Michigan has released the team injury report for the UConn game:

Out: Fitzgerald Toussaint (knee), Jared Van Slyke (clavicle), Troy Woolfolk (ankle)
Questionable: Junior Hemingway (hamstring)

The only semi-surprise on there is Hemingway, who has been plagued with injuries the past two seasons. Michigan shouldn’t be in bad shape if he isn’t healthy enough to play with Martavious Odoms and Darryl Stonum starting on the outside and Roy Roundtree and Kelvin Grady battling for snaps in the slot. Toussaint’s injury, especially if it lingers for longer than a week, might keep him from finding a spot in the rotation as Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, and Stephen Hopkins all are healthy and battling for carries.

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Michigan released its official depth chart today for the UConn game, and there are a few surprises on the two-deep for Saturday. The entire depth chart can be found at the Football Depth Chart page. Let’s start by breaking down the offense:

No surprise at quarterback, as Rich Rodriguez has said we won’t know who the starter is until kickoff; for the second straight season, we get three players all tied at the top. Devin Gardner, in Rodriguez’s words, will “probably not” redshirt this season — it looks like he has done enough in the coaches’ eyes to see the field this season and help the team. I still expect Denard Robinson to be the starter on Saturday, but we’ll probably see all three quarterbacks at some point.

Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw head up what should be a rotation of at least 3-4 running backs. Note that Teric Jones, who was recruited at running back but played in the secondary for the past year, is back at his natural position.

This is where things get a little interesting. Your starting wideouts are Darryl Stonum/Junior Hemingway and Martavious Odoms on the outside and Roy Roundtree/Kelvin Grady in the slot. This is probably a product of the depth and talent at slot receiver, especially with Grady having a breakout fall camp, and Rich Rodriguez’s subsequent attempt to get the best players on the field. The only true freshman on the depth chart, interestingly, is Jeremy Jackson — I suspect this is because he has by far the best hands out of the group, and he should be a reliable possession receiver if the team needs to use him.

The depth chart at tight ends looks exactly the same as it did last year. It will be very interesting to see how much this position factors into the offense with all the talent at receiver.

It appears that the veterans have held off the talented youngsters at tackle, as redshirt junior Mark Huyge and senior Perry Dorrestein get the nod at tackle over redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield, at least for now. They will be joined by what should be a very good interior line in left guard Stephen Schilling, center David Molk, and right guard Patrick Omameh. The depth across the board is very strong, and this should be by far the best offensive line Rich Rodriguez has had at Michigan.

I’ll have a breakdown of the defense either later today or tomorrow afternoon, and my game previews for the season will begin on Wednesday as we rapidly approach game day in Ann Arbor.

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While I’m sure we’re all still reeling from last night’s injury news, the show must go on. So far this week I’ve previewed the quarterbacks and the running backs, and now it’s time to take a look at Michigan’s outside receivers:

Returning Contributors: Junior Hemingway (RS Jr.), Je’Ron Stokes (So.), Darryl Stonum (Jr.)
Incoming Freshmen: Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson
Key Losses: Greg Mathews (graduation), LaTerryal Savoy (graduation)

Returning Player Stats:

The Projected Starters: Despite losing the dependable Greg Mathews to graduation, Michigan returns two outside receivers with starting experience in Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum. At 6-1, 225 pounds, Hemingway is a big target, and in each of the last two season openers he has shown the ability to be a solid deep threat, especially while tallying five catches for 103 yards and two scores against Western Michigan in 2009. He has struggled with injuries and consistency, however, and will need to step up his level of play this year in the absence of the sure-handed Mathews.

Stonum came into Michigan in 2008 as a blue-chip recruit, but so far the Texas native has fallen short of expectations in amassing just 27 career receptions for 275 yards and two touchdowns in 23 career games (13 starts). Early reports out of fall camp have been very positive, however, and if Stonum can put it all together he could be a breakout star in 2010. He has already shown game-breaking speed as a kick returner, and has reportedly improved his hands, route running, and ball skills since last season. If the practice reports are true, Stonum should be Michigan’s top outside threat and a player who could really stretch the field vertically.

