Junior Michael Shaw will be part of a heated competition to start at tailback.

With the recruiting class of 2010 signed, Michigan football fans can officially turn their attention to spring practice, and ultimately how the team will look come fall. With some assistance from MGoBlog’s depth chart by class and the resources available at The Wolverine (including Michael Spath’s very early look at the 2011 depth chart and Matt Pargoff’s in-depth look at this year’s recruiting class), I’ve done my best to project how the depth chart will look like this fall. Today, I’ll break down my outlook on the offense, and tomorrow I’ll do the same for the defense.

I’ve tried to include every notable scholarship player, including all the true freshmen. Because of this, and the uncertainty of many player’s positions heading into spring practice, I recommend taking the positions listed below with a grain of salt, especially along the offensive line and defensive secondary — at this point, it’s far too early to know who will be playing where. Instead, I wanted to do this to get a feel for the talent and depth of the team, and also be able to use this as a reference for player eligibility. For player eligibility, I’m using what MGoBlog has listed, and for player heights and weights I’m referring to last year’s official roster or Rivals’ recruiting data — I’ll do my best to note if a player has made reported weight gains or losses where applicable. Without further ado, let’s check out the depth chart:

Quarterback: No surprises here — Tate Forcier should head into the fall as the team’s starting quarterback, and I expect Rich Rodriguez and his staff will do their best to keep true freshman Devin Gardner on track to redshirt. Denard Robinson will remain the backup quarterback, and true freshman Conelius Jones will only see the field if the quarterback apocalypse occurs (nothing against Jones, but I don’t think anyone wants to see our second-choice true freshman athlete get forced into action).

Running Backs: The most interesting position battle on offense will be for the starting tailback spot, but with sophomore Vincent Smith sidelined for spring practice with a torn ACL, Michigan fans will have to wait for the fall to see how that one turns out. Smith appeared to be the probable 2010 starter until tearing that ACL against Ohio State, but by no means was he a shoe-in for the spot — junior speedster Michael Shaw, 2009 scout team standout (and former Rivals four-star) Fitzgerald Toussaint and athletic redshirt sophomore Michael Cox will all compete for snaps with the first team in the spring. Freshman Austin White is a solid pass-catching threat who could see situational time in the fall as well.

[UPDATE: Thanks to JC for bringing to my attention that Kelvin Grady is moving over to running back for the spring. That change is now reflected in the depth chart, as well as Teric Jones moving back to offense. For now, I've put Jones in the slot, but he may also see snaps at running back as well.]

At fullback, Mark Moundros returns, although he saw his playing time diminish as Michigan further implemented Rich Rodriguez’s offense last season. A player to watch will be true freshman Stephen Hopkins, a 6-0, 235-pound bulldozer who could see time at both tailback and fullback — the coaching staff has expressed interest in using him like West Virginia used Owen “Runaway Beer Truck” Schmitt, who lined up both as a traditional fullback and as the only back in single-back sets. Hopkins could be called upon in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Wide Receiver: This would be one of those instances where you can basically ignore my guesses at position — I didn’t make much differentiation between X and Y, so treat all these players as simply outside receivers if you want to make things more simple. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway both started at times (read: when healthy) last season, and should reprise their roles in 2010. Sophomore Je’Ron Stokes saw intermittent playing time as a true freshman, and should have a much larger role with the departures of Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy. Of the incoming crop of freshmen receivers, I think Ricardo Miller has the best chance of seeing early playing time — both Robinson and Williamson could use a redshirt year to develop physically, while Jeremy Jackson could have a difficult time earning a role over more athletic receivers on the roster. If Cameron Gordon stays on the offensive side of the ball, he could be a guy to watch next season — he has great physical tools for a receiver.

Slot Receiver: Michigan has an abundance of talent at the slot, including arguably the two best receivers on the roster in Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms. Both players will see the field plenty in 2010, and I expect to see Michigan go to more four-receiver sets in order to get their best players on the field as much as possible. Kelvin Grady should show improvement after spending last season struggling with the offense, but he will be pushed for time by promising redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon, a player who many thought would contribute immediately after stepping on campus. That didn’t happen, but the talent is still there — the only question is whether there is enough playing time at the slot to go around. Terrence Robinson appears to be the odd man out at slot receiver at this point — unless he shows better hands and a great deal more comfort with the knee injury he suffered as a freshman, he’ll have a hard time cracking the lineup. Drew Dileo could contribute on special teams, but expect him to redshirt unless he wins a job as a returner.

