Usually, I will go into some football analysis every week, listing the five specific things I want to see in the upcoming game. This week, though, that list is short and simple:
A raucous crowd.
A victory.
A victory.
Any way we can get it, an effing victory.
A smile on RichRod’s face after the game.
That’s it. If the secondary is a disaster, I’ll deal with it. If the passing game is shaky, I’ll deal with it. If the linebackers don’t know what they’re doing, I’ll deal with it. As long as Michigan wins.
I’m officially past the point where I can do any sort of real thinking — MGoBlog luckily has us all covered with an insanely exhaustive season and game preview. All I can think about is two flyovers and Brock Mealer and record-breaking attendance figures and touching the banner and a Michigan football game in the newly-renovated Big House and really, if I try to think about it any more, my brain will explode. So, I just got off the golf course, and I’m going to watch TV or a movie or something to make the time go by because it’s the Night Before Michigan Football and I’m done stressing about the upcoming season.
Tomorrow, there will be a game, and many of our questions will be answered. For now, I’m going to enjoy the excitement of anticipation, because, ultimately, it’s just a game, and more than anything else I’m happy it’s football season once again. Have a great weekend, and Go Blue.
After the last two seasons, the counterpart to my “Five Hopeful Predictions” post should come rather easily — I could probably pick five things that will go horribly wrong with the secondary alone and do pretty well for myself. That would be too easy, however, so I’ll do my best to keep the focus on the team as a whole while making my five pessimistic predictions for the 2010 season (if you’re curious, here is last year’s version — I went 2/5, for the record):
The team finishes 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense — Last season, the Wolverines finished 70th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and that was with Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk manning the secondary. This year’s secondary features no player of Warren’s talent or Woolfolk’s experience, and the results likely won’t be pretty. The good news? It is possible to field a decent team with a horrific secondary: last year, Cal (8-5), Stanford (8-5), and Florida State (7-6 against a very tough schedule) all finished 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense. Those are outliers among some awful squads, but they’re also the schools with overall talent most comparable to Michigan’s at that point on the list. Teams will throw on Michigan, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win. It does help, though, and the pass defense will likely cost the team some games in 2010.
Michigan’s defense records 20 or fewer sacks — Despite the presence of Brandon Graham and his 10.5 sacks, Michigan finished just 68th in the country with 22.0 team sacks in 2009. Graham is off to the NFL, and while the defensive line should still be the strength of the Wolverine defense, I don’t see how the team will fully replace Graham’s tremendous production while also trying to mask the deficiencies in the back seven. I still expect Craig Roh to have a big season, and Ryan Van Bergen is a very solid defensive end, but this team could have a tough time getting to the quarterback if for no other reason than that the secondary may not be able to slow down the passing game enough to give the pass rush a chance.
No player breaks the 1,000-yard rushing mark – With the coaching staff talking about rotating 3-4 players at running back, and the quarterback competition far from resolved, it’s tough to see anyone becoming the first Wolverine in the Rich Rodriguez era to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau. The player with the best chance to prove me wrong may very well be Denard Robinson, who could threaten to put up Pat White-level numbers if he emerges as the clear number one quarterback, but that’s a very big “if” with Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner vying for playing time. While the Wolverines have several talented running backs, it doesn’t appear that anyone has emerged as a workhorse back — sophomore Vincent Smith, who is fresh off reconstructive knee surgery, sits atop the depth chart with oft-injured junior Michael Shaw, who may not even be academically qualified to play. Michigan should have a productive rushing offense, but it will likely be by committee, and not with a star feature back.
Michigan converts less than 65% of their field goals – I predicted this last year, and senior walk-on Jason Olesnavage managed to come through and prove me wrong, hitting 11-of-15 field goals for a 73.3% conversion rate. Once again, questions surround Michigan’s kicking game, however, and with Olesnavage gone redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons or redshirt freshman walk-on Seth Broekhuizen — currently listed as co-starters on the official depth chart — will have to step up. So far, the kickers have reportedly been inconsistent throughout the spring and fall, and I expect similar results as the season kicks off on Saturday. With no upperclassmen kicker — walk-on or otherwise — ready to take over the job, we might witness some major growing pains in the kicking game this year.
