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An Early Stab at the 2010 Depth Chart: Defense

Senior Troy Woolfolk could start at either cornerback or safety.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Yesterday, I took a look at the offense. Today, it’s the defense’s turn.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Defensive Line: Despite the loss of Brandon Graham, the defensive line should be the best unit for the Michigan defense in 2010. The key will be the development of sophomore Will Campbell, who has the size and talent to be a very good nose tackle. With Campbell eating space in the middle, junior Mike Martin can slide over the DT position played by Ryan Van Bergen last season, which is more suitable for a player of his size and skill set. Van Bergen, a natural end, should have no problem moving to Graham’s vacated DE spot. Throw in a full offseason of weight training for sophomore Craig Roh, who started at the Quick position last season despite not enrolling early, and a unit that was noticeably undersized in 2009 should be athletic and big in 2010. As for the backups, redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota will be a player to watch at defensive end, while senior Renaldo Sagesse will likely be the primary backup at both tackle positions. There is a lot of talent among the incoming freshmen, but the rotation could be tough to crack for players who are a little undersized (Wilkins, Black, Talbott) or out of shape (Ash, who is rumored to currently weigh over 300 pounds). Seniors Adam Patterson and Greg Banks will provide depth, but given their careers to date, I wouldn’t expect much more than that from them.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
DE53Ryan Van Bergen6-6271RS Jr.
90Anthony LaLota6-4256RS Fr.
99Adam Patterson6-3263RS Sr.
-Ken Wilkins6-3244Fr.
-Jibreel Black6-2253Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
NT73Will Campbell6-5318So.
95Renaldo Sagesse6-4279Sr.
-Richard Ash6-4263Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
DT68Mike Martin6-2292Jr.
92Greg Banks6-4266RS Sr.
-Terry Talbott6-4255Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
Quick88Craig Roh6-4238So.
58Brandon Herron6-2220RS Jr.
81Steve Watson6-4257RS Jr.
-Davion Rogers6-6210Fr.
-Jordan Paskorz6-3225Fr.

Linebacker: Michigan has a lot of experience at linebacker, but you could say the same about last year’s disappointing unit. Seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are your prohibitive favorites to start in the middle and on the weak side, respectively, but their underwhelming performances last season have opened up an opportunity for younger players to earn a starting role. Junior J.B. Fitzgerald saw playing time last season when Ezeh was benched, and with another season of experience he probably has the best shot at unseating one of the senior linebackers, although athletic redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens and former walk-on Kevin Leach will also compete for snaps. The position battle to watch may be over at spinner, where the graduation of Stevie Brown has opened a starting spot. Second-year players Isaiah Bell, Brandin Hawthorne, and Mike Jones all practiced at spinner last year, and all three should get an opportunity to see a lot of playing time in 2010 (although Bell might have grown into the WLB spot — he’s got 15-20 pounds on Hawthorne and Jones). I haven’t seen any of the three since last spring, but I like Hawthorne — the only one of the three to play linebacker in high school, and a great athlete — as the favorite for the spinner position. Of the true freshmen, Josh Furman probably has the best shot of earning playing time, also at the spinner position, while we can expect Antonio Kinard and Jake Ryan to redshirt in 2010.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
MLB45Obi Ezeh6-2243RS Sr.
or42J.B. Fitzgerald6-3232Jr.
25Kenny Demens6-1236RS So.
-Jake Ryan6-3220Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
WLB8Jonas Mouton6-2228RS Sr.
26Isaiah Bell6-1220RS Fr.
or52Kevin Leach6-1206RS Jr.
-Antonio Kinard6-4210Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
Spinner7Brandin Hawthorne6-0198RS Fr.
or27Mike Jones6-2203So.
-Josh Furman6-2194Fr.

Secondary: This is where things get crazy. The only guarantee for Michigan’s 2010 secondary is that Troy Woolfolk will start — only we don’t know whether he’ll be starting at cornerback or safety. I think Woolfolk will end up at safety for a couple reasons: (1) the safeties have to make pre-snap checks, something that I trust a senior to do much more than a freshman and (2) cornerback is a much easier position to come in and play immediately as a freshman. I expect Woolfolk to start at strong safety (the deep safety in Michigan’s defense) alongside redshirt freshman Vlad Emilien — a player some thought should have seen the field in 2009 — at free safety. True freshmen Marvin Robinson and Carvin Johnson, redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon, redshirt sophomore Jordan Kovacs and junior Mike Williams will also compete for a spot at safety, but I think Emilien will ultimately win the job (in this case, it might be an advantage to have not played last year).

