and Sr. Perry Dorrestein) at offensive tackle with starting experience, but the player everyone is raving about is Lewan, whose combination of size (6-8, 283 lbs.), talent, and a nasty streak has drawn comparisons to Jake Long. If Lewan can prove he has added enough size and strength to play in the Big Ten trenches, I’d be very surprised if he can’t earn a starting spot at left tackle. While it’s normally disconcerting to have a freshman starting at a critical O-line spot, if Lewan can unseat one of the seniors (likely Dorrestein) we could see him take a very similar career path to Long — a lofty comparison indeed, but the similarities between the two are impossible to overlook.
Fitzgerald Toussaint, RS Fr. RB: With Vincent Smith still recovering from a torn ACL and Michael Shaw speculated to be on the edge of ineligibility, there’s a big opening for a running back to step and earn himself carries. Redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will battle Toussaint for snaps in fall camp, but Cox is in his third season under Rodriguez and has had difficulties absorbing the playbook, something which could keep him off the field if the coaches don’t trust him. Toussaint is a four-star recruit who put up absurd numbers in high school, and at 5-10, 199 pounds he has the size and frame to be an every-down back. If Toussaint can display the running ability he showed at the prep level (audio NSFW), he could take carries away from Smith and Shaw even if both are ready to play in the opener.
Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the returning players with the most to lose in fall camp, and on Monday the focus will turn to the true freshmen who could have an immediate impact in 2010.
Troy Woolfolk has proven to be a very interesting character over the past couple years — he even admits to having a split personality named “T-Wolf” — and yesterday, well, one of his personalities decided to keep it very, very real:
“Denard has been out there through the thick and thin and been out there all the time regardless if he’s hurting,” Woolfolk said. “And Tate, he tries to come out, but he’s not as consistent as Denard is. And that’s allowed Denard to jump a little bit ahead of Tate and I think that Tate’s going to have to do a lot of work to catch back up to Denard in camp this year.”
…
“I personally have a lack of respect for [players who don't show up to voluntary workouts],” Woolfolk said. “The outlook on them is kind of diseased. Like you don’t want to be hanging around those people because they have bad work ethic. But at the same time, it’s my role to try to persuade them to come out more.”
According to Woolfolk, Forcier hasn’t shown up to as many workouts as he and the other seniors feel he should have, and Woolfolk said it’s hurting his teammates’ perception of their signal caller.
“The only reason he’s not really labeled as diseased is because of the way he was able to carry the team last year before we started losing. People still trust him a little bit, but he’s starting to lose that trust.”
It is worth noting here that Woolfolk later released this statement via his Twitter page (which is protected; quote via Dr. Saturday): “A story was written about me putting Tate in a negative aspect. This was phrased wrongly and is not the truth. I think Tate is a great player.” While I believe Woolfolk was being truthful (and a good teammate) in his retraction, it’s tough to ignore the words that came out of his mouth at media day, especially when those words fall in line with long-standing message board rumblings that Forcier has not been 100% dedicated since the end of last season.
The question stands, then: what should we take out of Woolfolk’s statement, and how concerned should we be about the quarterback situation? First, the good news we can take out of this:
Although most of the fallout from Woolfolk’s quotes center around Forcier, this does reflect very well upon Denard Robinson. We all got to see the huge strides Shoelace has made since last season during his stellar performance in the spring game, and it is clear that he is doing everything within his power to win the starting job and be the best player he can be for Michigan. That effort is not lost on his teammates, and the sophomore has now carved out a leadership role that a good team needs from their field general. Just check out this quote from senior guard Stephen Schilling: “He’s definitely taken on some leadership,” fifth-year senior offensive lineman Steve Schilling said. “He’s there every day working hard. He’s been a guy that doesn’t complain. He makes you want to play for him, and he has those qualities to be a special leader and a special quarterback.” That’s a great sign for not just Robinson, but the whole team.
Woolfolk’s Twitter retraction aside, there’s no way that these words escaped the ear of Tate Forcier, and the good news is it’s not too late for Forcier to take them to heart and do his best to regain his teammates’ trust (as well as improve as a player) — remember, he’s still only a sophomore. If anything can light a fire under a player, it’s getting publicly called out by a teammate, and how Forcier reacts to this situation will tell us a lot about his ability to lead a team. If he starts putting in the same effort as Robinson and earns his way back onto the field, we will probably be able to look back on this as a turning point in Forcier’s career.
I love seeing this type of brutal honesty from a senior leader. Yes, Woolfolk probably went further than he intended while on the record, but he is speaking from the best interests of the team. If the coaching staff is having difficultly reaching Forcier and getting him on the practice field and in the film room, it’s up to his teammates to see if they can provide some motivation. Woolfolk stepped up here, and it’s great to see a senior on a young defense willing to take on a leadership role, especially now that Brandon Graham is in the NFL.
The bad news? No need for bullet points for that: in a year where the program is in “win-or-bust” mode, and with a full-blown quarterback competition on our hands, it is very disconcerting to hear that the returning starter at the most important position on the field is skipping workouts and losing the trust of his team. There’s no way to sugar-coat the situation — even if Robinson was going to win the starting job regardless of Forcier’s practice efforts (and I’m not saying that’s necessarily true), Forcier would still potentially be one injury or poor performance away from seeing the field, and when he’s on the field Michigan needs him to be as prepared as possible. Skipping summer workouts and losing the trust of the team isn’t going to get that done.