Tight End: It will be interesting to see how much the tight end position gets utilized in 2010 — starter Kevin Koger’s role diminished as the season wore on last year, and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t taken a recruit at the position since he took over at Michigan. Still, Koger finished fifth on the team in receptions last year, and early in the season appeared to be Tate Forcier’s go-to guy in the red zone, so I’d be surprised if the tight end position was phased out completely. That’s good news for Koger, but Martell Webb and Brandon Moore may have a tough time seeing the field in the fall, as I’m guessing Rodriguez would prefer playing one of his talented slot receivers instead of a backup tight end. This position group could be one of the keys to Michigan’s offense in 2010 or completely gone from the depth chart by 2011.

Offensive Line: Please, please don’t take these position groupings too seriously — there are several players on the line who could start at multiple positions, especially Patrick Omameh and Mark Huyge, who both could start at either tackle or guard. The wild cards along the line are Ricky Barnum and Quinton Washington, who could easily challenge for a starting guard spot over Huyge/Omameh. I expect Omameh, who showed a lot of promise at guard last season, to start somewhere along the line, but more experienced linemen like Huyge and Perry Dorrestein could be bumped from the lineup in favor of younger (but more highly-touted) linemen.  I don’t think the coaching staff would be very comfortable with a line full of freshmen, sophomores and Molk, but they’ve been steadfast in their assertions that the best players will see the field regardless of age. Other than Molk at center and Schilling at left guard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of players along the line in 2010.

Kicker: Redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons has the inside track for the placekicker position, but he was supposed to win the position last fall before giving way to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. Olesnavage has graduated, but don’t rule out the possibility of walk-on Scott Schrimscher winning the job. Redshirt senior Bryan Wright has lost multiple battles for the placekicker position, and likely will be relegated to kickoff duties again in the fall.

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What does Michigan do with Denard Robinson in 2010?

The news that highly-touted high school recruit Devin Gardner has enrolled early at Michigan has spurned a lot of discussion about the quarterback position at Michigan. Many think he’ll be competing for the starting job, and quite possibly could be too talented to keep off the field in 2010, even if a redshirt year gives Gardner an extra season of distance between himself and Tate Forcier. Others think that, no matter what, Gardner should be redshirted.

The man few can agree about, meanwhile, is sophomore quarterback Denard Robinson. After getting beat out by Forcier for the starting role last year, Robinson alternated between sound barrier-breaking dual threat (see: Western Michigan) and frustratingly inaccurate turnover machine (final 2009 stats: 14-31, 188 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT). The question is, then, is Michigan comfortable with Robinson as their backup/situational quarterback in 2010, or is the reward of playing Gardner greater than the risk of his redshirt year? And, if Gardner does step in and play at quarterback, where does Michigan play Robinson?

It’s obviously far too early to have any definite answer to these questions — Gardner just arrived on campus this weekend and hasn’t taken a collegiate snap, and nobody can tell how far Forcier and Robinson have progressed until spring practices are in full swing. It’s never too early, however, for speculation, so let’s take a look at what Michigan can do with Robinson this season:

1. Backup/situational QB — Michigan can choose to play Robinson in the exact same role they had him playing in 2009, serving as an insurance policy for Forcier while also taking snaps as a change-of-pace quarterback. If, after spring and fall practices are complete, the coaching staff thinks this is the best place for Robinson, I would call this the best-case scenario — it means that the staff is comfortable with Forcier as the starter, and with Robinson as a reliable backup, giving Gardner a year to learn the offense and an extra season on the back end of his collegiate career. Make no mistake; this coaching staff will not let something as trivial as a redshirt year determine how they use Gardner — they know the most important thing is to win, and to win now. If this is how the situation plays out, it will be because having Forcier and Robinson handling quarterback duties give the team the best chance to win.
2. A little bit of everything — Robinson did play a few snaps in 2009 as a slot receiver and running back, but did not play at either position enough to pose much of a threat as anything other than the gimmicky, trick-play sort. With a full season plus spring practice under his belt, however, Robinson could begin to learn these positions and develop into a jack-of-all-trades, on top of being the backup QB. This is an interesting possibility, but also has a few flaws. First, if Robinson is in fact the backup quarterback, I think Michigan fans will all want him to give his full attention and practice time to developing at the position. After all, if Forcier goes down for any length of time, Michigan will need Robinson to be much further along at QB than he was last season. Second, it’s risky to have your backup QB (Forcier’s insurance policy) subjecting himself to injury at positions where Michigan already has several capable players. I like the idea of Robinson seeing the field as an athlete, but I also like having a backup QB in one piece.
3. Full-out position switch — It’s tough to watch Robinson at QB and not think that his tremendous athletic ability (just check out his most recent exploit: running a 6.81 60-meter dash to win against OSU in his first collegiate track meet) is somewhat wasted there. Many fans are clamoring for Robinson to be used like former Florida Gator Percy Harvin, who lined up at receiver and running back (and occasionally took direct snaps) while terrorizing SEC defenses for the Gators’ national championship squad. If Gardner is the real deal, and Rich Rodriguez can’t help but let him see the field in 2010, then this is where Robinson belongs. There are issues here as well, however: Michigan’s depth at receiver and running back are both strong, and Robinson would have to learn a new position. This is where it helps that Gardner is enrolling early — if DG shows in spring practice that he’s a better quarterback already than Robinson, the staff can start Robinson’s transition to another position earlier, and give him a better shot at making a big impact in 2010.
4. Robinson to defensive back — Out of everything here, this is the least desirable option, in my opinion. Yes, Robinson was recruited by Florida to play defensive back. Michigan has recruited a ton of DBs in the last couple classes, however, and there’s no guarantee that Robinson would ever see significant time on defense, especially since he’ll have to learn a whole new system and position partway into his college career. Also, Robinson is the type of explosive athlete you want to see with the ball in his hands. Unless something catastrophic happens in the defensive backfield, this should never happen.

