Michigan released its official depth chart today for the UConn game, and there are a few surprises on the two-deep for Saturday. The entire depth chart can be found at the Football Depth Chart page. Let’s start by breaking down the offense:
No surprise at quarterback, as Rich Rodriguez has said we won’t know who the starter is until kickoff; for the second straight season, we get three players all tied at the top. Devin Gardner, in Rodriguez’s words, will “probably not” redshirt this season — it looks like he has done enough in the coaches’ eyes to see the field this season and help the team. I still expect Denard Robinson to be the starter on Saturday, but we’ll probably see all three quarterbacks at some point.
Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw head up what should be a rotation of at least 3-4 running backs. Note that Teric Jones, who was recruited at running back but played in the secondary for the past year, is back at his natural position.
This is where things get a little interesting. Your starting wideouts are Darryl Stonum/Junior Hemingway and Martavious Odoms on the outside and Roy Roundtree/Kelvin Grady in the slot. This is probably a product of the depth and talent at slot receiver, especially with Grady having a breakout fall camp, and Rich Rodriguez’s subsequent attempt to get the best players on the field. The only true freshman on the depth chart, interestingly, is Jeremy Jackson — I suspect this is because he has by far the best hands out of the group, and he should be a reliable possession receiver if the team needs to use him.
The depth chart at tight ends looks exactly the same as it did last year. It will be very interesting to see how much this position factors into the offense with all the talent at receiver.
It appears that the veterans have held off the talented youngsters at tackle, as redshirt junior Mark Huyge and senior Perry Dorrestein get the nod at tackle over redshirt freshmen Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield, at least for now. They will be joined by what should be a very good interior line in left guard Stephen Schilling, center David Molk, and right guard Patrick Omameh. The depth across the board is very strong, and this should be by far the best offensive line Rich Rodriguez has had at Michigan.
I’ll have a breakdown of the defense either later today or tomorrow afternoon, and my game previews for the season will begin on Wednesday as we rapidly approach game day in Ann Arbor.
Thanks to a generous friend with an extra ticket, I was able to attend Michigan’s scrimmage today. No pictures or video were allowed in the stadium, and I won’t comment on specific schemes or formations, but here are a few player-specific notes from my view in the box seats — please keep in mind that these are one person’s observations of one scrimmage from high up in the stadium:
Unless something crazy happens between now and September 4, Denard Robinson is your clear starter at quarterback. The quarterbacks weren’t live today, but Robinson still managed to carve up the second-team defense (running the first-team offense, of course) with his legs and his arm. His made good decisions with the ball and his passes were on the money, and he took a QB draw 40+ yards to the house — only Denard makes that play, and he made it look easy.
Devin Gardner, running mostly with the twos, looked at times like a seasoned veteran, but he had a couple throws — including an ugly interception to Marvin Robinson — that reminded everyone he is just a freshman. His natural ability could lead to him seeing the field this year, but I think it’s safe to say he’s probably a year away from really pushing for the starting job. Really like his poise in the pocked and running ability, however, and it would have been interesting to see what he could have done if the quarterbacks were live. Tate Forcier started with the threes but saw snaps with the ones and twos as well — he looked solid throwing the ball, but made a couple poor reads on zone running plays.
It was great to see Vincent Smith out there running with the first-team offense, and he looks 100% healthy — the coaching staff even put him back to return a kickoff, which has to be a good sign about both Smith’s and the coaching staff’s confidence in his knee being back to normal. He did fumble after getting cracked on a reception (didn’t see who made the hit, but it was a good one). The most impressive back, however, may have been Stephen Hopkins, who has dropped some weight since the spring and looked much quicker while still running through tackles. I didn’t think he’d be more than a situational back this fall, but after seeing him today I think he has a real shot at not only being in the rotation, but starting.
Kelvin Grady had a very impressive day, making some great catches on seam routes from the slot, getting a lot of yards after the catch on screen plays, and scoring a touchdown on an end-around. He should have an impact this fall from a number of positions on the field. On the flip side of that coin, Terrence Robinson struggled with drops all day — I’d be surprised if he sees much time at receiver or punt returner if those issues continue. Jerald Robinson showed the most promise of the freshmen wideouts, and Je’Ron Stokes had a couple nice catches as well.
On defense, I was most impressed with the play of Mark Moundros, who showed good instincts in the run game and had a couple really nice hits — he was playing alongside Obi Ezeh with the ones, with Jonas Mouton sitting out in a green jersey. Interestingly, it was Moundros playing in the middle with Ezeh at WLB. Still not sure how I feel about a converted fullback sliding into the starting lineup, but if Moundros beats out Ezeh at MLB, it’s because he earned it. Jibreel Black also made some nice plays — he could be a guy who contributes right away as a pass rusher. Also, his physical resemblance to Brandon Graham when he’s in a uniform and pads is eerie.