The team loses at least two of the three rivalry games – Those games, of course, being Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. This may seem like a lack of progress after Michigan took down Notre Dame last season and came close to pulling an epic comeback in East Lansing, but that may be deceiving — both of those teams should be improved this season, and the Buckeyes appear to be bona-fide national title contenders. Michigan’s best chance at a rivalry victory will be at home against the Spartans, but road contests in South Bend and Columbus will be very daunting for a team so green on defense.
Let’s all hope I go 0/5 on these predictions, as my love for the team far outweighs any pride I have in my prognosticating ability. Starting tomorrow, the season preview content begins to wrap up with Part I of my predictions for each game.
A couple weeks before last season, I threw out five positive predictions for the Wolverines. If you’re wondering how last season measured up to expectations, check out the post — none of the five came true (although Tate Forcier came close to completing the 60% of his passes I expected him to, finishing with a 58.7% completion percentage) and Michigan finished 5-7. This year, I’m throwing caution to the wind and trying my hand at this “optimism” thing one more time; here are five hopeful predictions for the 2010 season:
Denard Robinson averages 250 yards of total offense –There’s no question Denard Robinson is a special athlete, and if his passing has really progressed as advertised, he could put up some big numbers this season. 250 yards of total offense per game isn’t an outlandish number for a dual-threat quarterback — in 2009, that number would be good for 33rd in the country, and many of the players near the top of the list aren’t household names, but quarterbacks who can eat up yards on the ground. As a sophomore, Pat White averaged 261.3 yards per game, and while I don’t expect Robinson to match White’s production, I think he’ll come close, and close enough to make the Michigan offense very dangerous.
Mark Moundros totals 70 tackles – That’s right, redshirt senior fullback-turned-linebacker walk-on Mark Moundros, who is currently in a battle with redshirt senior Obi Ezeh to start at middle linebacker, will have at least 70 tackles, the exact figure Ezeh turned in last year. All indications point to Moundros as the probable starter come Saturday, and he had displayed solid tackling ability and a nose for the football since moving from fullback in the spring. It appears that Greg Robinson’s defense will have the middle linebackers attacking the line downhill, which should play to Moundros’s strengths. I don’t expect him to be a world-beater, or even an all-conference caliber player, but anything better than “decidedly below-average” will be a step in the right direction after 2009.
Carvin Johnson earns Freshman All-America honors – This doesn’t sound quite as outlandish as it appears in print, as Jordan Kovacs was a College Football News second-team Freshman All-American last year, but it still means Johnson will be a solid contributor to this year’s defense. The Louisiana native appears tailor-made for the spur position, which is essentially Stevie Brown’s linebacker/safety hybrid spot, as he is a very good tackler who drew rave reviews in his senior season after flying under the radar as a recruit. Johnson won’t be asked to do too much in coverage, but when he does, he shouldn’t be overmatched — he practiced some at cornerback this fall and recorded seven interceptions en route to being named first-team all-state in Louisiana’s largest division last year. Like any true freshman thrust into a starting role, there will be some bumps in the road, but I expect Johnson will be a pleasant surprise for the Wolverines in 2010.
A Michigan receiver breaks 50 receptions – In Rich Rodriguez’s first two seasons at Michigan, the production from the wideouts has been disappointing — Roy Roundtree led the team with 32 catches last season after Martavious Odoms paced the team with 49 in 2008. With Roundtree, Odoms, and Darryl Stonum all poised for big seasons, and Michigan’s quarterback situation looking like the best it has been since Chad Henne graduated, I expect at least one receiver to crack 50 receptions in a breakout season. The safe bet is for Roundtree to eclipse that mark while working from the slot, but don’t count out Odoms, a great possession receiver who is now working on the outside — he could see a lot of screens and quick passes that could pad his stats significantly.