The quarterback battle as a whole, and what Michigan decides to do with Robinson specifically, may be the biggest story for Michigan in the offseason. I haven’t even mentioned the other quarterback in Michigan’s 2010 class, South Carolina dual threat Conelius Jones, who will be enrolling in the fall, although I don’t expect him to compete for immediate playing time. Robinson is a special athlete with the talent to be a game-breaker on offense — the question, of course, is where exactly he can have the biggest impact. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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Devin Gardner: Enrolling early, after all.

So, it figures: last week I put up a post running down the list of potential recruits that could round out Michigan’s 2010 class. This weekend, Michigan has a huge visit week, resulting in two commits for this class — neither of whom were in my rundown. Sorry, everyone.

Michigan actually ended up with three commitments this weekend — linebackers Davion Rogers (Rivals 3*, #26 OLB, former West Virginia commit) and Jake Ryan (Rivals 3*, #45 Ohio prospect) both pledged for the class of 2010, and Cass Tech corner Delonte Hollowell became Michigan’s second early commitment for the class of 2011, joining fellow defensive back Greg Brown.

Rogers, who is listed at 6′6, 210 pounds, says he will be a “stand-up defensive end” for Michigan, which leads one to believe he’ll be playing Craig Roh’s hybrid spot. With Rogers’ frame, he’ll probably be taking a redshirt year to fill out and learn the defense. Here are his highlights, courtesy of ScoutingOhio.com — Rogers shows off impressive instincts and sideline-to-sideline speed:

Ryan, a 6-3, 225 pound outside linebacker from Westlake, Ohio, showed up lately on Michigan’s recruiting radar and received a scholarship offer during his official visit this weekend — he committed today, so he was obviously very excited to be offered by the Wolverines. Ryan boasts a very impressive highlight tape himself, coming from the OLB position to terrorize opposing backfields:

Hollowell comes from a long line of talented but pint-sized corners from Cass Tech, following in the (small) footsteps of Boubacar Cissoko and Dior Mathis. Hollowell is listed at 5-8, 163, and even that might be generous, but he has generated interest from the likes of LSU, UCLA, Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois, so the talent is obviously there for him to be an impact corner. Hollowell has nice highlights, as well — I like how he reads the quarterback and breaks on the ball, and he packs a lot of punch for a guy his size:

Adding to the good cheer was the news that Inkster quarterback Devin Gardner, who had attempted to enroll early but ran into paperwork issues while trying to graduate high school early, will in fact enroll at Michigan and start classes this week. This is great news for Michigan — now Gardner will be able to get a jump on learning the offense, developing physically, and give Tate Forcier some elite competition for the starting job. Even if Gardner eventually redshirts, he’ll still be a threat that should push Forcier and Denard Robinson to improve mightily on their performances from 2009.

It’s been a great weekend for Michigan sports (even hockey got into the act, taking three of a possible four points from fourth-place Alaska-Fairbanks this weekend). Here’s hoping we have many more to come in 2010.

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Matt Stafford improved mightily between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Georgia.

On Wednesday, I compared Tate Forcier’s final freshman numbers with those of several notable true freshmen starters from the recent past. However, 2009 is done and over with, and I think every Michigan fan is more interested in how 2010 will shape up than looking back on this past season. So, I decided to see how the same freshmen I compared Forcier to fared in their sophomore seasons, and used that data to project how Forcier’s numbers might look in 2010. First, here are the stats from the freshmen seasons of the players I compared Forcier to (with the exception of Robert Griffin III, who was taken out because he missed most of the 2009 season due to injury):

*Win-loss record reflects only games in which the quarterback participated.
^Average passer efficiency is calculated using the players' average stats,
instead of averaging the players' passer efficiencies, if that makes any sense whatsoever.

