Darius Morris has earned the starting point guard role as a true freshman.
With the Michigan basketball team hitting the home stretch of the regular season with little to no hope of an NCAA Tournament berth, it’s time to start looking ahead to 2010-11. There are just six games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament (@Iowa, PSU, ILL, @OSU, MINN, @MSU) but still a lot of questions to be answered about this team and their potential next season. Here are five things I’d like to see out of the team before the season is over:
The continued improvement of Darius Morris: This is an obvious one, but also very important. We’ve watched Morris grow in the last couple weeks from an offensive non-factor to the guy John Beilein trusts as his starting point guard, and the true freshman appears to be getting better with every game. If he can continue that improvement, Morris could be one of the stars of the team next season. If his game doesn’t develop, we could have another season with a point guard who won’t score more than 5-10 points in any given game. I’d like to see Morris, who has been deferential sometimes to a fault this season, look to create his own shot a little more — if Manny Harris ends up going pro, Michigan will need someone to step into the role of slasher/creator, and Morris is the most likely candidate. If he can show an ability to get to the basket and finish consistently, Michigan’s outlook for 2010-11 gets a lot better.
Manny Harris playing within himself: Let’s assume, at least for the time being, that Manny Harris will stay true to his word and come back next season. If he does return, Manny may have to shoulder even more of the offensive burden for Michigan without partner in crime DeShawn Sims. We’ve seen what happens to Manny when he tries to do too much for the team: turnovers, poor shot selection, and unnecessary risks on defense. Harris has made strides in the turnover department, improving in turnovers per game and turnover rate every season of his career, but his overall efficiency on the offensive end hasn’t made the leap that Michigan fans were expecting heading into this season. If he can start showing maturation now, I’ll be a lot more confident that Manny can be an efficient and effective player while still carrying his supporting cast.
Someone — anyone — find their shooting stroke: I guess I should amend that to “any returning player” but you get the point — as a team, Michigan is shooting 29.8% from three, and only three players (LLP, Stu Douglass, DeShawn Sims) who have attempted more than 25 is shooting better than 30%. John Beilein’s offense is predicated around the three-pointer, and that’s not going to change anytime soon, so it would be nice to see someone step up and start consistently hitting shots. If I had to pick a player I’d like to see find his stroke, it’s Zack Novak — he does everything well for this team right now except score, the other players feed off of his energy (and when he plays well, you can feel how he boosts the team), and he’ll almost certainly be starting next season, so having him become a bigger offensive threat would really benefit this team.
Stu Douglass regain his offensive confidence: It’s been tough to watch Douglass playing against himself for much of the season, and you can tell that his inability to hit jumpers has caused him to lose confidence in his all-around offensive game. With Morris now manning the point, Michigan doesn’t need to keep Douglass in the lineup going forward — few teams should be desperate enough to keep giving 30 minutes per game to a guy who shoots 31.5% from the field, doesn’t rebound well for his height, and can be exposed defensively against quicker guards. I’m not ready to give up on Stu, however, because of his ballhandling, passing, and his potential as a shooter. If Stu starts getting more aggressive, like he showed against Minnesota with that great backdoor cut for a layup, he could be an integral part of this team for the next two seasons. If he plays like he did earlier in Big Ten play, when he was passing up open layups and tripping over himself to avoid shooting, he may find himself getting passed over by younger players starting next season, when Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway get to campus.
See what Matt Vogrich can bring to this team: When this team was still battling for a (meaningful) postseason berth, I had no problem with John Beilein keeping the freshman Vogrich mostly out of the rotation (6 mpg this season). At this juncture, however, I’d like to see how Vogrich responds to a bigger role — in very limited opportunities, he has shown a Novakian ability to get to rebounds and loose balls as well as an effective three-point shot (9-for-24 on the season). Especially if Manny Harris turns pro, Michigan will need Vogrich to take on a bigger role next season. With nothing to lose this year, it would be nice to get him some experience getting big minutes in Big Ten play.
Michigan has a good opportunity to continue their momentum from the Minnesota win tomorrow night when they take on cellar-dweller Iowa on the road. Given how their first game against the Hawkeyes went (a 60-46 victory that wasn’t that close), the game could be an opportunity to see some experimenting with the rotation if John Beilein desires, and a chance to see guys like Vogrich get some burn off the bench.
