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An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Offense

Junior Michael Shaw will be part of a heated competition to start at tailback.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).

PositionNo.PlayerHeightWeightEligibility
QB5Tate Forcier6-1188So.
16Denard Robinson6-0185So.
-Devin Gardner6-4195Fr.
-Conelius Jones6-2197Fr.

Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.

[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]

At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
RB2Vincent Smith5-6168So.
or20Michael Shaw6-0178Jr.
28Fitzgerald Toussaint5-9185RS Fr.
or15Michael Cox6-0208RS So.
19Kelvin Grady5-9168RS Jr.
-Austin White6-0186Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
FB44Mark Moundros6-1233RS Sr.
-Stephen Hopkins6-0235Fr.

Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
X22Darryl Stonum6-2196Jr.
6Je'Ron Stokes6-0181So.
-Jerald Robinson6-2175Fr.
-D.J. Williamson6-1172Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
Y21Junior Hemingway6-1220RS Jr.
-Ricardo Miller6-2208Fr.
or84Cameron Gordon6-2208RS Fr.
-Jeremy Jackson6-3194Fr.

Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
Z12Roy Roundtree6-0170RS So.
or9Martavious Odoms5-9172Jr.
10Jeremy Gallon5-8165RS Fr.
7Terrence Robinson5-9171RS So.
14Teric Jones5-8193So.
-Drew Dileo5-10175Fr.

Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
TE86Kevin Koger6-4249Jr.
80Martell Webb6-4245Sr.
88Brandon Moore6-6243RS So.

Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen.  I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
LT65Patrick Omameh6-4276RS So.
77Taylor Lewan6-7268RS Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
LG52Stephen Schilling6-5304RS Sr.
56Ricky Barnum6-2275RS So.
57Elliott Mealer6-6299RS So.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
C50David Molk6-2275RS Jr.
63Rocko Khoury6-5283RS So.
-Christian Pace6-3262Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
RG72Mark Huyge6-6288RS Jr.
or76Quinton Washington6-3325RS Fr.
74John Ferrara6-4279RS Sr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
RT79Perry Dorrestein6-7306RS Sr.
75Michael Schofield6-6268RS Fr.

Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
PK34Brendan Gibbons6-0229RS Fr.
97Scott Schrimscher5-10188RS Jr.
43Bryan Wright6-1217RS Sr.

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Wolverines on the Web is All Manny, All the Time

Manny Harris has reacted well to being disciplined in the past.

Manny Harris has reacted well to being disciplined in the past.

Even with a huge game against rival Michigan State looming tonight, much of the blogosphere’s attention is still on Manny Harris’ suspension, what it means for the team, and the apparent lack of leadership on this Michigan squad. Reactions to Harris’ suspension covered the spectrum of negative emotions, from anger and disgust to disappointment and resignation. Here are a few of the reactions (some coming before the suspension was lifted yesterday, for the record).

UMHoops:

Putting aside whether the suspension was warranted or not, there is a bigger issue here. The fact that Harris did something in practice that warranted suspension.

It’s been a tough couple weeks for Harris. He has been struggled for long stretches, played poor defense, and has just looked lost and out of sorts at times. Some pointed to his lingering hamstring injury but I think it was more the effects of frustrating season, personally and for this team. His struggles peaked versus Wisconsin in what was easily one of his worst games this season.

Harris’s frustration likely reached its boiling point during whatever incident occurred in Friday’s practice. At this point, the key is to figure out how to move on post-incident.

Dylan also points out that Manny has played very well after being disciplined in the past, scoring 28 points, grabbing seven rebounds, and dishing six assists against Penn State after being ejected from the Purdue game and posting 27, 7 and 6 after being benched against Iowa last year.

Burgeoning Wolverine Star:

Beilein is going to have a press conference in about 20 minutes and will likely answer all of the speculation I’m about to throw into the Internet, but man, this sounds like an open insubordination/”I’m the star” kind of suspension to me. From the sound of it, he did something that attacked the team, rather than punching someone or personally attacking one player/coach.

This is another reason I’ve been kind of down on Harris this year: He just doesn’t look like he cares. He seems to be biding his time before he declares for the NBA (which will be at the end of this year). But with his performance this year, and this suspension now on the national radar, dude is seriously hurting his NBA stock.

