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Loading ...Finding Gold in a Turdpile: A Look at WVU’s Recruiting Under RichRod
This is Part 2 of my look at Michigan football recruiting and three-star and below players. For Part 1, head right hurr.
Unrated walk-on, three-star, three-star = SI cover.
After a look at Michigan’s three-star recruiting, it’s time to take a look at West Virginia during the Rodriguez tenure. For the sake of continuity, I’ll be using the same range of recruiting years (2002-2006) as I did for Michigan, and then going in depth into the 2007 WVU squad, who finished 11-2, #6 in the country, and defeated then-#3 Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. First, a look at the star distribution in the Mountaineer recruiting classes and Rivals’ team recruiting rankings (this pretty much covers the Rodriguez era, since he took over in Morgantown in 2001):
2002 – 28 recruits — one 4*, six 3* — Broderic Jones (4*), Fred Blueford, Akeem Jackson, Tywan Napper, Taylor Owenby, Erick Phillips, John Scott (3*)
NOTABLE 2*: Chris Henry, Adam (PacMan) Jones, Dan Mozes
2003 – 22 recruits — 10 3* — Chris Bassler, Vince Beamer, Keilen Dykes, Kayjay Harris, Devin Kirkland, Fernandez McDowell, Michael Meggett, Jules Montinar, Joe Sykes, Davonzo Tate, Larry Williams (3*)
2004 – 24 recruits — two 4*, seven 3* — Brandon Barrett, Raymond Williams (4*), Tyler Benoit, John Bradshaw, Louis Davis, Alton McCann, Darius Reynaud, Pat White, Pernell Williams (3*)
NOTABLE 2*: Mortty Ivy
2005 – 32 recruits — one 5*, 10 3* — Jason Gwaltney (5*), Quinton Andrews, Ryan Brinson, Jarrett Brown, Zac Cooper, Ryan Dawson, Ovid Goulbourne, Terry Mitchell, Rashad Roussell, Steve Slaton, Nate Sowers, Sabree Thomas, Steven Weedon, Reed Williams (3*)
2006 – 16 recruits — 10 3* — Franchot Allen, Ryan Brinson, Greg Davis, Eric Jobe, Anthony Leonard, Wesley Lyons, John Maddox, Chris Neild, James Thomas, Robert Williams (3*)
Rivals’ team recruiting rankings:
2002: 37
2003: T-46
2004: 47
2005: 31
2006: 52
2007: 23
Pacman Jones: Two-star to All-America honorable mention to NFL to crazy. The crazy was not the fault of RichRod.
Essentially, four-star recruits to Rodriguez were even rarer occurrences than five-star studs were to Michigan, and a top-25 team ranking was like a top-five ranking to Michigan. Despite this, here are the records for WVU from 2002 (RichRod’s second year) to 2007 (RichRod’s last WVU team):
2002: 9-4
2003: 8-5
2004: 8-4
2005: 11-1
2006: 11-2
2007: 11-2
Regardless of your thoughts on the Big East, that is damn impressive given the level of talent Rodriguez had to work with. Victories over Georgia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl confirmed that West Virginia was not just a product of a bad conference, but a legitimate powerhouse that morphed two- and three-star afterthoughts into forces to be reckoned with. Let’s take a look at the 2007 team, arguably Rodriguez’s finest. The 2007 squad peaked at #2 in the BCS (one week before being upset by Pitt in their final regular season game), and #1 in the coaches’ poll, both school records. They finished the year by shellacking #3 Oklahoma 48-28 in the Fiesta Bowl, and boasted the #15 scoring offense and #7 scoring defense in the country. Here is the opening-week starters for that team, along with their recruiting rankings (Rivals’ rankings unless otherwise noted):
WVU Starting Offense 2007:
QB Pat White *** 2004
TB Steve Slaton *** 2005
FB Owen Schmitt (N.R., walk-on)
WR Tito Gonzales ** 2004
WR Darius Reynaud *** 2004
TE Michael Villagrana ** 2003 (DE)
LT Ryan Stanchek ** 2004
LG Greg Isdaner (N.R.) (* Scout) 2005
C Mike Dent ** 2004 (DE)
RG Eric Rodemoyer ** 2006
RT Jake Figner ** 2004WVU Starting Defense 2007:
DE Johnny Dingle ** 2003 (Florida transfer, LSU & USF offers, SAT issues)
NT Thor Merrow ** 2005 (TE)
DT Keilen Dykes *** 2003
SLB Marc Magro ** 2003
MLB Reed Williams *** 2005
WLB J.T. Thomas *** 2006
CB Antonio Lewis ** (SCOUT) 2003 (QB)
FS Eric Wicks ** 2003
SS Ridwan Malik (N.R., walk-on)
BS Boogie Allen *** 2006
CB Vaughn Rivers ** (SCOUT) 2003 (WR)
Notice anything missing? I do. Four- and five-star players. There are none. Yet this team came within one crappy outing against Pitt of being in the National Championship Game. There are three explanations for this, all of which I believe apply to some degree:
1) Rich Rodriguez and his staff have an eye for talent that surpasses most of their peers.