Win one for this guy, please. (No, not Tim Hiller, the other guy.)
It’s Ohio State week, when the records are thrown out the window and two storied rivals battle for pride and a year’s worth of supremacy. In that vein, I’m not going to look back at last week’s keys. Let’s get right to the good stuff:
Get on the board early — Michigan can’t afford to start this game in a hole. Playing from behind changes the way this offense runs (or doesn’t run) and could give Ohio State the momentum they need to blow the game wide open. I think Rich Rodriguez had the right idea last week when he elected to receive the opening kickoff. If Michigan can score first and establish that they’re in the game, it takes some of the pressure off of the defense and allows the offense to play how they want to. Also, an early score should get both the team and the fans into the game, which certainly can’t hurt.
Contain Terrelle Pryor — Duh, but it bears mentioning. Pryor is Ohio State’s biggest weapon on offense, and I’m most worried about him when he is able to start making plays with his feet. The defensive ends have got to maintain lane discipline, and the linebackers (and boy, does this part worry me) have to make sure to keep Pryor inside of them. If Michigan can force Pryor to become a pocket passer, much like USC did earlier this season, than I like the Wolverines’ odds of getting a few key stops.
Get Carlos Brown and Vincent Smith the ball in space — Brown showed an ability to take a screen pass all the way against Indiana, and Smith really impressed me last week against Wisconsin. With Brandon Minor doubtful for the game, those two will play a huge role in the offense. We know Brown isn’t much of a runner inside the tackles, and I don’t think Michigan is ready to rely on Smith as an every-down back, but both are capable of making big plays when they can get outside. I’d like to see a few screen or misdirections that take advantage of their skills.
Knock Justin Boren around — Self-explanatory.
Leave it all out there — A victory, obviously, would be incredible, but I’d love to see this game competitive for 60 minutes. The seniors — especially Brandon Graham — deserve it. Nothing is more depressing than a Senior Day blowout to your biggest rival. I’m sure the team will come out fired up, but they need to maintain that level of intensity for the whole game. Don’t leave any doubt that the team is 100% behind this coaching staff.
This is a unique opportunity for Michigan — nobody expects them to win, a loss only serves to end a disappointing season, but a victory means far, far more than just a 6-6 record and a bowl bid. I think the coaches and players all understand this, and we’ll see a team that’s motivated and hungry on Saturday. Will it be enough? Probably not against a team as good as the Buckeyes. Will it be closer than people believe? I think so. Ohio State 34, Michigan 27.
Jonas Mouton is capable of making plays -- that is, when he's in position to make them.
It’s time for this week’s edition of Five Things… first, a look back at last week’s keys:
No more Turnover Tate — Two more fumbles for Tate Forcier, with one going over to Purdue. His ball-security issues are clearly something that will have to be addressed in the offseason — for all his ability to create plays scrambling, his fumbling problems negate a lot of the positives he brings to the team.
Feed Brandon Minor — Minor was a force, carrying the ball 19 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, now he’s banged up again, so we’ll see if he can match that workload against Wisconsin. Cross your fingers, Wolverines.
Don’t break — 38 points 494 yards of offense allowed on 7.3 yards per play. Um, that’s broken, defense.
Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — In a way, we did — like much of this season, Elliott produced big numbers but mitigated some of his production with two interceptions. However, when you give up 367 yards and two touchdowns passing and can’t get a stop when holding on to a lead, you don’t get a pass. Sorry.
Play with an edge — I will give the team this one. They played damn hard. The effort was there, but the execution fell short.
Well, we tried, and Brandon Minor had the kind of game that makes you wonder how we would’ve done if he was healthy all year. Before I pull out the remaining hair on my head, let’s move on to Wisconsin:
Convert in the red zone — Michigan is pathetic 107th in the country in red zone offense, scoring just 71% of the time they’re inside the 20. Wisconsin, on the other hand, scores on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The Wolverine defense is going to allow Wisconsin some red zone chances, and in all likelihood, they will convert. Michigan has shown they can move the ball on anybody on offense, but they will have to match the Badgers’ red zone scores if they want to keep up. That means no back-breaking turnovers, Tate. Yes, I’m basically recycling the same game keys here, but the same issues keep coming up.