Maize n Brew:

That’s why this whole thing makes so little sense to me. Michigan wasn’t a top 20 team going into this season. But they were a tournament bubble team. Their wins over Ohio State and Penn State, as well as their dominating until the last five minutes performances against Wisconsin and Northwestern show that this is a capable team. There’s plenty of talent, just not a lot of size. Irrespective of either, Michigan just hasn’t played as a team this season. No one’s stepped up to lead the squad. No one has shouldered the responsibility of being the guy. Not just early in the game, but late when discipline and control matter. Harris may be Michigan’s best player, but he’s made more mental mistakes at critical times already this season than he made all of last year. The biggest by far, was the mistake that got him suspended. Leaders don’t make mistakes like that.

Now that we’ve gotten the latest depressing basketball development out of the way, let’s move on to football (hooray!). The Wolverine has posted their best early guess for the spring depth chart, which is worth checking out for curiosity’s sake. Interesting note: the coaches have changed the depth chart to show two starting slot receivers, with no starting tight ends. I expect Michigan fans will be very split on this. I like any move that gets Martavious Odoms and Roy Roundtree on the field at the same time, as they’re two of our best weapons on offense. However, I also think Kevin Koger has a lot of talent, and would like to see him continue to get ample playing time, and I think there’s a definite place for the tight end position in the spread offense. Keep an eye on this situation as we head into spring ball.

Michigan secured another commitment for the class of 2010, snake-oiling DE/DT Jibreel Black (3* Rivals, 4* Scout) from Cincinnati. Black is a great pickup for Michigan, and a guy who projects to either the three-technique DT spot (Ryan Van Bergen’s position) or defensive end. MGoBlog has your full rundown on Black.

The Other Brian, over at Genuinely Sarcastic, picks up on the ESPN story on Elliott Mealer and his family, who have developed a special connection with Rich Rodriguez and his staff in the wake of the tragic car accident involving the Mealers on Christmas Eve, 2007. It’s great to see the video of Elliott’s brother Brock learning to walk again with Mike Barwis at his side. A great story, and one that hasn’t received enough attention with all the negative press surrounding Rodriguez and Michigan.

Finally, MVictors gives us another Bo story that shows just how awesome and well-respected he was, stemming from a case involving ex-Wolverine Garland Rivers and illegal contact with an agent. Just click over there, since to give context I’d have to block-quote the whole story. Moral of the story: Don’t ever cross Bo.

On that note, make sure to tune in to the game tonight, whether live at Crisler or on TV. Go Blue!

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A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Offense

Roy Roundtree looks like he will be an integral part of the 2010 offense.

Roy Roundtree looks like he will be an integral part of the 2010 offense.

There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Completions-Attempts (%)YardsYards/AttemptTouchdownsInterceptionsEfficiencyRush AttemptsRush YardsRush TDs
Tate Forcier165-281 (58.7%)20507.31310128.151182403
Denard Robinson14-31 (45.2%)1886.12491.59693515

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

AttemptsYardsAverageRush TDsReceptionsYardsRec. TDs
Vincent Smith482765.8110822
Michael Shaw421854.42250
Mike Cox131138.721110

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDsLong
Junior Hemingway1626816.8266
Darryl Stonum1319915.3160
Je'Ron Stokes2168.009

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDsLong
Roy Roundtree3243413.6376
Martavious Odoms2227212.4135
Kelvin Grady1010210.2138

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDsLong
Kevin Koger1622013.8241
Martell Webb44411.0128
Brandon Moore111.001

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

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Observations on the Iowa Game

Unlike most of this season, Michigan did a very good job in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Unlike most of this season, Michigan did a very good job in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Well, yeah, we lost this game, but there was actually a lot of good that came out of the 30-28 loss to Iowa. Here a some obsvervations from the game:

  • Everybody else seems to have weighed in, so here’s my two cents on Rodriguez’s call to put Denard Robinson back in the game on the final drive: At the time, I couldn’t believe it, and on a final drive I don’t think a team should trot a player out there who causes heart attacks every time he throws downfield. It’s not just that Robinson isn’t very accurate yet; he’s never played in that situation, and he doesn’t have the arm to make up for poor decisions the way Forcier does. Yes, it turns out Forcier was concussed, and the point is moot now, but I just had a bad feeling from the moment Denard took the field. Again, just my opinion.
  • The defense put in one hell of an effort, given the five (five!) Michigan turnovers on the day. The Wolverines held Iowa to just 5.1 yards per play, allowed just 34 rushing yards, scored a touchdown (albeit a gift from Ricky Stanzi, but still), AND managed a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter. If you told me they would play that well before the game, I’d have a hard time not picking Michigan to win.
  • The offense, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Seven of the team’s 13 drives stalled after picking up ten yards or less, and the turnovers were so killer because almost all of them were completely unforced.
  • Donovan Warren and Brandon Graham simply had monster games. I’ll never understand why Stanzi threw at Warren’s side of the field so much — he was just blanketing the Iowa receivers — but at least Stanzi had a choice to stay away from Warren. BG was blowing plays up, whether they were runs or passes, and basically lived in the Hawkeye backfield all night. These two guys are what is holding this defense together.
  • Troy Woolfolk was a pleasant surprise at cornerback. He appeared to play quite well, and possesses the feel for the game that Boubacar Cissoko is lacking right now and the athleticism that J.T. Floyd just doesn’t have. Unfortunately, Mike Williams totally blew his assignment on a couple of Iowa’s touchdowns, and now we’ll have to see if the secondary gets realigned again or if the coaches will simply try to bang it into Williams’ head that he has to be the last man back at all times.
  • The linebackers finally put together a complete game (at least until Brian puts out his UFR and anything I have to say here is completely mitigated). Stevie Brown clearly should have been a linebacker since day one — he made a huge play on the goal-line stand, has been a really solid tackler, and gets to plays very quickly. Ezeh and Mouton both raised their play from earlier this season — you simply don’t hold a team to 34 yards rushing if your linebackers aren’t having good games. Hopefully they can keep it up for the rest of the season.
  • Huge day for the offensive line. They were opening up huge holes for the run game (which netted 195 yards on 4.3 yards per carry) and protected Forcier and Robinson very well when they dropped back (no sacks given up). Even though I think Iowa’s defense is a little overrated, that was still a big performance against a very tough defensive front. Also, nice to see Moosman snapping the ball much better — I don’t recall a single bad snap.
  • It’s tough to really comment too much on the offense. Tate had a rough, rough game. He’s still a freshman, and we have to expect those kind of performances to happen every once in a while. He’s still one of the best true freshmen quarterbacks in recent memory. Denard got thrown into a really tough spot, had one great drive, and then threw a killer pick. He’ll learn from that as well. Minor’s fumble was the one turnover that shocked me — as a senior, you have to protect the ball in that situation, especially when the run was going nowhere to begin with.
  • OK, I lied. Mathews’ turnover was also a stunner — he’s back there for one reason, and that’s to catch the ball. If you have to go to your knees to field a punt inside the ten, just let it go.
  • Is any outside receiver going to step up on this team? Martavious Odoms and Kevin Koger continue to deliver week-in and week-out, and the outside guys continue to pull disappearing acts. This week, Stonum, Mathews, Hemingway (and Savoy, if you want to count him, since he saw a few snaps) combined for two catches and 16 yards. I realize Forcier often looks to his underneath guys first, but that’s still paltry production from a group of guys with too much talent and experience to be invisible like that.

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The Road Frustratingly Travelled

denard
Well, we’re here, and here is just about exactly where we expected to be before season. 4-2, alternating between flashes of brilliance and moments of sheer ineptitude, with an offense that isn’t quite clicking and a defense that is making do with a walk-on at safety and a revolving door at cornerback. This is what we expected, and after last season meeting expectation is exactly what this program needs.

It is the route taken here, however, that has proved frustrating. One overtime period and one ill-advised toss into the Iowa secondary gone different, and we may be looking at a Michigan team that, however undeserving, is 6-0 heading into a guaranteed victory and then a showdown against Penn State. Instead, the overwhelming feeling is one of disappointment. Disappointment in Tate Forcier, who finally, finally, looked like a true freshman in over his head. Disappointment in Denard Robinson, who had Martavious Odoms open in the flat and instead chucked a bomb to … Iowa’s safety. Disappointment in Rich Rodriguez, who chose the “spark” of Robinson over the track record of Forcier. Disappointment in a team that handed Iowa five turnovers while constantly standing on the doorstep, unable to simply turn the knob and let themselves in.

However, we are here, and here, in general, is a good thing. 4-2, soon to be 5-2 after beating up a hapless FCS opponent, is a good thing, as was the victory over Notre Dame and the rise of Tate Forcier and the expansion of Rich Rodriguez’s offense and the overall competence of this team that was completely lacking in 2008. We knew, after last season, that the road back to powerhouse would be filled with twists and turns and bumps and bruises and as many cliches as one can possibly pack into the road metaphor. We felt the high early on, when the euphoria of the Notre Dame win left us drunk with new expectations. We’re now at one of the lows, and 7-5 looks more and more like the logical end-point of this regular season.

