John Beilein isn't the only one who can't bear to watch Michigan right now.
I’ll admit, before launching into this diatribe, that I did not watch a single minute of yesterday’s loss to Michigan State. In fairness, I was driving home from Canada for the first half, and by the time I got home — well, 14 first-half points didn’t exactly inspire me to flip on CBS instead of unpacking. It’s not hard to imagine, however, how the game played out: Michigan State completely overmatched Michigan inside, and the Wolverines couldn’t hit their shots. A quick check of the recap confirms. Now Michigan sits at 14-16, and if they can beat Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament, their season will almost certainly end against Ohio State in the next round.
John Beilein has, thus far in his Michigan career, avoided much criticism. This is in large part because, until this season, his team was progressing ahead of schedule: sometimes we have to remind ourselves that this very team made the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. This season, the controversy surrounding Rich Rodriguez and the football team has deflected a lot of attention away from the floundering basketball program. Games like yesterday’s, however, have caused Michigan fans to ask again a question we thought Beilein had answered with a resounding ‘yes’ last season: is he the right man for this job? Over at Genuinely Sarcastic, Brian takes stock of the program and finishes with a disturbing question:
Beilein, as a person, should be exactly what every Michigan fan (and every fan everywhere, really) wants as their coach. He’s a great man who refuses to bend his morals even a little bit. He refuses to delve into the filthy world of AAU coaches getting handouts, family members getting jobs, and all the other gray areas that accompany the majority of basketball recruiting. This leaves a huge chunk of recruits each year off limits to Michigan – and considering UM’s past, it has to be that way, anyway. So in that regard, Beilein has no peer. But as a gameday coach, a teacher, and from an Xs and Os standpoint – color me thoroughly underwhelmed. Dave Brandon officially starts his duties as Michigan athletic director today. It’s highly unlikely (and would probably be too hasty) that he decides to suddenly fire Beilein. But if you can’t draw conclusions about a coach after three years, you absolutely can after four, and I ask again – do you see any scenario where Michigan is substantially improved next season?
Even if Manny Harris returns, and the Wolverines land Trey Zeigler and Jon Horford, can this team overcome the loss of DeShawn Sims, the one viable post player on this team? Even Michigan fans with the most rose-tinted glasses of all will have a hard time saying yes. With Sims and Zack Gibson graduating, the Wolverines are left with just two returning redshirt freshmen bigs with huge question marks — Blake McLimans, a perimeter-oriented forward who wasn’t physically ready for Big Ten basketball this season, and Jordan Morgan, who sat out this season with a knee injury and just this week injured his shoulder. In a perfect world, neither of these guys would be forced to take on big-time minutes next season. As we keep getting reminded, this world isn’t perfect, and both will be forced into major playing time unless Evan Smotrycz and Jon Horford (assuming we have room for him and he commits) can both come in and contribute from day one.
I’m not holding my breath.
As Brian points out in his article, much of the blame for Michigan’s lack of viable big men can be placed simply on bad luck: Epke Udoh transferring was a bigger deal than anyone thought at the time, Draymond Green was wooed by Tom Izzo (and who can blame him?), Ben Cronin had a career-ending hip injury, Robin Benzing couldn’t qualify, and Morgan’s aforementioned knee injury kept him from getting valuable experience this season. This is how you end up with Zack Novak at the four.
That said, next season will be Beilein’s fourth, and there’s a very good chance we’ll be looking at consecutive losing seasons and another rebuilding project when 2010-11 is over. The pieces may be coming into place for a successful team: Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway are good prospects that fit Beilein’s system well, 2011 commit Carlton Brundidge is a blue-chip player, Darius Morris has made great progress this season, and Michigan has a shot at adding some big-time recruits. The hole in the middle can’t be fixed immediately, however, and unless this team turns into a three-point juggernaut — I’ll be kind and say this year’s performance makes that sound unlikely — we will be fielding a very flawed team next season.
Patience is key when rooting for a rebuilding program. Michigan fans are getting very used to being patient by now. But when does patience become a flaw, instead of a virtue? I wish I had the answer, but I don’t know. It’s Dave Brandon’s first day as the official athletic director, and I can’t say I envy him one bit.