And now, those same players’ statistics from their sophomore seasons:

Now, I took the average stat lines from the freshmen and sophomores and adjusted them each to a 300-attempt season, for the sake of making them easier to compare, and also because it will come in useful when projecting Forcier’s 2010 stats (he had 281 attempts in 2009, so 300 is as good a figure as any to project for next year).

And now, using the figures from the above chart, I took Forcier’s freshman year, adjusted it to a 300-attempt season, and then used those numbers to project how he will do in 2010. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results:

For context, Tate’s projected passer efficiency would place him 12th in the country this year, just behind Pitt’s Bill Stull and ahead of players like Tyrod Taylor (who I was shocked to see rated so high), Riley Skinner, Christian Ponder, Colt McCoy, Darryl Clark, Kirk Cousins, and, well, pretty much the entire rest of the country. Will this actually happen? I’ll go ahead and preempt the laundry-list of errors with this experiment with a few bullet points:

• First, and most importantly, this is an extremely small sample size consisting of mostly elite players. I have no idea how to calculate margin of error, but I’m sure it’s astronomical for something like this. So, please keep in mind this is based on the performance of just seven players, and seven extremely talented players at that (potshots at Juice Williams aside, it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a very talented player).
• The largest jumps in improvement for the above players were from the quarterbacks who had very poor freshman campaigns (Clausen, Williams, Stafford, and Quinn), while the quarterbacks who performed very well in their first season (Henne, Pryor, and Leak) exhibited far less statistical gains (or even regression) in their sophomore seasons. Since Forcier’s true freshman numbers fall much closer to the latter category than the former, and no sophomore on the list put up the numbers that I’ve projected for Tate’s 2010 campaign, it looks pretty unlikely that he’ll improve quite as much as the numbers show.
• I have no idea how to factor in that Forcier enrolled early for his freshman year — the extra experience almost certainly helped his freshman numbers, but how will that affect his sophomore improvement? Will he improve less than average, because some of the learning curve was taken out in Year One? Will he improve more than average, because he is already ahead of where most sophomores are at his age? That’s a whole other study, and I enjoy going outside every once in a while.

Now that you’ve taken this entire study with a grain of salt the size of Jake Long, here are the things that jumped out at me from the above numbers:

• Even if you scale back your expectations drastically from what I’ve projected, Forcier’s numbers still look very good. If nothing else, this has really convinced me that Forcier needs to be the starter next season — the improvement from freshman to sophomore seasons is too much to risk starting over with another true freshman, and I think most everyone can agree that Denard Robinson is not a viable option as a full-time quarterback from what he showed in 2009.
• It was very interesting to see that, while completion percentage and yards per attempt both improved around 15%, touchdown passes went up an astonishing 42.6%. Despite all the statistical flaws this study has, that number has to be significant. It’s also very encouraging. Think about the freshman mistakes Forcier made — many of them came in the red zone, when the field is shortened and poor decisions cost the team, and the quarterback, what should be easy touchdowns. I think that one of the biggest differences between a true freshman and sophomore quarterback is the ability to make the right read in tight spaces, and not to force a pass into the end zone. There will still be mistakes — just take a look at the interception rate, which barely moved — but they will likely be of the less back-breaking variety. I’d be willing to bet that Michigan’s red zone efficiency — 116th in the country at 67% — improves drastically next season, and much of that improvement will be the direct result of Forcier’s maturation as a quarterback.
• I know this post is about Michigan and Tate Forcier, but take a look at Pryor’s strange numbers — his passer efficiency went from a tremendous 146.50 as a freshman to a respectable, but worse, 128.04 as a sophomore. Much of this has to do with how he was deployed as a freshman — mostly as a runner, with few passing plays and easy reads that were set up by the threat of him running. As a full-time quarterback, he couldn’t be sheltered like that, and it showed. Unfortunately (for us Michigan fans), I don’t think you can point to those numbers and say he regressed. He simply wasn’t a normal true freshman starter, and was more adversely affected by the transition to full-time starter, with a full playbook and the full attention of opposing defenses, than the other players listed above.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. I had no idea how this would turn out when I started crunching the numbers, but I found it very informative. I personally don’t think Forcier will hit the above projected stats (and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to sound like a raving lunatic homer by predicting such), but even if he falls well short of those numbers, we should see a good deal of improvement out of the quarterback position next season.

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Although Forcier didn't finish the season strong, his overall numbers still stack up well with other true freshmen.