We are here. We just have to accept that we are.

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Observations from the Notre Dame Game

The crowd came decked out in maize, and the block M looked great.

The crowd came decked out in maize, and the block M looked great.

I just finished re-watching the whole game, and have a few thoughts:

  • The defense did not get enough pressure on Jimmy Clausen, but I don’t think you can blame Brandon Graham for that. When there was pressure on Clausen, chances were BG was involved. After a third quarter pressure on Clausen that forced a throw away, Graham can be seen on the sidelines yelling: “They don’t want to f— with me.” No, they don’t, BG. I doubt there’s a player in the country more deserving of a sack right now than #55.
  • I could not have been more wrong about Greg Mathews: the guy really came to play, and he was busting his ass on every snap. His first-quarter one-handed catch was tremendous, he came up with several clutch grabs (including the winning touchdown, of course), and if you want to question his effort, take one more look at Forcier’s interception. Mathews goes from being the targeted wideout to chasing down Kyle McCarthy 20 yards downfield and making a very solid effort to strip the ball.
  • Speaking of outside receivers, how about Darryl Stonum? There’s another guy who put it all on the line, and he did it all Saturday: The electrifying kickoff return, four big catches for 54 yards, and batting Forcier’s pooch punt to make sure it didn’t go into the end zone. Stonum really showed his athleticism off on the kickoff return TD; not a lot of guys could make a cut like that and get back to full speed in a split second. This might be the game people look back on as Stonum’s coming out party.
  • The crowd was a huge factor. By my count, Clausen used three timeouts with the play clock nearing zero (including ND’s second timeout of the second half with 13:04 left in the fourth quarter) and was guilty of two delay of games as a direct result of the noise level. It was LOUD.
  • The tackling is much-improved from where it was last year. Despite Notre Dame gashing Michigan with the run and the pass, when Wolverine defenders got their hands on Irish players, they tended to go down. There were only a couple critical missed tackles (Boubacar Cissoko’s missed tackle on Golden Tate’s late TD comes to mind), and there were several tough takedowns in the open field that saved big gains or scores.
  • Two guys on offense really stood out to me for their receiving and blocking: Kevin Koger and Martavious Odoms. Koger had a crushing block on Brandon Minor’s run down to the one-yard line in the third quarter (where Michigan’s drive eventually stalled), make a great play hauling in a touchdown pass, and was wide open when Forcier missed him on third down late in the fourth quarter. Odoms had two critical catches on the final drive, and looked good blocking downfield.
  • Stevie Brown sure has been a pleasant surprise, hasn’t he? Brown helped cause the fumble by Jonas Grey that really swung momentum back to Michigan after Olesnavage missed the short field goal, and his speed is really a factor on defense now that he doesn’t have to keep the entire offense in front of him.
  • Finally, nothing summed up the Charlie Weis era at Notre Dame better than this: after the game, as the officials were running up the tunnel, Weis tried to chase them down to start complaining about the clock. He made it three steps before giving up, then pointed towards the tunnel and sent a couple assistants scurrying after the officials. I don’t even need to crack a joke after that.

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Five Things I Hope to See: Notre Dame

Greg Mathews will need to step up against Notre Dame.

Greg Mathews will need to step up against Notre Dame.

It’s time for another round of “Five Things I Hope to See…”. How did Michigan do last week? Believe it or not, quite freakin’ well:

  1. Minimal turnovers from the quarterbacks — I believe zero qualifies as ‘minimal’.
  2. Solid play from the starting corners — Besides a couple overzealous plays resulting in pass interference calls, Donovan Warren had a great game, and Boubacar Cissoko was very solid before leaving the game early with an injury. So, check.
  3. An outside receiver steps up — Hello, Junior Hemingway.
  4. Michigan gets pressure on Tim Hiller — The Wolverines only recorded two sacks, but were constantly hounding Hiller, forcing several rushed throws and a couple interceptions. Check.
  5. The offense opens up — Compared to last year, this absolutely happened. The added screen element to the zone read is a huge addition to the offense, and the team’s knowledge of the offense is miles ahead of where it was last year.

So, yeah, five out of five isn’t too shabby. However, Notre Dame poses a much more formidable challenge. What does Michigan need to do to take down the Fighting Irish?