Rich Rodriguez keeps his job – I’m not even necessarily predicting a bowl appearance, not with the defense in the shape it’s in, but I do think this team will show enough progression to allow Dave Brandon to keep Rich Rodriguez around for 2011. Rodriguez has seemingly caught every tough break imaginable in his two-plus years in Ann Arbor, and while this team still has a ways to go before they win like the Michigan of old, they’re certainly moving in the right direction. The offense should begin to resemble Rodriguez’s outstanding West Virginia units, and there is plenty of young talent across the board. I think this team will look just good enough for Brandon to give Rodriguez a chance to lead what should be an experienced and talented 2011 team, which only seems right, as Rodriguez has finally built the foundation for what should be a Big Ten contender.
Let’s all hope that these predictions hold up much better than last year’s, and I’ll have the flip side to this coin — my five “less hopeful” predictions — coming up soon.
With the Michigan basketball team hitting the home stretch of the regular season with little to no hope of an NCAA Tournament berth, it’s time to start looking ahead to 2010-11. There are just six games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament (@Iowa, PSU, ILL, @OSU, MINN, @MSU) but still a lot of questions to be answered about this team and their potential next season. Here are five things I’d like to see out of the team before the season is over:
The continued improvement of Darius Morris: This is an obvious one, but also very important. We’ve watched Morris grow in the last couple weeks from an offensive non-factor to the guy John Beilein trusts as his starting point guard, and the true freshman appears to be getting better with every game. If he can continue that improvement, Morris could be one of the stars of the team next season. If his game doesn’t develop, we could have another season with a point guard who won’t score more than 5-10 points in any given game. I’d like to see Morris, who has been deferential sometimes to a fault this season, look to create his own shot a little more — if Manny Harris ends up going pro, Michigan will need someone to step into the role of slasher/creator, and Morris is the most likely candidate. If he can show an ability to get to the basket and finish consistently, Michigan’s outlook for 2010-11 gets a lot better.
Manny Harris playing within himself: Let’s assume, at least for the time being, that Manny Harris will stay true to his word and come back next season. If he does return, Manny may have to shoulder even more of the offensive burden for Michigan without partner in crime DeShawn Sims. We’ve seen what happens to Manny when he tries to do too much for the team: turnovers, poor shot selection, and unnecessary risks on defense. Harris has made strides in the turnover department, improving in turnovers per game and turnover rate every season of his career, but his overall efficiency on the offensive end hasn’t made the leap that Michigan fans were expecting heading into this season. If he can start showing maturation now, I’ll be a lot more confident that Manny can be an efficient and effective player while still carrying his supporting cast.
Someone — anyone — find their shooting stroke: I guess I should amend that to “any returning player” but you get the point — as a team, Michigan is shooting 29.8% from three, and only three players (LLP, Stu Douglass, DeShawn Sims) who have attempted more than 25 is shooting better than 30%. John Beilein’s offense is predicated around the three-pointer, and that’s not going to change anytime soon, so it would be nice to see someone step up and start consistently hitting shots. If I had to pick a player I’d like to see find his stroke, it’s Zack Novak — he does everything well for this team right now except score, the other players feed off of his energy (and when he plays well, you can feel how he boosts the team), and he’ll almost certainly be starting next season, so having him become a bigger offensive threat would really benefit this team.
Stu Douglass regain his offensive confidence: It’s been tough to watch Douglass playing against himself for much of the season, and you can tell that his inability to hit jumpers has caused him to lose confidence in his all-around offensive game. With Morris now manning the point, Michigan doesn’t need to keep Douglass in the lineup going forward — few teams should be desperate enough to keep giving 30 minutes per game to a guy who shoots 31.5% from the field, doesn’t rebound well for his height, and can be exposed defensively against quicker guards. I’m not ready to give up on Stu, however, because of his ballhandling, passing, and his potential as a shooter. If Stu starts getting more aggressive, like he showed against Minnesota with that great backdoor cut for a layup, he could be an integral part of this team for the next two seasons. If he plays like he did earlier in Big Ten play, when he was passing up open layups and tripping over himself to avoid shooting, he may find himself getting passed over by younger players starting next season, when Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway get to campus.