It’s been a long time since I did anything on basketball recruiting, so I decided to enlist the help of Dylan, who runs the outstanding Michigan basketball blog UMHoops. The following is the second half of my Q&A with him — the first part, covering 2010 recruiting, is posted over on his blog, so make sure to head over there for the full hoops recruiting scoop. Big thanks to Dylan for taking part in this, as his basketball recruiting knowledge puts mine to shame.
2011 commit Carlton Brundidge.
TWB: Michigan needs a lot of help in the frontcourt in the next couple classes. Which 2011 prospects do you think Michigan will recruit the hardest, and who do they have a good shot at landing?
Dylan: With one top 100 guard, Southfield’s Carlton Brundidge, already in the fold it’s likely that Michigan will look to bring in some more size in the class of 2011. Some of the frequently mentioned names on the recruiting board include Amir Williams (video & scouting), Marshall Plumlee, Justin Gant, and Cody Zeller.
It’s tough to say who Michigan has the best shot at. Williams, Plumlee, and Zeller all have extensive lists of high-major suitors. Williams hasn’t even begun to narrow down his recruitment, while Plumlee’s brothers both play at Duke and Zeller’s brother is at UNC with another graduated from Notre Dame. Justin Gant on the other hand is a developing prospect from Terre Haute, Indiana but he doesn’t have a Michigan offer yet.
Depending on how the 2010 class closes out, it’s likely that Michigan will only have one, maybe two scholarships available for class of 2011 to go along with Carlton Brundidge. (Scholarship breakdown here.) More prospects will certainly emerge over the course of AAU season as well, when the 2011 class will truly begin to heat up.
TWB: Does Michigan have a shot at landing Michael Gilchrist?
Dylan: Gilchrist is the consensus #1 player in the class of 2011 and maybe the #1 player regardless of class. Just about everyone has Gilchrist penciled in to attend Kentucky because of his connection with the infamous William Wesley. Others say that he might be more likely to stay closer to home, attending Villanova (the home of another former St. Patrick’s star Corey Fisher).
Regardless of the speculation, Gilchrist continues to insist that he is interested in being recruited and is open to any and all suitors. Most recently (2/15/10), he released a list of six schools that included Michigan along with Kentucky, Villanova, Oregon, Texas, and Georgia Tech.
Gilchrist has been on an unofficial visit to Michigan and he continues to list them as one of the schools in contention, however I would certainly not get my hopes up or call them a favorite at this point.
2010 commit Evan Smotrycz.
TWB: How much do you expect 2010 commits Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway, Jr. to contribute next season?
Dylan: Depending on what Manny Harris decides to do, there are likely going to be a lot of minutes available next year. Hardaway can play the two or the three while Smotrycz seems like a likely candidate to play the four.
Hardaway has posted monster numbers in Miami this year but it’s important to remember he plays on an incredibly weak roster and is forced to do the majority of the scoring. Hardaway is averaging 30.8 points, 7.3 boards, and four assists per contest which is good no matter how you slice it.
Opposite of Hardaway, Smotrycz plays on a much deeper roster. There are numerous Division 1 players not only on Smotrycz’ team but on opposing rosters as well. I have seem some panic regarding Smotrycz seemingly lackluster scoring numbers (around 14 points per game) as well as the fact that he has struggled shooting it at times this season. The hope is definitely that we see the Smotrycz that tore up the AAU circuit this summer. Regardless of his production at New Hampton, Smotrycz provides a combination of size and skill that will be unique to next year’s roster.
2010 commit Tim Hardaway, Jr. with his father, former NBA All-Star Tim Hardaway.
TWB: John Beilein wasn’t exactly known as a recruiter when he came to Ann Arbor, but recently Michigan has received interest from some big-time prospects. Should we expect Michigan to move towards becoming more of a national recruiting presence, or do you think we’ll have more classes similar to 2008 (more “system-type” guys)?
Beilein wasn’t known as a recruiter at West Virginia and he has had to attempt to shake that stigma since he’s been in Ann Arbor. The 2008 class was created in desperation. Beilein arrived in late April and had to figure out a way to convince kids to come to Michigan in the midst of a 10-22 season. Recruiting is a relationship game and it’s tough to find kids that late in the game especially at a program that wasn’t necessarily in the rosiest condition.