The Competition: The Wolverines are very young at outside receiver — sophomore Je’Ron Stokes, who had two catches against Delaware State last fall, is the only backup to ever see meaningful playing time. Stokes, like Stonum, was a high four-star prospect according to Rivals.com, Though he didn’t get much of a chance to show off any skills beyond run blocking last season, Stokes is said to possess both great hands and outstanding overall athleticism, as well as the versatility to play both outside or in the slot — if he can live up to the recruiting hype, like Stonum, this could be a breakout year for Stokes.

Behind Stokes, Michigan has brought in four freshmen receivers, three of whom — Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, and Jerald Robinson — enrolled early in the spring. Robinson appears the closest to seeing the field immediately; he was a four-star to Scout and a three-star to Rivals, and has drawn praise for his hands, jump-ball skills, and ability to make a catch in traffic, though he may lack ideal top-end speed. At 6-4, 212 pounds, Miller has a college-ready body, and the only thing standing between him and significant playing time may be his inconsistency catching the football — he’s another player who can go up and get the ball, but he has to prove he can reliably catch the short to intermediate passes. Jackson, on the other hand, probably possesses the best pair of hands in the group, but his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue at this level — if he can find a way to get open, he will be a solid possession receiver, but there’s work to be done before he reaches that point. The fourth freshman, D.J. Williamson, is a high school track star (he won the Ohio Division I state title in both the 100- and 200-yard dash as a senior) who will likely redshirt. He has a lot of potential, but will have to refine his skills as a receiver before he sees the field.

It is worth noting that Michigan will likely utilize some of their slot receivers on the outside this year, as MGoBlog’s Tim Sullivan’s notes from offensive coordinator Calvin Magee’s press conference indicates:

Some slot receivers could see action on the outside. [Roy] Roundtree, [Kelvin] Grady, Terrance Robinson, and [Martavious] Odoms, could all play inside and outside. Nobody is separating at outside WR yet because they’re all so close. There will be 5-6 guys who can play both receiver positions.

Roy Roundtree especially has been discussed as a guy who could play either inside or outside, and with the bevy of young talent in the slot for Michigan he could see a lot of action on the outside this fall.

Outlook: Outside receiver is a huge wild card for the Michigan offense this fall. The talent is there to have a productive receiving corps, but the poor production from the last two seasons means the players really need to step it up on the field. For Stonum, especially, it’s now-or-never time if he wants to prove the recruiting hype was well-deserved — he could be the key to an explosive Wolverine offense if he becomes a reliable deep threat. A lot of the talent here is at least a year or two away from contributing, so the veteran receivers will have to consistently produce if Michigan wants their outside receivers to be a strength in 2010.

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Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low”,  “Guarded”, and “Elevated” threat categories, and today, we move on to the positions that fall under the “High” category. Ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seatbelts.

Outside Receiver: Simply put, Michigan just hasn’t been getting the production it needs out of its outside receivers so far in the Rodriguez era. Some of that blame can probably be placed on the quarterback play, but it’s time for guys like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway to step up, or else be replaced by younger talent. Stonum and Hemingway, your likely starters at outside receiver, combined for just 29 catches and three touchdowns last season.

Stonum, a former four-star with great athletic ability, needs to show that he can adjust to the ball in the air — he often makes what should be simple catches unnecessarily difficult on himself. If he can do that, he could break out this year and begin to live up to his lofty recruiting hype. Hemingway has burst out of the gate the past two season openers only to have his season derailed by injuries and subsequent ineffectiveness. He showed against Western Michigan that he can be a dangerous deep threat, but he’ll have to stay healthy if he wants to hold on to his starting spot.

If Stonum and Hemingway prove ineffective, there are several young players who could see the field in their place. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes is another top-100 level recruit, and he’ll likely be the third wide receiver after playing sparingly as a freshman. Jerald Robinson, Ricardo Miller, and Jeremy Jackson all enrolled early in preparation for their true freshman seasons — Robinson appears most likely to be an immediate contributor, though Miller probably has the highest ceiling and Jackson the best hands of the trio. There is also the chance that Roy Roundtree moves between the slot and outside — I’d prefer for him to work out of the slot, where he seems most effective, but if the starters aren’t producing he may be needed to shore up the position, especially with the depth at slot.