Feed Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown — See? I told you the same issues keep coming up. In this case, I think Michigan will have to establish, and keep establishing, the run game if they want to win this one. Wisconsin will be doing their best to wear down the defense by pounding them with John Clay on the interior — I’m fully expecting to see some painfully long marches down the field by the Badgers. If healthy, Minor is Michigan’s best counter to this — he’s the one running back who has shown an ability to consistently produce between the tackles. If Minor is out or limited, Carlos Brown will have to do his best Minor impression, and hopefully will be fed enough to break a big run or two. Either way, the offense will be relying on their senior backs to match Wisconsin’s smashmouth style.
Take advantage of Wisconsin’s special teams — The Badgers are 66th in the country in net punting (35.51 yards/punt) and 116th in kick return defense (25.59 yards/return). Junior Hemingway, when he’s not putting the ball on the ground, showed the ability to break a big punt return against Purdue. Darryl Stonum has established himself to the point where he seems liable to break a kick return on every touch. Field position will be at a premium against Wisconsin, and between the returns and Zoltan Mesko’s ability to pin the opponent deep, I think Michigan has a golden opportunity to take hold of the field position battle.
Linebackers, stay disciplined — Michigan has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup, each change triggered by a back-breaking mistake (just look at MGoBlog’s defensive UFR if you doubt me on this). I can somewhat understand the limitations of Obi Ezeh (three-star running back coming out of high school) and Kevin Leach (walk-on), but the fact that Jonas Mouton continually makes horrendous mental errors is a lot less acceptable. I don’t want to attempt to count the number of times he’s allowed a quarterback or running back to get outside of him — when that’s his only responsibility — but that has to end. Keep John Clay inside, and feed him into the line and middle backer (whoever it is). Please.
Play desperate — Let’s be honest: If Michigan wants to make a bowl game, this is the time to step up and get a victory. Wisconsin is a hell of a lot more beatable than Ohio State, regardless of what you think of Terrelle Pryor’s development (or lack of). The coaching staff, and players, can’t hold anything back on this one. Even though this shouldn’t be (and isn’t) the case, I want to see Rich Rodriguez coaching this game like his job depends on it. Bust out trick plays, throw in a new wrinkle on offense we haven’t seen, play Brandon Graham at fullback — whatever it takes, do it.
No prediction this week: Michigan keeps letting me down every time I expect a bounce-back performance, and I’m sick of predicting losses. Right now, it’s about watching for progress, especially on defense. I wonder if “Let’s Go Progress” will catch on as a chant… No? OK, I’ll shut up now. Go Blue.
Jordan Kovacs, and whoever else plays safety, needs to keep the ball in front of them.
I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:
Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.
Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:
Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.
It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.
Darryl Stonum could play a big role in the return game this week.
Last week’s game was such a pasting it isn’t really worth looking at, so let’s dive right into the keys to the Penn State game:
Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Penn State ranks 16th in the country in sacks allowed (just one per game), so this won’t be the easiest of tasks. However, those of you who watched the Nittany Lions take on Iowa know how important it is to rattle Darryl Clark. While the Hawkeyes only sacked Clark twice, they were able to get in his face and force a lot of bad throws, and I believe two of Clark’s three picks came on passes that were tipped at the line. When he has time to pass, Clark can pick apart a defense, but when he feels pressure, he loses some composure and can become turnover-prone. Michigan will need that edge against this stout Penn State defense.
Make a big play in the return game — The Nittany Lions have had a terrible year when it comes to special teams — they’re 86th in net punting yards (despite having a punter who leads the conference in average yards per punt) and 87th in average yards allowed per kick return. I don’t expect much out of Michigan’s punt return game, as Greg Mathews hasn’t shown much ability to do anything besides catch the ball (and he failed to do that against Iowa, and was subsequently benched for Junior Hemingway). However, Darryl Stonum has looked good returning kickoffs, and his return TD against Notre Dame changed the course of that game. If Stonum can give Michigan good field position, like he did against Indiana, or simply break one off for a score, it could be the difference.