See what Matt Vogrich can bring to this team: When this team was still battling for a (meaningful) postseason berth, I had no problem with John Beilein keeping the freshman Vogrich mostly out of the rotation (6 mpg this season). At this juncture, however, I’d like to see how Vogrich responds to a bigger role — in very limited opportunities, he has shown a Novakian ability to get to rebounds and loose balls as well as an effective three-point shot (9-for-24 on the season). Especially if Manny Harris turns pro, Michigan will need Vogrich to take on a bigger role next season. With nothing to lose this year, it would be nice to get him some experience getting big minutes in Big Ten play.
Michigan has a good opportunity to continue their momentum from the Minnesota win tomorrow night when they take on cellar-dweller Iowa on the road. Given how their first game against the Hawkeyes went (a 60-46 victory that wasn’t that close), the game could be an opportunity to see some experimenting with the rotation if John Beilein desires, and a chance to see guys like Vogrich get some burn off the bench.
It’s Ohio State week, when the records are thrown out the window and two storied rivals battle for pride and a year’s worth of supremacy. In that vein, I’m not going to look back at last week’s keys. Let’s get right to the good stuff:
Get on the board early — Michigan can’t afford to start this game in a hole. Playing from behind changes the way this offense runs (or doesn’t run) and could give Ohio State the momentum they need to blow the game wide open. I think Rich Rodriguez had the right idea last week when he elected to receive the opening kickoff. If Michigan can score first and establish that they’re in the game, it takes some of the pressure off of the defense and allows the offense to play how they want to. Also, an early score should get both the team and the fans into the game, which certainly can’t hurt.
Contain Terrelle Pryor — Duh, but it bears mentioning. Pryor is Ohio State’s biggest weapon on offense, and I’m most worried about him when he is able to start making plays with his feet. The defensive ends have got to maintain lane discipline, and the linebackers (and boy, does this part worry me) have to make sure to keep Pryor inside of them. If Michigan can force Pryor to become a pocket passer, much like USC did earlier this season, than I like the Wolverines’ odds of getting a few key stops.
Get Carlos Brown and Vincent Smith the ball in space — Brown showed an ability to take a screen pass all the way against Indiana, and Smith really impressed me last week against Wisconsin. With Brandon Minor doubtful for the game, those two will play a huge role in the offense. We know Brown isn’t much of a runner inside the tackles, and I don’t think Michigan is ready to rely on Smith as an every-down back, but both are capable of making big plays when they can get outside. I’d like to see a few screen or misdirections that take advantage of their skills.
Knock Justin Boren around — Self-explanatory.
Leave it all out there — A victory, obviously, would be incredible, but I’d love to see this game competitive for 60 minutes. The seniors — especially Brandon Graham — deserve it. Nothing is more depressing than a Senior Day blowout to your biggest rival. I’m sure the team will come out fired up, but they need to maintain that level of intensity for the whole game. Don’t leave any doubt that the team is 100% behind this coaching staff.
This is a unique opportunity for Michigan — nobody expects them to win, a loss only serves to end a disappointing season, but a victory means far, far more than just a 6-6 record and a bowl bid. I think the coaches and players all understand this, and we’ll see a team that’s motivated and hungry on Saturday. Will it be enough? Probably not against a team as good as the Buckeyes. Will it be closer than people believe? I think so. Ohio State 34, Michigan 27.
It’s time for this week’s edition of Five Things… first, a look back at last week’s keys:
No more Turnover Tate — Two more fumbles for Tate Forcier, with one going over to Purdue. His ball-security issues are clearly something that will have to be addressed in the offseason — for all his ability to create plays scrambling, his fumbling problems negate a lot of the positives he brings to the team.
Feed Brandon Minor — Minor was a force, carrying the ball 19 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, now he’s banged up again, so we’ll see if he can match that workload against Wisconsin. Cross your fingers, Wolverines.
Don’t break — 38 points 494 yards of offense allowed on 7.3 yards per play. Um, that’s broken, defense.
Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — In a way, we did — like much of this season, Elliott produced big numbers but mitigated some of his production with two interceptions. However, when you give up 367 yards and two touchdowns passing and can’t get a stop when holding on to a lead, you don’t get a pass. Sorry.
Play with an edge — I will give the team this one. They played damn hard. The effort was there, but the execution fell short.
