Matt Stafford improved mightily between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Georgia.

On Wednesday, I compared Tate Forcier’s final freshman numbers with those of several notable true freshmen starters from the recent past. However, 2009 is done and over with, and I think every Michigan fan is more interested in how 2010 will shape up than looking back on this past season. So, I decided to see how the same freshmen I compared Forcier to fared in their sophomore seasons, and used that data to project how Forcier’s numbers might look in 2010. First, here are the stats from the freshmen seasons of the players I compared Forcier to (with the exception of Robert Griffin III, who was taken out because he missed most of the 2009 season due to injury):

*Win-loss record reflects only games in which the quarterback participated.
^Average passer efficiency is calculated using the players' average stats,
instead of averaging the players' passer efficiencies, if that makes any sense whatsoever.

And now, those same players’ statistics from their sophomore seasons:

Now, I took the average stat lines from the freshmen and sophomores and adjusted them each to a 300-attempt season, for the sake of making them easier to compare, and also because it will come in useful when projecting Forcier’s 2010 stats (he had 281 attempts in 2009, so 300 is as good a figure as any to project for next year).

And now, using the figures from the above chart, I took Forcier’s freshman year, adjusted it to a 300-attempt season, and then used those numbers to project how he will do in 2010. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results:

For context, Tate’s projected passer efficiency would place him 12th in the country this year, just behind Pitt’s Bill Stull and ahead of players like Tyrod Taylor (who I was shocked to see rated so high), Riley Skinner, Christian Ponder, Colt McCoy, Darryl Clark, Kirk Cousins, and, well, pretty much the entire rest of the country. Will this actually happen? I’ll go ahead and preempt the laundry-list of errors with this experiment with a few bullet points:

• First, and most importantly, this is an extremely small sample size consisting of mostly elite players. I have no idea how to calculate margin of error, but I’m sure it’s astronomical for something like this. So, please keep in mind this is based on the performance of just seven players, and seven extremely talented players at that (potshots at Juice Williams aside, it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a very talented player).
• The largest jumps in improvement for the above players were from the quarterbacks who had very poor freshman campaigns (Clausen, Williams, Stafford, and Quinn), while the quarterbacks who performed very well in their first season (Henne, Pryor, and Leak) exhibited far less statistical gains (or even regression) in their sophomore seasons. Since Forcier’s true freshman numbers fall much closer to the latter category than the former, and no sophomore on the list put up the numbers that I’ve projected for Tate’s 2010 campaign, it looks pretty unlikely that he’ll improve quite as much as the numbers show.
• I have no idea how to factor in that Forcier enrolled early for his freshman year — the extra experience almost certainly helped his freshman numbers, but how will that affect his sophomore improvement? Will he improve less than average, because some of the learning curve was taken out in Year One? Will he improve more than average, because he is already ahead of where most sophomores are at his age? That’s a whole other study, and I enjoy going outside every once in a while.

Now that you’ve taken this entire study with a grain of salt the size of Jake Long, here are the things that jumped out at me from the above numbers:

• Even if you scale back your expectations drastically from what I’ve projected, Forcier’s numbers still look very good. If nothing else, this has really convinced me that Forcier needs to be the starter next season — the improvement from freshman to sophomore seasons is too much to risk starting over with another true freshman, and I think most everyone can agree that Denard Robinson is not a viable option as a full-time quarterback from what he showed in 2009.
• It was very interesting to see that, while completion percentage and yards per attempt both improved around 15%, touchdown passes went up an astonishing 42.6%. Despite all the statistical flaws this study has, that number has to be significant. It’s also very encouraging. Think about the freshman mistakes Forcier made — many of them came in the red zone, when the field is shortened and poor decisions cost the team, and the quarterback, what should be easy touchdowns. I think that one of the biggest differences between a true freshman and sophomore quarterback is the ability to make the right read in tight spaces, and not to force a pass into the end zone. There will still be mistakes — just take a look at the interception rate, which barely moved — but they will likely be of the less back-breaking variety. I’d be willing to bet that Michigan’s red zone efficiency — 116th in the country at 67% — improves drastically next season, and much of that improvement will be the direct result of Forcier’s maturation as a quarterback.
• I know this post is about Michigan and Tate Forcier, but take a look at Pryor’s strange numbers — his passer efficiency went from a tremendous 146.50 as a freshman to a respectable, but worse, 128.04 as a sophomore. Much of this has to do with how he was deployed as a freshman — mostly as a runner, with few passing plays and easy reads that were set up by the threat of him running. As a full-time quarterback, he couldn’t be sheltered like that, and it showed. Unfortunately (for us Michigan fans), I don’t think you can point to those numbers and say he regressed. He simply wasn’t a normal true freshman starter, and was more adversely affected by the transition to full-time starter, with a full playbook and the full attention of opposing defenses, than the other players listed above.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. I had no idea how this would turn out when I started crunching the numbers, but I found it very informative. I personally don’t think Forcier will hit the above projected stats (and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to sound like a raving lunatic homer by predicting such), but even if he falls well short of those numbers, we should see a good deal of improvement out of the quarterback position next season.

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Although Forcier didn't finish the season strong, his overall numbers still stack up well with other true freshmen.

Earlier in the season, I compared Tate Forcier to a number of prominent true freshman starting QBs (after five games, and after eight games). Well, it wouldn’t make any sense to have done that and not take a look at how he compares after a full season. Without further ado, here are Tate’s full season stats, as well as those of the players I have compared him to and the average of the listed players’ stats.

*Record only reflects games in which the quarterback participated

This may come as a surprise to anyone who watched the latter half of Michigan’s season, but Forcier’s numbers compare favorably with his true freshmen contemporaries. The only stat listed in which he finishes below the average is interceptions, and even then he is just below the cut. No, he didn’t match the outstanding numbers of Chad Henne, Robert Griffin III, Chris Leak, or (sigh) Terrelle Pryor, but, with the exception of Griffin, Forcier didn’t have the talented weapons (or offensive lines) that those players did.

What should we take from this? For one, Michigan fans expecting Devin Gardner to come in and take over the starting job are forgetting that the Wolverines already have one of the country’s most talented quarterbacks at their disposal, with a year of starting experience to boot. Look at the above list of names again — with the exception of Williams (and Pryor and Griffin, who are only sophomores themselves), every one of those quarterbacks matured into a very good collegiate quarterback. Chris Leak is arguably the worst of the “very good” players, and he won a national title at Florida.

Yes, there are factors that the numbers don’t show — Forcier’s penchant for fumbling, for instance, as well as rushing totals — but they still paint a pretty clear picture, and that picture is of a true freshman quarterback who had the type of year that usually leads to college stardom. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at what we can expect from Forcier next season, based on the development of the above players as true sophomores. Do we really want another true freshman starter next season? I don’t think so, and I expect the numbers to back me up on that.

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Win one for this guy, please. (No, not Tim Hiller, the other guy.)

It’s Ohio State week, when the records are thrown out the window and two storied rivals battle for pride and a year’s worth of supremacy. In that vein, I’m not going to look back at last week’s keys. Let’s get right to the good stuff:

1. Get on the board early — Michigan can’t afford to start this game in a hole. Playing from behind changes the way this offense runs (or doesn’t run) and could give Ohio State the momentum they need to blow the game wide open. I think Rich Rodriguez had the right idea last week when he elected to receive the opening kickoff. If Michigan can score first and establish that they’re in the game, it takes some of the pressure off of the defense and allows the offense to play how they want to. Also, an early score should get both the team and the fans into the game, which certainly can’t hurt.
2. Contain Terrelle Pryor — Duh, but it bears mentioning. Pryor is Ohio State’s biggest weapon on offense, and I’m most worried about him when he is able to start making plays with his feet. The defensive ends have got to maintain lane discipline, and the linebackers (and boy, does this part worry me) have to make sure to keep Pryor inside of them. If Michigan can force Pryor to become a pocket passer, much like USC did earlier this season, than I like the Wolverines’ odds of getting a few key stops.
3. Get Carlos Brown and Vincent Smith the ball in space — Brown showed an ability to take a screen pass all the way against Indiana, and Smith really impressed me last week against Wisconsin. With Brandon Minor doubtful for the game, those two will play a huge role in the offense. We know Brown isn’t much of a runner inside the tackles, and I don’t think Michigan is ready to rely on Smith as an every-down back, but both are capable of making big plays when they can get outside. I’d like to see a few screen or misdirections that take advantage of their skills.
4. Knock Justin Boren around — Self-explanatory.
5. Leave it all out there — A victory, obviously, would be incredible, but I’d love to see this game competitive for 60 minutes. The seniors — especially Brandon Graham — deserve it. Nothing is more depressing than a Senior Day blowout to your biggest rival. I’m sure the team will come out fired up, but they need to maintain that level of intensity for the whole game. Don’t leave any doubt that the team is 100% behind this coaching staff.

This is a unique opportunity for Michigan — nobody expects them to win, a loss only serves to end a disappointing season, but a victory means far, far more than just a 6-6 record and a bowl bid. I think the coaches and players all understand this, and we’ll see a team that’s motivated and hungry on Saturday. Will it be enough? Probably not against a team as good as the Buckeyes. Will it be closer than people believe? I think so. Ohio State 34, Michigan 27.

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Whiny, traitorious, punk-ass tub of lard.

This used to be my favorite week of the year.

The past two years, of course, have been filled more with dread and despair than excitement for the best rivalry in college sports. I try to temper my expectations, and my trash talk, so not to get crushed by another loss to Ohio State. They still crush me.

So this year, I’m throwing caution to the wind. My blood boils every time I see Scarlet and Gray, and a whole week of suppressing my hate is only going to serve to make me even more irritable. This is very likely my last Ohio State game as a student, and I can’t hold back any longer. Instead, it’s time for an airing of grievances, Buckeye-style:

1. Hey, Michael Wilbon gets away with this, so I’ll try it too: I’ve heard on “very good authority” that Terrelle Pryor got paid to attend Ohio State. He also has a horrendous taste in suits. And the throwing arm of a little girl.
2. Yes, Jim Tressel wears a sweater-vest, drinks Mike’s Hard Cranberry Lemonade, watches That’s So Raven, and wears Uggs. I have proof:
   

   But they're so comfortable!

3. Justin Boren appears to have dressed up for Halloween as some frightening cross between Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis, just seconds before Weisriguez contracted herpes.
4. Maurice Clarett’s prison jumpsuit is completely lint-free, thank you very much.
5. Presented without comment:

   

6. 57-42-6

Yes, we may suck, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to miss out on the rivalry fun this year. Go Blue!

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Photo by Said Alsalah/Michigan Daily

A buddy and I showed up at Michigan Madness a little after nine, just in time to catch the tail end of the skills competition and start placing friendly wagers on the three-point and dunk competitions. My friend bested me in the three-point contest as Manny Harris’ pairing edged Stu Douglass and Co. by one shot. However, I figured I had the dunk competition won, taking Darius Morris with the first pick, while my friend decided to go with DeShawn Sims. Needless to say, neither of us predicted what was coming next (via UMHoops):

Manny Harris proceeded to dominate the scrimmage (proving, once and for all, never to bet against Manny Harris, as I found out), but as the Crisler crowd streamed for the exits, the name “Novak” was on the tip of everyone’s tongue. Everyone from grade school kids to college students to ushers were mimicking the through-the-legs jam, and all left the arena even more excited about the prospects of Michigan basketball than when they entered.

Michigan’s absolute shellacking of Delaware State didn’t fall anywhere near Novak’s dunk on the inexplicable scale: DSU is a below-average FCS squad whose stated goal was to be within 20 at the half while collecting a massive paycheck. However, fans who sat through years of uninspiring 33-17 victories over MAC opponents could not be faulted if they spent much of Saturday’s game rubbing their eyes and wondering when their Wolverines had been replaced by the mid-nineties Florida Gators.