If Michigan hopes to take its offense to the next level, they will have to get more production from their outside receivers. Unfortunately, the depth behind the prospective starters is very young, and the starters have yet to prove they can consistently make plays at the collegiate level. This position is probably the biggest question mark the offense has, and could be the difference between Michigan boasting a juggernaut offense and struggling to consistently move the ball.

Linebacker: The picture to your right pretty much sums up Michigan’s linebacker play from last season — Obi Ezeh is on the ground, having been taken out of the play, and Jonas Mouton appears to have lost contain as the back breaks into the open field. Usually, a team would be very comfortable with returning two senior starters (and multi-year starters at that) at linebacker, but the lack of progression from Ezeh and the apparent regression from Mouton has left Wolverine fans very concerned with the heart of their defense.

The good news is that, despite a slight scheme change, Michigan will finally have the same man at defensive coordinator for two years in a row, and with Greg Robinson personally handling the inside linebackers, there should be improvement from the position. How much the linebackers improve will depend. Can Ezeh hold off redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens in the middle? If he does, can he show greater aggressiveness on the field? Can Mouton return to the form he showed in the latter half of 2008? There are a lot of questions here, and few answers will be given until the team hits the field in the fall.

The aforementioned Demens appears to be the most likely candidate to supplant the incumbent starters if one proved ineffective, although J.B. Fitzgerald actually saw more playing time last year when Ezeh was benched, and he could very well start if given the opportunity. Former walk-on Kevin Leach also saw action last year, but wasn’t particularly effective when he played. Redshirt freshman Isaiah Bell provides depth, but he’ll likely need a year or two of learning the position after coming to Ann Arbor as a safety.

With a strong front four and a shaky secondary, Michigan’s defense will need the linebackers to elevate their level of play in 2010. As fifth-year seniors, Ezeh and Mouton should be up to the task, but you could have said the same thing about them last year. Their experience keeps me from placing the linebackers in the “Severe” category, but they will need to step up their play on the field in a big way, or the defense could be spinning its wheels instead of moving forward from last season’s debacle.

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I had the privilege of attending Michigan’s first spring practice yesterday, along with Rich Rodriguez’s press conference. Before I get into my quick analysis of the presser and practice, I should make note of one thing: the media access to practice was limited to a 12-minute period when the team was split into position groups and doing drills. Between trying to get some decent photos and trying to decipher which drill I should be paying attention to (not to mention trying to figure out, with my complete lack of football-playing background, if players were actually doing the drills correctly), it was hard to glean much information of note from the actual practice. In fact, I really only took one thing away from the practice session itself, a point I’ll bring up later. I think I can speak for pretty much all the media in attendance when I say not to put a whole lot of stock into what you read about this spring practice — again, we saw 12 minutes of drills with the team split into position groups and spread across two football fields. Just making a note of that before I go into what I saw, and heard, yesterday.

With that out of the way, I’ll break down the one thing of note I saw and post some pictures, as well as give some highlights from the presser and new numbers/weights from the spankin’ new official spring roster.

THE THING OF NOTE

When I realized that I had no hope of seeing or understanding even 10% of what was happening in practice, I turned my focus to the quarterbacks and watched them go through a few drills. It didn’t take a Lombardian knowledge of football to see who will be the clear-cut starter for Michigan next season: Tate Forcier simply threw the best ball of any of the quarterbacks, and it wasn’t close. We all knew he would be the most accurate quarterback, but the zip he put on his throws also was very impressive — it’s safe to say his shoulder has healed up just fine.

Tell me something I don’t already know, you say. Well, for one, Devin Gardner’s mechanics have definitely improved since the end of his senior season at Inkster — he is releasing the ball at a much higher point than in any of his highlight videos from high school. Watching him throw, however, you can tell that he’s still really thinking about the mechanics of throwing, and his accuracy just isn’t at the level he’d need it to be to seriously challenge for playing time. Now, all of the drills we were able to see involved the quarterback throwing from the pocket, so we didn’t get to see Gardner show off his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but after watching Gardner today I’d be very surprised if he got extended playing time unless Forcier goes down with an injury. It looks like he could really use a redshirt year to get his mechanics to the point where his throwing motion comes naturally to him, as well as to learn the offense.