I doubt we’ll hear Forcier (or anyone else on the team) directly address Woolfolk’s quotes, but come fall we’ll have a pretty good idea about who put in the work necessary to lead this team on offense. Judging from what Woolfolk said, we may already have the answer.
Well, this story is getting pretty old, but a third 2010 Michigan recruit has failed to qualify for the fall. Quarterback Conelius Jones will enroll at Fork Union Military Academy after failing to achieve a qualifying SAT score, according to the Detroit News (via a report from GoBlueWolverine.com):
Athlete/quarterback Conelius Jones, a member of Michigan’s 2010 recruiting class, will not enroll at the school this fall, according to a report.
Freddy Brown, Jones’ coach at Spartanburg (S.C.) High School, told GoBlueWolverine.com on Monday that Jones was denied admission due to his score on a standardized college entrance exam.
Brown said Jones will attend Fork Union Military Academy in the fall and will try to enroll at Michigan in the winter semester.
Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) was a three-star recruit who also received offers from Duke, Stanford, Syrause and Wake Forest, among other schools, according to Scout.com.
Although Michigan is certainly set at quarterback for this season with Denard Robinson, Tate Forcier, and Devin Gardner, Jones was expected to help provide depth down the road, especially if the team decided to use Robinson at another position (although that seems unlikely after Shoelace’s outstanding spring). Expect Michigan to make a strong push for 2011 quarterback Kevin Sousa, who has picked up an offer and appears to be the Wolverines’ most realistic option at QB in his class.
As mentioned above, Jones is the third 2010 recruit who has not been admitted to Michigan, along with defensive back Demar Dorsey and linebacker Antonio Kinard. Hopefully, he can make the most of his semester at Fork Union and join the team this winter.
Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low” and “Guarded” threat categories, and Today, we move on to the positions that fall under the “Elevated” category:
Quarterback: One should expect the quarterback play to improve for Michigan regardless of who wins the starting job, if for no other reason than that the Wolverines won’t be rotating two true freshmen at the position in 2010. In the best case scenario, Michigan will have two much-improved options at the most important position on the field, two players who can complement each others skill sets and allow the team to show multiple looks and keep the defense guessing. That, or Tate Forcier becomes the next Drew Brees or Denard Robinson becomes Pat White with a better arm. But that’s dreaming. In the worst case, Forcier plays like he did over the latter half of his freshman season, Robinson still proves ineffective at reading defenses and making accurate throws, and Devin Gardner is forced into duty instead of spending a redshirt year learning the offense.
Right now, it’s anybody’s guess as to what end of the spectrum the quarterback play will be at come fall — I personally think Robinson will have a solid season as the starter, and provide a big-play threat on the ground while still posing enough of a threat to throw that teams can’t just stack eight men in the box. That’s just conjecture, however, and the uncertainty surrounding this position puts it squarely in the “Elevated” category.
Running Back: There are two ways to look at the running back position as we exit the spring season. On the one hand, fans should be worried that the running game looked generally unimpressive in the spring, and no back stepped up and took control of the job in the absence of the injured Vincent Smith. On the other hand, Michigan gets Smith back in the fall, and there are four talented runners also competing for major playing time in Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins — out of those five guys, Michigan should be able to find at least one effective running back, right?
At this point, I’d say Smith is your likely opening-day starter, given his performance from last season and the lack of an outstanding spring from the other backs. There will be lots of other options, however. Shaw is the most experienced back in the group, and if he can stay healthy, he could be the type of home-run threat Carlos Brown was on his good (read: healthy) days at Michigan. Cox may be the best all-around athlete of the backs, and if he can get the mental part of the game down, his physical tools will make it hard to keep him off the field. Toussaint came in as a freshman last fall with a lot of hype after putting up ridiculous numbers in high school — at his best, he can be a powerful runner with breakaway speed. Finally, Hopkins will almost certainly see the field as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist, and if he can prove he can grind out four or five yards from anywhere on the field, that role could grow larger.
The tailback position is much like quarterback right now for Rich Rodriguez: he has options, and talented ones, but the team needs one guy (or two) to step up and prove he can be a game-changer. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until the fall to see if we have one.
Tight End: Early on last season, it looked like this position would be a very productive one. Then, Kevin Koger developed a case of the dropsies, as did backup Martell Webb, and the tight ends were marginalized in the offense. Both players return, as does former four-star recruit Brandon Moore, but the Wolverines have no other scholarship tight ends on the roster — not exactly a sign that the position will be deployed heavily in Rich Rodriguez’s offense, especially with the mass quantities of slot receivers fighting for playing time.