At corner, I expect redshirt freshman J.T. Turner — one of the highest-rated prospects Michigan brought in last year and a standout on the scout team — to start, and true freshman Demar Dorsey is too talented to keep off the field next season. True freshmen Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott, as well as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, will also compete for playing time, but I think the pure talent of Turner and Dorsey will be a lot to overcome. If you’re keeping score, that means I think Michigan will start a senior, two redshirt freshmen, and a true freshman in their secondary next year. The talent level and the experience are both scary, but in very different senses of the word.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
CB2J.T. Turner6-2187RS Fr.
-Cullen Christian6-0180Fr.
18James Rogers6-1182Sr.
-Courtney Avery5-10165Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
CB-Demar Dorsey6-1175Fr.
12J.T. Floyd6-0183RS So.
or-Terrence Talbott5-10172Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
FS5Vlad Emilien6-1198RS Fr.
-Marvin Robinson6-1190Fr.
or32Jordan Kovacs5-10194RS So.
or40Mike Williams5-11188RS Jr.
-Ray Vinopal5-10178Fr.
PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
SS29Troy Woolfolk6-0193Sr.
15Thomas Gordon5-11205RS Fr.
or-Carvin Johnson6-0185Fr.

Punter: True freshman and Army All-American Will Hagerup will have the first shot at the vacated punter position, and I expect he’ll be the guy to take over from the immortal Zoltan Mesko. Kickoff specialist Bryan Wright has a big leg and could be called upon to handle punting duties if, for some reason, Hagerup doesn’t win the job.

PositionNo.NameHeightWeightEligibility
P-Will Hagerup6-4215Fr.
43Bryan Wright6-1217RS Sr.

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Brandon Smith Transferring, and Another Look at the 2010 Defense

LB/Safety Brandon Smith will likely transfer from Michigan, according to MGoBlog.

LB/Safety Brandon Smith will likely transfer from Michigan, according to MGoBlog.

Cue up your angriest/most emo music (my personal choice right now is John Lennon/Plastic Ono Band — scream therapy helps): MGoBlog is reporting that LB/safety Brandon Smith has received his transfer papers and is looking for another football program. In a bubble, this move isn’t a disaster — Smith has yet show the ability that made him a four-star safety in 2006, and bounced between positions a couple times in 2009. However, coupled with Michigan’s razor-thin depth at both linebacker and safety, as well as the news that Donovan Warren will likely transfer, this is simply not good for the Wolverines.

Warren’s near-imminent departure for the NFL leaves Michigan in a real bind at defensive back — the safeties desperately need help, but moving Troy Woolfolk back there would leave two huge holes to fill at cornerback. At this point, I fully expect Woolfolk to start alongside J.T. Floyd or one of the true freshmen (with Cullen Christian being the highest-rated commit so far and the most likely to contribute when he steps on campus), while Justin Turner will likely get a chance to start at safety across from, well, someone. It may be early to give up on Mike Williams, another former four-star safety who has only had one year of starting experience, but his dismal 2009 performance makes it tough for me to get my hopes up about him. I think Michigan fans can all agree that starting Jordan Kovacs puts severe limitations on how good the defense can be — if the defense has any chance of being better, there needs to be a scholarship player at each safety spot. That leaves Vlad Emilien and possibly Thomas Gordon competing for starting roles.

It is very, very early to take a stab at the starting defensive backfield for next year, but if I had to wager a guess, I’d say it will be Woolfolk (CB), Christian (CB), Turner (S), and Emilien (S) — that’s a senior, a true freshman, a redshirt freshman, and Emilien, whose eligibility is listed as either redshirt freshman or sophomore (he did get some playing time on special teams, but I’m not sure if it was enough to burn his redshirt) depending on where you look. Either way, that’s a very inexperienced secondary, and one that is missing the elite talent (Warren) that it had in 2009.