Well, we tried, and Brandon Minor had the kind of game that makes you wonder how we would’ve done if he was healthy all year. Before I pull out the remaining hair on my head, let’s move on to Wisconsin:
Convert in the red zone — Michigan is pathetic 107th in the country in red zone offense, scoring just 71% of the time they’re inside the 20. Wisconsin, on the other hand, scores on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The Wolverine defense is going to allow Wisconsin some red zone chances, and in all likelihood, they will convert. Michigan has shown they can move the ball on anybody on offense, but they will have to match the Badgers’ red zone scores if they want to keep up. That means no back-breaking turnovers, Tate. Yes, I’m basically recycling the same game keys here, but the same issues keep coming up.
Feed Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown — See? I told you the same issues keep coming up. In this case, I think Michigan will have to establish, and keep establishing, the run game if they want to win this one. Wisconsin will be doing their best to wear down the defense by pounding them with John Clay on the interior — I’m fully expecting to see some painfully long marches down the field by the Badgers. If healthy, Minor is Michigan’s best counter to this — he’s the one running back who has shown an ability to consistently produce between the tackles. If Minor is out or limited, Carlos Brown will have to do his best Minor impression, and hopefully will be fed enough to break a big run or two. Either way, the offense will be relying on their senior backs to match Wisconsin’s smashmouth style.
Take advantage of Wisconsin’s special teams — The Badgers are 66th in the country in net punting (35.51 yards/punt) and 116th in kick return defense (25.59 yards/return). Junior Hemingway, when he’s not putting the ball on the ground, showed the ability to break a big punt return against Purdue. Darryl Stonum has established himself to the point where he seems liable to break a kick return on every touch. Field position will be at a premium against Wisconsin, and between the returns and Zoltan Mesko’s ability to pin the opponent deep, I think Michigan has a golden opportunity to take hold of the field position battle.
Linebackers, stay disciplined — Michigan has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup, each change triggered by a back-breaking mistake (just look at MGoBlog’s defensive UFR if you doubt me on this). I can somewhat understand the limitations of Obi Ezeh (three-star running back coming out of high school) and Kevin Leach (walk-on), but the fact that Jonas Mouton continually makes horrendous mental errors is a lot less acceptable. I don’t want to attempt to count the number of times he’s allowed a quarterback or running back to get outside of him — when that’s his only responsibility — but that has to end. Keep John Clay inside, and feed him into the line and middle backer (whoever it is). Please.
Play desperate — Let’s be honest: If Michigan wants to make a bowl game, this is the time to step up and get a victory. Wisconsin is a hell of a lot more beatable than Ohio State, regardless of what you think of Terrelle Pryor’s development (or lack of). The coaching staff, and players, can’t hold anything back on this one. Even though this shouldn’t be (and isn’t) the case, I want to see Rich Rodriguez coaching this game like his job depends on it. Bust out trick plays, throw in a new wrinkle on offense we haven’t seen, play Brandon Graham at fullback — whatever it takes, do it.
No prediction this week: Michigan keeps letting me down every time I expect a bounce-back performance, and I’m sick of predicting losses. Right now, it’s about watching for progress, especially on defense. I wonder if “Let’s Go Progress” will catch on as a chant… No? OK, I’ll shut up now. Go Blue.
I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:
Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.
Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:
Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.
It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.
Last week’s game was such a pasting it isn’t really worth looking at, so let’s dive right into the keys to the Penn State game:
Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Penn State ranks 16th in the country in sacks allowed (just one per game), so this won’t be the easiest of tasks. However, those of you who watched the Nittany Lions take on Iowa know how important it is to rattle Darryl Clark. While the Hawkeyes only sacked Clark twice, they were able to get in his face and force a lot of bad throws, and I believe two of Clark’s three picks came on passes that were tipped at the line. When he has time to pass, Clark can pick apart a defense, but when he feels pressure, he loses some composure and can become turnover-prone. Michigan will need that edge against this stout Penn State defense.