Punch it in — Against a defense as good as Penn State’s, you can’t afford to miss opportunities. The Nittany Lions are tied for first in the nation in red zone defense, allowing scores just 61% of the time. When Michigan gets into the red zone, they have to get points out of it, and the difference in the game could be which team can turn their red zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals. With Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown at least healthy enough to play, there’s really no excuse for Michigan to not be able to convert when they drive deep into Lion territory.
Slow down the pass rush — Penn State has one of the best front sevens in the country, and should be even stronger with the return of Sean Lee this week. Their linebackers play aggressive, cover the field from sideline to sideline, and get to the quarterback. Michigan will have to find a way to slow down the pass rush, and I don’t think this simply comes down to the offensive line blocking well. With how aggressive their linebackers play, Penn State could be susceptible to the play-action pass or a well-timed screen. I fully expect Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee to utilize both in an effort to make the linebackers hesitant. If Michigan can keep the Lions away from Tate Forcier, they should have an opportunity to attack the weakest part of the Penn State defense — their secondary.
Get off the field — Michigan just could not get off the field on defense against Iowa, allowing them to convert several third-and-longs. Penn State ranks third in the country in third down conversions, getting the first at a 57% clip. Their rate can’t be that high if Michigan wants to have a chance in this one, and it will take an effort from the whole defense to slow down Clark and Co. Avoid those back-breaking third-and-long conversions, and the Wolverines have a shot at this one.
After watching Penn State play, I get the feeling that they’re quite vulnerable to an upset. However, the flaws on Michigan’s defense, in conjunction with the strength of Penn State’s, make it very tough for me to think Michigan will take this one. I think it’ll be a close game that comes down to a couple possessions late, but I think the Lions pull away at the end: 31-21 Penn State, in a game even closer than the score would indicate.
My internet has decided to only work half the time, and at a snail’s pace when it does, so this is going to be a very quick “Five Things…”
Don’t get injured — If Tate plays more than a quarter, I’ll be a little concerned. Hopefully he’s smart enough to not scramble too much or take any big hits. I’m really hoping we can get the starters out by the second half and just put it in cruise control from there.
Lots of carries for Shaw and Smith — Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown may be the present, but they are also seniors. Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith have both shown flashes of tremendous talent at times (Shaw in actual games, Smith in spring practice, mostly). I’d love to see both of them get some work in with the starters and let Minor and Brown fully heal for Penn State.
Denard Robinson complete some downfield passes — Shoelace’s confidence can’t be riding very high after that pick against Iowa. If the coaches let him loose and allow him to sling the ball downfield, hopefully he’ll respond with a solid game. If he can’t show passing ability against Delaware State, you can pretty much write him off as a passing threat for the rest of this season.
No blown assignments by the defense — We shouldn’t have to worry about DSU moving the ball against the defense that much. However, much of the issues with the defense have not been schematic, but simply players missing assignments or getting out of position. This should be a game where the team can focus fully on fixing those kind of mistakes.
Don’t get injured — Seriously.
Prediction: 48-10 Michigan. If this game is much closer, I may start breaking things.
Odds are, Ricky Stanzi will throw a pick. Michigan has to capitalize.
It’s Thursday, so again it’s time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week (unfortunately):
Continue the success of the return game — Stonum returned three kicks for 60 yards, a far cry from the 218 return yards (albeit on seven returns) he had against Indiana. He didn’t really come close to breaking one, and Michigan could really have used the field position they enjoyed against the Hoosiers. Oh well.
Limit the freshmen mistakes — Up until his last pass of the game, Forcier managed to pull this one off despite teetering on the edge of disaster several times in the late stages of the game. However, you can’t really pin this on on Tate: the guy was doing everything he possibly could to will the offense down the field. Even with the pick in overtime, Tate did a tremendous job of not making a disastrous play until it reached a point where he finally tried to do too much.
Get to the quarterback — The defense, outside of the mammoth 17-play drive in the first quarter, played a very solid game. The D recorded two sacks and had several other hurries (Brandon Graham, especially, had a MONSTER game). This is one area that was tough to criticize last weekend.
Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — Michigan did have two 40+ yard completions, one to Koger and the late catch-and-run by Stonum. However, there really still isn’t a guy that Michigan can just send on a fly route and put the ball up there. Where art thou, Junior Hemingway?