So, brace yourselves: the 2010 defense is as frightening (for Michigan fans) on paper as the 2009 D was, and Michigan will almost certainly be relying on freshmen to hold the secondary together. I don’t think much of this is his fault, but Rich Rodriguez is going to have a hell of an uphill climb to hold on to his job. Ugh.

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A (Very) Early Look at the 2010 Defense

Please don't change your mind. Please.

Please don't change your mind. Please.

Yesterday I took my (very) early look at the 2010 offense. Today, we take a look at the dark side of the moon defense, which should return nine starters from a unit that, well, stunk in 2009. [Note: I will be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010. For example, Donovan Warren will be referred to as a senior.]

Defensive End: Might as well get this out of the way — Brandon Graham will be sorely missed, no matter how good his replacements are. It’s tough to replace 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss with three guys (which may be what Michigan tries to do), let alone expecting just one player to step and come close to replicating that type of production. Michigan does return starter Ryan Van Bergen, who put up a solid season and could slide over into Graham’s vacated spot. He’s got the size to hold down the strong side of the line, and his five sacks show he has the ability to get to the quarterback. The other DE spot is very much up for grabs — Greg Banks and Adam Patterson are both redshirt seniors who have failed to make much of an impact in their four years in the program, while redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota was an Army All-American who could vault ahead of both seniors based on his prodigious talent. Incoming freshman Ken Wilkins has the frame to be a DE down the road, but at 6-4, 244, he’ll probably take a redshirt year. The hybrid LB/DE spot has a lot fewer questions, as Craig Roh came in the fall and locked down the starting role as a true freshman. If he adds some bulk, he could become a real force as a pass-rusher and speedy playmaker on the edge. Junior Brandon Herron will return as his backup, and incoming freshman Jordan Paskorz will provide depth, although he will likely redshirt as well given the returning players at the positon.

SoloAssistsTacklesTFL-YardsSacks-YardsForced FumblesFumble Recoveries
Ryan Van Bergen2020406.5-445.0-401
Craig Roh1720377.5-222.0-12
Brandon Herron713201.0-21
Will Heininger28100.5-30.5-3
Steve Watson4151.0-2
Greg Banks3251.0-6
Adam Patterson11

Defensive Tackle: There’s a lot of promise at DT for the Wolverines, with talented junior Mike Martin returning along with senior Renaldo Sagesse and sophomore (and former five-star recruit) Will Campbell. Martin struggled a bit as he adapted to playing the nose tackle in Greg Robinson’s hybrid defense, but was still one of the Wolverines’ most consistent performers on defense. Both Sagesse and Campbell showed solid improvement as the season wore on, and should get solid playing time in 2010. One possibility that has been thrown around by Michigan fans is for Martin to slide over to Van Bergen’s position, with Van Bergen taking Graham’s DE spot and Sagesse or Campbell taking over at nose tackle. If Sagesse or Campbell can hold their ground at nose tackle, I like this possibility, as it frees up Martin to be more of a threat to penetrate into the backfield (something he did with regularity as a freshman) and gives Michigan more size up front to stop the running game. We’ll have to wait until the spring, at the earliest, to see if this is an option. Michigan has also secured a commitment from DT Terry Talbott, but at 6-4, 255, he’ll probably take a redshirt year to add some weight before he sees the field.

SoloAssistsTacklesTFL-YardsSacks-YardsForced FumblesFumble Recoveries
Mike Martin2031518.5-262.0-81
Renaldo Sagesse2682.0-6
Will Campbell2241.0-1

Linebacker: If it wasn’t for the safeties, no position group would scare me as much as the linebackers (and it’s pretty close, anyway). Stevie Brown, who turned into Michigan’s most consistent linebacker in 2009, is gone from the weakside spot, leaving seniors Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton as the Wolverines’ returning starters. Ezeh and Mouton both took steps back this fall, struggling to the point of being benched multiple times in the latter half of the season. The Wolverines will need to see more aggressiveness from Ezeh, more discipline from Mouton, and a better understanding of Robinson’s schemes from both if the defense is going to improve substantially next year. Both will face competition, as redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Kevin Leach and juniors J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens all saw the field last season. Fitzgerald, a former four-star recruit, has the best change to take one of the middle linebacker spots, but don’t sleep on Demens, who saw limited action but is an athletic freak who could emerge as an upperclassman. The competition is even more open for Brown’s old spot, with sophomore Brandin Hawthorne and redshirt freshmen Isaiah Bell and Mike Jones all in the mix, potentially joined by redshirt sophomore Brandon Smith, who bounced between linebacker and safety but looks more promising (in my opinion) as a linebacker candidate. The bad news for Michigan is this position group played very poorly in 2009, and loses their best player. The good news is that there are a lot of talented players vying for just three spots. Hopefully some spirited competition, as well as a year of experience under Robinson, will fuel some better play in 2010.