Earlier in the season, I compared Tate Forcier to a number of prominent true freshman starting QBs (after five games, and after eight games). Well, it wouldn’t make any sense to have done that and not take a look at how he compares after a full season. Without further ado, here are Tate’s full season stats, as well as those of the players I have compared him to and the average of the listed players’ stats.

*Record only reflects games in which the quarterback participated

This may come as a surprise to anyone who watched the latter half of Michigan’s season, but Forcier’s numbers compare favorably with his true freshmen contemporaries. The only stat listed in which he finishes below the average is interceptions, and even then he is just below the cut. No, he didn’t match the outstanding numbers of Chad Henne, Robert Griffin III, Chris Leak, or (sigh) Terrelle Pryor, but, with the exception of Griffin, Forcier didn’t have the talented weapons (or offensive lines) that those players did.

What should we take from this? For one, Michigan fans expecting Devin Gardner to come in and take over the starting job are forgetting that the Wolverines already have one of the country’s most talented quarterbacks at their disposal, with a year of starting experience to boot. Look at the above list of names again — with the exception of Williams (and Pryor and Griffin, who are only sophomores themselves), every one of those quarterbacks matured into a very good collegiate quarterback. Chris Leak is arguably the worst of the “very good” players, and he won a national title at Florida.

Yes, there are factors that the numbers don’t show — Forcier’s penchant for fumbling, for instance, as well as rushing totals — but they still paint a pretty clear picture, and that picture is of a true freshman quarterback who had the type of year that usually leads to college stardom. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at what we can expect from Forcier next season, based on the development of the above players as true sophomores. Do we really want another true freshman starter next season? I don’t think so, and I expect the numbers to back me up on that.

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(Slightly abbreviated Wolverines on the Web today … I’m struggling with a never-ending sinus infection and my internet connection keeps cutting out. Hooray, life.)

The video above comes courtesy of Maize and Blue Nation, who also has a second angle of the awesome pre-game flyover. Like Brad says at M&BN, there’s really nothing that compares to seeing a flyover live — it never fails to give me chills. Brad also has his reactions to the game posted, and his first statement just about sums up my feelings perfectly:

Rich Rodriguez did not throw 4 interceptions or fumble the ball in endzone. Tate Forcier did. Anyone who thinks Rodriguez should be fired is wrong. We had a gameplan to win this game. Rodriguez/Magee had a plan to move the ball against tOSU’s defense…and it worked. We just made too many mistakes.

Amen. Reactions are also up from MGoBrian, whose ennui is so strong I can barely muster the motivation to finish this sentence; Maize n Brew Dave, who, like me, was not particularly pleased with the amount of Ohio State fans in the stadium; and Burgeoning Wolverine Star, who thinks Vincent Smith solidified his spot as the 2010 starting tailback (I agree).

Greg over at MVictors has some pretty cool photos from before the game, including one of Paul Bunyan Jake Long and even CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta. The WCBN blog compares Tate Forcier’s freshman year to Mark Sanchez’s rookie season with the Jets, and also has an interview with 2010 commit Ken Wilkins, who was visiting for the Ohio State game.

In non-football sports, Dylan exchanges questions with Creighton blog The White and Blue Review before Michigan faces off with them on Thanksgiving, and The Blog That Yost Built details the depressing fallout from the Czarnik departure and Jack Campbell’s decision to play in the OHL. Even the hockey fans are saying ‘at least we have basketball’.

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Roy Roundtree looks like he will be an integral part of the 2010 offense.

There’s not much left to say about the 2009 season, so I’m going to go ahead and take a look at what the 2010 team will look like. First up is the offense, which should see little turnover from a very young unit. Just a note: I’ll be referring to players by what class they will be in for 2010 (for instance, I’ll be calling Tate Forcier a sophomore).

Quarterback: There will be a lot of speculation about the quarterback position, especially with the way Tate Forcier finished his freshman campaign. Forcier obviously has the inside track at the starting position in 2010, with a full season as the starter in Rich Rodriguez’s system under his belt. Denard Robinson has shown value as a situational quarterback, but hasn’t shown the passing ability to be a full-time solution at the position. The wild card will be the presence of incoming freshman Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s #1 quarterback in the Class of 2010 and a threat to start from the moment he steps on campus. Unfortunately, Gardner will not be able to enroll early, and will have a tough time learning the offense quickly enough to unseat Forcier. In all likelihood, we’ll see the same quarterback rotation that we saw in 2009 — I doubt Rich Rodriguez wants to put his job on the line with another true freshman starting at the most important position on the field. Forcier should be an improved player when we see him next fall, and hopefully the rookie mistakes that marred the Ohio State game will be largely absent from his game a year from now.