Make a big play in the return game — The Nittany Lions have had a terrible year when it comes to special teams — they’re 86th in net punting yards (despite having a punter who leads the conference in average yards per punt) and 87th in average yards allowed per kick return. I don’t expect much out of Michigan’s punt return game, as Greg Mathews hasn’t shown much ability to do anything besides catch the ball (and he failed to do that against Iowa, and was subsequently benched for Junior Hemingway). However, Darryl Stonum has looked good returning kickoffs, and his return TD against Notre Dame changed the course of that game. If Stonum can give Michigan good field position, like he did against Indiana, or simply break one off for a score, it could be the difference.
Punch it in — Against a defense as good as Penn State’s, you can’t afford to miss opportunities. The Nittany Lions are tied for first in the nation in red zone defense, allowing scores just 61% of the time. When Michigan gets into the red zone, they have to get points out of it, and the difference in the game could be which team can turn their red zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals. With Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown at least healthy enough to play, there’s really no excuse for Michigan to not be able to convert when they drive deep into Lion territory.
Slow down the pass rush — Penn State has one of the best front sevens in the country, and should be even stronger with the return of Sean Lee this week. Their linebackers play aggressive, cover the field from sideline to sideline, and get to the quarterback. Michigan will have to find a way to slow down the pass rush, and I don’t think this simply comes down to the offensive line blocking well. With how aggressive their linebackers play, Penn State could be susceptible to the play-action pass or a well-timed screen. I fully expect Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee to utilize both in an effort to make the linebackers hesitant. If Michigan can keep the Lions away from Tate Forcier, they should have an opportunity to attack the weakest part of the Penn State defense — their secondary.
Get off the field — Michigan just could not get off the field on defense against Iowa, allowing them to convert several third-and-longs. Penn State ranks third in the country in third down conversions, getting the first at a 57% clip. Their rate can’t be that high if Michigan wants to have a chance in this one, and it will take an effort from the whole defense to slow down Clark and Co. Avoid those back-breaking third-and-long conversions, and the Wolverines have a shot at this one.
After watching Penn State play, I get the feeling that they’re quite vulnerable to an upset. However, the flaws on Michigan’s defense, in conjunction with the strength of Penn State’s, make it very tough for me to think Michigan will take this one. I think it’ll be a close game that comes down to a couple possessions late, but I think the Lions pull away at the end: 31-21 Penn State, in a game even closer than the score would indicate.
My internet has decided to only work half the time, and at a snail’s pace when it does, so this is going to be a very quick “Five Things…”
Don’t get injured — If Tate plays more than a quarter, I’ll be a little concerned. Hopefully he’s smart enough to not scramble too much or take any big hits. I’m really hoping we can get the starters out by the second half and just put it in cruise control from there.
Lots of carries for Shaw and Smith — Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown may be the present, but they are also seniors. Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith have both shown flashes of tremendous talent at times (Shaw in actual games, Smith in spring practice, mostly). I’d love to see both of them get some work in with the starters and let Minor and Brown fully heal for Penn State.
Denard Robinson complete some downfield passes — Shoelace’s confidence can’t be riding very high after that pick against Iowa. If the coaches let him loose and allow him to sling the ball downfield, hopefully he’ll respond with a solid game. If he can’t show passing ability against Delaware State, you can pretty much write him off as a passing threat for the rest of this season.
No blown assignments by the defense — We shouldn’t have to worry about DSU moving the ball against the defense that much. However, much of the issues with the defense have not been schematic, but simply players missing assignments or getting out of position. This should be a game where the team can focus fully on fixing those kind of mistakes.
Don’t get injured — Seriously.
Prediction: 48-10 Michigan. If this game is much closer, I may start breaking things.
It’s Thursday, so again it’s time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week (unfortunately):
Continue the success of the return game — Stonum returned three kicks for 60 yards, a far cry from the 218 return yards (albeit on seven returns) he had against Indiana. He didn’t really come close to breaking one, and Michigan could really have used the field position they enjoyed against the Hoosiers. Oh well.
Limit the freshmen mistakes — Up until his last pass of the game, Forcier managed to pull this one off despite teetering on the edge of disaster several times in the late stages of the game. However, you can’t really pin this on on Tate: the guy was doing everything he possibly could to will the offense down the field. Even with the pick in overtime, Tate did a tremendous job of not making a disastrous play until it reached a point where he finally tried to do too much.