Early on, Beilein finished second for guys like Klay Thompson (Wash. St.) and Joe Trapani (BC) which definitely set him back. This team would look worlds different if either of those kids were on the roster. But recruiting is a bottom line business and second isn’t good enough. Novak and Douglass were taken because Beilein needed players and since then I think Beilein has proven that he wants to recruit more talented kids.
Beilein’s classes have consistently appeared to improve talent-wise although it’s tough to judge so early. The 2009 class probably deserves an incomplete with one guy playing, one very limited, and two redshirts. The 2010 class has two nice prospects in Smotrycz and Hardaway Jr. whom are both ranked in at least one scouting service’s top 100 but will be made or lost based on how Beilein closes. Finally, the 2011 class already has top 100 guard Carlton Brundidge.
Beilein has pursued other top level recruits from Nate Lubick to Mike Gilchrist to Casey Prather. Landing them is another issue, especially if he strikes out on Trey Zeigler. It’s clear that Michigan is involved with some high profile recruits and they aren’t going for “system” guys but if Beilein can’t close out the 2010 class strong it will certainly be disappointing.
Rarely does a narrow overtime victory over a 3-10 Big Ten team inspire confidence or hope in a fan, but I’d be lying if I said that last night’s performance by Michigan didn’t have me excited, at least temporarily. It may have been Iowa, it may have been meaningless to the Big Ten standings, and maybe it shouldn’t have been that close, but I can’t be angry when I see Michigan pull out a road game in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion. With the way this season has gone, nobody would have blamed the Wolverines for letting up down the stretch, when Aaron Fuller kept making big shots and Iowa held a five-point lead with 22 seconds to play. Instead, Michigan’s big man hit some big shots of his own, and the Wolverines were able to pull out a great overtime victory on the road. The fans may have given up on this team a long time ago (I know I’ve said some things to that effect), but this team continues to fight to the bitter end. You have to tip your cap to John Beilein for that.
If you told me before the game that Michigan would hit over 50% of their threes, I would have expected a blowout victory. Instead, Michigan had to battle with an equally-scorching Iowa squad that was lighting it up from outside and riding the hot hand of Fuller (30 points and 13 rebounds) inside. This wasn’t anywhere close to Michigan’s best defensive effort, but the offense carried the day. We haven’t been able to say that much this season. While you’d certainly hope that the team would play better D, it was nice to see the team find its shooting stroke (at least from the outside).
This wasn’t DeShawn Sims’ best effort, as he struggled to hit his inside shots (10-25 from the field), but he hit the biggest shot of the game when the team ran a play specifically to get him an open jumper, and you can’t ask for much more than that from your senior leader. Sims managed to battle through the game despite not quite having it all night, and he ended up with 27 points — to me, that’s the sign of a really good player.
Manny Harris also struggled from two-point range, going 3-10 on the night, but he finished 4-7 from three (including a few pull-up shots that had every Michigan fan cringing until they went in), pulled down 10 boards, and added seven assists. When Manny was struggling to create his own shot, he was able to find open teammates and help the offense with his passing. Again, it’s great to see your stars finding ways to make the team better when they’re not having their best game — Manny managed to be effective despite not having his bread-and-butter (getting to the hoop) and made some big plays in overtime to help lift the team to victory. Yes, he had six turnovers, but Manny’s good plays offset his poor ones.
Stu Douglass started hot, hitting two early threes, but then disappeared from the stat sheet until he hit a huge three in overtime. While it’s nice to see him hit that late shot, we need more production from Douglass — three rebounds, no assists, and two turnovers is not what you want from a guy playing 42 minutes at guard.
Zack Novak put up a nice overall stat line — 3-5 from the field (all his attempts from three) for nine points, four rebounds, five assists, a steal, and no turnovers, but you can’t talk about his game last night without mentioning that he was the main guy guarding Fuller, who routinely abused Novak in the post. It’s tough to put too much of that on Novak — on any normal team, he wouldn’t be guarding power forwards — but you’d still like to see Novak hold his guy under 30.