SoloAssistsTacklesTFL-YardsSacks-YardsInt-YardsPass BreakupsFFFR
Obi Ezeh2742695.0-8211
Jonas Mouton2640663.0-72-621
Kevin Leach1333461.0-91.0-91-0
J.B. Fitzgerald106164.0-8
Brandon Smith86140.5-2
Kenny Demens257
Mike Jones213

Cornerback: Despite losing Boubacar Cissoko, and having a revolving door at the second cornerback spot all season, this group actually looks like it will have a lot of depth next season. Senior Donovan Warren has said that he will return next season (he will ask the NFL about his draft status, but unless he gets told he’ll be a first-rounder, he’ll likely be back), giving Michigan a lock-down cornerback on one side of the field. The status of the other corner spot will be determined by senior Troy Woolfolk, and specifically whether he’ll stay at corner or return to safety. If he does stay at corner, he’ll be the man opposite Warren, and his solid performance in 2009 — despite being moved from safety mid-season — gives Michigan a chance to have two very dependable cornerbacks in 2010. Redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd will be back, and should provide depth or potentially start if Woolfolk is a safety, and sophomore Teric Jones should improve with a full year at cornerback under his belt. Redshirt freshman Justin Turner is the big wild card here — the highly-touted prospect was being hailed as the next great Wolverine corner before academic issues forced a redshirt. He could see the field — and start — at either corner or safety, depending on need and his ability to adapt to the college game. Michigan also has commitments from three cornerback prospects — Courtney Avery, Terrence Talbott, and Adrian Witty (who qualified after sitting out last season and enroll in January) — and are the favorites for Rivals100 prospect Cullen Christian (who will announce his decision tonight) and three-star Tony Grimes. Senior James Rodgers, who has bounced around between receiver and defensive back his whole career, will also provide depth. That’s a lot of bodies at corner, so we could (and probably will) see at least one player switch over to safety. It feels strange to say this, but I’m actually confident that the cornerbacks will be a strong point of the defense in 2010.

SoloAssistTacklesInt-YardsPass Breakups
Donovan Warren4323664-427
Troy Woolfolk3016461
J.T. Floyd143171
Teric Jones617
James Rodgers617

Safety: Oh, boy. This position was a total disaster in 2009, with Michigan trying everything from a freshman walk-on (Jordan Kovacs) to a safety-turned-linebacker-turned-safety (Brandon Smith) to just playing Donovan Warren in a deep half from the cornerback position. Michigan does return both starters, Kovacs and Mike Williams, but neither player’s job is remotely safe. Redshirt freshman Vladimir Emilien will have a shot at the starting job, and Woolfolk would be almost guaranteed a spot if he moved over. Justin Turner is also a possibility, as well as Brandon Smith and J.T. Floyd, and even redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon and walk-ons Floyd Simmons and Jared Van Slyke. In fact, you may have a shot as well. It’s that open. I’d be crazy to even begin to guess who will be playing safety when Michigan opens against UConn next fall, so the conjecture ends here. This position group could be anything from the unmitigated disaster it was in 2009 to passably competent, and anywhere in between.

SoloAssistsTacklesTFL-YardsInt-YardsPass BreakupsFFFR
Jordan Kovacs3936754.5-101-02
Mike Williams2432561.0-21
Floyd Simmons4151.0-41
Jared Van Slyke1121.0-11

Outlook: Well, the defense certainly can’t be worse than this year’s. Losing Graham will hurt tremendously, but expected improvement across the board for the rest of the defense should mean that this team will be better in 2010. How much better will depend on a wild variety of factors, especially the personnel at linebacker and in the secondary — it’s far too early to guess, and as we found out this year, even the best guesses can be horribly, horribly wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.

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Five Things I’d Like to See: Purdue

With a (relatively) healthy Brandon Minor ready to go, Michigan needs to feed him the ball.