J.T. Floyd and James Rogers were the cornerbacks on the first-team defense. Floyd looked solid, but Rogers got picked on a couple times and got hit with a pass interference flag after getting beat deep by Jerald Robinson. The secondary in general looked very suspect — they were playing a lot of soft zones and gave up too much underneath and up the middle. The good news is they didn’t give up any bombs if you exclude the flag on Rogers, but the offense moved the ball pretty easily through the air.
From the few kicks we were able to see, Brendan Gibbons looked like the best kicker, but he still has to get more consistent from inside 40 yards — just can’t afford to miss those kicks. Will Hagerup had an up-and-down day punting the ball — had a couple that traveled around 50 yards in the air, but also had some 30-yard kicks. The kicking game could be an adventure this season.
One last note: Take this for what it’s worth, but I didn’t see Austin White out there in uniform today, and he definitely didn’t see any playing time. Not sure what his status is with the team, and I’ll have updates when there’s some news to report there.
For more, make sure to follow me on Twitter, where I posted my initial thoughts on the scrimmage, and make sure to check back to the blog for more season preview content as we get closer to kickoff. Your thoughts and questions, as always, are welcome in the comments.
As I write this, I can hear the Michigan Drumline practicing just a block away in front of Revelli Hall, another sign that football is just around the corner. Despite being less than three weeks away from kicking off against UConn, Michigan still has an unresolved quarterback situation, a phenomenon Wolverine fans have become accustomed to in the Rich Rodriguez era. Today, the focus is on the quarterbacks in the first of my position previews for the 2010 season:
Returning Player Stats:
The Projected Starter: There is still a long way to go before quarterback competition is resolved, but since his outstanding performance in the spring it has become clear that this job is now sophomore Denard Robinson’s to lose. Robinson’s rapid improvement as a passer after completing just 14 of 31 pass attempts in 2009 has allowed him to leapfrog incumbent starter Tate Forcier, but it’s his running ability that has really allowed him to separate himself from the pack. Robinson has the potential to be a Pat White-type weapon if he can prove he is a threat as a passer, and his game-breaking speed makes him the ideal player to run Rich Rodriguez’s zone read offense. He has the potential to be a truly special player, but Michigan fans won’t be completely at ease with “Shoelace” taking first-team snaps until he can show his practice improvements will translate to the big stage. With a full year at Michigan under his belt, I expect Robinson will be a completely different player — and a major contributor — in 2010.
The Competition: Tate Forcier started all 12 games as a true freshman last fall, and despite battling a shoulder injury for much of the season his final numbers compared favorably with other high-profile true freshmen starters. After an inconsistent spring and several missed summer workouts, however, Forcier will have to prove he is dedicated enough to earn the trust of his teammates and improve upon a rocky finish to 2009. Forcier is by far the most polished passer on the roster, but he must take care of the ball better or he will cede his starting job to a player with a higher athletic ceiling — Forcier may be nimble, but his athleticism isn’t in the same league as Robinson’s or freshman Devin Gardner’s. His leadership and mental makeup will be tested heavily this fall, especially if he can’t win the starting job in fall camp, and how he responds will play a big part in how his career plays out in Ann Arbor.
The Dark Horse: Devin Gardner, Rivals.com’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the class of 2010, enters his freshman season at Michigan with a boatload of hype after a stellar high school career at nearby Inkster. Although many hoped that Gardner would redshirt this fall to learn the offense and put an extra year of eligibility between himself and the two sophomores, it appears the early enrollee is very much in the mix to earn playing time this year. Gardner has earned praise for his hard work and dedication in the spring and summer, and while his mechanics may still need work, he is a very gifted athlete who also put up great passing numbers at the prep level — if Gardner sees the field this fall, it will be because he is a true dual-threat quarterback. The only thing holding Gardner back may be his age, as the coaching staff may be hesitant to start another freshman in a make-or-break year for the team. The focus has been on Forcier and Robinson, but Gardner may very well have the most talent of any Wolverine quarterback, and he could give the staff no choice but to play him if he can pick up the playbook quickly.
Outlook: With three very viable candidates to start this fall, the competition to see snaps at QB will be fierce, and that should only raise the level of play Michigan gets out of the position in 2010. With a talented and experienced offensive line and a bevy of weapons at the skill positions, whoever starts at quarterback should have no problem putting points on the board. If the team can limit the mental errors that led to an ugly -12 turnover margin in 2009, Michigan should be in very good shape at the position this year and in the future — the only question is who will be the man to lead the team come September. My guess is Robinson, but anything can happen over the next few weeks.
