Well, it certainly wasn’t pretty, but Michigan came away with a win today in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, defeating ninth-seeded Iowa 59-52 in a game that probably shouldn’t have been that close. Early on it looked like Michigan would turn the game into a blowout, as the Wolverines opened the game on a 12-4 run and held a 28-13 lead partway through the first half. Iowa would battle back to within eight at halftime and close to within four early in the second half before the Wolverines seemingly blew the game open again, holding a 56-41 lead with four minutes remaining. Again, Iowa would make it a game, closing within five points and having several opportunities to get within one possession before Michigan finally closed out the game.
The difference in the game was the ability of Michigan’s stars, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, to get inside and either finish or get to the line: the duo combined for 36 points on 12-27 shooting, hitting 10 of 19 shots from two point range, and Manny knocked down nine of ten free throw attempts. Michigan probably would have been able to run away with this one if it hadn’t been for Iowa’s Cully Payne, who scored 25 of the Hawkeyes’ 52 points, including hitting five of ten three pointers. No other Hawkeye had more than ten or hit a three pointer (in ten tries), so it was essentially a one-man show for Iowa today. Luckily, Michigan mustered just enough offense to hold him off, or the season would have ended on a decidedly sour note.
No player notes for this one, since Michigan has another game at noon tomorrow against Ohio State, and I was watching the game while working on a paper (I know I said I would go to class instead of watch, but yeah, temptation kept me in front of the TV and I had to get some work done today). Harris did a tremendous job of lifting Michigan while getting very little help from the supporting cast: Wolverines not named Harris or Sims combined to go 7-23 from the field, and nine of Peedi’s 14 points came in the first 6:28 of the game. It would have been nice to see Michigan try to get the ball to Sims more — after his initial burst of points and his first sub out, he seemed to get out of sync with the offense and didn’t see nearly as many touches down low. I won’t complain too much, however, as a win is a win, especially come conference tourney time. The team will have to step up the performance, however, if they hope to hang with the co-conference champs tomorrow.
Senior DeShawn Sims has been Michigan's most consistent threat in Big Ten play.
Michigan tips off the Big Ten tournament at 2:30 today against Iowa.
I have class. And I’m going.
Before you laud me for my dedication to academics, allow me to explain. Simply put, short of pulling off an improbable three- or four-game win streak that lands Michigan in the Big Ten title game (and either the NIT or NCAA tourney), I don’t see a lot of ways this tournament can really help out Michigan.
The team’s best player, and the guy who will need to come up huge if Michigan is going to string together victories, is a departing senior. While I’d love to see DeShawn Sims’ career end on a high note, him pulling through with a huge tourney performance will only accentuate what Michigan will be missing in his absence next season.
With John Beilein holding out hope of a miracle tourney run, I don’t expect the rotation to change much (or at all), meaning we will continue to see Stu Douglass and Laval Lucas-Perry eat up big minutes while freshman Matt Vogrich, a guy the team may need to be a big contributor next season, will barely see time. This is not a criticism of Beilein — he obviously has to coach like this team has a chance to make a run — but just another unfortunate byproduct of a bad year, where the team had its back to the wall so often that it couldn’t take a look at some of its freshman talent without risking digging a deeper hole.
If Manny Harris comes up with a huge tourney, maybe he gets convinced to take his game to the next level. Very unlikely, I know, but it is a possibility. If he doesn’t play well, concerns about next year’s team, with Harris having to shoulder an even greater load than he does this year, will only increase.
Most of all, making a deep Big Ten tournament run, or even beating Iowa and upsetting Ohio State, will just add to the frustration of this season — it’s impossible not to feel like this team underperformed, and showing a flash of brilliance (or competency) after it’s far too late to salvage the season would just serve to tease the fans who expected Michigan to have an NCAA tournament bid locked up by now.
If Michigan loses, well, it’s the merciful end to a disappointing season, but it’s still a loss, and those never are good.
I’m off to class, where I’ll be refreshing my laptop to check the score every minute, and maybe even see if I can get away with streaming the game live without anybody noticing. I’m just not so sure my heart will fully be in it when I do so.
After a good deal of waiting and speculation, class of 2010 prospect Jon Horford, a 6-9 forward from Grand Ledge, picked up an offer from Michigan yesterday ($). Horford is a three-star prospect to both Rivals and Scout, and could be wrapping up his recruitment within the next couple weeks — he is expected to visit Ann Arbor in that time frame and possibly make a decision, one that would likely go for the Wolverines. He is down to a final three of Michigan, Cal, and Providence, but until yesterday only the Friars had extended an offer his way.
If, as expected, Horford does commit to Michigan, what can we expect out of him as a freshman? He has put up great numbers during his senior season, averaging 21 points and 13 rebounds per game for Grand Ledge — it’s obvious the kid can play, but a common thread emerges when you read the scouting reports on him.