63-6? 727 total yards? On 72 plays? These are video game numbers, and unlike our SEC brethren, Michigan has never been a video game team. Yes, it is hard to understate just how bad Delaware State is, but I still can’t image a Lloyd Carr team handing out a beating like that, let alone last year’s anemic offense. I have seen Cone-to-Reyes, and it is beautiful.

The updates kept trickling across the bottom line, and they were good. 9-7 Purdue became 16-7 Purdue became 23-7 Purdue, and even when Ohio State closed the gap to 26-18 you could sense that it was over. Then Terrelle Pryor threw one last desperation duck, and Doug Worthington took a handful of Aaron Valentin’s facemask, and it was. And the headlines, the headlines:

Any Michigan fan who didn’t take pleasure in watching Terrelle Pryor run Ohio State’s BCS chances into the ground needs to learn how to take pleasure in wonderful things. I scoffed when Stewart Mandel suggested Pryor may have chosen the wrong school, and that the Wolverines may be better off with Tate Forcier at quarterback. Now? I would rather not entertain hypotheticals, but I can’t help but revel in the misery of the Pryor-led Buckeyes, and I would like to formally un-scoff at Mandel’s article.

For a weekend that looked to be one of the least exciting of the fall, I certainly had a lot of fun. Hopefully next weekend provides even more joy, whether the events that unfold can be explained or not.

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Chad Henne set the gold standard for freshman quarterbacks at Michigan in 2004.

We’re five games into the 2009 season, and already, Tate Forcier has led three fourth-quarter comebacks, quarterbacked Michigan to more victories than they had in all of 2008, and even had his named mentioned in some (incredibly premature) Heisman talk. Impressive indeed for a player who was taking snaps for his high school team at this time last year, but just how impressive is his performance? Let’s take a look at Tate and some other notable true freshmen starters through five games in their first campaigns:

*Quinn did not play in the Irish's opener, a 29-26 victory over Washington State

There are certainly some flaws in this comparison: not all the players were full-time starters at this point in their freshman seasons, and, due to the NCAA’s inane insistence on including sacks in a quarterback’s rushing total, I could not fairly compare each player’s contribution to the ground game. However, on some level, the numbers speak for themselves, and what they say is this: Tate Forcier is having one of the best, if not the best, season by a true freshman quarterback in recent memory. His completion percentage is up there with Henne, Pryor, and Clausen, and he far surpasses the latter two in both touchdowns and yards per attempt. The best comparison to Forcier is Chad Henne, and Henne had Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant and wasn’t running zone reads and breaking the ankles of Notre Dame linebackers.

There’s really not much I have to add to this. Forcier has been the most consistent performer on offense for the Wolverines, and has shown an ability to create plays and perform in crunch time that far surpasses most young signal-callers. This kid is special, and let’s not allow the letdown against the Spartans cloud that fact.

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Dave Fisher started at fullback for Michigan in 1965 and 1966, leading the team in rushing in his senior season.

I had the pleasure this afternoon of sitting down with former Michigan fullback Dave Fisher, who played under Bump Elliott from 1963-1966. Fisher was part of the 1964 Rose Bowl champions, led the team in rushing yards in  his senior season, and was named First-Team All-Big Ten and Academic All-American in 1966. I sat down with Dave today and got his opinion on the Free Press scandal, Rich Rodriguez, and more. Here are some excerpts of our conversation (which deviated off subject sometimes, but he had a ton of good stories, so it’s a very free-flowing conversation).