With a (relatively) healthy Brandon Minor ready to go, Michigan needs to feed him the ball.

Before I start on the keys to the Purdue game, I guess I’m obligated to go over the ones for last week. Ugh.

  1. Run, run, run — Yes, Michigan ran 43 times, so I guess they literally ran, ran, ran. However, 2.6 yards per carry and four misses from the one-yard line puts this squarely in the “fail” column.
  2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I guess this should have been “Keep the Illini off the board late,” since Illinois scored 31 of their 38 points in the second half. I guess this is a pass.
  3. Show me something, safeties — Congratulations to Mike Williams for somehow amassing an incredible -12 on Brian’s UFR, thanks to his complete inability to keep contain on Juice Williams and blowing a couple coverages to boot. In other news, Jordan Kovacs remains a freshman walk-on who is physically unsuited to play deep safety. The safeties did manage to show me something — unfortunately, that something was “disaster”.
  4. Get the outside receivers involved — Final totals: Mathews — 3 catches, 34 yards; Hemingway — 2 catches, 87 yards; Savoy — 1 catch, 7 yards. Hemingway’s numbers are helped immensely by a 66-yard bomb caught when the team was already down 31-13. The team still is not getting much production whatsoever from the outside guys.
  5. Just go for it — I was hoping Rich Rod would open up the offense and take some shots. Instead, we didn’t see any deep passes until after Illinois had built a sizeable lead. The obnoxious part was that the deep passes worked. We can’t win even when we win.

Alright, now allow me to never talk about that game again (or at least any time in the near future). On to Purdue!

  1. No more Turnover Tate — I hope Tate Forcier was instructed to walk around campus this entire week with a football tucked firmly between his elbow and his chest, Mike Hart-style. His carelessness with the ball has taken more potential points off the board than I care to think about. I love how the kid plays, and I want to see him keep being aggressive and trying to make things happen, but ball security is Priority 1A. I can forgive a freshman interception. I have a lot tougher time letting it go when he fumbles while holding the ball like a pigskin lunchpail.
  2. Feed Brandon Minor — With proclamations that Brandon Minor is getting healthier coupled with the news that Carlos Brown is battling tendinitis in his knee, Michigan should get Minor a lot of touches this weekend. Add in the fact that Purdue boasts the 88th-best rushing defense in the country, and it’d be inexcusable (barring injury) for Minor not to get at least 20 carries tomorrow. He has proven time and again that, when healthy, he is a force to be reckoned with. [Insert played-out "Minor needs to be Major" pun here]
  3. Don’t break — Yes, the whole “bend but don’t break” defense thing is a totally overused cliche, but at this point, bending is really the best we can hope for from Michigan’s defense. If the offense can keep from turning the ball over, the defense may need to make only a couple timely stops (and maybe force a turnover for the first time in four games) and hold a couple red zone possessions to field goals for this team to get a much-needed victory.
  4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — Yes, Elliott has 17 total touchdowns this year (14 pass, 3 rush), but he’s also thrown 11 picks. Get in the guy’s grill (I’m looking at you, Brandon Graham), and even our sorry secondary could be on the receiving end of some gift interceptions. I’d like to see Greg Robinson get aggressive early — if our safeties can’t guard anyone, you might as well see if you can get to the quarterback before he has the time to exploit them.
  5. Play with an edge — This team has shown the ability to play with a chip on their shoulder — they looked ready to take down all comers after the Freep scandal threatened to destroy the 2009 season before it ever began. Last week, this team looked just about ready to quit on Rich Rodriguez. With the stakes now higher than ever, how will the team respond? They’ve battled through adversity once already, and it’s time to do it again.

I might feel like an idiot (won’t be the first time) for making this prediction, but for some reason, I’m confident that this team can will its way to a victory before all of southeast Michigan reaches for the pitchforks. I think Tate will look like the kid we saw in the first four games, Brandon Minor will run angry, and the defense will do just enough (and I mean just enough) to secure a bowl-clinching victory: Michigan 36, Purdue 33.

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Five Things I Hope to See: Illinois

Kovacs, and whoever else plays safety, needs to keep the ball in front of them.

Jordan Kovacs, and whoever else plays safety, needs to keep the ball in front of them.