Darius Morris has made a lot of progress in the last few weeks, but last night he was a complete nonfactor — 26 minutes, no points, 0-3 from the field, two rebounds, two assists. Games like this make you remember that he’s still a very raw, freshman point guard getting his first taste of Big Ten basketball.
Laval Lucas-Perry briefly caught fire in the first half, hitting three consecutive three-pointers to help stake the Wolverines to a nice first-half cushion (that completely disappeared by halftime). He finished with his best stat line since early January, scoring 13 points on 3-5 shooting, hitting 4-4 free throws, and adding five rebounds and two assists. I’ll never understand how LLP can have games like this and then completely disappear for a month, but it’s always nice to see him step up.
Zack Gibson finished with three blocks in just 12 minutes, but didn’t haul in a single rebound, which is somewhat unacceptable for a 6-10 college basketball player. Michigan went with Sims down the stretch, obviously, and it’s way too late in his career to complain about how limited Gibson is — at this point, he is what he is, which is a guy who can block a couple shots, eat up some minutes in the middle, and is a very inconsistent offensive player.
For more on last night’s game, check out the recap from UMHoops.
Sorry. I have a hard time thinking about last night’s game without bursting out into a stream of expletives. Up three, with a minute and a half on the clock, with the ball — even the most cynical of Michigan fans would’ve had a hard time betting on MSU at that point. If these past couple years have taught Michigan fans anything, however, it is that cynicism is the only protection against crushing disappointment.
Sonofabitch.
A couple points on the last play before I get into player breakdowns:
I was not just okay with the play drawn up at the end, but thought that was by far our best chance of getting a basket in 1.5 seconds from near midcourt. I’ve seen or heard several people say they would have rather seen Michigan get a look at a jump shot. Have you seen Michigan’s ability to hit jump shots? We shot 19-58 from the field against MSU, and 7-29 from three. We managed to get our best inside player a shot from within three feet of the basket. It didn’t fall. Barely. Of all the things to c0mplain about, the final play call is not one of them.
Yes, DeShawn Sims was probably fouled on that last play, as this screenshot from UMHoops shows. If you expect a ref to do anything but swallow his whistle on the final play of a game, however, you haven’t watched a lot of basketball — it would’ve taken a full-fledged assault to draw a foul on that play. That’s basketball. In this instance, we lost. Those are the breaks of the game. If you really want to complain about something, complain about the two airballed three-pointers in the final two minutes, when we could’ve made a last-gasp effort unnecessary.
Motherf******.
Let’s get to the good part about the game: Michigan, with a converted shooting guard and a true freshman manning the point, only turned the ball over four times. I’ve watched a lot of basketball, and don’t remember many games where a team held on to the ball that effectively.
Of course, there’s the bad part about this game (or this team, really): They can’t shoot. At all. I’d love to have an easy explanation for this, be able to say that John Beilein’s offense isn’t getting open looks, isn’t creating chances, and we could all point fingers and play the blame game. When your team goes 7-29 from three, you should be able to say that they were forcing bad shots, and this is a poorly coached team. Except it isn’t. The vast majority of those 29 attempts were good, open looks. But, just like the rest of the season (Michigan is now a stellar 29.7% from three on the year), the shots weren’t falling.
Quickly, before I give up on life, or at least sports, let’s get to the player bullets:
Even with the two late misses from DeShawn Sims, you can’t put this loss on either of Michigan’s two stars. Yes, Sims wasn’t efficient on offense, scoring 19 points on 7-18 shooting, but the Wolverines didn’t exactly have a lot of other options to go to. He hit a couple of huge threes down the stretch, and actually went 3-5 from downtown in the game. Manny Harris, after a bit of a slow start, finished with 16 points, four rebounds, five assists, five steals (!), and two blocks. After struggling on the defensive end in his last couple games, Manny came out focused and put in his best defensive effort of the season, cutting off passes like a free safety. The two stars came to play, which leaves, well, the rest of the team…
Stu Douglass just can’t get on track, and you can tell from his play that his confidence on offense is completely gone. He had a few plays where he beat his man off the dribble, but instead of going up strong for the layup, Douglass would stop and either force a pass or, in one case, travel. He accounted for three of Michigan’s four turnovers and went just 2-7 from the field (1-5 from three). Michigan’s lack of depth appears to be the only thing between Douglass and the bench — there just isn’t a reliable alternative. He’s going to have to break out of his slump at some point, or his starting spot will be in serious jeopardy when Evan Smotrycz, Tim Hardaway, and potentially Trey Zeigler hit campus next season.