His reaction to the scandal: “I was concerned that it’s another attack on Michigan, which has always been a great place, I think tries to play by the rules. Rodriguez claims to be doing it by the rules, and he’s the one that knows. If he says, “Ace, I want you here at eight in the morning and I want you home at eight tonight and I want you to watch film all day,” then I think that’s a violation of the rules. If you go in there and say, “Coach, I’m going to be in here looking at film and then go lift weights,” and do all these legal things and then have whatever is in the 20-hour [limit] do that for the 20 hours and you haven’t broken any rules. If it’s peer pressure, your buddies are doing it and you want to do it to make it, that’s not Rodriguez. The real facts, we don’t know. What I don’t understand is why somebody doesn’t get a court order to at least see the transcript of Rosenberg’s [interviews]. Rosenberg, ironically, is a U-M graduate, and he’s stabbing his own school to put his own name in lights, which might end up putting his name dim forever. Especially is he’s wrong.”

On if he thinks there’s an agenda behind the report: “Oh I do. There’s a lot of people who hate Rodriguez. There’s a lot of people who love him. I frankly like him a lot as a person. I don’t have any problems with him.”

“Somebody behind this either wants to hurt Rich, or wants to hurt Michigan … When you ride so high, there’s always some people that want to put you down, and there’s some people that want to put you higher. Unfortunately, that’s life.”

On Rodriguez: “He takes it seriously. I mean, if you were making $2 million a year and going to get fired if these kids don’t do what you want them to do, you’d get upset too. He’s going to reap the reward and he’s going to take the heat. There was a kid that was a first-round draft choice of the New England Patriots, I think. He drops the ball and Lloyd’s the clown. [ed: No idea who he's talking about here, but the point stands regardless.] What mentality does our society have to blame the coach for everything and 18-22 year old kid does out there on the field? I’m more concerned than anything. If it’s true, it’s a problem, but I can’t believe he would risk doing that. He seems like a nice, ethical person. Do many people get as close to the line as they can without crossing it? Yeah. Do people look for loopholes? Yeah. Is he one of those people? I don’t know him that well.

“I can tell you one interesting story, though. I couldn’t play as a freshman. We could only play three years when I played. My sophomore year, I had a lab I had to take, and it could only be taken from 1-5 on Monday and Friday or Tuesday and Thursday. Back then, Monday was a slow day. You would go in and look at films of the upcoming opponent and then go out there and, they called it “break a sweat,” just run around until you perspired see if you had any sore muscles that you didn’t know you had. Then Friday, you just warmed up before the game. So I went in to Bump and I said, “Bump, I’ve got a conflict, what do I do?” And he said, “Fish, you came here for what reason?” I said, “Well of course, to play football for you and to get an education. I thought this was the best place for me to do that.” He said, “You just answered your question. You came here to get an education. You take that class, and I’ll get you through the football part of the deal.” That’s what he put his emphasis on, and that’s what Rodriguez claims to do, to keep these kids in school. Some of them don’t care about getting an ‘A’. I wanted to be an Academic All-American and was lucky enough to do it. But everybody doesn’t have the same goals I had. I had some friends who just wanted to get a degree and be a pro football player, and a lot of them made it. But, at this point in time, we need to believe Rodriguez. Now, if five real people come out and say he’s not telling the truth, then that changes the game for him, big time, and the university.”

On prior coaching staffs: “Lloyd had a bit of ethics, like when you leave here, you’re going to be a better person. Lloyd and Moeller and Schembechler all had a philosophy: you ask them how good this team is, and they’d respond, “Ask me in ten years. What have they done?” Did they make society a better place? Did they become drug addicts? What did they do? I don’t know that Rich would give the same answer, I’ve never asked him. I think he’s a good guy.”