I hate to even do this, but before I hit the keys for Saturday, it’s time to look back at last week’s game:

  1. Get pressure on Darryl Clark — Michigan recorded two sacks against Clark, and the defense actually did a solid job of getting in his face most of the afternoon. The breakdowns in pass defense don’t fall on the shoulders of the defensive line, just the linebackers and secondary (and possibly the coaches as well).
  2. Make a big play in the return game — Didn’t happen. Even with Carlos Brown returning kickoffs, the team couldn’t muster a return longer than 26 yards on a day when the offense desperately needed the good field position.
  3. Punch it in — Two scores (one TD, one FG) in four red zone chances is simply not going to cut it against a team as good as Penn State.
  4. Slow down the pass rush — Penn State sacked Forcier five times, and Michigan got nothing going in the screen game.
  5. Get off the field — Michigan didn’t do terribly on third down, limiting Penn State to 5 conversions on 15 chances, but it wasn’t exactly a stellar effort, either. The Wolverines put forth a strong effort early, giving the offense several chances to make it a game, but fell apart late. The first touchdown of the second half came on a 3rd and 9 from the 11-yard line, and Penn State converted three third-downs on their last drive to really milk the clock before hitting a field goal.

Well, that was ugly — at best, Michigan gets a 2/5 on the day. Let’s move on to Illinois:

  1. Run, run, run — Michigan still has the 9th best rush offense in the country, and Illinois’ run defense gives up over 185 yards per game (101st nationally). The Wolverines need to get back to doing what they do best on offense — running the zone read successfully and basing everything else on that success. I expect to see a lot of touches for Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, and expect a 100-yard day out of at least one of them.
  2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I’m sure Illinois will be very geared up for an opportunity to knock off Michigan for their first FBS victory of the season, especially at home in a late afternoon game on Halloween. Michigan couldn’t stop their offense last year, so if Illinois scores early, it may just give them the confidence to play far above their level of play so far this year. If the Wolverines can stop the Illini early, and maybe force them to switch up quarterbacks a couple times, it’s likely that Illinois will play like the 113th-best scoring offense in the country.
  3. Show me something, safeties — Michigan has spent the last several weeks unsuccessfully trying to mask the weakness at safety, even going so far as to essentially turn Donovan Warren into a deep cover guy last week while subbing Boubacar Cissoko in for Mike Williams (and moving Troy Woolfolk back to safety) on third downs. With Cissoko gone, Michigan doesn’t have that option anymore, so Williams and Jordan Kovacs will have to show a better ability to keep the play in front of them and play their assignment. If the safeties can’t improve from their disastrous performance last weekend, it could be a long day for Michigan’s defense.
  4. Get the outside receivers involved — No Michigan outside receiver has more than 15 catches (Greg Mathews, and seven of those came last week), and both Junior Hemingway and Darryl Stonum have essentially disappeared as the season has wore on. Hemingway practiced this week and should be good to go after that scary collision with Warren last week. Tate needs to get the ball to these guys — the whole point of the spread offense is to spread the field vertically and horizontally (duh). Without any threat from the outside guys, the vertical threat becomes moot, and the offense bogs down. I’d like to see at least five catches out of one of the outside receivers, and for all three to get involved in the offense.
  5. Just go for it — This game is a must-win for Rich Rodriguez and his staff at this point. Illinois is so bad that a loss would be catastrophic for his public perception, and a sign that the 4-0 start was a whole lot of luck. I’d like to see the coaching staff pulling no punches on this one — empty the bag of tricks, go for it on fourth down, fake a punt, slip an onsides kick in there somewhere, whatever it takes to give this team a spark. If the team loses while sitting back, I’ll go bananas. Please don’t make me go bananas.

It’s about time for a victory, and if Michigan doesn’t get one here, I don’t know where they’re going to find one. Michigan 34, Illinois 17.

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S.O.S. (Save Our Secondary)

Will Troy Woolfolk have to be Michigan's #1 corner next season?

Will Troy Woolfolk have to be Michigan's #1 corner next season?