But at the end of the day he just doesn’t “wow” you like you would expect a high-major big man to. He got ripped of several rebounds and doesn’t appear to be a tremendous shot blocker, despite being the tallest player on the court. He is very slender from the mid-section down and had to pull up his shorts after about every play.
The first thing you have to say about Horford, and something Dylan mentioned, is that there isn’t much of a “wow” factor. He’s extremely skinny (think a taller Manny Harris, but with slimmer shoulders), which means there aren’t any points in the game when he can just move somebody out of his way. Every offensive move is a finesse move–which isn’t to say they’re bad moves, that’s just the kind of player he is.
Horford told TheWolverine.com recently U-M remains his leader, though others continue to watch him closely. He’d prefer to stay instate and would like to play immediately – gaining strength should be his first goal toward that end. Expecting him to help significantly immediately would be a stretch.
This isn’t to say Horford would be a bad pickup — on the contrary, he’s a very skilled prospect with a nice upside and good bloodlines (his brother is the Atlanta Hawks’ Al Horford) at a position of great need for Michigan. Expecting Horford to step in right away and contribute, however, might be unfair. At 6-9 and 185 pounds, Horford simply doesn’t have the body of a Division I big man right now, and asking him to add 20-40 pounds to his frame while keeping his touch is a tall order for one year.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m happy Michigan has offered Horford, and I certainly hope he commits — Michigan is in desperate need of big men, and Horford could develop into a really solid power forward. We might just have to show a little patience as he grows into his frame and develops as a collegiate big man who can bang down low in the Big Ten.
Much of Michigan's success next season will depend on the return of Manny Harris.
I realize that Michigan has a game on Thursday against Iowa, and crazy things can happen in March. However, Michigan beating Iowa, Ohio State, the Wisconsin/Illinois winner, and either Purdue or Michigan State — essentially, what the Wolverines need to do to make a tournament run — goes beyond crazy and into the realm of the completely impossible, so I’m going to go ahead and address something more relevant: what will this team look like next season?
First thing’s first: I’m assuming that Manny Harris, who said he’ll be back next season in the midst of a year where his NBA draft stock has plummeted, will in fact be back next season. If he’s not, this article could be extremely short: we will be bad, there will be blood, and the hockey team will be our only hope of having a decent spring. Kind of like the whole Ellerbe era. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen.
Second, I’m becoming less and less convinced that Michigan will be able to land Trey Zeigler: he’s got great offers from better schools, and if he wants to stay close to home he has the option of playing for his father at Central Michigan, something that seems to be a very real possibility, or playing for Michigan State, only one of the best programs in the country. With Harris probably returning, and the Michigan program not looking nearly as good as it did a year ago, nobody would blame Zeigler for heading to MSU, UCLA or Duke or taking the opportunity to be the star on a team his dad coaches. In short, I’m not optimistic that John Beilein will be able to convince Zeigler that Ann Arbor is the place for him.
So, what does that leave us? Something like this:
Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center
Darius Morris
Stu Douglass
Manny Harris
Zack Novak
Jordan Morgan
Laval Lucas-Perry
Matt Vogrich
Tim Hardaway, Jr.
Evan Smotrycz
Blake McLimans
Eso Akunne
Jon Horford?
Obviously, the actual lineup could appear much different next season, but the cast of characters remains the same. Darius Morris will have the point guard position locked down, and Manny Harris will obviously be starting on the wing. Other than those two top-100 guys, Michigan will be rolling out a shooting guard who has completely lost his touch (Douglass), a shooting guard masquerading as a Big Ten power forward (Novak), and in all likelihood an untested redshirt freshman at center (Morgan, probably, or McLimans, but he’s more of a power forward).
Freshman Evan Smotrycz has a solid shot at starting, which could help this lineup immensely: if he can play at power forward, Michigan can shift Novak down to the three and play Harris at shooting guard, which would suddenly give Michigan a decent-sized lineup and great rebounding from their wings and guards, something the team will probably need given the situation at center. The added bonus would be being able to bring Douglass from off the bench at point guard, instead of leaving him in the starting lineup despite his struggles on both offense and defense this year. That hangs on a huge if, however, and that is if Smotrycz is ready to step in and play at power forward in the Big Ten.
There are some wild cards. I included three-star prospect Jon Horford on the above list, although Michigan has not yet extended an offer. I would expect, if Michigan loses out on Zeigler, for Beilein to grab Horford in this year’s recruiting class, and he could add some depth and possibly compete for a spot at the four or the five (he’s listed at 6-9, 185, so hopefully adding weight would be in order before he took the court next season). The younger Tim Hardaway is an interesting prospect at the wing — the guy is scoring like crazy in high school, and could be the type of instant offense this team has desperately needed outside of Harris and Sims the last couple years. Again, however, he will be a freshman. Matt Vogrich will have a full offseason to get physically prepared for Big Ten college basketball, but it would take an enormous leap for him to be a big-time contributor after spending the majority of this season riding the pine.