There is a lot of talent here, however, and if Koger gets a fair shot at ample playing time he could be a big factor in the passing game. Yes, he had a few bad drops last year, but he is also capable of doing things like this:
Early last season, Michigan utilized Koger on a lot of drag routes on zone read fakes, and those proved very effective when teams keyed on the run. I was a bit surprised to see Rodriguez and Co. move away from that strategy as the season went on, and would like to see the tight ends used more — I think Koger has the talent to be a real impact player and a reliable safety valve for whoever starts at quarterback. Two things must happen for that to come to fruition, however: Koger has to catch the easy passes, and the team has to commit to utilizing the tight ends. If those two things happen, this position could be a real strength for the Wolverines.
Punter: If you watched the special teams portion of the spring game, you witnessed one of the most horrific punting exhibitions in collegiate football history (OK, that may be slight hyperbole, but it was bad). Michigan will certainly miss the departed Zoltan Mesko, Space Emperor of Space, and clearly nobody on the spring roster is ready to hit the field in the fall — in fact, if Michigan had to choose a punter from the guys on campus now, Tate Forcier would likely be playing double-duty.
The good news is this: Rich Rodriguez secured a commitment from Will Hagerup (left), Rivals.com’s #3 kicker in the country, who punted in the Army All-American Bowl. There is little doubt that Hagerup will be the starting punter from the moment he arrives in Ann Arbor — the special teams performance at the spring game dictates that much. The question will be if Hagerup is ready to perform at the collegiate level. Fortunately, there isn’t any difference between punting a football in a high school game and punting in the Super Bowl — the changes are in the personnel around you, and how dangerous the guy is fielding the punt. Unless Hagerup forgot how to punt a football, he should be fine stepping in and becoming a serviceable freshman punter with good potential. If he gets hurt, however, all bets are off. Take care of that leg, Will — no Michigan fan wants to see Forcier left exposed as the opposition brings heavy heat to block a punt, but from what we have seen of the guys on the roster, he is the only viable option if Hagerup were to go down.
Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be examining the foundation for the 2010 Michigan Wolverines: the five recruiting classes, from 2006 to 2010, that comprise the team. So far, I’ve examined the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. Today, I move on to this year’s sophomores and redshirt freshmen from the class of 2009:
Class of 2009 (Sorted by Rivals.com Rating):
The Upshot:
I’ve been doing “Who’s Left” and “Who’s Gone” for the last few classes, but in this case that seems unnecessary. So far the 2009 class has had just one loss: Adrian Witty, who couldn’t get academically qualified. So, let’s go straight to the analysis.
It goes without saying that it is far too early to evaluate a class that has all of one collegiate season under their belts, but the class of 2009 has already had a large impact on the field. That impact, of course, starts with the two quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson — both saw the field last year as true freshmen, and both showed flashes of brilliance while experiencing the expected freshman growing pains. Craig Roh stepped onto campus in the fall and immediately took over the starting quick end position, and is making the transition to outside linebacker this year. He looks like an all-conference candidate, and should be a leader on the defense for the next few years. Vincent Smith, surprisingly, was the other true freshman to have a major impact, filling in admirably when Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were injured and putting himself in position to start at tailback in 2010. Will Campbell, Je’Ron Stokes, Vlad Emilien, Brandin Hawthorne, Teric Jones, and Mike Jones all saw the field in some capacity last season as well — Campbell should start at nose tackle this season, and the other five will all battle for starting spots as well.
Several other players from this class will compete for snaps this fall after taking a redshirt year in 2009. Jeremy Gallon looked solid in the spring game and should have an impact in the slot and as a returner. Taylor Lewan has emerged as the leading candidate to take over the left tackle position, despite not playing on the offensive line until his senior year of high school — he could be a very special player with his huge frame and potential. Fitzgerald Toussaint is in the mix in a crowded offensive backfield, and Thomas Gordon has been a spring surprise at one of the strong safety positions in the new 3-3-5 defense — both could conceivably start, though Gordon has a better chance of doing so than Toussaint. Isaiah Bell has bulked up to 237 pounds and is fighting for playing time at linebacker, while Anthony LaLota is now a solid 263 pounds and could be in the rotation along the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Michael Schofield are both battling for playing time on the offensive line, but they’re each probably a year or two away from taking over a starting job. Brendan Gibbons will likely be the starting kicker in the fall, as he is the only scholarship kicker on the roster. Finally, Cameron Gordon has been the breakout player of the spring after moving over to the defense from wide receiver — he appears to have solidified himself as the starter at free safety, and could be the type of ball-hawking, hard-hitting player Michigan has sorely lacked at the position.
The jury is still out on one player in particular: Justin Turner, who has just as much recruiting hype as Will Campbell, didn’t see the field last year after arriving late and out of shape in the fall after struggling to qualify, and this spring has not been able to seize the open cornerback job over J.T. Floyd and James Rogers. Turner looks like he has outgrown the cornerback position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up at safety when this year’s crop of freshmen, which includes several cornerback prospects, hits campus.
Overall, this class has been a very solid one — Forcier, Robinson, and Roh provided early impact, several players will see the field in major roles this fall, and there is great potential for the future in players like Campbell, Lewan, Cameron Gordon, Vincent Smith, and more. After a three-year run of disappointing recruiting classes, the class of 2009 should be the one to lead the turnaround this program desperately needs.
Alex on 
JL on 
Ace Anbender on 
Steve on 
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