Stay tough in the red zone — The Wolverines alternating between bending and breaking: the first State TD was a break, to say the least, and not in a good way, and the 15-yard touchdown run by Winston met little to no resistance. However, Michigan also held State to two short field goals, including one on the drive that ensued directly after the rollout punt FAIL. And Brandon Graham did this:
Which was awesome. Half-credit, maybe?
All in all, this could go anywhere from a 1/5 to a 4/5, depending on how you look at it. Let’s just say 2.5/5 and move on to the keys for Iowa before the vein in my forehead explodes.
Capitalize on scoring chances — When looked at from a pure points allowed perspective, Iowa’s defense is daunting, to say the least. They’ve given up a mere 13.4 points per game, good for 10th in the country (and only third in the conference, which is ridiculous). However, Iowa drops down to 32nd in the country in total yards allowed (302.6 per game) and 50th in the country in rush defense (122.2 yards per game). Now, I’m no Smart Football (seriously, check out that site), but that looks to me like a defense that has gotten a little bit lucky in the turnover department (anyone who watched the Penn State game probably has the same impression) and is due to give up some points. Michigan has to take points when they are available.
Force Ricky Stanzi to beat you with his arm — I must say, I have no clue why people are so high on Stanzi. He is currently 70th in the country in passing efficiency, and coincidentally just one spot ahead of Western’s Tim Hiller and three ahead of Indiana’s Ben Chappell. In five games this season, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. I realize that pass defense is the weakness of this Michigan team, but the defense actually did a solid job against State’s previously-productive passing game, and Stanzi is prone to mistakes. Semi-bold prediction: Donovan Warren comes up with a pick. Mark it down.
Get Brandon Minor at least 25 touches — It sounds more and more like Carlos Brown will not be available on Saturday (rumor is he suffered a concussion in practice, FWIW), which means lots of Brandon Minor and some Michael Shaw sprinkled in. As noted earlier, Iowa is actually somewhat susceptible to the run. Against a defense as strong as the Hawkeyes’, having some success on the ground would be huge. Minor only had four touches against MSU (for 2 yards), and that cannot happen again if Michigan wants to be in this game.
Jonas Mouton, please stop being an idiot — I don’t know what else to say on this one. Mouton, more than any other Wolverine (besides, maybe, whoever is playing corner opposite Warren) has been responsible for big plays by the opponent. He is insanely athletic, but gets himself out of position and gives up the edge far too often. If Mouton can regain his form from the end of last year, and stay in the game mentally, he could be a real force on defense. Michigan needs somebody besides Warren and Graham to step up and make plays; Mouton could (and should) be that guy.
Make a statement — A lot of people will be tuning in to this game to see if Michigan is for real. So far, we have beaten three crappy teams and a Notre Dame squad that looks to be borderline top-25 and lost to a crappy Michigan State team. Heading into the meat of the Big Ten schedule, this team still doesn’t really have an identity. Some how, some way, forge an identity against Iowa, and the momentum from a night win against a top-15 team could carry this team through the season.
I’m really torn on this game. On one hand, I think Michigan is a far better team than we showed last week, and Iowa has really played down to their competition in every game and looks ripe for an upset. On the other hand, this is a night game (and homecoming, and a “blackout” game) in Iowa, and we have a very young team that has yet to really prove themselves. I think this will be close, but home field gives the edge to the Hawkeyes … Iowa 27, Michigan 18.
The Wolverines could use a resurgence from Junior Hemingway.
It’s that time of the week again, the time for “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week’s keys:
Contain Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton — Kirlew forced the Denard Robinson fumble, and Middleton came away with two sacks (for seven yards lost), but I actually thought Michigan did a fairly good job keeping these two quiet for most of the day. However, results are results, and the line did allow Indiana’s two big-play defenders to come through with big plays.
Gel on the offensive line — To quote myself: “Losing the center is tough, however, since he is the man tasked with making the calls up front, as well as shouldering the responsibility of making sure the ball gets safely to the quarterback. Moosman and Forcier will hopefully have built a solid rapport in practice this week, as Michigan has already dealt with a few fumbled snaps this season.” Oops. The coaching staff is working on Moosman’s snap technique, and hopefully he’ll be much more comfortable getting the ball safely to each quarterback against MSU.