Running Back: Michigan loses two talented (but oft-injured) tailbacks in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, but there is still a lot of talent returning at the position. Junior Michael Shaw and sophomore Vincent Smith should provide a solid one-two punch similar to how Michigan rotated Minor and Brown when they were healthy. They could be pushed for playing time by redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint (a highly-regarded four-star who put up very impressive numbers in high school) and redshirt sophomore Mike Cox, who at the very least will provide some depth at the position. Smith showed flashes of real promise in the second half of the season, and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on a nice 18-yard reception — he has showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his small stature, and could turn into a workhorse-type back. Shaw is more in the Carlos Brown mold (right down to the consistent nagging injuries), a guy with track-star speed who is a threat to take any run the distance. The Wolverines will also add Livonia Stevenson running back Austin White, a three-star tailback who is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and the large (6-0, 235 lbs.) Stephen Hopkins in the freshman class, although both will have an uphill climb for playing time. Despite losing two senior backs, Michigan looks to be in good shape at running back in 2010.

Outside Receiver: Michigan only loses two players, Greg Mathews and LaTerryal Savoy, from a unit that couldn’t consistently produce in 2009. Juniors Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are your likely starters for 2010, and have the potential to provide Forcier with two solid deep threats if they continue to develop as players. Michigan will also return sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon, a couple of four-star players from the Class of 2009, and will add some young talent in incoming freshmen Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, and Jeremy Jackson. Miller, an early commit who moved to Ann Arbor after playing his first three high school seasons at Dr. Phillips (FL), has the best chance to see the field early, although Jerald Robinson is the highest-rated player (Rivals.com four-star, #45 wide receiver) of the true freshmen and could also have an impact early on. The issue with the outside receivers isn’t talent — Stonum, Stokes, and Gordon were all four-star recruits, and Hemingway has been impressive when healthy — but consistency. Expect to see a lot of rotation at receiver until somebody steps up and establishes themselves as a consistent threat.

Slot Receivers: An injury to Martavious Odoms gave Roy Roundtree an opportunity to show his ability at slot receiver, and Roundtree may have edged out Odoms as the starter with his performance over the latter half of 2009. Both players should see ample playing time in 2010, and Roundtree’s emergence as Forcier’s go-to guy could mean Michigan shows more four-receiver sets next fall. Before his injury, Odoms had established himself as Michigan’s most consistent receiver under Rich Rodriguez, and also garnered praise for his downfield blocking and knowledge of the offense. Each player brings a different set of skills to the table, and Michigan will likely utilize both with regularity in 2010. There is a lot of depth at this position, with junior Kelvin Grady, sophomore Terrence Robinson, and redshirt freshman Jeremy Gallon all returning, to be joined by incoming freshmen Drew Dileo and Tony Drake. Grady, who saw his playing time decrease as Roundtree’s role expanded, could see more playing time as his transition from basketball to football continues. Many thought Gallon would contribute this season, but a late start because of academic clearinghouse issues forced him to redshirt — he’s a dark horse guy who could have a breakout season if he gets the opportunity. Overall, there’s a lot of talent in the slot, and Michigan should once again see the majority of their receiving production come from the position.

Tight Ends: Big things were expected from the tight end position, especially junior Kevin Koger, in 2009, but a strong start from Koger was followed by a disappointing string of drops as the position became more of a non-factor as the season wore on. However, there is still a lot of talent at tight end, with Koger joined by senior Martell Webb and redshirt sophomore Brandon Moore. The position will be one to watch in 2010 — Rich Rodriguez rarely utilized tight ends at West Virginia, but Koger has shown the potential to be a huge weapon in the spread. Along with Webb, who also struggled with drops this season, Koger may just be playing for the survival of the tight end position at Michigan next season. If he can catch the ball, Koger could be an All-Big Ten player next year, and a great safety valve for Forcier.

Offensive Line: The unit with the most turnover is the offensive line, which loses starters Mark Ortmann and David Moosman, as well as backup Tim McAvoy. However, Michigan returns five players who earned starts in 2009 in Steve Schilling, David Molk, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and Patrick Omameh. Schilling (right guard) and Molk (center) will likely hold down their current positions, but the other three spots on the line are up for grabs, with a bevy of talented linemen all competing for playing time. Omameh performed well at right guard in the last few games of the season, and will likely earn a starting spot somewhere on the line. Huyge is another player that can play multiple positions, and should compete with Dorrestein and redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield for a shot at one of the tackle positions. On the interior of the line, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum, Rocko Khoury, and Elliott Mealer, as well as redshirt freshman Quinton Washington, will provide depth and push for playing time. Regardless of who earns starting spots on the line, the experience and talent at every position should mean an improved unit for 2010.