I love the way Zack Novak plays — I’m not sure how many more ways I can say I like how much he hustles. This game was no different, as Novak pulled down five offensive rebounds and seemed to get a hand of half of Michigan’s (numerous) misses. However, he shot 2-9 from the field (1-7 from three), and that’s just not going to get it done.
Like Novak, Laval Lucas-Perry played a solid game if you took shooting entirely out of the equation. But, since the object of basketball is to put the ball through the basket, it’s tough to praise a starter when he puts up a goose egg on the scoreboard — LLP was 0-4 shooting, and his misses were not pretty.
The reason Douglass remains on the floor, as evidenced last night, is that Darius Morris is simply not a threat on the offensive end. Morris played just about how he’s played all season — 20 or so minutes, two points, two assists, one turnover, decent defense, no offensive impact. He had an open look at a three from the corner, and clanged it off the side of the backboard. That about sums up Morris’ offensive acumen at this point in his career. I expect him to get much better, but he just isn’t someone the defense has to account for right now.
Nobody else really got significant minutes, which is merciful, since I’m getting really sick of writing about this game. For more pain recaps, check out UMHoops, MGoBlog, and The Only Colors (an MSU blog, so you’ve been warned).
Manny Harris will return to the basketball team after a one-game suspension.
Well, it appears Michigan will actually have a chance tomorrow night against Michigan State; Manny Harris was reinstated to the basketball team by coach John Beilein today, ending Harris’ suspension at one game after an incident at practice last Friday. Harris sounded appropriately apologetic for his actions:
“I fully accept the suspension from the coaching staff,” Harris said in a statement. “It was the correct decision. I cannot tell you my disappointment for letting my teammates down and showing the lack of leadership that I normally try to provide.”
I don’t have a lot to add to this. Obviously, Manny made a decision that had a very negative impact on the team, and that is certainly disappointing. He has owned up to his mistakes, however, and I trust that John Beilein and the team have ironed things out. Since we still have no details as to what actually happened, it’s time to move forward with the knowledge that Beilein was able to handle this in-house. Even if Manny’s suspension may have cost the team a victory at Purdue, I trust that Beilein really was doing what was best for the team, and Manny himself, with the suspension. Let’s move on.
In other basketball-related news, current Michigan slot receiver and former point guard Kelvin Grady has rejoined the basketball team. Grady will contribute as a scout-team guard, and is already imitating MSU’s Kalin Lucas in preparation for tomorrow night’s game. He will make a decision at the end of the season about whether he will permanently stay with the basketball team, but Beilein said that football will remain Grady’s main athletic focus at Michigan. Regardless of his role, it’s nice to see Grady back with the hoops squad, and Michigan needs all the help they can get depth-wise. Don’t expect Grady to have much of an impact during games this season, but it will be interesting to see what he can provide to the team as a practice player and as a potential contributor moving forward.
Well, that sucked. A few thoughts on the Boston College game, before I get all sad and write depressing things:
I really thought this would be the year DeShawn Sims would put it all together and become a consistent threat, every game. After a four point, four foul performance, I’m very disappointed. Yes, he had foul trouble early, but when Peedi came off the bench for the second half, he spent most of his time hanging around the perimeter and seemed completely out of sync with the offense. I don’t know what John Beilein has to do to convince Peedi he isn’t a shooting guard, but whatever it is needs to happen.
Darius Morris simply isn’t ready. I still think he’s going to be a very good player here, but right now he’s having a very tough time running the offense, and he doesn’t have the finishing ability to make any impact on that end. Yes, he’s a much better defender than Stu Douglass, but he just isn’t giving Michigan much choice about who to play.