Get to the quarterback — The defense, outside of the mammoth 17-play drive in the first quarter, played a very solid game. The D recorded two sacks and had several other hurries (Brandon Graham, especially, had a MONSTER game). This is one area that was tough to criticize last weekend.
Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — Michigan did have two 40+ yard completions, one to Koger and the late catch-and-run by Stonum. However, there really still isn’t a guy that Michigan can just send on a fly route and put the ball up there. Where art thou, Junior Hemingway?
Stay tough in the red zone — The Wolverines alternating between bending and breaking: the first State TD was a break, to say the least, and not in a good way, and the 15-yard touchdown run by Winston met little to no resistance. However, Michigan also held State to two short field goals, including one on the drive that ensued directly after the rollout punt FAIL. And Brandon Graham did this:
Which was awesome. Half-credit, maybe?
All in all, this could go anywhere from a 1/5 to a 4/5, depending on how you look at it. Let’s just say 2.5/5 and move on to the keys for Iowa before the vein in my forehead explodes.
Capitalize on scoring chances — When looked at from a pure points allowed perspective, Iowa’s defense is daunting, to say the least. They’ve given up a mere 13.4 points per game, good for 10th in the country (and only third in the conference, which is ridiculous). However, Iowa drops down to 32nd in the country in total yards allowed (302.6 per game) and 50th in the country in rush defense (122.2 yards per game). Now, I’m no Smart Football (seriously, check out that site), but that looks to me like a defense that has gotten a little bit lucky in the turnover department (anyone who watched the Penn State game probably has the same impression) and is due to give up some points. Michigan has to take points when they are available.
Force Ricky Stanzi to beat you with his arm — I must say, I have no clue why people are so high on Stanzi. He is currently 70th in the country in passing efficiency, and coincidentally just one spot ahead of Western’s Tim Hiller and three ahead of Indiana’s Ben Chappell. In five games this season, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. I realize that pass defense is the weakness of this Michigan team, but the defense actually did a solid job against State’s previously-productive passing game, and Stanzi is prone to mistakes. Semi-bold prediction: Donovan Warren comes up with a pick. Mark it down.
Get Brandon Minor at least 25 touches — It sounds more and more like Carlos Brown will not be available on Saturday (rumor is he suffered a concussion in practice, FWIW), which means lots of Brandon Minor and some Michael Shaw sprinkled in. As noted earlier, Iowa is actually somewhat susceptible to the run. Against a defense as strong as the Hawkeyes’, having some success on the ground would be huge. Minor only had four touches against MSU (for 2 yards), and that cannot happen again if Michigan wants to be in this game.
Jonas Mouton, please stop being an idiot — I don’t know what else to say on this one. Mouton, more than any other Wolverine (besides, maybe, whoever is playing corner opposite Warren) has been responsible for big plays by the opponent. He is insanely athletic, but gets himself out of position and gives up the edge far too often. If Mouton can regain his form from the end of last year, and stay in the game mentally, he could be a real force on defense. Michigan needs somebody besides Warren and Graham to step up and make plays; Mouton could (and should) be that guy.
Make a statement — A lot of people will be tuning in to this game to see if Michigan is for real. So far, we have beaten three crappy teams and a Notre Dame squad that looks to be borderline top-25 and lost to a crappy Michigan State team. Heading into the meat of the Big Ten schedule, this team still doesn’t really have an identity. Some how, some way, forge an identity against Iowa, and the momentum from a night win against a top-15 team could carry this team through the season.
I’m really torn on this game. On one hand, I think Michigan is a far better team than we showed last week, and Iowa has really played down to their competition in every game and looks ripe for an upset. On the other hand, this is a night game (and homecoming, and a “blackout” game) in Iowa, and we have a very young team that has yet to really prove themselves. I think this will be close, but home field gives the edge to the Hawkeyes … Iowa 27, Michigan 18.
Alex on 
JL on 
Ace Anbender on 
Steve on 
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