Re-establish a deep threat — Michigan’s outside receivers combined for a grand total of two catches and nine yards (one catch each by LaTerryal Savoy and Junior Hemingway). Against a solid opponent, that’s just not going to get the job done.
Shore up the run defense — On 32 of Indiana’s carries, Michigan gave up only 112 yards for a solid 3.5 yards per carry allowed. However, Indiana had 33 carries, and Darius Willis tacked on 85 yards and a touchdown in a critical fourth-quarter situation. Ryan Van Bergen has admitted fault for making the wrong check on that play, but a lot of things have to go wrong to allow a run of that length (namely, an Indiana tailback out-running the entire secondary). Hopefully, that play was a one-time-only mistake, and Michigan will do a better job of containing what has been a sub-par Spartan rushing attack.
Keep Brandon Minor healthy — Minor was limited to 12 carries and looked generally healthy, especially when tasked with converting a late 3rd and one on Michigan’s last drive (when he trucked a safety to convert the first down). Carlos Brown was the MVP of the first half, scoring two long touchdowns and tallying over 140 all-purpose yards on the game. Minor is a go for Michigan State and practiced yesterday. Check.
Well, that looks like 1/5 to me, which isn’t exactly surprising considering we barely eked out a victory over Indiana. Let’s move on to the key’s for Saturday’s game:
Continue the success of the return game — This game shapes up to be a shootout, so field position will be incredibly valuable. Darryl Stonum had a huge game on kick returns against Indiana — his 218 kick return yards were the highest total by any Big Ten player this season — and came very close on several returns to taking one all the way. If Stonum allows Michigan to start at the 35 or better after every MSU score, I like Michigan’s chances of out-gunning the Spartans.
Limit the freshmen mistakes — One of Tate Forcier’s desperate sack-avoiding tosses finally found its way into the arms of a defender, and Denard Robinson practically handed the ball off to Indiana on a seemingly innocent run. It’s tough to stress just how important ball security is in this game: it’s completely cliche, but one turnover can completely change the outlook of this game.
Get to the quarterback — Again, duh, this is part of winning football. However, Michigan could only muster one sack against Indiana, and has just four sacks in four games (good for 100th in the country). Anybody who watched the MSU/Notre Dame game knows that getting a little pressure on Kirk Cousins can lead to some spectacular errors on his part — get to Cousins (and Nichol) and Michigan could receive a few gifts from Sparty on Saturday.
Seriously, re-establish the deep threat — I’m just going to keep making this one of the keys until it finally happens: Michigan needs a consistent, viable deep threat. Rich Rodriguez’s offense is predicated on spreading the field horizontally and vertically, but since Junior Hemingway’s week one “breakout” against Western Michigan, Michigan’s only pass play over 40 yards was the 61-yard screen-turned-touchdown to Carlos Brown last week. That’s going to have to change at some point if Michigan wants to keep winning, and that point may very well be Saturday.
Stay tough in the red zone — If you want to point to one reason that Michigan managed to beat Indiana despite allowing 467 yards of total offense, it is this: The Hoosiers made it into the red zone five times, and five times they were forced to settle for field goals. Michigan State tops the conference in total offense and is fourth in scoring offense — they’re going to get their yards against Michigan. However, if the Wolverines can hold the Spartans to field goals while punching the ball into the end zone when given the chance on offense, well, my basic math skills tell me we’re going to win.
I have a really hard time seeing this game play out in any way other than a tightly-contested shootout, and when it comes down to it, I trust Forcier to make the plays to win the game that Kirk Cousins just hasn’t made yet. Now, let’s all say a prayer that he’s close to 100% come Saturday… Michigan 38, Michigan State 34
It’s Thursday, which means another edition of “Five Things…”. First, a look back at last week’s game:
Establish Denard Robinson as a passing threat — 0-4, 2 interceptions. Bad. Two rushing touchdowns? Good. Still, Denard needs to show he can throw downfield with some accuracy if he is going to have consistent success running the ball.