For longer stretches than I care to say last night, Zack Gibson was Michigan’s best player. He plays hard on both ends, hasn’t been forcing it too much on offense (which I thought was his biggest issue last year), and provides Michigan with a legitimate post presence on offense and defense. More importantly, he knows that he’s a post player, and plays like it — DeShawn would be wise to learn from Gibson.
The offense in general looked completely stagnant last night — some well-deserved comparisons to watching an Amaker offense have already popped up. Watching Manny Harris settle for contested jumpers all night — his 19-7-6 stat line doesn’t look nearly as good when you check the 7-18 on field goals, or the 1-6 on threes — was nothing short of excruciating. I’m not sure what Beilein should do to remedy this — more pick and rolls, more cuts to the basket, play Manny at the point, etc. — but it needs to change, and quick.
The loss leaves Michigan stuck at 3-3 and looking at a big uphill climb if they want to make a repeat appearance in the NCAA tournament. The Utah game looks like a must-win now, and there’s a very good chance Michigan will need a big upset over Kansas or UConn (neither of which seem at all likely) to have a legitimate resume. Throw in the hockey team’s struggles and the disastrous football team, and this may be the worst time to be a Michigan sports fan in generations.
Seriously. Just for kicks (very depressing kicks, that is) I checked through Michigan’s record books to find the last time that (1) both the basketball and hockey teams missed the NCAA tournament and (2) the football team finished with a losing record in the same academic year. The result? In 1962, the football team finished 2-7 under Bump Elliott, and the 1962-63 hockey and basketball teams missed the tournament, finishing 7-14-3 and 16-8, respectively. So, yeah, if it feels like Michigan sports have reached a new low in your lifetime, there’s a very good chance you’re right.
Michigan must find a way to slow down Joe Trapani and the Eagles.
Coming off back-to-back losses in the Old Spice Classic, Michigan is currently unranked and heading into a tough matchup against Boston College. Some fans are already touting this game as a must-win, even with the lion’s share of the season still ahead. So, is this really a game Michigan has to win? Let’s look at both sides:
Yes, this is a must-win:
A third straight loss against a beatable opponent could send this team reeling, especially without the senior leadership that C.J. Lee and David Merritt provided last season. With just one game between Boston College and a trip to Utah, there would be little time to right the ship before the Wolverines would be facing another tough challenge. With all the youth on this team, confidence is very important.
Every at-large tournament team needs a signature non-conference win. If Michigan loses to BC, then the only chances at that win remaining are on the road at Utah and Kansas and at home against UConn. It’s never easy to win on the road against a quality opponent, and it would certainly be a huge upset if Michigan were to knock off Kansas in Lawrence. UConn is a very tough matchup for Michigan themselves, boasting a lot of size and athleticism. Tonight looks to be Michigan’s best crack at a big non-conference win.
John Beilein has yet to settle on a rotation for the rest of the season, given Michigan’s struggles in the past few games. Another loss would raise further questions about playing time, and who deserves it, with only a handful of games left until the Big Ten season begins.
Are you crazy? This isn’t a must-win:
Remember last season, when Michigan dropped several “must-win” games deep into the conference schedule before getting hot and making the tournament? I don’t think Michigan fans particularly want to go through that again, but we have to remember that the tournament committee is often swayed by how well a team is playing heading into the postseason. Those December games that felt so meaningful at the time are many times quickly forgotten once the team heads into the conference slate.
Michigan still has several chances to earn that signature win. Besides Utah, Kansas, and UConn, Michigan still has a very strong Big Ten schedule to deal with, and victories over the likes of Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois would go a long way towards an NCAA tournament berth.
This team is still very young, still learning John Beilein’s system, and has a lot of games left to gel and mature. Yes, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are the clear top guys on the team and upperclassmen, but the rest of the players are still figuring out their roles as complimentary guys. Darius Morris is still a true freshman with all of five games under his belt. Same with Matt Vogrich. Stu Douglass, Zack Novak, and Laval Lucas-Perry are all in their second year in the program. Michigan is still hoping to find a third big man after Sims and Zack Gibson. These guys will get better, given time, and this team should play very different in March than they have in November and December.