On his hopes for Rodriguez and Tate Forcier: “I, personally, hope he does better than anybody can dream. Have you met Forcier? How much bigger than you is he? I saw that kid, they were playing two-hand touch, can’t tackle the quarterback, some big defensive lineman, 6-7, went like that to him [Dave pushes his arm out] and he hit the ground and hurt his wrist. When that guy hits him head up … whenever you set yourself up as being the number one running back, the number one passer, there’s a guy on defense that’s going to take you out when he gets the chance. Not violently, not against the rules, but he’s going to put Ace Anbender on his Anbender. That’s why they play. That’s part of the spirit of a defensive player. They don’t get a lot of accolades until they smear somebody, crush a quarterback. I worry about Forcier. If you look at Terrelle Pryor, he didn’t burn up the Big Ten last year. In fact, there were a lot of people … I’m from Ohio, so I got a lot of calls Monday morning about the Free Press and you’re in trouble and you’re going to forfeit this year from my buddies who went to Ohio State. There were a lot of people who thought the other kid, [Todd] Boeckman, there were a lot of people who thought that he should have been the starter. But I believe Tressel made the commitment, “You come here and you play.” He’s a man of his word I guess. I don’t know what that means about Boeckman, you come in here and you’re a captain and you don’t play because I got this kid to come in who in four years may flunk out, may drop out to go to the pros, or may be the next answer to sliced bread. Who knows what that kid’s going to do? I’ve heard stories about him, too, where you wonder if he’ll get them in trouble.”

On whether you have to bend the rules to be a winning program these days: “First, you have to come to the moral issue, which is: as long as you stay on this side of the line, is everything okay? You don’t like the rules, change them. There’s a lot of rules in society people don’t agree with. Some of them approach them far differently than other people do. To me, if you abide by the rules, and the rules are not appropriate, change them.

“You know, Michigan has been so successful that sometimes they are a leader in changing rules. When Bo came here, by the 70’s they’d developed a network where all the old players across the country … they write letters to kids in high school talking about how great Michigan is. Anyway, bottom line is they changed that rule, so alumni and ex-players can’t contact any high school stud they want to. And Michigan and Ohio State were really good at getting 125 scholarship athletes, so they’ve got 40 more kids than they’ve got today, and those kids weren’t at other schools. So, to level the playing field, they said you all can only get 85, and that’s why freshmen get to play.

“Again, change the rules, make them the same for everybody. It’s obvious Northwestern, which is one of the rungs of the Big Ten, or at least they were, had 7-on-7 football and a kid died [Rashidi Wheeler, in 2001]. If we’re abiding by the rule, there are people who will spend their life finding that gray area, and get as close to that gray area as they can. They want to go 78 when it’s 70 because they can get away with it. They don’t want to go 79 and get a ticket, or 80 and get a ticket. You’re asking a heavy-duty moral question that I can’t answer.”

On whether the scandal will distract the players: “Frankly, I think it will be a bigger distraction to Rodriguez, because, just like you, you’re gonna write an article or whatever you’re gonna do, you’re gonna work on it our you’re going to say, “Hey, it’s a beautiful day, I’m gonna go take my girlfriend out,” or go do what you like to do with your male friends, and it’s a distraction from what should be your primary focus. Some of the players will go, “Man, this is gonna hurt us more and I’m not gonna make it in the pros.” I believe that the three of those guys that left when Rodriguez came in left because they knew Mallett was gonna leave, and they didn’t think Sheridan and Steven Threet could get them the ball, so how are they going to be a first-round receiver choice? Now, do I know that? No. I heard that through the grapevine and through some logic of my own. Let’s face it: a lot of the kids here aren’t going to make $2 million being rocket scientists, where they can jump for the rockets and make it. Society sets these pay standards: entertainers make a lot of money, janitors don’t pay too well. I don’t think I answered your question. [Here I ask him again if the players will be distracted by the scandal.] I think you’re either able to focus on it or you’re not. Frankly, I think it’s more of a personality issue. You might walk out of here and your cellphone rings and some young lady you’re interested in says, “Ace, let’s go have a malt.” Well, you’re gonna say, “Sure,” or you’re gonna say, “No, I’ve got to get this thing done I’m working on.” Is either one right or wrong? No, but that’s all of our personalities.

“People say, “What’s it like to be in there with 100,000 people looking at you?” I can honestly tell you it’s no different than sitting here talking with you. All that noise around you, that goes away, if you’re focused. If I know they’re going to give me the ball and I’m going to run there with it, or I’ve got to block here, that’s all I’m thinking about. Everybody’s got their own job to do. I’m sure there are some guys that are not focused; they’re looking up in the stands to see if their girlfriend is there. That’s the guy that drops the ball, doesn’t catch it when it’s in his hands, that’s because they’re not focused on what their job is.”