Establish dominance up front — I should have clarified that this was pointed towards the defense. Well, the defense didn’t exactly dominate, and EMU had a fair amount of success running the ball in the first half. However, the defensive line (especially, of course, Brandon Graham) played fairly well against both the run and the pass. The linebackers, unfortunately, remain a point of major concern.
Obi Ezeh bounces back — Ezeh showed flashes against Eastern, making a few nice plays when he recognized a play early and attacked with confidence. However, there are still too many plays where he gets caught hesitating and gets taken out of the play. He took a step forward against EMU, but will have to take a few more to be the player we expect three-year starters to become.
One of the young tailbacks shows starting potential — Michael Shaw is a young Carlos Brown, if Carlos Brown managed to stay healthy. So yes, starting potential.
A cornerback besides Donovan Warren actually plays well — Eastern did not pass a whole lot, but Boubacar Cissoko looked much improved in the limited opportunities he was given to play the pass. That pass interference was just about the worst call I’ve ever seen made on a football field, and Cissoko had tremendous coverage on that play, so I was actually encouraged by a penalty. Yes, it has come to this.
At best, I can give Michigan a 2.5/5 for last week’s effort. Hopefully they’ll come out this week and show more improvement. Here are my keys to the Indiana game:
Contain Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton — The Hoosiers are by no means a good team, but they do boast two NFL-quality defensive ends in Kirlew and Middleton. Wolverine fans got a huge scare last week when Tate Forcier was slammed onto his back and stayed down on the field after the play; I’d rather not have to go through that again. The last thing Michigan needs is for Forcier to be uncomfortable in his own pocket. If Mark Ortmann and Mark Huyge (and Kevin Koger, to a lesser extent) can keep Forcier’s jersey (and bill of health) clean, Michigan should be able to pick apart the Hoosier defense.
Gel on the offensive line — With David Molk out and David Moosman returning (and moving over to center), Michigan will have to deal with a realigned offensive line for the second straight week. They responded well last week when dealing with Moosman’s absence, and hopefully will adapt just as well this week. Losing the center is tough, however, since he is the man tasked with making the calls up front, as well as shouldering the responsibility of making sure the ball gets safely to the quarterback. Moosman and Forcier will hopefully have built a solid rapport in practice this week, as Michigan has already dealt with a few fumbled snaps this season.
Re-establish a deep threat — Michigan eased Junior Hemingway back into the lineup last week, and he is now 100% according to Rich Rodriguez. It’d be nice to see Hemingway or Darryl Stonum stretch the field vertically a few times this game and keep Indiana from selling out against the run. If opponents are forced to respect Michigan’s ability to go deep, they’ll have a tough time stopping the run and not allowing a big play.
Shore up the run defense — Getting Jonas Mouton back into the lineup will help, but Michigan still has to prove that they can hold at the point of attack and stop the run consistently. The Hoosiers’ rushing attack is currently in the middle of the pack in the country (65th overall with 146.7 yards per game) despite playing a very easy schedule (Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, @Akron). The Wolverines should be able to limit Indiana on the ground, but will have to play better than what they’ve done so far this year.
Keep Brandon Minor healthy — Minor is again a game-time decision because of a high-ankle sprain. These are the kind of injuries that can linger throughout a whole season (or, in Minor’s case, seemingly an eternity). I don’t think the dropoff between Minor and Carlos Brown is enough to warrant risking Minor’s health if he is not close to 100%, while a fully-healthy Minor will provide a big-time weapon when the meat of the Big Ten season comes around. Minor was held out of practice yesterday, so I really doubt he’s close to 100% healthy. If Michigan can get away with sitting Minor and letting Brown carry the load Saturday, I think that would be the best course of action, especially with a trip to East Lansing just one week away.
It’s amazing how many question marks still surround this team (especially the defense) three weeks into the season. The D showed signs of improvement against EMU, and get a key cog back in Jonas Mouton. On offense, Michigan has established themselves as potentially one of the premier rushing teams in the country. I think that trend continues Saturday: Michigan 38, Indiana 20.
I love watching Denard run, but Michigan needs to establish him as a passing threat.