Yesterday I posted the five players with the most to gain in Michigan’s fall camp, which kicks off in just three days. Of course, when you have players potentially moving up the depth chart, others are faced with taking on a diminished role, so today the focus will be on the players who will have an eye on the rear-view mirror when fall practices begin Monday:
Tate Forcier, Soph. QB: Fellow sophomore quarterbackDenard Robinson topped yesterday’s list, so it is only fitting that last year’s starter leads off today’s. Robinson appeared to hold the edge in the QB race after a strong spring performance that ended with him running the first-team offense in the spring game, and the stark contrast in media day comments about the two quarterbacks leads one to believe Forcier has some work to do if he wants to keep his starting job. The task could be very difficult for Forcier as he not only has to show strides on the field, but also regain the trust of his teammates after less-than-stellar attendance at voluntary summer workouts. Forcier has shown the ability to be a very good collegiate quarterback — now he has to show the work ethic necessary to be good on a consistent basis and the leadership expected from the chief signal-caller.
Obi Ezeh, RS Sr. LB: The embattled three-year starter topped this list in the spring, and the pressure remains on Ezeh to prove he can be a solid starter at middle linebacker this fall. After falling well short of expectations the past two seasons, and with talented linebackers like Kenny Demens and J.B. Fitzgerald (who is practicing at OLB but has experience in the middle) each entering their third year in the program, Ezeh will have to perform if he wants to finish his career as a starter. The fact that senior Mark Moundros was moved from fullback to middle linebacker in the spring says a lot about the uncertainty at the position, and the coaches showed a willingness to shake things up when they benched Ezeh during the 2009 season because of ineffective play. This is his last shot, and he knows it — now it’s time to deliver or see if one of the other players can provide steady play in the middle.
Vlad Emilien, Soph. FS: The former four-star recruit was expected to make a strong push for the starting free safety spot after spending much of 2009 still recovering from a high school knee injury, but instead redshirt freshman Cameron Gordon moved from wideout to safety and was the breakout star of spring practice. After burning his redshirt on special teams last year, Emilien is faced with looking up the depth chart at a guy with more eligibility — he’ll have to prove he’s fully recovered from that torn ACL and comfortable knowing the defense if he wants to pass Gordon and see action on more than just special teams again in 2010.
Darryl Stonum, Jr. WR: Fans expected a breakout season from the former four-star prospect in 2009, and while he showed he could be an explosive kick returner, Stonum’s performance at receiver (13 catches, 199 yards, one TD) could only be described as a disappointment. While Michigan is very young at outside receiver, they do have a number of talented slots — if Stonum doesn’t display the game-breaking ability expected of him when he came to Ann Arbor, slot receiver Roy Roundtree could see an increased role on the outside, and underclassmen like sophomore Je’Ron Stokes and freshmen Jerald Robinson and Ricardo Miller could also push for playing time. This is likely a make-or-break year for Stonum as a receiver — if he can’t prove he can produce in his third season, he’ll likely have to move aside as the underclassmen get some experience under their belts.
Vincent Smith, Soph. RB: This isn’t as much a reflection on Smith as it is the situation at running back — with Smith still recovering from a torn ACL, Michael Shaw (if eligible), Michael Cox, and Fitzgerald Toussaint will battle in fall camp to prove that they deserve to be the guy at running back. Smith is expected to be 100% healthy for the season opener, but it’s impossible to tell how well a running back will bounce back from a major knee injury until he hits the field. Smith will have to show he’s fully back and ready to perform at a high level if he hopes to fend off the talented backs waiting behind him on the depth chart. It’s never fun to see a player lose his job because of an injury, but it’s a part of football (see: Tom Brady/Drew Bledsoe) — either Smith will prove he’s ready to build on a promising freshman season, or somebody else will get a their shot to prove they can start and excel.
That’s all for this week. Make sure to check back on Monday, when I’ll be taking a look at the true freshmen with the best chance to make an early impact in 2010.
Troy Woolfolk has proven to be a very interesting character over the past couple years — he even admits to having a split personality named “T-Wolf” — and yesterday, well, one of his personalities decided to keep it very, very real:
“Denard has been out there through the thick and thin and been out there all the time regardless if he’s hurting,” Woolfolk said. “And Tate, he tries to come out, but he’s not as consistent as Denard is. And that’s allowed Denard to jump a little bit ahead of Tate and I think that Tate’s going to have to do a lot of work to catch back up to Denard in camp this year.”
…
“I personally have a lack of respect for [players who don't show up to voluntary workouts],” Woolfolk said. “The outlook on them is kind of diseased. Like you don’t want to be hanging around those people because they have bad work ethic. But at the same time, it’s my role to try to persuade them to come out more.”
According to Woolfolk, Forcier hasn’t shown up to as many workouts as he and the other seniors feel he should have, and Woolfolk said it’s hurting his teammates’ perception of their signal caller.
“The only reason he’s not really labeled as diseased is because of the way he was able to carry the team last year before we started losing. People still trust him a little bit, but he’s starting to lose that trust.”