Maybe this year has beaten all the optimism out of me, but I have a hard time looking at that lineup and seeing a team that will be better next season. Maybe the system will finally take hold. Maybe the shots will start falling. Maybe Zeigler bolsters an already-solid recruiting class and adds another scoring threat on the wing. Maybe Evan Smotrycz is Kevin Pittsnogle 2.0. Maybe it’s just me, but it looks like Michigan will be depending on a lot of maybes if they hope to be an improved team next season.
John Beilein isn't the only one who can't bear to watch Michigan right now.
I’ll admit, before launching into this diatribe, that I did not watch a single minute of yesterday’s loss to Michigan State. In fairness, I was driving home from Canada for the first half, and by the time I got home — well, 14 first-half points didn’t exactly inspire me to flip on CBS instead of unpacking. It’s not hard to imagine, however, how the game played out: Michigan State completely overmatched Michigan inside, and the Wolverines couldn’t hit their shots. A quick check of the recap confirms. Now Michigan sits at 14-16, and if they can beat Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament, their season will almost certainly end against Ohio State in the next round.
John Beilein has, thus far in his Michigan career, avoided much criticism. This is in large part because, until this season, his team was progressing ahead of schedule: sometimes we have to remind ourselves that this very team made the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. This season, the controversy surrounding Rich Rodriguez and the football team has deflected a lot of attention away from the floundering basketball program. Games like yesterday’s, however, have caused Michigan fans to ask again a question we thought Beilein had answered with a resounding ‘yes’ last season: is he the right man for this job? Over at Genuinely Sarcastic, Brian takes stock of the program and finishes with a disturbing question:
Beilein, as a person, should be exactly what every Michigan fan (and every fan everywhere, really) wants as their coach. He’s a great man who refuses to bend his morals even a little bit. He refuses to delve into the filthy world of AAU coaches getting handouts, family members getting jobs, and all the other gray areas that accompany the majority of basketball recruiting. This leaves a huge chunk of recruits each year off limits to Michigan – and considering UM’s past, it has to be that way, anyway. So in that regard, Beilein has no peer. But as a gameday coach, a teacher, and from an Xs and Os standpoint – color me thoroughly underwhelmed. Dave Brandon officially starts his duties as Michigan athletic director today. It’s highly unlikely (and would probably be too hasty) that he decides to suddenly fire Beilein. But if you can’t draw conclusions about a coach after three years, you absolutely can after four, and I ask again – do you see any scenario where Michigan is substantially improved next season?
Even if Manny Harris returns, and the Wolverines land Trey Zeigler and Jon Horford, can this team overcome the loss of DeShawn Sims, the one viable post player on this team? Even Michigan fans with the most rose-tinted glasses of all will have a hard time saying yes. With Sims and Zack Gibson graduating, the Wolverines are left with just two returning redshirt freshmen bigs with huge question marks — Blake McLimans, a perimeter-oriented forward who wasn’t physically ready for Big Ten basketball this season, and Jordan Morgan, who sat out this season with a knee injury and just this week injured his shoulder. In a perfect world, neither of these guys would be forced to take on big-time minutes next season. As we keep getting reminded, this world isn’t perfect, and both will be forced into major playing time unless Evan Smotrycz and Jon Horford (assuming we have room for him and he commits) can both come in and contribute from day one.
I’m not holding my breath.
As Brian points out in his article, much of the blame for Michigan’s lack of viable big men can be placed simply on bad luck: Epke Udoh transferring was a bigger deal than anyone thought at the time, Draymond Green was wooed by Tom Izzo (and who can blame him?), Ben Cronin had a career-ending hip injury, Robin Benzing couldn’t qualify, and Morgan’s aforementioned knee injury kept him from getting valuable experience this season. This is how you end up with Zack Novak at the four.
That said, next season will be Beilein’s fourth, and there’s a very good chance we’ll be looking at consecutive losing seasons and another rebuilding project when 2010-11 is over. The pieces may be coming into place for a successful team: Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway are good prospects that fit Beilein’s system well, 2011 commit Carlton Brundidge is a blue-chip player, Darius Morris has made great progress this season, and Michigan has a shot at adding some big-time recruits. The hole in the middle can’t be fixed immediately, however, and unless this team turns into a three-point juggernaut — I’ll be kind and say this year’s performance makes that sound unlikely — we will be fielding a very flawed team next season.
Patience is key when rooting for a rebuilding program. Michigan fans are getting very used to being patient by now. But when does patience become a flaw, instead of a virtue? I wish I had the answer, but I don’t know. It’s Dave Brandon’s first day as the official athletic director, and I can’t say I envy him one bit.