Which side do I fall on? I’m leaning towards the latter argument, although a win here would give the team a huge boost heading into a tough stretch in the schedule (after a home cupcake in Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Michigan has @Utah, vs. Detroit, @Kansas in a ten-day span). Luckily for Michigan, Boston College is struggling with injuries — their leading returning scorer, Rakim Sanders, is out, senior forward Tyler Roche is questionable, and go-to guy Joe Trapani is dealing with flu symptoms, although it appears he will play tonight. I think Michigan takes this game — we can’t shoot that poorly from three all season, right?
For more on the game, check out UMHoops and MGoBlog, who both have previews up. Go Blue!
Basketball season officially starts tomorrow, which should come as a relief to Michigan fans everywhere. Before I even start diving in to my preview, I encourage you to check out UMHoops. Seriously, nobody comes close to Dylan when it comes to Michigan hoops knowledge and content among bloggers. If this means you ignore my preview entirely and just check out his site, so be it.
Alright, now that I’ve scared off most of you, I’ll kick off my preview with five predictions for the team this year, most of which will probably make me look stupid:
Manny Harris makes second-team All-American — Yes, this is going out on a limb. With Oklahoma’s Willie Warren, Kansas’ Sharron Collins, Kentucky freshman phenom John Wall, Ohio State’s Evan Turner, and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas all vying for AA honors at guard, it’s a very tough year to crack even the third team. However, if Michigan finishes the year as a top 15 team (which I think they have a very good shot at doing), it will be very hard to ignore the exploits of their best player. I expect Manny to be more efficient with his shooting this season, and with a legit post threat in DeShawn Sims, solid shooters in Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Laval Lucas-Perry (as well as freshman Matt Vogrich), and a true distributing point guard in freshman Darius Morris, defenses won’t be able to key on him as much as they did in the past two seasons. I think he can average 20 points a game without taking much away from the rest of the team, but with all of Michigan’s weapons, he’ll probably settle for 18 a game while coming close to his mark of 4.4 assists per game from last year. Throw in his 7 boards a game, and those are All-American numbers.
Michigan cracks the top 25 in tempo-free offense — I’m not going to delve too deep into tempo-free stats (check out The Only Colors’ explanation, which sums them up perfectly), but in essence they take a team’s pace out of the equation and measure how many points a team would score given the same amount of possessions per game as any other team. Last season, Michigan finished 44th in the country with 111.3 points/100 possessions. To crack last year’s top 25, they would only have to improve that number by three points, which should not be an issue for a team with another year of John Beilein’s system under its belt. A full 39.4% of Michigan’s shots last year came from beyond the three-point line (8th in the country), but they hit only 33.4% of those shots. I expect the latter number to come up significantly this year as Harris, Novak, Douglass, and LLP progress, which would push this offense easily into the top 25 in the country.
Darius Morris’ impact goes far beyond the box score – Beilein’s signature 1-3-1 defense wasn’t used a whole lot last year, as Michigan went with more of a 2-3 look, in large part to cover for the lack of size at point guard. Enter 6′4″ point guard Darius Morris, who has already made a name for himself as a solid defender who can anchor the 1-3-1. This should free up Michigan to play the kind of aggressive, turnover-forcing basketball that was Beilein’s staple at West Virginia. Add in the fact that Morris is a team-first guy who looks for teammates before his own offense, and I think he’ll be a guy who averages six points/game and four or five assists but completely opens up the game on both ends of the floor.
DeShawn Sims makes first-team All-Big Ten – Sims went through a transformation last season, going from a perimeter-oriented big man to a guy who made his living in the post. At times, he was Michigan’s best player, with his dominant 29 point outburst against Purdue in a must-win game (on 13-16 shooting, no less) opening a lot of eyes around the conference. I expect Sims to become even more comfortable in his role this year, staying on the block more instead of wandering out to the three-point line. If Michigan gives him the looks, he’ll convert more times than not (Dylan points out that he hit 55% of his two-point shots last year). With Morris and Harris looking for Peedi on the block, I fully expect him to improve on his 15.4 points per game and 50.5% field goal percentage.