  1. Force the Irish to become one-dimensional — Despite having a ton of success through the air against Nevada (the worst team in the country against the pass last year), Notre Dame only managed 4.3 yards per carry on 41 attempts in their opening game. Granted, some of that came while killing clock, but the greater point remains: Michigan has the ability to shut down the Irish run game, and if they do so, the Wolverines can focus on avoiding the big play and getting pressure on Jimmy Clausen. Speaking of which…
  2. Get pressure on Jimmy Clausen — Duh, I know, but this will be huge for Michigan. Anyone who watched the highlights from the Nevada game saw what Clausen can do when he has the time to set his feet and step into a throw; the guy has deadly accuracy and receivers that will get open. However, Clausen has not done well when facing pressure in his career; he has a tendency to get happy feet in the pocket and make poor decisions when the defense is bearing down on him. Notre Dame will almost certainly be doubling Brandon Graham at every opportunity, so Craig Roh, Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and the linebackers will be charged with getting to Clausen and forcing him to keep one eye on his protection.
  3. Another outside receiver steps up — Unfortunately, it looks as if Michigan will be without the services of Junior Hemingway, who emerged against Western as Tate Forcier’s favorite target on the outside but is questionable/doubtful (depending on which Rich Rodriguez quote you look at) due to an ankle injury. Greg Mathews had a quiet game, catching two passes for 18 yards, and Darryl Stonum was all but invisible while not recording a single catch. One of those guys is going to have to produce against Notre Dame if Michigan hopes to consistently move the ball through the air. It’d be nice to see Stonum have a big game, as he is more of a deep threat than Mathews, but he’d need to show us something we haven’t seen from him before in his thus-far disappointing Michigan career.
  4. Michigan gets an 100-yard day out of a running back — It looks like Michigan will be unleashing Brandon Minor after he sat out the WMU game with a bum ankle. That could be huge, as Notre Dame looks susceptible up the middle, and Minor is the Michigan back most suitable for crashing between the tackles 20 times in a game. Carlos Brown looked good last week, and should get the starting nod while splitting carries with Minor. If one of those guys ends up cracking the century mark, I like Michigan’s chances.
  5. Utilize the bubble screen — Notre Dame DC Jon Tenuta is known for bringing a lot of heat via the blitz, which could either completely disrupt Michigan’s zone read or open up the field for big plays. The screen option on the zone read was wide open several times last week, and if Notre Dame is bringing extra guys off the edge, Michigan should have a lot of space available on the outside. If Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson can make the correct read and get Kelvin Grady or Martavious Odoms the ball in space, we could see some game-changing plays off the zone read screen.

The more I look at this game, the more I think Michigan has a really good chance of pulling the upset. Obviously, Warren and Cissoko need to have strong games against Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, but if that happens, Michigan suddenly has a decided advantage against Notre Dame. This one is going to be close, potentially decided by a field goal, a broken play, or a single turnover. I picked Michigan to beat Notre Dame before the season, and I see no reason to change that opinion after a first game that far surpassed my expectations. Michigan 34, Notre Dame 28.

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This Is The Greatest Thing I’ve Seen All Week

Via MGoBlog:

I will add this: my reaction was very similar to that of the old alumni. In a good way, of course.

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Five Hopeful Predictions for 2009

Craig Roh could make an immediate impact at the 'quick' position.

Craig Roh could make an immediate impact at the 'quick' position.

With football season a mere two weeks away, it’s about time to start making some predictions. Today, I will make five optimistic predictions for Michigan’s season. Next week (I’m taking a brief vacation this weekend) I’ll hit you with the other side of the coin, making five more pessimistic predictions. On with the show!