2010 Outlook: The 2009 offense improved drastically from a disastrous unit in Rich Rodriguez’s first year at Michigan. With Tate Forcier having a full year at Michigan under his belt — and hopefully with a greater appreciation for holding on to the football — the Wolverines should once again have an improved offense in 2010. Forcier will be the key — the offensive line should be better with experience, and there is a lot of talent and depth at all the skill positions. If Michigan can get more efficiency from the quarterback position — and they should — we could be seeing one of the nation’s most potent offenses next season.

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Not going anywhere.

I have no idea where the “Tate Forcier is transferring” rumors came from, but here’s a quote from his father from the ESPN insider article misleadingly linked to as “Tate Forcier may be transferring“, as reported by Bruce Feldman:

Feldman continues: “He said if his son were to be thinking of transferring it’d be ludicrous.”

No worries, everyone. Also, Angelique Chenglis of The Detroit News tweeted this:

So, nothing to see here.

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Jonas Mouton is capable of making plays -- that is, when he's in position to make them.

It’s time for this week’s edition of Five Things… first, a look back at last week’s keys:

1. No more Turnover Tate — Two more fumbles for Tate Forcier, with one going over to Purdue. His ball-security issues are clearly something that will have to be addressed in the offseason — for all his ability to create plays scrambling, his fumbling problems negate a lot of the positives he brings to the team.
2. Feed Brandon Minor — Minor was a force, carrying the ball 19 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, now he’s banged up again, so we’ll see if he can match that workload against Wisconsin. Cross your fingers, Wolverines.
3. Don’t break — 38 points 494 yards of offense allowed on 7.3 yards per play. Um, that’s broken, defense.
4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — In a way, we did — like much of this season, Elliott produced big numbers but mitigated some of his production with two interceptions. However, when you give up 367 yards and two touchdowns passing and can’t get a stop when holding on to a lead, you don’t get a pass. Sorry.
5. Play with an edge — I will give the team this one. They played damn hard. The effort was there, but the execution fell short.

Well, we tried, and Brandon Minor had the kind of game that makes you wonder how we would’ve done if he was healthy all year. Before I pull out the remaining hair on my head, let’s move on to Wisconsin:

1. Convert in the red zone — Michigan is pathetic 107th in the country in red zone offense, scoring just 71% of the time they’re inside the 20. Wisconsin, on the other hand, scores on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The Wolverine defense is going to allow Wisconsin some red zone chances, and in all likelihood, they will convert. Michigan has shown they can move the ball on anybody on offense, but they will have to match the Badgers’ red zone scores if they want to keep up. That means no back-breaking turnovers, Tate. Yes, I’m basically recycling the same game keys here, but the same issues keep coming up.
2. Feed Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown — See? I told you the same issues keep coming up. In this case, I think Michigan will have to establish, and keep establishing, the run game if they want to win this one. Wisconsin will be doing their best to wear down the defense by pounding them with John Clay on the interior — I’m fully expecting to see some painfully long marches down the field by the Badgers. If healthy, Minor is Michigan’s best counter to this — he’s the one running back who has shown an ability to consistently produce between the tackles. If Minor is out or limited, Carlos Brown will have to do his best Minor impression, and hopefully will be fed enough to break a big run or two. Either way, the offense will be relying on their senior backs to match Wisconsin’s smashmouth style.
3. Take advantage of Wisconsin’s special teams — The Badgers are 66th in the country in net punting (35.51 yards/punt) and 116th in kick return defense (25.59 yards/return). Junior Hemingway, when he’s not putting the ball on the ground, showed the ability to break a big punt return against Purdue. Darryl Stonum has established himself to the point where he seems liable to break a kick return on every touch. Field position will be at a premium against Wisconsin, and between the returns and Zoltan Mesko’s ability to pin the opponent deep, I think Michigan has a golden opportunity to take hold of the field position battle.
4. Linebackers, stay disciplined — Michigan has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup, each change triggered by a back-breaking mistake (just look at MGoBlog’s defensive UFR if you doubt me on this). I can somewhat understand the limitations of Obi Ezeh (three-star running back coming out of high school) and Kevin Leach (walk-on), but the fact that Jonas Mouton continually makes horrendous mental errors is a lot less acceptable. I don’t want to attempt to count the number of times he’s allowed a quarterback or running back to get outside of him — when that’s his only responsibility — but that has to end. Keep John Clay inside, and feed him into the line and middle backer (whoever it is). Please.
5. Play desperate — Let’s be honest: If Michigan wants to make a bowl game, this is the time to step up and get a victory. Wisconsin is a hell of a lot more beatable than Ohio State, regardless of what you think of Terrelle Pryor’s development (or lack of). The coaching staff, and players, can’t hold anything back on this one. Even though this shouldn’t be (and isn’t) the case, I want to see Rich Rodriguez coaching this game like his job depends on it. Bust out trick plays, throw in a new wrinkle on offense we haven’t seen, play Brandon Graham at fullback — whatever it takes, do it.