As for Denard Robinson, he also had some struggles with accuracy, especially on deep passes. Rich Rodriguez was with the quarterbacks during the drills that we watched, and kept harping on the quarterbacks to “drop the ball in the bucket” — in other words, to put a lot of air under the ball so it “drops” into the receiver’s hands. Gardner and Robinson had their struggles with that concept, and both quarterbacks also missed a few intermediate throws that you’d hope they will hit once the spring game, and obviously the fall, comes around. The good news is that both quarterbacks, as well as Forcier, did well hitting tailbacks in stride when they practiced swing passes out of the backfield. That may seem trivial, but those passes are an important part of this offense, and hitting a running back in stride can be the difference between a big gain and a backwards lateral (think Notre Dame, 2008).

RICH ROD’S PRESSER

I’ll keep this rather brief, as Tim has already posted a very thorough rundown over at MGoBlog, but here are some of the highlights from Rodriguez’s pre-practice press conference:

• Vincent Smith and David Molk are both out for the spring with knee injuries, but Rodriguez said they were progressing well in rehab and expected them to do “limited activities” by the end of spring ball.
• Rodriguez said he expected to “do some different things with Denard,” since he thought a player with Robinson’s athletic and football abilities shouldn’t be spending too much time on the bench. He also clarified that Denard would likely be seeing those extra snaps at receiver, since the Wolverines already have a lot of bodies at running back.
• Nick Sheridan will not be playing this season — he is finishing up school and preparing for a career in coaching. It sounds like he’ll be a graduate assistant at some point, but Sheridan can’t be a GA right now since he’s finishing up his undergraduate degree. He was hanging around practice in street clothes, however. Bryan Wright will also not be using his final season of eligibility, citing back problems as the reason to end his playing career.
• There will be an emphasis on playing more people on defense this season, now that there is a healthy amount of competition at pretty much every position. Rodriguez said Greg Robinson will be working on keeping his schemes relatively simple so the plethora of freshmen competing for spots can contribute immediately.
• Both Troy Woolfolk and Justin Turner are practicing at cornerback, but Rodriguez did say there was a possibility of either player also seeing time at safety.

NEW SPRING ROSTER

MGoBlog also has a breakdown of the weight changes in the new spring roster, so I won’t go into too much detail here either, but I thought I’d mention these interesting points:

• When asked if any players stood out for their offseason condition, Rodriguez cited a trio of redshirt freshmen linemen: Quinton Washington, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. Washington dropped an impressive amount of weight, going from 325 down to 307, while Lewan (283, up from 268) and Schofield (281, also up from 268) each added some needed pounds. Washington slimming down should immediately put him in the running for a starting role, while Lewan and Schofield probably still need to add a couple pounds (certainly possible before the fall) before they’re in that same discussion.
• There were gains pretty much across the board on both sides of the ball. Junior Hemingway is now a very robust 227 pounds — I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or not until we see him running full speed. Forcier gained six pounds, up to 194, which hopefully will protect him a little bit more from injury. On defense, Will Campbell is now up to 324 pounds, and he certainly passed the eye test — the guy is a physical specimen now and is worlds away from how he looked when he enrolled as a freshman. Craig Roh also added weight, and at 249 pounds he is now in the discussion at defensive end, a spot he was far too light for last season (Rodriguez specifically stated that Roh could see snaps at DE in the presser).
• Forcier still is wearing 5, even though I saw some rumors floating around that he would be switching to 4, his high school number. Instead, Cameron Gordon has taken that number, as he has switched officially over to safety. Teric Jones has also moved to safety, and Brandin Hawthorne is listed at the position as well — with Michigan slightly tweaking their defense, I’m pretty sure Stevie Brown’s position was reclassified from linebacker to safety, although I could be wrong there. If that is in fact true, it looks like that position battle will come down to Hawthorne, Mike Williams, and possibly Jordan Kovacs. Isaiah Bell is now up to 237 pounds and is listed at linebacker, as is Mike Jones, despite being only 207 right now.

FRESHMAN NUMBERS [end_columns]

PHOTOS

If you want to see more photos from today’s practice, I put up an album over on photobucket. They’re mostly of the quarterbacks, since that’s who I was watching for most of the time. If you want to see why Devin Gardner is such an intriguing prospect, check out the last photo: he just towers over everybody else.

That’s all I have for now. I’ll be updating the projected depth chart by the end of this weekend to reflect any changes in position or number. Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day (in a safe but enjoyable fashion, I hope).