It is worth noting here that Woolfolk later released this statement via his Twitter page (which is protected; quote via Dr. Saturday): “A story was written about me putting Tate in a negative aspect. This was phrased wrongly and is not the truth. I think Tate is a great player.” While I believe Woolfolk was being truthful (and a good teammate) in his retraction, it’s tough to ignore the words that came out of his mouth at media day, especially when those words fall in line with long-standing message board rumblings that Forcier has not been 100% dedicated since the end of last season.
The question stands, then: what should we take out of Woolfolk’s statement, and how concerned should we be about the quarterback situation? First, the good news we can take out of this:
Although most of the fallout from Woolfolk’s quotes center around Forcier, this does reflect very well upon Denard Robinson. We all got to see the huge strides Shoelace has made since last season during his stellar performance in the spring game, and it is clear that he is doing everything within his power to win the starting job and be the best player he can be for Michigan. That effort is not lost on his teammates, and the sophomore has now carved out a leadership role that a good team needs from their field general. Just check out this quote from senior guard Stephen Schilling: “He’s definitely taken on some leadership,” fifth-year senior offensive lineman Steve Schilling said. “He’s there every day working hard. He’s been a guy that doesn’t complain. He makes you want to play for him, and he has those qualities to be a special leader and a special quarterback.” That’s a great sign for not just Robinson, but the whole team.
Woolfolk’s Twitter retraction aside, there’s no way that these words escaped the ear of Tate Forcier, and the good news is it’s not too late for Forcier to take them to heart and do his best to regain his teammates’ trust (as well as improve as a player) — remember, he’s still only a sophomore. If anything can light a fire under a player, it’s getting publicly called out by a teammate, and how Forcier reacts to this situation will tell us a lot about his ability to lead a team. If he starts putting in the same effort as Robinson and earns his way back onto the field, we will probably be able to look back on this as a turning point in Forcier’s career.
I love seeing this type of brutal honesty from a senior leader. Yes, Woolfolk probably went further than he intended while on the record, but he is speaking from the best interests of the team. If the coaching staff is having difficultly reaching Forcier and getting him on the practice field and in the film room, it’s up to his teammates to see if they can provide some motivation. Woolfolk stepped up here, and it’s great to see a senior on a young defense willing to take on a leadership role, especially now that Brandon Graham is in the NFL.
The bad news? No need for bullet points for that: in a year where the program is in “win-or-bust” mode, and with a full-blown quarterback competition on our hands, it is very disconcerting to hear that the returning starter at the most important position on the field is skipping workouts and losing the trust of his team. There’s no way to sugar-coat the situation — even if Robinson was going to win the starting job regardless of Forcier’s practice efforts (and I’m not saying that’s necessarily true), Forcier would still potentially be one injury or poor performance away from seeing the field, and when he’s on the field Michigan needs him to be as prepared as possible. Skipping summer workouts and losing the trust of the team isn’t going to get that done.
I doubt we’ll hear Forcier (or anyone else on the team) directly address Woolfolk’s quotes, but come fall we’ll have a pretty good idea about who put in the work necessary to lead this team on offense. Judging from what Woolfolk said, we may already have the answer.
Well, this story is getting pretty old, but a third 2010 Michigan recruit has failed to qualify for the fall. Quarterback Conelius Jones will enroll at Fork Union Military Academy after failing to achieve a qualifying SAT score, according to the Detroit News (via a report from GoBlueWolverine.com):
Athlete/quarterback Conelius Jones, a member of Michigan’s 2010 recruiting class, will not enroll at the school this fall, according to a report.
Freddy Brown, Jones’ coach at Spartanburg (S.C.) High School, told GoBlueWolverine.com on Monday that Jones was denied admission due to his score on a standardized college entrance exam.
Brown said Jones will attend Fork Union Military Academy in the fall and will try to enroll at Michigan in the winter semester.
Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) was a three-star recruit who also received offers from Duke, Stanford, Syrause and Wake Forest, among other schools, according to Scout.com.
Although Michigan is certainly set at quarterback for this season with Denard Robinson, Tate Forcier, and Devin Gardner, Jones was expected to help provide depth down the road, especially if the team decided to use Robinson at another position (although that seems unlikely after Shoelace’s outstanding spring). Expect Michigan to make a strong push for 2011 quarterback Kevin Sousa, who has picked up an offer and appears to be the Wolverines’ most realistic option at QB in his class.
As mentioned above, Jones is the third 2010 recruit who has not been admitted to Michigan, along with defensive back Demar Dorsey and linebacker Antonio Kinard. Hopefully, he can make the most of his semester at Fork Union and join the team this winter.