As any Michigan fan who has watched during the 2009 season can attest, the secondary has been somewhat awful. The statistics agree: Michigan is 96th in the country in pass defense (246.5 yards allowed per game), and although some of that can be attributed to poor linebacker play, the onus falls squarely on the shoulders of defensive backs not named Donovan Warren. Greg Robinson has tried three different players at the second corner spot, and of those players, one has a tenuous hold on a spot on the team (Boubacar Cissoko), one doesn’t appear to be athletic enough to guard MAC wide receivers (J.T. Floyd), and the third was a safety until last week (Troy Woolfolk, who actually had a decent game against Iowa).

The secondary is a huge concern for this season, for obvious reasons: they’re not very good, still making major personnel changes, starting a walk-on at safety, etc. However, take a look at this (the depth chart by year for this season, with a big assist from MGoBlog), keeping next season in mind:

Position2010 CommitmentsFreshmanSophomoreJuniorSenior
CornerbackCourtney Avery (ATH)J.T. Floyd
Justin Turner
Teric Jones
Boubacar CissokoDonovan Warren
SafetyMarvin RobinsonJordan Kovacs
Vladimir Emilien
Thomas Gordon
Mike WilliamsTroy Woolfolk

Now take Donovan Warren out of that picture, as in all likelihood he’ll be playing on Sundays next season.

freakout
Best case scenario for 2010: Warren stays, allowing Woolfolk to develop into a solid #2 cornerback. Justin Turner turns out to be the stud defensive back we expected him to be when he committed. Boubacar Cissoko gets his act together academically and on the field. Mike Williams learns how to properly cover the deep middle in a Cover 3. Vlad Emilien or Marvin Robinson supplants Jordan Kovacs and spends much of the season terrorizing opposing backfields. Michigan gains commitments from Cullen Christian (very likely) and another 3/4 star corner to add depth to the secondary.

More realistic scenario: Warren leaves, and Michigan spends the season without a real #1 corner. Troy Woolfolk is passable, but the #2 corner is again a fiasco barring Justin Turner being the next Law/Woodson/Jackson/Hall. The safeties remain shaky, with one first-year starter taking Kovacs’ spot and Mike Williams remaining as the other safety (and hopefully learning how to cover the deep middle, please). Cullen Christian and another 3/4 star corner commit, but probably don’t contribute immediately.

Very little of this situation is the fault of the current coaching staff: Lloyd Carr’s staff had one cornerback commit in the class of 2008 before handing over the reigns to Rich Rodriguez. That commit was Boubacar Cissoko, who has had equal problems staying eligible and staying with opposing wide receivers. The other defensive back in that class, Brandon Smith, struggled as a safety and was moved to linebacker. You could argue that the Rodriguez staff needed to get another cornerback in the class of 2009, but I doubt anyone expected Justin Turner’s eligibility to be in question so deep into fall camp, and Adrian Witty failed to qualify entirely. It certainly isn’t anybody’s fault that Warren is so good that he’s a likely first-round NFL Draft pick after his junior season.

What am I saying here? There isn’t much to do except brace yourselves, because the struggles of 2009 could be what keeps the 2010 team from being a bona-fide Big Ten title contender.

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Observations on the Iowa Game

Unlike most of this season, Michigan did a very good job in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Unlike most of this season, Michigan did a very good job in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Well, yeah, we lost this game, but there was actually a lot of good that came out of the 30-28 loss to Iowa. Here a some obsvervations from the game:

  • Everybody else seems to have weighed in, so here’s my two cents on Rodriguez’s call to put Denard Robinson back in the game on the final drive: At the time, I couldn’t believe it, and on a final drive I don’t think a team should trot a player out there who causes heart attacks every time he throws downfield. It’s not just that Robinson isn’t very accurate yet; he’s never played in that situation, and he doesn’t have the arm to make up for poor decisions the way Forcier does. Yes, it turns out Forcier was concussed, and the point is moot now, but I just had a bad feeling from the moment Denard took the field. Again, just my opinion.
  • The defense put in one hell of an effort, given the five (five!) Michigan turnovers on the day. The Wolverines held Iowa to just 5.1 yards per play, allowed just 34 rushing yards, scored a touchdown (albeit a gift from Ricky Stanzi, but still), AND managed a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter. If you told me they would play that well before the game, I’d have a hard time not picking Michigan to win.
  • The offense, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Seven of the team’s 13 drives stalled after picking up ten yards or less, and the turnovers were so killer because almost all of them were completely unforced.
  • Donovan Warren and Brandon Graham simply had monster games. I’ll never understand why Stanzi threw at Warren’s side of the field so much — he was just blanketing the Iowa receivers — but at least Stanzi had a choice to stay away from Warren. BG was blowing plays up, whether they were runs or passes, and basically lived in the Hawkeye backfield all night. These two guys are what is holding this defense together.
  • Troy Woolfolk was a pleasant surprise at cornerback. He appeared to play quite well, and possesses the feel for the game that Boubacar Cissoko is lacking right now and the athleticism that J.T. Floyd just doesn’t have. Unfortunately, Mike Williams totally blew his assignment on a couple of Iowa’s touchdowns, and now we’ll have to see if the secondary gets realigned again or if the coaches will simply try to bang it into Williams’ head that he has to be the last man back at all times.
  • The linebackers finally put together a complete game (at least until Brian puts out his UFR and anything I have to say here is completely mitigated). Stevie Brown clearly should have been a linebacker since day one — he made a huge play on the goal-line stand, has been a really solid tackler, and gets to plays very quickly. Ezeh and Mouton both raised their play from earlier this season — you simply don’t hold a team to 34 yards rushing if your linebackers aren’t having good games. Hopefully they can keep it up for the rest of the season.
  • Huge day for the offensive line. They were opening up huge holes for the run game (which netted 195 yards on 4.3 yards per carry) and protected Forcier and Robinson very well when they dropped back (no sacks given up). Even though I think Iowa’s defense is a little overrated, that was still a big performance against a very tough defensive front. Also, nice to see Moosman snapping the ball much better — I don’t recall a single bad snap.
  • It’s tough to really comment too much on the offense. Tate had a rough, rough game. He’s still a freshman, and we have to expect those kind of performances to happen every once in a while. He’s still one of the best true freshmen quarterbacks in recent memory. Denard got thrown into a really tough spot, had one great drive, and then threw a killer pick. He’ll learn from that as well. Minor’s fumble was the one turnover that shocked me — as a senior, you have to protect the ball in that situation, especially when the run was going nowhere to begin with.
  • OK, I lied. Mathews’ turnover was also a stunner — he’s back there for one reason, and that’s to catch the ball. If you have to go to your knees to field a punt inside the ten, just let it go.
  • Is any outside receiver going to step up on this team? Martavious Odoms and Kevin Koger continue to deliver week-in and week-out, and the outside guys continue to pull disappearing acts. This week, Stonum, Mathews, Hemingway (and Savoy, if you want to count him, since he saw a few snaps) combined for two catches and 16 yards. I realize Forcier often looks to his underneath guys first, but that’s still paltry production from a group of guys with too much talent and experience to be invisible like that.

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Update: Cissoko Not With Team

Is Cissoko on his way out as a Wolverine?

Is Cissoko on his way out as a Wolverine?

UPDATE: The rumor appears to be true ($). Cissoko is not with the team in Iowa, and it looks like Troy Woolfolk will play (and likely start) at cornerback, with Jordan Kovacs and Mike Williams starting at safety. No definitive word as to why Cissoko was left behind in Ann Arbor.

The rumors are flying about Michigan cornerback Boubacar Cissoko, who may not have made the trip to Iowa. First, MGoBlog poster mgokev:

I’ve just heard from a reliable source on the team that Boubacar Cissoko was not invited to travel with the team to Iowa today. Possibly to send him a message to step his game up because there’s no apparent injury issue with him. Thoughts?

Go Blue Michigan Wolverine has also added their two cents:

GBMW got word on Friday that he was asked to leave twice this past week during practice. Seems that he has not taken to his benching very well.

Some sites were using his injury as an excuse for how bad he has been playing this year and using the “waving of hands” after each incomplete pass even if he had nothing to do with it as an emotional boost even when he was getting torched during the Notre Dame game.

His future at Michigan is up in the air as well. Will he go just a few miles away to play football if things do not go well at Michigan? Who knows after the game they may use the “flu bug” as an excuse of him not making the trip. Will be interesting press conference after the game.

*** Rumors are swirling that a couple of players think he is gone either way.

I’m not putting much validity into any rumor until I hear something from the mouth of a coach, but if true, this is not good for a secondary that is already razor-thin and probably losing Donovan Warren to the draft next season. I’ll have more on this situation as it develops.

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