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With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).

Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.

[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]

At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.

Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.

Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.

Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen.  I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.

Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.

Similar Posts:

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• An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense
• Early Guess at the Football Depth Chart: Now Updated for Spring
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There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

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It’s time for this week’s edition of Five Things… first, a look back at last week’s keys:

1. No more Turnover Tate — Two more fumbles for Tate Forcier, with one going over to Purdue. His ball-security issues are clearly something that will have to be addressed in the offseason — for all his ability to create plays scrambling, his fumbling problems negate a lot of the positives he brings to the team.
2. Feed Brandon Minor — Minor was a force, carrying the ball 19 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, now he’s banged up again, so we’ll see if he can match that workload against Wisconsin. Cross your fingers, Wolverines.
3. Don’t break — 38 points 494 yards of offense allowed on 7.3 yards per play. Um, that’s broken, defense.
4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — In a way, we did — like much of this season, Elliott produced big numbers but mitigated some of his production with two interceptions. However, when you give up 367 yards and two touchdowns passing and can’t get a stop when holding on to a lead, you don’t get a pass. Sorry.
5. Play with an edge — I will give the team this one. They played damn hard. The effort was there, but the execution fell short.

Well, we tried, and Brandon Minor had the kind of game that makes you wonder how we would’ve done if he was healthy all year. Before I pull out the remaining hair on my head, let’s move on to Wisconsin:

1. Convert in the red zone — Michigan is pathetic 107th in the country in red zone offense, scoring just 71% of the time they’re inside the 20. Wisconsin, on the other hand, scores on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The Wolverine defense is going to allow Wisconsin some red zone chances, and in all likelihood, they will convert. Michigan has shown they can move the ball on anybody on offense, but they will have to match the Badgers’ red zone scores if they want to keep up. That means no back-breaking turnovers, Tate. Yes, I’m basically recycling the same game keys here, but the same issues keep coming up.
2. Feed Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown — See? I told you the same issues keep coming up. In this case, I think Michigan will have to establish, and keep establishing, the run game if they want to win this one. Wisconsin will be doing their best to wear down the defense by pounding them with John Clay on the interior — I’m fully expecting to see some painfully long marches down the field by the Badgers. If healthy, Minor is Michigan’s best counter to this — he’s the one running back who has shown an ability to consistently produce between the tackles. If Minor is out or limited, Carlos Brown will have to do his best Minor impression, and hopefully will be fed enough to break a big run or two. Either way, the offense will be relying on their senior backs to match Wisconsin’s smashmouth style.
3. Take advantage of Wisconsin’s special teams — The Badgers are 66th in the country in net punting (35.51 yards/punt) and 116th in kick return defense (25.59 yards/return). Junior Hemingway, when he’s not putting the ball on the ground, showed the ability to break a big punt return against Purdue. Darryl Stonum has established himself to the point where he seems liable to break a kick return on every touch. Field position will be at a premium against Wisconsin, and between the returns and Zoltan Mesko’s ability to pin the opponent deep, I think Michigan has a golden opportunity to take hold of the field position battle.
4. Linebackers, stay disciplined — Michigan has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup, each change triggered by a back-breaking mistake (just look at MGoBlog’s defensive UFR if you doubt me on this). I can somewhat understand the limitations of Obi Ezeh (three-star running back coming out of high school) and Kevin Leach (walk-on), but the fact that Jonas Mouton continually makes horrendous mental errors is a lot less acceptable. I don’t want to attempt to count the number of times he’s allowed a quarterback or running back to get outside of him — when that’s his only responsibility — but that has to end. Keep John Clay inside, and feed him into the line and middle backer (whoever it is). Please.
5. Play desperate — Let’s be honest: If Michigan wants to make a bowl game, this is the time to step up and get a victory. Wisconsin is a hell of a lot more beatable than Ohio State, regardless of what you think of Terrelle Pryor’s development (or lack of). The coaching staff, and players, can’t hold anything back on this one. Even though this shouldn’t be (and isn’t) the case, I want to see Rich Rodriguez coaching this game like his job depends on it. Bust out trick plays, throw in a new wrinkle on offense we haven’t seen, play Brandon Graham at fullback — whatever it takes, do it.