It’s spring break here at Michigan, and I’m taking some well-deserved time off to head up north (yes, I’m a very typical Michigander). I will be back posting regularly on Monday. For coverage from last night’s basketball victory over Minnesota, make sure to head over to UMHoops. Have a great week, everybody.
Some chuckle-worthy news out of the Indianapolis this week: of all the quarterbacks at the NFL Combine, Jimmy Clausen has the smallest hands, at only nine inches. I’m not particularly proud of the following photoshop, but my friend Noah had the idea and it was too good not to use:
The last year, to say the least, hasn’t been kind to the Wolverine faithful. Taking lumps from all three major sports programs on a day-to-day basis has taken its toll on my sanity and well-being. Sometimes, I need a reminder that things could, in fact, be worse. Thankfully, there’s a school in East Lansing that has a long, storied history of making people in Ann Arbor thankful that they root for Michigan. Without further ado, I give you the Michigan State football program, edited for your viewing enjoyment:
Thanks, as always, to Michigan State. You guys really know how to make a Wolverine happy. Or, at the very least, less depressed.
[A quick note to MSU trolls ready to pull the "but we beat you!" card. Yes, you have managed to beat us twice in a row (for the first time since 1967, I might add). Yes, you are not facing NCAA violations right now. But nothing -- nothing -- our program has gone through in the last two years is more embarrassing than having 11 players plead guilty for putting on ski masks and ambushing some frat boys. Especially when the ringleader in the fight was a guy your head coach let back on the team straight out of jail before the season. Sorry. Your argument is invalid. If you really still feel like commenting, don't be offended if I don't take the time to respond. It's not worth it.]
There’s not a whole lot to analyze about this team right now: heading in to Saturday, few thought Michigan could hang with Ohio State, a team contending for the Big Ten title. They were right. The Buckeyes could roll out five former top-100 recruits and know that they’d get solid contributions from at least a couple of them (in this case, 18-11-7 from Evan Turner, 24-9-4 from William Buford, and 14 from Dallas Lauderdale). Michigan would try to counter with their duo of top-100 players, but with neither Manny Harris nor DeShawn Sims bringing their A-game, the Buckeye run in the second half to put the game away felt like an inevitability.
The frustrating part about this team is that, as far as I can tell, the offense, schematically, is working: Michigan has done a great job of limiting turnovers (just six this game) and getting some decent looks, but their shots just don’t fall (in this case, 17-47 from the field and 5-17 from three). I was arguing with a Michigan fan the other day about whether giving John Beilein an extension was a mistake (he said yes, I said no, for the record), and both of us agreed that this team would be really dangerous if we could just his 35% of our threes. This is not exactly asking the world of Michigan — shooting 35% from three would put a team at 144th nationally — but it’s a far cry from what Michigan is putting up: 29.8%, good for 320th in the country.
That’s what’s so frustrating about this team: in a slightly alternate world, where Michigan becomes just an average three-point shooting team (not crazy, since they shot 33.4% last year and brought practically everyone back), this is a dangerous team vying for another NCAA tournament bid. Instead, we’ve been treated to a lot of games like Saturday: 40 minutes of hoping the shots will fall, but knowing we’ll probably come up short. Can this season be over already?
For once, Michigan got some decent, balanced scoring, with all five starters breaking double-digits. Unfortunately, when Sims and Harris combine for 21 points (on 5-20 shooting), Michigan has almost no chance of winning. This team got about as good a contribution as they could hope for offensively from their role players, but the stars didn’t step up this game.
Yes, Darius Morris’ three-pointer was banked in, but he’s still making great strides as a point guard: 11 points on 4-8 shooting, three rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover. If he can continue this kind of improvement in the offseason, Michigan will have a very solid point guard for the next few seasons.
Novak and Douglass had similar games: decent offensive output mitigated by defensive struggles against bigger, stronger, faster players. See the above picture for an example of why Zack Novak is not a Big Ten power forward, and Douglass was absolutely abused by Evan Turner (who, in fairness, is one of the two best players in the country) when he was forced to guard him.
The bench, once again, had no impact: Zack Gibson had the only bench points, with two, to go along with four rebounds and three fouls in 11 minutes. Laval Lucas-Perry has mastered the on-court disappearing act, going 0-3 and not recording a single other statistic in 14 minutes. Ant Wright and Matt Vogrich barely saw the floor, combining for six minutes.
"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing."
- Bo Schembechler
“I ask no man to make a sacrifice. On the contrary! We ask
him to do the opposite. To live clean, come clean, think clean.
That he stop doing all the things that destroy him physically,
mentally and morally, and begin doing all the things that make him keener, finer and more competent" - Fielding Yost
“People come up to me and say, ‘I’m sorry.’ I’m not sorry because I received the greatest thing from the University of Michigan anyone can receive: a degree.” - Zia Combs
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