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Michigan State reinstated tailback Glenn Winston following a stint in jail for assaulting a Spartan hockey player.

• MSU reinstated Winston following jail term — ESPN.com — Running back Glenn Winston will be back on the Spartan football team after serving a jail sentence for assaulting hockey player A.J. Sturges, who suffered a serious head injury. I’m all for second chances, but this seems to be pushing it a bit.
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• Report: Moeller suffered head injury — ESPN.com — Bad news out of Columbus, no matter who you root for. Linebacker Tyler Moeller was hospitalized weeks after sustaining a head injury while on vacation in Florida, reportedly from being sucker-punched in the head. He will likely miss the season. Also of note: receiver Ray Small and defensive end Rob Rose did not report to the first day of practice, reportedly because of academic issues. Small, who projects as a starter this year, has been in and out of the academic doghouse at OSU his whole career, and this might be it for him.
• Purple Mafia Profiles: Adam Rittenberg — Lake The Posts — LTP interviews ESPN’s Big Ten blogger, Adam Rittenberg, a Northwestern alum. It speaks volumes that Rittenberg is a Wildcat fan but I had no idea he was from the blog … he comes off as extremely nonpartisan.
• Weis won’t give up playcalling duties again — ESPN.com — Do I sense a little desperation? Why yes, I think I do. Charlie Weis has been given chance after chance (that Ty Willingham did not get, for the record) and has done little to instill confidence in the Irish faithful. If he can’t win with this year’s team, he should be on his way out of South Bend.
• Football is here! Our 10 questions for Fall Camp — Bucky’s 5th Quarter — Like Michigan, Wisconsin has a lot of holes to fill and questions to answer before the beginning of the season. The team that can answer the most questions will likely be the team that makes a push towards the top half of the Big Ten this year.

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Illini fans have reason to be excited over receiver Arrelious Benn.

With only a month (just one month!) until the 2009 college football season, it’s about time to continue my preseason outlook by ranking the top players in the Big Ten on offense and defense. I’ll try to keep my homerism to a minimum for this list:

OFFENSE:

1. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois — Benn was a weapon as a sophomore last season, catching 67 passes for 1,055 yards and three touchdowns, and he should be even better with an improving Juice Williams throwing him the ball. He may be the best pro prospect in the conference, and he packs a ton of speed and athleticism into a 6-2, 220 pound frame. Benn is the type of player who can catch anything thrown in his direction. All he needs is a quarterback who will consistently find him.
2. Daryll Clark, QB, Penn State — Clark will be a player to keep a close eye on in the early going — he bulked up to 240 pounds in the offseason, leaving many wondering if his bulk will hurt his mobility. I still believe he’ll be the conference’s best signal-caller. Clark may be the best pure passer in the Big Ten (192-321, 59.8%, 2,592 yards, 19 TDs, 6 INTs in 2008), and he can run as well (72 attempts, 282 yards, 10 TDs). He is the biggest reason why I think Penn State will take home the conference crown this season.
3. Evan Royster, RB, Penn State — Royster would be the second-biggest reason I like the Nittany Lions this year. He’s by far the best returning back in the Big Ten, having averaged 6.5 yards per carry en route to a 1,236 yard, 12 touchdown season in 2008. At 6-1, 209 pounds, Royster isn’t the most impressive back physically, but he finds a way to get yardage. Barring injury, another 1,200 yard season is a safe bet for the senior.
4. Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State — Pryor may not be the most polished passer, but he did a tremendous job of playing within himself as a true freshman, completing over 60% of his passes and throwing only four interceptions in 165 pass attempts. I expect him to only get better as a passer as he gets more comfortable at the college level, and he is already a huge threat as a runner (631 yards and 6 TDs last season). With the reigns of the Buckeye offense completely handed over to him in 2009, Pryor should improve greatly from a solid freshman year. Ugh.
5. Juice Williams, QB, Illinois — Michigan fans all know what Juice can do when he’s at his best after he set the Michigan Stadium record with 431 yards of total offense, as well as adding four touchdowns, during the Illini’s 45-20 shellacking of the Wolverines. However, he has to cut down on the mistakes after throwing 16 interceptions in 2008, an ugly figure that greatly offset his 3,173 passing yards, 719 rushing yards, and 27 total touchdowns (22 passing, 5 rushing). If he can eliminate the bad interceptions, Williams may just be the most dangerous player in the Big Ten.