No prediction this week: Michigan keeps letting me down every time I expect a bounce-back performance, and I’m sick of predicting losses. Right now, it’s about watching for progress, especially on defense. I wonder if “Let’s Go Progress” will catch on as a chant… No? OK, I’ll shut up now. Go Blue.

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Before I start on the keys to the Purdue game, I guess I’m obligated to go over the ones for last week. Ugh.

1. Run, run, run — Yes, Michigan ran 43 times, so I guess they literally ran, ran, ran. However, 2.6 yards per carry and four misses from the one-yard line puts this squarely in the “fail” column.
2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I guess this should have been “Keep the Illini off the board late,” since Illinois scored 31 of their 38 points in the second half. I guess this is a pass.
3. Show me something, safeties — Congratulations to Mike Williams for somehow amassing an incredible -12 on Brian’s UFR, thanks to his complete inability to keep contain on Juice Williams and blowing a couple coverages to boot. In other news, Jordan Kovacs remains a freshman walk-on who is physically unsuited to play deep safety. The safeties did manage to show me something — unfortunately, that something was “disaster”.
4. Get the outside receivers involved — Final totals: Mathews — 3 catches, 34 yards; Hemingway — 2 catches, 87 yards; Savoy — 1 catch, 7 yards. Hemingway’s numbers are helped immensely by a 66-yard bomb caught when the team was already down 31-13. The team still is not getting much production whatsoever from the outside guys.
5. Just go for it — I was hoping Rich Rod would open up the offense and take some shots. Instead, we didn’t see any deep passes until after Illinois had built a sizeable lead. The obnoxious part was that the deep passes worked. We can’t win even when we win.

Alright, now allow me to never talk about that game again (or at least any time in the near future). On to Purdue!

1. No more Turnover Tate — I hope Tate Forcier was instructed to walk around campus this entire week with a football tucked firmly between his elbow and his chest, Mike Hart-style. His carelessness with the ball has taken more potential points off the board than I care to think about. I love how the kid plays, and I want to see him keep being aggressive and trying to make things happen, but ball security is Priority 1A. I can forgive a freshman interception. I have a lot tougher time letting it go when he fumbles while holding the ball like a pigskin lunchpail.
2. Feed Brandon Minor — With proclamations that Brandon Minor is getting healthier coupled with the news that Carlos Brown is battling tendinitis in his knee, Michigan should get Minor a lot of touches this weekend. Add in the fact that Purdue boasts the 88th-best rushing defense in the country, and it’d be inexcusable (barring injury) for Minor not to get at least 20 carries tomorrow. He has proven time and again that, when healthy, he is a force to be reckoned with. [Insert played-out "Minor needs to be Major" pun here]
3. Don’t break — Yes, the whole “bend but don’t break” defense thing is a totally overused cliche, but at this point, bending is really the best we can hope for from Michigan’s defense. If the offense can keep from turning the ball over, the defense may need to make only a couple timely stops (and maybe force a turnover for the first time in four games) and hold a couple red zone possessions to field goals for this team to get a much-needed victory.
4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — Yes, Elliott has 17 total touchdowns this year (14 pass, 3 rush), but he’s also thrown 11 picks. Get in the guy’s grill (I’m looking at you, Brandon Graham), and even our sorry secondary could be on the receiving end of some gift interceptions. I’d like to see Greg Robinson get aggressive early — if our safeties can’t guard anyone, you might as well see if you can get to the quarterback before he has the time to exploit them.
5. Play with an edge — This team has shown the ability to play with a chip on their shoulder — they looked ready to take down all comers after the Freep scandal threatened to destroy the 2009 season before it ever began. Last week, this team looked just about ready to quit on Rich Rodriguez. With the stakes now higher than ever, how will the team respond? They’ve battled through adversity once already, and it’s time to do it again.

I might feel like an idiot (won’t be the first time) for making this prediction, but for some reason, I’m confident that this team can will its way to a victory before all of southeast Michigan reaches for the pitchforks. I think Tate will look like the kid we saw in the first four games, Brandon Minor will run angry, and the defense will do just enough (and I mean just enough) to secure a bowl-clinching victory: Michigan 36, Purdue 33.

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I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:

1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
2. Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
3. Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
5. Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.

Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:

1. Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
3. Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
4. Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
5. Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.

It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.

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