Michigan locks up a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament – Yes, this means I think Michigan will finish as a top-16 team in the country, at least in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament committee. The Wolverines will have several shots at a signature win, with games against Boston College, Utah, Kansas, and UConn all looming on the non-conference schedule, a road contest at Purdue in January, and two cracks at Michigan State (at home on Jan. 26, and the season finale at the Breslin Center on March 6). I like our chances against BC and Utah, and any game at home (UConn, MSU) should give Michigan a puncher’s chance for an upset. If this team takes care of business against the teams they should beat, this is easily a 20+ win team.
Quickly, my predicted order of finish for the Big Ten, with a ten-words or less summary:
Michigan State — Just loaded. Kalin Lucas is an AA.
Purdue — Super sophs become experienced juniors.
Ohio State — Evan Turner is a beast.
Michigan — See above.
Minnesota — Return top nine scorers from tourney squad.
Illinois — Losing Frazier, Meachem and Brock hurts, but still solid.
Wisconsin — Always perform under Ryan, but losing best bigs.
Penn State — Talor Battle will have to carry the load.
Indiana — Will go as far as freshmen take them.
Northwestern — Losing Cable for 4-6 weeks kills any tourney hopes.
Iowa — This year’s Indiana, 2008.
Hoops tips off tomorrow night at 7 against D-II Northern Michigan. As always, UM Hoops has the preview, and the game will be televised on the Big Ten Network. It’s never too late to jump on the bandwagon…
Bill Martin will step down as athletic director on Sept. 4, 2010.
Whoa … sleep in late one Wednesday, and miss a big story breaking. From the Detroit News:
Michigan athletic director Bill Martin will retire Sept. 4, 2010 after a decade in that role.
Martin made the decision official Wednesday, according to University of Michigan athletic department sources. He sent a letter to U-M president Mary Sue Coleman and was to inform the athletic department at an all-staff meeting at Keen Arena.
No candidates to replace Martin have been announced yet, but Michigan now has a lengthy timetable to handpick candidates before he steps down.
Martin got a bit of a bad rep after the “sailboat incident”, but it’s tough to say he’s been anything but a great athletic director in his time at Michigan. We can credit Martin for keeping the athletic department (very) profitable in a time when few schools stay out of the red, while still managing to approve huge additions to Michigan Stadium, a practice facility for the basketball teams, and many other projects that help Michigan have the best facilities in the country across the board. He hired Rich Rodriguez and John Beilein, which to me (and many others) was knocking both coaching searches out of the park.
We’ll see what direction Mary Sue Coleman takes in the search for a new athletic director — do we stay with a businessman, or move more towards a person with a sports background (Lloyd Carr, maybe? Just throwing it out there). Regardless of who takes his place, Bill Martin will leave some big shoes to fill in Ann Arbor.
The powerful Brundidge will add a new dimension to Michigan's backcourt.
Hey, basketball news! Class of 2011 guard Carlton Brundidge, a consensus top 100 player out of Southfield High School, committed to Michigan today. Brundidge, a powerful scoring guard who stands at 6-1, ranks 98th overall on Rivals, 68th on Scout and 33rd on ESPN for the Class of 2011. Dylan over at UMHoops has a great commitment article, which also features highlights from Brundidge’s sophomore season:
Brundridge is the type of player who has no fear taking the ball to the basket, and he shows some very good finishing ability once he gets there. He also has college range (although he is a little streaky from distance), and should be a great complement to Michigan’s shooters when he gets to the basket and creates his own shot. This is a great pickup for John Beilein; Brundridge was also considering Michigan State, Miami (Fl.), and Syracuse, and this marks the first major in-state recruiting victory for Beilein. I get the feeling this won’t be the last.
"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing."
- Bo Schembechler
“I ask no man to make a sacrifice. On the contrary! We ask
him to do the opposite. To live clean, come clean, think clean.
That he stop doing all the things that destroy him physically,
mentally and morally, and begin doing all the things that make him keener, finer and more competent" - Fielding Yost
“People come up to me and say, ‘I’m sorry.’ I’m not sorry because I received the greatest thing from the University of Michigan anyone can receive: a degree.” - Zia Combs
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