Once again, it’s time for “Five Things I Hope to See…” First, a look at back at last week’s keys:
Force the Irish to become one-dimensional — Well, not so much. Notre Dame had a ton of success through the air and on the ground, and Michigan never got a lot of pressure on Jimmy Clausen. This is certainly cause for concern (especially the Irish’s success picking on Boubacar Cissoko), but I also don’t think Michigan fill face another offense with as dangerous an aerial attack as Notre Dame.
Get pressure on Jimmy Clausen — Another miss, as Michigan didn’t record a sack on Jimmy Clausen, and the only time they recorded any pressure was when Greg Robinson brought heat. Somebody besides Brandon Graham needs to step up on the defensive line when Michigan only rushes four.
Another outside receiver steps up — Not just one, but two outside guys had very good games (Darryl Stonum and Greg Mathews), and even Laterryal Savoy had a few big catches (and the drop, but that was tipped). It look like outside receiver has gone from a big question mark to a major strong point on this team.
Michigan gets an 100-yard day out of a running back — Hello, Brandon Minor.
Utilize the bubble screen — As noted by Brian, Notre Dame brought up their corners into press coverage to stop the bubble screen, so Michigan almost completely stayed away from it. However, Rich Rodriguez actually did a great job of adjusting to this by having the tight end/H-back block the crashing DE on the zone read, and this was the cause for several of Minor’s big runs. It’s been great to watch Rodriguez stay one step ahead of opposing defenses with his schemes.
Against an opponent the quality of Notre Dame, 3/5 isn’t bad, especially when the success on offense managed to (barely) outweigh the shortcomings of the defense. Now, on to Eastern Michigan:
Establish Denard Robinson as a passing threat — We all know Shoelace can run, but thus far Michigan has almost exclusively utilized him as a rusher. Notre Dame knew Michigan wasn’t fully comfortable with him as a passer, and sold out on the run when Denard was in at QB. With an opponent the quality of EMU, Michigan now has the perfect opportunity to showcase Denard’s ability to pull up and throw the ball. I fully expect to see a lot of Shoelace on Saturday, and if he can show an ability to hit receivers while still remaining a home run threat on the ground, future opponents will have to respect the pass or risk giving up big plays through the air.
Establish dominance up front — To put it bluntly, if Eastern has a lot of success on the ground or Michigan can’t get any pressure on QB Andy Schmitt, this defense will be in a lot of trouble. Ryan Van Bergen has to show that he can hold the point of attack at DT, and if he can’t show that this game, Greg Robinson should strongly consider realigning the defensive front. This game is the perfect opportunity to experiment with different guys up front, and establish the front seven for the course of the season.
Obi Ezeh bounces back — While everybody was talking about Boubacar Cissoko’s subpar performance, Ezeh has a pretty miserable game himself, looking tentative and allowing himself to get taken out of plays as a result. If Ezeh doesn’t show he can recognize a play and attack with confidence, I’d like to see J.B. Fitzgerald get a chance at middle linebacker.
One of the young tailbacks shows starting potential — Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw should both see a lot of playing time, and one of those two will likely be the starting tailback at this time next year. Shaw showed a lot of potential last year, even while battling injuries, and Smith was the breakout star of spring practice. I would love to see one (or both) put up big numbers and show an understanding of the spread offense.
A cornerback besides Donovan Warren actually plays well — Boubacar Cissoko had a really rough game against Notre Dame, and J.T. Floyd got torched in limited action against Western Michigan. Highly touted freshman Justin Turner has not seen any game action after he made it on campus late due to academic issues. Ideally, Cissoko would bounce back and show he can play man coverage and either Turner or Floyd would show that Michigan has a viable option after Warren and Cissoko.
Hopefully, Michigan will be geared up and ready to go from the opening kickoff. Personally, I expect the team to come out fired up, and I don’t think the foot will be taken off the gas as the team tries out backups at practically every position: Michigan 52, EMU 16
"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing."
- Bo Schembechler
“I ask no man to make a sacrifice. On the contrary! We ask
him to do the opposite. To live clean, come clean, think clean.
That he stop doing all the things that destroy him physically,
mentally and morally, and begin doing all the things that make him keener, finer and more competent" - Fielding Yost
“People come up to me and say, ‘I’m sorry.’ I’m not sorry because I received the greatest thing from the University of Michigan anyone can receive: a degree.” - Zia Combs
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