2) Rodriguez’s spread offense and DC Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5 defense help players play above their natural talent level, and also allows Rodriguez and Co. to recruit players specifically for their system. The guys who fit the system may not be players who are skilled in a way that will make them highly rated by national scouting systems or other, more traditional coaches.
3) Rodriguez, the coaching staff, and Mike Barwis develop players’ physical abilities as well as any program in the country.
Rodriguez was able to turn players like White and Slaton, both three-star recruits, into All-Americans. Center Dan Mozes, a two-star recruit in 2002, was a consensus All-American and a Rimington Trophy winner. Owen Schmitt went from unranked walk-on to unstoppable human battering ram and NFL Draft pick. Was some of this luck? Of course. I doubt Rodriguez was sure any of those guys would become All-American-caliber players. However, recruiting is a crapshoot, and Rodriguez’s teams were able to vastly outperform their star rankings with a consistency that cannot be looked at as a fluke.
What does this mean for Michigan? First, chill out. Give Rodriguez a few years, with the kind of talent he is able to recruit to Ann Arbor (remember: Ann Arbor and the Big House, not Morgantown and burning couches), and I would be willing to bet the Wolverines are a perennial top-ten team and a constant presence in the national title picture. He still is working with players who were recruited for an entirely different system. He has a track record of turning programs around in a hurry. So, when he gets 15 relatively early commitments, and only four are four-star players, I am going to resist my urge to flip out, sit back, and wait to see the product he puts on the field.
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Great stuff, thanks for doing all that research.
Very good article. The only item I would point out is sometimes we latch on to coaches and declare their brilliance because of just one itteration. R^2 did very well when he had the right QB and RB. However there is precedence in the Big10 of genious coaches who never were able to repeat expectations.
The first case study is Joe Tiller. You could say he was R^2 before R^2 came to the Big10. He looked very good when he had the right QB in place with Drew Brees. However, since 04, you can’t really say that Purdue has been that significant.
The 2nd case study is Iowa and Ferentz. Iowa had that great 2 year run when they had the right QB for the offense, and the right saftey for the defense(Sanders). Since then Iowa faithful have been waiting for a repeat that has never happened.
R^2 has shown he can find gold in a turdpile once. However, unlike Tiller and Ferentz, can he do it twice. If he can’t then maybe he was lucky like Tiller and Ferentz were lucky. So maybe its easier to find gold in a gold pile or not picking a turd in a gold pile then finding gold in a turdpile. Not being pestimistic. I just don’t expect a slam dunk on marginal players.
I will end the note that some have shown that there are flaws in the recruiting labeling system. For example the best slot receiver recruit was a 3 star. That is a much more important position in the spread and you might have formations where you have three on the field. They are not considered NFL prospects where they still want the tall 6 2 plus burner who goes deep every play. Ditto on the tweener Deathbaker/rover/wolve back. If you don’t fit a 4-3 LB or a 3-4 OLB who is a sack specialists, regardless of your talent, your not going to get a high rating. Ratings appear to be based on pro potential, not whether you can maximize ones talent in a system