  1. Michigan upsets a top 15 team — By my count, there are four squads that Michigan could face that would be ranked in the top 15: Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Iowa. Of those, Michigan gets the two toughest (PSU and OSU) at home. By the time they play any of those teams, Michigan should have an established starting quarterback and a decent comfort level with both the offense and defense. Personally, I think our best chance is against Iowa (as stated earlier on this blog, I think they’re overrated), but, last season aside, we own Penn State, and boy are we ever due for an upset against the Buckeyes. I like Michigan’s chances of taking at least one of those games.
  2. Tate Forcier completes 60% of his passes — Boy, could this one make me look stupid, but between his performance in the Spring Game and fall practices, I’m pushing for the driver’s seat on the Tate Forcier bandwagon. Accuracy is probably his best attribute, and Rich Rodriguez’s bubble screens and quick passes should help bolster Forcier’s completion percentage while he gets comfortable at the college level. No, Forcier doesn’t have an elite NFL talent like Braylon Edwards at receiver, like Chad Henne did as a freshman, but he is surrounded by a lot of serviceable weapons (Minor, Brown, Mathews, Hemingway, Odoms, Gallon, Grady, Smith, etc.), which should help ease his transition.
  3. Craig Roh records at least five sacks — Not a whole lot is known about Roh’s role at this point, as he wasn’t one of the early enrollees from this year’s freshman class. However, he is a pass-rushing demon who seems like the perfect fit at the ‘quick’ position, especially as a situational pass rusher. His size (listed at 6-4, 238 on the official roster) is far too small to play DE in Greg Robinson’s system, but he should have no problem rushing from a two-point stance off the edge.
  4. Kelvin Grady catches at least 20 passes — This sounds a bit bold, to say the least, since only Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews had more than 20 receptions last year, and Grady spent the last two years on the hardwood, not the gridiron. However, Grady has impressed in fall camp, and from what I’ve seen of him he has a very impressive set of hands to go along with the speed and quickness we all witnessed while he played point guard for John Beilein. He could be very dangerous in the open field, and should be one of several players (including Odoms, obviously, as well as Jeremy Gallon, Roy Roundtree, and maybe Terrence Robinson) to see significant time in the slot. I’d love to see what he can do with a well-executed bubble screen; he could be a home-run threat for the Michigan offense.
  5. As a team, Michigan averages over 5 yards per carry — The Wolverines’ offensive line will be much-improved from last season (they have to be, right?), and with Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, and Michael Shaw all returning (plus the arrival of freshman Vincent Smith, a spring standout), Michigan should improve markedly on their 3.9 yards per carry average from last season. Don’t forget that Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running the quarterback keepers instead of Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Plus, with a full year under Rich Rodriguez’s offense, Michigan should be ready to bust out some trickery this season, and we should see more big runs from a team whose longest run in 2008 came from the plodding Threet (58 yards against Wisconsin). All this adds up to at least a one-yard improvement per run this season.

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Five Things To Look For: Fall Practice

Can Darryl Stonum realize his potential in 2009?

Can Darryl Stonum realize his potential in 2009?

Fall practice begins today (actually, it began about an hour-and-a-half ago), and there are a ton of unanswered questions when it comes to the Michigan football team. Here are five things I’m keeping a close eye on as fall practice progresses:

  1. The quarterback situation — Well, duh. All eyes will be on Tate Forcier as practice begins, and they should be: he holds the key to Michigan’s success this season. However, I’m just as interested in the backup quarterback situation. If Denard Robinson comes in and establishes himself as the backup, I’ll be pleased. If Nick Sheridan still holds the backup spot when fall practice ends, I’ll be very concerned. It’s as simple as that. Also, we’ll see how many specific packages (if any) are designed specifically for Robinson.
  2. Which receivers emerge? — Besides Greg Mathews and Martavious Odoms, there really isn’t a receiver on the roster who is guaranteed anything in terms of playing time, and even those two will have to battle for their starting spots. Will Junior Hemingway bounce back from a season lost to injury and illness? Who, out of Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, LaTerryal Savoy, and Je’Ron Stokes, will step up and take the second starting spot on the outside? Can Terrence Robinson or Jeremy Gallon make an immediate impact in the slot? Hopefully, all these questions will be answered by the time Michigan takes the field on Sept. 5.
  3. The safeties — The scariest position group on the team right now (for Michigan fans) is at safety, where currently a true freshman (Vlad Emilien) and a converted corner (Troy Woolfolk) are slated to start. No matter what, the Wolverines will have two first-time starters in the last line of defense. If the news out of fall is anything but great regarding the safety play, there is much reason for consternation about the defense.
  4. Impact freshmen — I’ve already mentioned Stokes, Gallon, and Emilien as freshmen who could contribute immediately. Will Campbell will almost certainly see significant playing time at the thin defensive tackle spot. Tailback Vincent Smith had a very strong spring and is vying for playing time in a crowded backfield. Will players like Craig Roh (quick), Fitzgerald Toussaint (tailback), or Justin Turner (DB, assuming he qualifies) push for playing time as well?
  5. Stevie Brown — The much-maligned safety is now at the spinner (LB/S hybrid) position, and could be the key to a successful defense. Fans could not be pleased with his performance in the spring game, as he was undressed by David Cone, of all people, giving up a 40-yard run to a quarterback whose 40 time is on the wrong side of five seconds. Will this be the season he finally stops giving up big plays and performs at the high level he was expected to play at two years ago?

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