DEFENSE:

1. Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan — OK, maybe this is a homer pick, but it’s not a stretch by any means. Graham was the lone bright spot on what was otherwise a terrible Wolverine defense in 2008, tallying 46 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. The Team MVP should be even better as a senior, and he could benefit greatly from a new defensive scheme that should call for more blitzes. I’d be shocked if BG didn’t break double-digit sacks for the second straight year.
2. Jammie Kirlew, DE, Indiana — Kirlew put up monster numbers for the Hoosiers last season, recording 74 tackles, 10.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Unfortunately, he plays on an awful defense and a bad team in general, and therefore misses out on a lot of the hype surrounding players on better squads. Still, he is a monster off the edge, and his sack totals are even more impressive when you consider that offenses can key on Kirlew, knowing that the rest of the defense isn’t much of a threat.
3. Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State — Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, led the Spartans with 127 tackles and 14 TFL as a sophomore, and should anchor the State defense again this season. Despite being a little on the small side (6-1, 222), Jones has been very productive in his career. The guy just makes tackles, and you can’t ask for much more out of a linebacker.
4. Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State — Bowman also had a very productive 2008, tallying 106 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, two forced fumbles, and an interception. 2009 could be even better for Bowman with the return of linebacker Sean Lee, who missed all of 2008 with a torn ACL after making 138 tackles in 2007. Bowman and Lee will give PSU the best linebacking corps in the Big Ten, which comes as no surprise for a school known as “Linebacker U”.
5. Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan – This may seem like a strange pick, but keep in mind that Warren’s 2008 season was marred by an ankle injury that never fully healed. The former Freshman All-American and Rivals.com five-star prospect is healthy and ready to go for 2009, and should be a lockdown corner for the Wolverines. He’ll have to live up to the hype, because Michigan will have three new starters in the secondary. Look for quarterbacks to stay away from Warren this season as they test the rest of the Wolverine secondary.

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No, not that we're making a good bowl yet.

Big Ten Media Day is on in full force, and Ruth Lincoln over at the Michigan Daily is reporting some good news. Rich Rodriguez stated in his press conference that Michigan will open the 2010 season against a BCS team, the first of a home-and-home series:

The 2010 home opener will be a “BCS home and home” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez confirmed today at Big Ten Football Media Day. Rodriguez said contracts are still in the works, but there should be an announcement in the coming weeks.

The game will be a bold move by an Athletic Department which has received significant criticism in recent years for padding nonconference schedules with non-BCS opponents.

The Detroit News reported in April that Massachusetts (a Division-1AA school) was an option for the 2010 home opener. Massachusetts was later announced as a 2010 opponent, but not the opener.

As a fan and student who has complained about paying for matchups against Delaware State, Eastern Michigan, and the like, this is tremendous news. Bill Martin sacrificed some cash (in all likelihood locking Michigan into seven home games for both 2010 and 2011) to ensure that Michigan would open up the renovated Michigan Stadium with a good game. My early guess for the opponent is Virginia (with Pitt, Duke, and Oregon State all possibilities, as Adam Rittenberg’s article suggests).

In other media day news, Ohio State was picked by the media to finish first in the conference, followed by Penn State and Michigan State. Terrelle Pryor is your preseason offensive player of the year, with MSU linebacker Greg Jones tabbed on the defensive side of the ball. Personally, I would have gone with Penn State’s Darryl Clark and our own Brandon Graham, but my Michigan bias and Ohio State hatred really are hard to stifle.

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