No prediction this week: Michigan keeps letting me down every time I expect a bounce-back performance, and I’m sick of predicting losses. Right now, it’s about watching for progress, especially on defense. I wonder if “Let’s Go Progress” will catch on as a chant… No? OK, I’ll shut up now. Go Blue.

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With a (relatively) healthy Brandon Minor ready to go, Michigan needs to feed him the ball.

Before I start on the keys to the Purdue game, I guess I’m obligated to go over the ones for last week. Ugh.

1. Run, run, run — Yes, Michigan ran 43 times, so I guess they literally ran, ran, ran. However, 2.6 yards per carry and four misses from the one-yard line puts this squarely in the “fail” column.
2. Keep the Illini off the board early — I guess this should have been “Keep the Illini off the board late,” since Illinois scored 31 of their 38 points in the second half. I guess this is a pass.
3. Show me something, safeties — Congratulations to Mike Williams for somehow amassing an incredible -12 on Brian’s UFR, thanks to his complete inability to keep contain on Juice Williams and blowing a couple coverages to boot. In other news, Jordan Kovacs remains a freshman walk-on who is physically unsuited to play deep safety. The safeties did manage to show me something — unfortunately, that something was “disaster”.
4. Get the outside receivers involved — Final totals: Mathews — 3 catches, 34 yards; Hemingway — 2 catches, 87 yards; Savoy — 1 catch, 7 yards. Hemingway’s numbers are helped immensely by a 66-yard bomb caught when the team was already down 31-13. The team still is not getting much production whatsoever from the outside guys.
5. Just go for it — I was hoping Rich Rod would open up the offense and take some shots. Instead, we didn’t see any deep passes until after Illinois had built a sizeable lead. The obnoxious part was that the deep passes worked. We can’t win even when we win.

Alright, now allow me to never talk about that game again (or at least any time in the near future). On to Purdue!

1. No more Turnover Tate — I hope Tate Forcier was instructed to walk around campus this entire week with a football tucked firmly between his elbow and his chest, Mike Hart-style. His carelessness with the ball has taken more potential points off the board than I care to think about. I love how the kid plays, and I want to see him keep being aggressive and trying to make things happen, but ball security is Priority 1A. I can forgive a freshman interception. I have a lot tougher time letting it go when he fumbles while holding the ball like a pigskin lunchpail.
2. Feed Brandon Minor — With proclamations that Brandon Minor is getting healthier coupled with the news that Carlos Brown is battling tendinitis in his knee, Michigan should get Minor a lot of touches this weekend. Add in the fact that Purdue boasts the 88th-best rushing defense in the country, and it’d be inexcusable (barring injury) for Minor not to get at least 20 carries tomorrow. He has proven time and again that, when healthy, he is a force to be reckoned with. [Insert played-out "Minor needs to be Major" pun here]
3. Don’t break — Yes, the whole “bend but don’t break” defense thing is a totally overused cliche, but at this point, bending is really the best we can hope for from Michigan’s defense. If the offense can keep from turning the ball over, the defense may need to make only a couple timely stops (and maybe force a turnover for the first time in four games) and hold a couple red zone possessions to field goals for this team to get a much-needed victory.
4. Force Joey Elliott to be Joey Elliott — Yes, Elliott has 17 total touchdowns this year (14 pass, 3 rush), but he’s also thrown 11 picks. Get in the guy’s grill (I’m looking at you, Brandon Graham), and even our sorry secondary could be on the receiving end of some gift interceptions. I’d like to see Greg Robinson get aggressive early — if our safeties can’t guard anyone, you might as well see if you can get to the quarterback before he has the time to exploit them.
5. Play with an edge — This team has shown the ability to play with a chip on their shoulder — they looked ready to take down all comers after the Freep scandal threatened to destroy the 2009 season before it ever began. Last week, this team looked just about ready to quit on Rich Rodriguez. With the stakes now higher than ever, how will the team respond? They’ve battled through adversity once already, and it’s time to do it again.

I might feel like an idiot (won’t be the first time) for making this prediction, but for some reason, I’m confident that this team can will its way to a victory before all of southeast Michigan reaches for the pitchforks. I think Tate will look like the kid we saw in the first four games, Brandon Minor will run angry, and the defense will do just enough (and I mean just enough) to secure a bowl-clinching victory: Michigan 36, Purdue 33.

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