I completely forgot about this in the craziness that was Big Ten expansion, the Demar Dorsey saga, and everything else that has gone on in the past few weeks. Allow me to quote myself:
It’s summer, the time when bloggers rack their brains for something — anything — to write about and college football fans count down the seconds until foot meets pigskin. So, welcome to my latest gimmick: The Michigan Football YouTube Bracket. I’m looking high and low for the best Michigan football moments ever captured on YouTube — the moment could be a play, a player’s performance from a game (think Braylon Edwards vs. Michigan State), a speech, whatever — and for you, the readers, to vote on the moment that stands out above the rest.
After receiving your submissions (many thanks to those of you who did email me or leave a comment), I have decided to break down the bracket into two categories: On one side, we have the “Game Performances/Game Winners” division, which features either outstanding individual games or game-winning plays for Michigan; on the other, we have simply the “Spectacular Plays” division, which is exactly what it sounds like — all the great plays that didn’t fall under the previous category.
Now that I have scoured YouTube high and low for Michigan highlights, I have formed the 16-video bracket. Before I start revealing the videos that made the cut, however, I want to highlight some plays and moments that didn’t make the list:
Michigan’s Final Drive vs. Notre Dame, 2009:
This video was barely edged out of the “Game Performances” bracket, and it may have been given a spot if the 2009 season had turned out differently, but I will still remember this game as one of the best I’ve ever attended. A beautiful day, a hard-fought, back-and-forth game, and a last-minute victory over Notre Dame — it’s tough to ask for much more.
Adrian Arrington’s catch vs. Florida, 2008 Capital One Bowl
This was actually Arrington’s second spectacular catch (here’s the first) en route to amassing nine receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Michigan’s upset victory over Florida in Lloyd Carr’s final game. Two hands for safety? Try one hand for awesome.
Michigan KO’s Kirk Herbstreit vs. Ohio State, 1991
I normally don’t revel in the pain of others — even Buckeyes — but since we all know Herbie came out OK, and he did yank all our chains with the “Les Miles to Michigan” rumor, well … enjoy.
Desmond Howard’s catch vs. Minnesota, 1990
One year before Howard’s Heisman campaign, he was still filling up highlight reels with catches like this touchdown against Minnesota. He makes pulling down the fade and dragging his toe look downright easy in this clip.
Bo Schembechler’s “The Team” Speech, 1983
This video needs no introduction — if I could have found a way to fit this speech into the bracket, I would have, but the categories didn’t quite work out. Even as a younger Michigan fan who grew up in the Moeller/Carr era, I can’t listen to this without getting chills down my spine.
I’m sure there are several more videos that deserved mention, but those were the standouts to me out of what was available on YouTube. I’ll begin revealing the bracket tomorrow with the 1 vs. 8 matchup in the “Game Performances/Game Winners” category, with the winner for each matchup being determined by you, the readers.
Remember the Homeland Security Department’s biggest PR move, the terrorist threat level indicator? You know, this thing. Well, I decided — in a desperate attempt to figure out what type of content to post during the slow summer months — to apply these threat levels (minus the whole, you know, terrorist thing) to Michigan’s position groups. In other words, which groups are the Wolverines comfortably stocked at, and which ones have you buying mass quantities of bottled water and canned foods to prepare for the football apocalypse? Over the next week, I’ll be placing each of the position groups into one of the above categories. So far, I have covered the “Low” and “Guarded” threat categories, and Today, we move on to the positions that fall under the “Elevated” category:
Quarterback: One should expect the quarterback play to improve for Michigan regardless of who wins the starting job, if for no other reason than that the Wolverines won’t be rotating two true freshmen at the position in 2010. In the best case scenario, Michigan will have two much-improved options at the most important position on the field, two players who can complement each others skill sets and allow the team to show multiple looks and keep the defense guessing. That, or Tate Forcier becomes the next Drew Brees or Denard Robinson becomes Pat White with a better arm. But that’s dreaming. In the worst case, Forcier plays like he did over the latter half of his freshman season, Robinson still proves ineffective at reading defenses and making accurate throws, and Devin Gardner is forced into duty instead of spending a redshirt year learning the offense.
Right now, it’s anybody’s guess as to what end of the spectrum the quarterback play will be at come fall — I personally think Robinson will have a solid season as the starter, and provide a big-play threat on the ground while still posing enough of a threat to throw that teams can’t just stack eight men in the box. That’s just conjecture, however, and the uncertainty surrounding this position puts it squarely in the “Elevated” category.
Running Back: There are two ways to look at the running back position as we exit the spring season. On the one hand, fans should be worried that the running game looked generally unimpressive in the spring, and no back stepped up and took control of the job in the absence of the injured Vincent Smith. On the other hand, Michigan gets Smith back in the fall, and there are four talented runners also competing for major playing time in Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins — out of those five guys, Michigan should be able to find at least one effective running back, right?
At this point, I’d say Smith is your likely opening-day starter, given his performance from last season and the lack of an outstanding spring from the other backs. There will be lots of other options, however. Shaw is the most experienced back in the group, and if he can stay healthy, he could be the type of home-run threat Carlos Brown was on his good (read: healthy) days at Michigan. Cox may be the best all-around athlete of the backs, and if he can get the mental part of the game down, his physical tools will make it hard to keep him off the field. Toussaint came in as a freshman last fall with a lot of hype after putting up ridiculous numbers in high school — at his best, he can be a powerful runner with breakaway speed. Finally, Hopkins will almost certainly see the field as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist, and if he can prove he can grind out four or five yards from anywhere on the field, that role could grow larger.
The tailback position is much like quarterback right now for Rich Rodriguez: he has options, and talented ones, but the team needs one guy (or two) to step up and prove he can be a game-changer. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until the fall to see if we have one.
Tight End: Early on last season, it looked like this position would be a very productive one. Then, Kevin Koger developed a case of the dropsies, as did backup Martell Webb, and the tight ends were marginalized in the offense. Both players return, as does former four-star recruit Brandon Moore, but the Wolverines have no other scholarship tight ends on the roster — not exactly a sign that the position will be deployed heavily in Rich Rodriguez’s offense, especially with the mass quantities of slot receivers fighting for playing time.
There is a lot of talent here, however, and if Koger gets a fair shot at ample playing time he could be a big factor in the passing game. Yes, he had a few bad drops last year, but he is also capable of doing things like this:
Early last season, Michigan utilized Koger on a lot of drag routes on zone read fakes, and those proved very effective when teams keyed on the run. I was a bit surprised to see Rodriguez and Co. move away from that strategy as the season went on, and would like to see the tight ends used more — I think Koger has the talent to be a real impact player and a reliable safety valve for whoever starts at quarterback. Two things must happen for that to come to fruition, however: Koger has to catch the easy passes, and the team has to commit to utilizing the tight ends. If those two things happen, this position could be a real strength for the Wolverines.
Punter: If you watched the special teams portion of the spring game, you witnessed one of the most horrific punting exhibitions in collegiate football history (OK, that may be slight hyperbole, but it was bad). Michigan will certainly miss the departed Zoltan Mesko, Space Emperor of Space, and clearly nobody on the spring roster is ready to hit the field in the fall — in fact, if Michigan had to choose a punter from the guys on campus now, Tate Forcier would likely be playing double-duty.
The good news is this: Rich Rodriguez secured a commitment from Will Hagerup (left), Rivals.com’s #3 kicker in the country, who punted in the Army All-American Bowl. There is little doubt that Hagerup will be the starting punter from the moment he arrives in Ann Arbor — the special teams performance at the spring game dictates that much. The question will be if Hagerup is ready to perform at the collegiate level. Fortunately, there isn’t any difference between punting a football in a high school game and punting in the Super Bowl — the changes are in the personnel around you, and how dangerous the guy is fielding the punt. Unless Hagerup forgot how to punt a football, he should be fine stepping in and becoming a serviceable freshman punter with good potential. If he gets hurt, however, all bets are off. Take care of that leg, Will — no Michigan fan wants to see Forcier left exposed as the opposition brings heavy heat to block a punt, but from what we have seen of the guys on the roster, he is the only viable option if Hagerup were to go down.
Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be examining the foundation for the 2010 Michigan Wolverines: the five recruiting classes, from 2006 to 2010, that comprise the team. So far, I’ve examined the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. Today, I move on to this year’s sophomores and redshirt freshmen from the class of 2009:
Class of 2009 (Sorted by Rivals.com Rating):
The Upshot:
I’ve been doing “Who’s Left” and “Who’s Gone” for the last few classes, but in this case that seems unnecessary. So far the 2009 class has had just one loss: Adrian Witty, who couldn’t get academically qualified. So, let’s go straight to the analysis.
It goes without saying that it is far too early to evaluate a class that has all of one collegiate season under their belts, but the class of 2009 has already had a large impact on the field. That impact, of course, starts with the two quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson — both saw the field last year as true freshmen, and both showed flashes of brilliance while experiencing the expected freshman growing pains. Craig Roh stepped onto campus in the fall and immediately took over the starting quick end position, and is making the transition to outside linebacker this year. He looks like an all-conference candidate, and should be a leader on the defense for the next few years. Vincent Smith, surprisingly, was the other true freshman to have a major impact, filling in admirably when Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were injured and putting himself in position to start at tailback in 2010. Will Campbell, Je’Ron Stokes, Vlad Emilien, Brandin Hawthorne, Teric Jones, and Mike Jones all saw the field in some capacity last season as well — Campbell should start at nose tackle this season, and the other five will all battle for starting spots as well.
Several other players from this class will compete for snaps this fall after taking a redshirt year in 2009. Jeremy Gallon looked solid in the spring game and should have an impact in the slot and as a returner. Taylor Lewan has emerged as the leading candidate to take over the left tackle position, despite not playing on the offensive line until his senior year of high school — he could be a very special player with his huge frame and potential. Fitzgerald Toussaint is in the mix in a crowded offensive backfield, and Thomas Gordon has been a spring surprise at one of the strong safety positions in the new 3-3-5 defense — both could conceivably start, though Gordon has a better chance of doing so than Toussaint. Isaiah Bell has bulked up to 237 pounds and is fighting for playing time at linebacker, while Anthony LaLota is now a solid 263 pounds and could be in the rotation along the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Michael Schofield are both battling for playing time on the offensive line, but they’re each probably a year or two away from taking over a starting job. Brendan Gibbons will likely be the starting kicker in the fall, as he is the only scholarship kicker on the roster. Finally, Cameron Gordon has been the breakout player of the spring after moving over to the defense from wide receiver — he appears to have solidified himself as the starter at free safety, and could be the type of ball-hawking, hard-hitting player Michigan has sorely lacked at the position.
The jury is still out on one player in particular: Justin Turner, who has just as much recruiting hype as Will Campbell, didn’t see the field last year after arriving late and out of shape in the fall after struggling to qualify, and this spring has not been able to seize the open cornerback job over J.T. Floyd and James Rogers. Turner looks like he has outgrown the cornerback position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up at safety when this year’s crop of freshmen, which includes several cornerback prospects, hits campus.
Overall, this class has been a very solid one — Forcier, Robinson, and Roh provided early impact, several players will see the field in major roles this fall, and there is great potential for the future in players like Campbell, Lewan, Cameron Gordon, Vincent Smith, and more. After a three-year run of disappointing recruiting classes, the class of 2009 should be the one to lead the turnaround this program desperately needs.
With the quarterback competition between Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson heating up this spring, I thought this would be a good time to look back through the recruiting archives and see what happened to other teams that brought in two Rivals four-star quarterbacks in the same class. The list is rather short — between 2002 and 2005, just seven teams did what Rich Rodriguez accomplished in the class of 2008 — so let’s take a look at what happened to those teams and the quarterbacks involved:
Team/Class: Ohio State, 2002 Quarterbacks: Justin Zwick (four-star, #3 pro-style QB, #40 player overall), Troy Smith (four-star, #12 dual-threat QB) Outcome: Michigan fans certainly remember how this one ends, but people often forget that Zwick was both the higher-rated player out of high school and the first of the two quarterbacks to start for the Buckeyes. After both players redshirted in 2002, Zwick saw mop-up duty at quarterback in 2003 while Smith played sparingly as a running back and kick returner. After Craig Krenzel graduated, Zwick took over the starting job in the beginning of the 2004 season, but was injured with five games left in the season — Troy Smith then got the job, won four of the last five games (before getting suspended for the Buckeyes’ bowl game), and never relinquished his spot. The Buckeyes did briefly play both quarterbacks during the 2005 season, but by their senior seasons Smith was the clear #1 and ultimately the Heisman Trophy winner.
Team/Class: Florida, 2003 Quarterbacks: Chris Leak (four-star, #2 pro-style QB, #26 player overall), Justin Midgett (four-star, #8 pro-style QB) Outcome: Despite both quarterbacks being four-star prospects (at least to Rivals), Leak was the guy with all the recruiting hype, and by the middle of his true freshman season in 2003 he was the Gators’ starting quarterback while Midgett took a redshirt year. With Leak maintaining a stranglehold on the starting job, Midgett transferred to Eastern Illinois after the 2004 season, but could not stay academically eligible and eventually ended up on an Arena2 (the AFL’s minor league) roster. Leak would go on to lead Florida to a national title in his senior season.
Team/Class: Arizona State, 2003 Quarterbacks: Sam Keller (four-star, #9 pro-style QB), Michael Affleck (four-star, #13 pro-style QB) Outcome: Unlike the previous two examples, Arizona State could not hold on to either quarterback because of competition at the position. Affleck became a college journeyman, transferring to BYU, then Dixie State College, and finally finishing his college career at Utah State, all while battling injury issues and personal problems. Keller was much more successful at the college level, taking over the starting job as a junior in 2005, but he suffered a season-ending thumb injury after seven games. The next summer he would lose a heated quarterback competition with sophomore Rudy Carpenter, and announced in August of 2006 that he would transfer to Nebraska, where he would start in 2007 after sitting out a transfer year.
Team/Class: Oregon, 2003 Quarterbacks: Dennis Dixon (four-star, #2 dual-threat QB, #57 player overall), Johnny DuRocher (four-star, #17 pro-style QB) Outcome: Again, Michigan fans are all-too-familiar with the winner of this duel: Dennis Dixon took a grayshirt year in 2003, then spent the next two seasons primarily as a backup before earning the starting job in 2006. Although he was benched in favor of Brady Leaf late that season, Dixon would again emerge as the starter in 2007 and was a serious candidate for the Heisman Trophy before tearing his ACL against Arizona State and re-aggravating the injury two weeks later. DuRocher had a bizarre college career, transferring from Oregon to Washington in 2004, seeing the field for five games as a sophomore, then suffering a concussion against Stanford the next season and discovering there was a benign tumor on his brain when doctors ran a CT scan after the injury. DuRocher would have the tumor removed, tried minor league baseball, then returned to Washington in 2008, where he began practicing with the football team before tearing his Achilles tendon in a December workout. If the guy didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. He worked out for pro scouts at Washington’s pro day in 2009, but as far as I can tell he hasn’t caught on with a professional team.
Team/Class: South Carolina, 2003 Quarterbacks: Syvelle Newton (four-star, #5 dual-threat QB), Blake Mitchell (four-star, #11 pro-style QB) Outcome: Mitchell would ultimately win this competition, starting for the majority of his last three up-and-down seasons at South Carolina, but Newton, a great athlete but an unpolished passer, was the first of the two to get snaps at quarterback. Newton played wide receiver as a true freshman, finishing third on the team in receptions, while Mitchell took a redshirt year. The next season, Newton would play in 11 games at quarterback, including five starts, to help relieve the injured Dondrial Pinkins — this would be the only season Newton would break 1,000 yards passing. By the 2005 season, Mitchell emerged as the clear #1 quarterback, starting 11 of 12 games, and although he was benched for four games in favor of Newton in 2006, he would re-take the starting job that season while Newton finished his career as a receiver/running back.
Team/Class: Florida State, 2004 Quarterbacks: Xavier Lee (five-star, #1 dual-threat QB, #10 player overall), Drew Weatherford (four-star, #6 pro-style QB, #88 player overall) Outcome: Total freakin’ disaster. Both would take a redshirt year in 2004, and then spend the next three years battling to see who would suck less for a series of disappointing FSU squads. Weatherford would win the quarterback competition in each of their first three seasons, with Lee seeing occasional snaps (and a few starts) when Weatherford proved ineffective. Despite not accomplishing anything of note in college, Lee declared for the NFL draft before his senior season. He would go undrafted, get a brief training camp stint with the Ravens, and end up in the AFL2. Weatherford would finish his career as the Seminoles’ third-string quarterback after losing the job to sophomore Christian Ponder before the 2008 season. He is now playing in the Arena Football League (the real one!). Yeah, this really didn’t go well for Florida State.
Team/Class: Tennessee, 2004 Quarterbacks: Brent Schaeffer (four-star, #7 dual-threat QB), Erik Ainge (four-star, #11 pro-style QB) Outcome: Schaeffer made history in 2004 by becoming the first true freshman QB to start for an SEC team in 59 years, but was replaced by Ainge a few weeks into the season. Schaeffer would then break his collarbone, missing the rest of the year, and then transfer to the College of the Sequoias after his involvement in a dorm fight at UT in 2005. He would eventually move on to Ole Miss, where he started and put up pretty awful numbers (his passer efficiency rating hung right around 100, which is great in the NFL and horrifically bad in college). Ainge, on the other hand, had a relatively successful career, starting for Tennessee in every season he was on campus (only missing some games as a sophomore due to injury, when he was replaced by Rick Clausen) and was drafted in the fifth round of the 2008 NFL draft by the Jets.
Conclusions: Just by looking at this list, one thing sticks out: It’s nearly impossible to keep two very talented quarterbacks on the same team when they come from the same class. Of the seven teams, just Ohio State and South Carolina would keep both their quarterbacks around for their full eligibility, and the Gamecocks were helped in that regard because Newton was an NFL prospect as a receiver. When applying this to Michigan’s situation, however, it does help to remember that Denard Robinson could very easily play receiver or running back, which should decrease the likelihood of a transfer if he were to lose the quarterback job to Tate Forcier.
The good news is that, for the most part, these teams were able to find at least one very solid option when they took two blue-chip QBs — Ohio State, Florida, and Oregon all found BCS-level success with Troy Smith, Chris Leak, and Dennis Dixon, while Sam Keller, Blake Mitchell, and Erik Ainge were all solid quarterbacks. We should all hope that Michigan’s situation doesn’t come close to mirroring Florida State’s, for obvious reasons.
Overall, there’s probably not a lot to read into here other than for curiosities’ sake — every team is in a unique situation and, with such a small sample size, there’s nothing statistically significant to take out of this. Don’t be surprised, however, if either Forcier or Robinson transfers at some point in their career. I’m not predicting anything, and I sincerely hope that won’t happen, but that does seem to be what happens for a quarterback when he loses a competition with a player in his own class. Hopefully, Michigan can buck the historical precedent and find a role for both Forcier and Robinson going forward.
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